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La Liga round 3, 26-27 Sept 2020

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    La Liga round 3, 26-27 Sept 2020

    Hi, there

    I know this forum is almost dead, but I personally still come here and read some of the old posts by litost as he is the example how one can succeed with betting when one follows a specific league really closely and as I am a big La Liga fan I try to do the same myself. I wanted to start posting post every week already last season, but personal reasons put that idea on hold, but now I'm gonna try to fix this and go ahead with the plan. I can't say I have watched La Liga week in and week out for the last years, but I have always kept eye on it and this season watched some matches and all highlights both weekends so far. It's gonna take years to get to a good level of understanding and analyzing with wisdom, but have to start somewhere.
    I'm not very good with writing either, but try to at least explain the bets with a few akward sentences, so here we go:

    Valencia - Huesca
    Los Che is a team to watch this season if you want to see an entertaining football match - their defense is very weak and midfield also makes childish mistakes/gives the ball away cheaply also(Esquerdo is especially weak imo) so overall it's very easy to score goals against them at the moment. Levante scored 2 and should have scored more (suffered a defeat only because of their own naive game plan) and Celta won only 2-1 although they should have won by at least 3 goals. At the same time, though, Valencia attacking power is quite good, especially Maxi Gomez who has started the season very well. He can score out of nowhere + has a skillful sidekick Kang-In Lee to assist him.
    Huesca on the other hand has had 2 very different games. They played quite well against Villarreal and scored a great team goal, but didn't do anything useful with the 79% possession against a well organized Cadiz team. I think the odds here for unders are so high because of the latter mentioned fact. But against Valencia, things should be very different and I expect both teams to score at least one goal with Valencia probably winning in the end.
    Pick: BTTS @ 1.9 (bet365)
    Lean: Over 2.5 @ 2.19 (SBO) or as possible with some bookies (including bet365): BTTS + Over 2.5 @ 2.6



    Elche - Real Sociedad
    La Real has not had the start for the season as was hoped for, but it is to be expected as the end of last season already showed some signs of it. On top of that, they have had a serious injury/covid problem and lost ?degaard who was their main architect (replaced by the brilliant David Villa of course, but it will take time for him to get into the groove). Of course, draw against champions Real Madrid is nothing to be ashamed of, but overall the flow is not there yet. But this week most players are back and team overall has had 2 games to get things going. Against them is newly promoted Elche team who are tipped to go down to Segunda and I totally agree - they just don't have the quality for Primera division. This is the perfect game for Sociedad to get back on winning ways. I believe they are totally capable of doing it and gladly take these odds for the away win.
    Pick: Real Sociedad win @ 2.1 (Coolbet, Unibet etc)
    Lean: Alexander Isak anytime scorer @ 3


    Real Betis - Real Madrid
    Real Madrid is lacking something upfront. Yes, the can dominate games and so on, but in regards of goal threat, they will struggle a little bit this season and it showed against Sociedad last weekend. Yes, it was just the first match of their season and Zidane experimented with the line-up and formation quite a bit, but I'm still convinced that Los Blancos are too reliant on Benzema form and will grind quite a lot of narrow wins this season as they did in the second part of last season. Pretty sure Zidane will go back to his old 4-3-3 as well for this game.
    Betis has really improved under Pellegrini, especially defensively (signing Claudio Bravo has helped a lot also). They look totally different team compared to last seasons - organized and knowing what they are asked to do on the pitch. And although they have awesome attacking players, it takes a bit more time to get the flow to start scoring easily. I think both teams will cancel each other out and we'll see a low-scoring draw or maybe a narrow win for the reigning champions.
    Pick: Under 2.75 @ 1.92 (bet365 and some others)
    Lean: draw @ 4



    Osasuna - Levante
    I think Osasuna would have been a favorite this weekend if the following 2 circumstances would have been filled: 1) Crowd would be allowed in the stadium 2) Osasuna best defender Aridane would be fit and ready to play. But neither of these are happening this weekend, so for me it is a 50/50 game and I will take happily Levante DNB
    Pick: Levante DNB @ 2.3 (Betsafe, Coolbet etc)
    Lean: Over 2.5 @ 2.13 (SBO)



    Valladolid - Celta Vigo
    Celta was really good last weekend, but we have to remember they played against Valencia and Valladolid defense is a different kind of test. On top of that Celta has shown some signs and given hope of improvement/playing closer to their potential every now and then the last couple of seasons and then falling back to being miserable the next game, so I think Valladolid +0 here with these odds is good value.
    Pick: Valladolid +0 AH @ 2.03 (Pinnacle)
    Last edited by Dinero69; 24-09-20, 12:28.

    #2
    Originally posted by Dinero69 View Post
    Valencia - Huesca
    Pick: BTTS @ 1.9 (bet365)
    Lean: Over 2.5 @ 2.19 (SBO) or as possible with some bookies (including bet365): BTTS + Over 2.5 @ 2.6



    Elche - Real Sociedad
    Pick: Real Sociedad win @ 2.1 (Coolbet, Unibet etc)
    Lean: Alexander Isak anytime scorer @ 3


    Real Betis - Real Madrid
    Pick: Under 2.75 @ 1.92 (bet365 and some others)
    Lean: draw @ 4



    Osasuna - Levante
    Pick: Levante DNB @ 2.3 (Betsafe, Coolbet etc)
    Lean: Over 2.5 @ 2.13 (SBO)



    Valladolid - Celta Vigo
    Pick: Valladolid +0 AH @ 2.03 (Pinnacle)



    +2.3 units so can't complain (leans are just informative suggestions and I don't play those)

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