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Europa League, Round of 32, 1/16 Finals, Febr 2019

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    Worth keeping in mind as potential value bets. Going back a decade in this competition, there have been six previous KOs where the home side in the second leg lost the first leg by 2-3 goals and were then established as dogs to a favorite of under 2.00. Two of those sides won the second leg outright: Molde 1-0 over Sevilla in a round of 16 match in 2016, and Sporting 1-0 over Atletico Madrid in last year's quarterfinals. It's a small sample, but the away sides in this sample know they can lose narrowly and still advance. They may have rotated their sides, as well.

    The other home dog today is Slavia. There have been six other matches in this database with the same circumstances, having drawn the first match or lost by 1. With the tie in the balance, two of those six home dogs have won outright: APOEL 2-0 over Bilbao in a 2017 round of 16 match, and Dnipro, 1-0 over Napoli in a 2015 semifinal.

    Winning 4 of 12 at odds of between 3.70 and 6.00 is pretty good. Actually, one match in each small sample featured a home dog of more than 5.00, and both lost. So at odds of 3.70 to 4.99, home dogs have gone 2-5 and 2-5. If you took all 10 of those over the years, you won 12 units of profit.
    "Get on me, Bert -- I can't lose!!!"
    --Fast Eddie Felson


      Originally posted by Admi266 View Post
      Arsenal - Renne

      In my option Arsenal should easily win this one ...

      In the first meeting Arsenal has been led but the greek red card has made a difference in trending of the game and Rennes has managed to take advantage of it and win the game ... and even that hardly , when Arsenal side plays with 10 players more than half during the game + with own goal from Monreal ...

      All in all at their home pitch ... Arsenal should easily win this one and at least with more than one goal margin .

      Arsenal To Qualify with stake 8
      Arsenal AH -1.5 with stake 8
      Arsenal HT-FT with stake 7
      Arsenal win + Over 2.5 goals with stake 7


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