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1/2 finals - 10.07. 20:00 France - Belgium

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  • #16
    I'm inclined to go against my instincts and go for goals in the Belgium-France match. Judging by the odds the expectation appears to be that France can contain the Belgian strike force, and WC history is littered with scoreless semis when goals were 'obvious.' But I have a hard time imagining a cagey start to this one, and can imagine both sides would be delighted to open the scoring and ratchet the pressure (and force the other wide to come forward in response. Over 2.75 is priced at 2.44 at the moment, but I'm waiting to see what the alternate odds turn out to be for team totals. Right now France is plus money on o1.5, and there's no line above o1 for Belgium. I'll do some mulling it over but I think a high score draw is possible in 90. Or I would think that if I hadn't watched overs in the semis go 3-7 the past five cups.
    "Get on me, Bert -- I can't lose!!!"
    --Fast Eddie Felson

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    • #17
      The more i think about this, the more i'm on France. Meunier's missing is a big blow for Belgium and it's bigger if Carrasco will play left and Chadli will move to the right side. Very often Carrasco has his mind to play offensively to self promote if i can say that, and forgetting his defensive duties. We will see with line ups but right now, every scenario that i have made in my mind with those two at those place is negative for Belgium. Fellaini marking Griezmann is not good because of height difference and the right side of France with Pavard and Mbabbe will have a party with Carrasco on that side.

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      • #18
        mind also that weather forecast is talking about "sprinkles" or rain from 10 in the morning till 18:00 at afternoon, so the pitch might be wet

        https://www.timeanddate.com/weather/...terburg/hourly

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        • #19
          Belgium is playing their 3rd knockout game in 9 days.
          France 3rd in 11 days.

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          • #20
            Lots of people flip-flopping with their views here which is an indication of how hard this game is to get a good read on; and sometimes a sign that the best bet is 'no bet'. I'm actually shifting more towards France now, but will await the lineups to make my final decision.

            Mariano's thought share on positional matchups is excellent and kind of concur's with my own. France has some key advantages in this game before the loss of Meunier, but his absence weakens an already dodgy backline. Let's not forget that Brazil could have easily scored a goal first before the OG, so it could have been a very different game for Belgium. I agree with a comment above that Belgium has probably been tested a lot more, but then that's largely of their own making and not because they've had to fight back against a superior/equally matched opponent. France for me have always looked very controlled in their games - even against Argentina - and look a strong unit that maintains good spacing all around the pitch. I've mentioned several times the weak side of Belgium being their right and this coincides with France's most dangerous attacking side with Mbappe. But we shouldn't discount Griezemann who is equally adept at finding pockets of space down the left side. Because of the slow movement of Witsel and Fallaini (if he plays) they will find it very hard to pick up Griezemann and Mbappe without slow midfield help and if it's Carrasco tracking back I really have my doubts. Again I'm waiting for lineups to find out. The problem with playing a 3 man backline with wingbacks is it often becomes 3 players defending the space usually defended by 2, as you want to stay close and close the gaps rather than spread across the field. Based on this I can see France winning the corner bet with the risk always being that they score early.

            Finally I think we'll see goals here so will be playing irrespective of lineups - Over 2.25 goals at 1.80 looks good to me.
            Last edited by latortuga; 10-07-18, 12:59.

