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Liga round 4, 29.09-01.10

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    Liga round 4, 29.09-01.10

    Not too much time to write, but some quick/shallow write-ups:

    Real Sociedad - Valencia
    Sociedad has had a rather slow start to the season, but they are slowly getting into the groove and took their first win of the season couple of days ago against the newly-promoted Elche side (3-0). Yes, Elche is rather a second division team and will very likely go back to Segunda after this season, but this bet is more against Valencia than it is for Sociedad.
    Valencia had a nice start to the season couple of weeks ago against Levante, but it was due to Levantes naive game plan and in reality, Los Che is in shambles and this is more clear with every match. In each match this season they have dropped a level, team spirit is low and coach Javi Garcia is already criticizing the management for not doing their job (of buying new players and building the team as was promised to him). He has said that with the quality he has in the team, it's not possible to get better results and that tells a lot ...
    So if Sociedad will play as good (or better) as they did against Elche, which I'm almost certain the do, I think the win will be more than 1 goal difference and I'm happy to take -1 AH at around evens.
    Pick: Sociedad -1 AH @ 2.0


    Huesca - Atletico Madrid
    Atletico had an amazing game vs Granada but of course, we can't read to much into one match. Especially against a small team who is battling on two fronts, but scoring 6 goals and having so much fun on the pitch from minute 1 was a joy to watch. And I think they will continue with the momentum and score at least a couple against Huesca.
    Suarez is an amazing addition to the team and probably just what they needed attacking/scoring-wise and fits perfectly to the dressing room imo. Atletico looked overall in great shape and I think with the addition of El Pistolero they are amongst the titles challengers in a season where there is no favorite imo.
    Pick: Atletico to score over 1.5 goals @ 1.9


    Sevilla - Levante
    Levante is an attacking side and while Sevilla can be a very hard nut to crack, I think on current form Levante is easily able to score a goal against them. That being said, Sevilla is very strong this season and one goal against them in Ramon Sanchez-Pizjuan is not enough.
    Pick: BTTS + over 2.5 @ 2.37


    Getafe - Real Betis
    Getafe is a well-known team with strong defense and while it seems Real Betis has also improved defensively, I still think this game has value in goals. Both teams come from a disappointing weekend (Getafe from a goalless draw and while Betis was of course underdog against Real, they probably feel hard done by the referee) and want to get back to winnings ways. Pure math says it will be a low scoring match, but when either of the sides opens the scoring, we can see a rather high scoring game here and with these odds, I'll take the overs gladly.
    Pick: Over 2.5 goals @ 2.46


    Celta Vigo - Barcelona
    This one should be an entertaining match and while Barca seemed solid in defense against a very disappointing Villarreal side, I'm not sure this game was a real indicator of their strength yet. Celta at home is quite good attacking wise and I don't think Barca, after such a weird summer, has drastically improved their away form. Yeah, they will probably win and Koeman probably has done a better job than most people expected, but I expect Celta to score at least one. Nobody doubts Barcelona's attacking power with all the names they have upfront, so we should see a great match between 2 attacking sides.
    Pick: BTTS + over 2.5 @ 2.05

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