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Japan J1 17.03.2021.

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    Japan J1 17.03.2021.

    Home Away h% d% a% jwb1% RawG aTG1m HpC ApC TotC
    Avispa Fukuoka Kashima Antlers 18.7% 20.8% 60.6% 26.2% 2.61 2.61 3.95 6.57 10.52
    Tokyo Shonan Bellmare 58.6% 22.8% 18.7% 27.3% 2.33 2.43 5.49 3.56 9.05
    Urawa Reds Consadole Sapporo 25.6% 21.0% 53.4% 24.0% 2.94 2.82 3.76 5.61 9.37
    Yokohama F. Marinos Tokushima Vortis 55.5% 19.5% 24.9% 23.3% 3.23 3.01 6.00 4.52 10.53
    Cerezo Osaka Oita Trinita 48.8% 26.4% 24.8% 26.4% 2.13 2.29 4.75 4.62 9.36
    Vissel Kobe Kawasaki Frontale 12.6% 13.3% 74.1% 22.0% 3.53 3.20 4.15 5.86 10.01
    Sanfrecce Hiroshima Shimizu S-Pulse 57.5% 20.4% 22.1% 24.7% 2.89 2.79 7.41 4.39 11.80
    Sagan Tosu Kashiwa Reysol 39.8% 26.4% 33.8% 23.2% 2.28 2.39 5.45 3.33 8.78
    Nagoya Grampus Yokohama 61.0% 22.6% 16.5% 28.1% 2.24 2.37 4.67 3.71 8.38
    * short v of model numbers, with % for h-d-a and jolly win by 1; raw and adjusted TG number and corner kicks (h-a-tot)

    A few interesting choices this round imo. Model has Kashima at 60.5%, we are a little bit higher at 63%, so Kashima -1 @2.18 makes the cut. With this congested schedule in Jap new season there is always danger of heavier rotations, especially for away teams in midweek games, but Kashima are an elite Japanese team, who for much of last season looked like clearly 2nd best (no match for Kawasaki in this league though) - but poor 1-1-5 start and some bizarre losses in last couple of months prevented them from qualifying for Champs Lge. They have big game v Nagoya next, so we can expect some rotations and perhaps after lineups get announced (unlike Europe/SouthAm, in Japan J1 and J2 you always have official lineups 2 hours before kick off) price can improve, but this is already fine for bet suggestion. Kobe-Kawasaki over 3 @2.00 also looks ok. Kawasaki are by far the best team in the league, they can rotate 5-6 players and lose nothing in quality, and in Kobe have an opponent who will have their fair share of attacks and chances created, so this should be a good game. 8 of their last mutual meetings, and 11 of last 12 ended over 2.5 line, 7 of those over 3.5 line, difficult to expect anything different this time, both should score, model has goals v high and current price is more than enough for us, would recommend it down to over 3 @1.93. Next one is Hiroshima -1/2 @1.93, they are one of many teams who have CL qualification as goal this season, they are well balanced side and should have good control over this game - would do this bet down to 1.87 (or -3/4 2.12). Shimizu somehow escaped with 0-0 v Tosu at home few days ago, in game that was thoroughly dominated by away side, in fact Shimizu looked like J2 material again, like they did in first part of last season. It could be just a blip, as they did improve a lot in 2nd part of last season and also started this one fine, but this last performance was just horrible, and unless huge improvement is made they will be in trouble tomorrow. Goals are also interesting, would like to get over 2.5 @1.95 for a shot, market is quite close. If not, low scoring 0-0, 1-1 or 1 goal first half and over 1.25 @1.91 as target price for overs. Urawa-Sapporo over 2.75 @2.10 is just about there, this price should improve a bit tomorrow so probably fine to wait, hcap for away side also looks tempting as it seems there is a bit of difference between these two, with former giants Urawa just not inspiring confidence. Actually it could get ugly for them this season, however going against them in this one unless it is -1/4 @1.95 or higher just does not feel right, and with price unlikely to get there it will be a pass on hcap. For all these games weather should be fine, sunny, pleasant temp and no rain expected.

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