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            • #21
              I don't see France as clear favourite for tonight match, but my idea is that Belgium can decide for itselves.
              My personally idea , compared the players is:
              GOALKEEPER: absolutely Cortouis.
              DEFENSE: only Varane (probably the best center after Thiago Silva and Godin in the WC) is at the same level of Kompany, but Alderweireled, Vertonghen, Vermaelen are class above Lucas, Umtiti, and young Pavard.
              MIDFIELD: Kantè-Pogba-Matuidi are good players, but the line DeBruyne-Witsel-Chadli has more fantasy and touch of ball. And Yes, Fellaini should suffer Mbappè but in this case I think there will be others 1-2 belgian player to give their "attention" to the new Pelè.
              FORWARD: Mbappè has scored 3 goals on 6 by France in action, Griezmann 0 goals (ok, I'm joking, but two penalties and Muslera, aren't real goals...), Giroud 0 goals. Pavard, Varane and own goals are others.
              Belgium has score 14 times (one penalty and one own-goal included): Lukaku 4, Hazard 2, then Mertens, Batsuany, Januzay, De Bruyne, Vertonghen, Fellaini, Chadli....who miss? ))
              I want to say that, if Belgium can stop Mbappè, France doesn't score (more or less...), while the fire-power of Red Devils is more various.
              Finally, give a look to this statistics: https://www.fifa.com/worldcup/statistics/teams/shots . For me, it confirms the type of play of both squad.
              COACH: Deschamps has more experience, but he has lost the finale of Europeans in front of his fans...
              Martinez not so famous, but with him, Belgium has played 25 matches, 19W - 5 draw and one lost (a friendly against Spain, the first match: the strip with no defeat is at 24....).
              All in all, my idea is that Belgium can score twice, and probably France one at least.

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              • #22
                Martinez vs Deschamps

                I read about the great coach of Belgium Martinez
                Personally I think that Didier Deschamps' palmares as international experience and successes are much better than Martinez
                Not to mention Didier Deschamps as a player
                Then Belgium will also win, perhaps for better players, but as a tactic, definitely better Deschamps

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                • #23
                  Originally posted by egomax View Post
                  I
                  FORWARD: Mbappè has scored 3 goals on 6 by France in action, Griezmann 0 goals (ok, I'm joking, but two penalties and Muslera, aren't real goals...), Giroud 0 goals. Pavard, Varane and own goals are others.
                  Belgium has score 14 times (one penalty and one own-goal included): Lukaku 4, Hazard 2, then Mertens, Batsuany, Januzay, De Bruyne, Vertonghen, Fellaini, Chadli....who miss? ))
                  I want to say that, if Belgium can stop Mbappè, France doesn't score (more or less...), while the fire-power of Red Devils is more various.
                  the attackers of France, excluding Giroud, are not pure attackers even if they make many goals in the clubs but above all provide assists
                  But they have fast wings and in the qualifying matches they showed a lot of speed in the restart
                  However, at times, due to the difficulty in concentrating in defense and midfield, Pogba does not seem to me at best
                  Of course a Belgium that allows Nainggolan to leave home ......
                  I remain of my idea that is a great offensive team from the waist up, has some of the strongest current players, but with defensive problems against fast teams and tend to sometimes underestimate the opponent (eg Tunisia 1st half and Japan)

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                  • #24
                    Well, at least Carrasco is not starting

                    Expected line ups i believe, let's watch a beauty now

                    I took Kante to be booked because he has no yellow cards as i wrote again... If not now against Hazard (what logic says to be the match-up), then when and against whom??? I just had to take that, even for the fun of it cause i can't see a DMC so "clean" jaja

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                    • #25
                      C'mon Belgium! Although France has a slightly upper hand for now.

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                      • #26
                        As a France punter I like that Belgium didn't convert in their first 15 minute powerplay, but it remains even for now. Just depends on where momentum shifts next and who'll be able to convert that ...

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                        • #27
                          Both semifinals will be hard. No bet for me until weekend. France should play better, they havent showed much except the game before quarter-finals.

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                          • #28
                            Originally posted by MarianoV6 View Post

                            I took Kante to be booked because he has no yellow cards as i wrote again... If not now against Hazard (what logic says to be the match-up), then when and against whom??? I just had to take that, even for the fun of it cause i can't see a DMC so "clean" jaja
                            I followed. Thanks!

                            Sent from my HUAWEI VNS-L21 using Tapatalk

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                            • #29
                              jajajaja i was waiting for that ONE game that he was gonna be booked and i got him!! Cheers mate

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                              • #30
                                If France wins this WC it will be a disgrace!!
                                They showed nothing in second half, parking bus nad fouling, playing dirty, lying on the ground, disgracce!!
                                MacotBet follow me on BA http://forum.bettingadvice.com/showt...=39806&page=34

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