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Group Qualification scenarios and last 16

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  • Group Qualification scenarios and last 16

    Since today is the last games, lets put down all the scenarios for all groups and see what each team needs. It's important to notice in case of tie, at which game fair play criteria (yellow/red cards) is involved. Check also referee's thread cause it might be important to see who will whistle where.
    Last edited by MarianoV6; 24-06-18, 08:25.

  • #2
    Group A

    - Russia are through and will top the group if they avoid defeat vs. Uruguay.
    - Uruguay are through but must beat hosts Russia to top the group.
    - Egypt and Saudi Arabia have been eliminated.

    Comment


    • #3
      Group B

      - Portugal need a point against Iran to qualify. Can qualify with a defeat if Spain lose by a bigger margin.
      - Spain need a point against Morocco to qualify. Can qualify with a defeat if Portugal lose by a bigger margin, or if Iran/Portugal is a low-scoring draw and Spain lose by no more than one goal.
      - If both Portugal and Spain lose the team with the worse result would finish third. If both Portugal and Spain win the team with the biggest victory would finish top. Spain and Portugal currently have identical records and are separated by disciplinary records (yellow/red cards). If this finishes level too they will draw lots for group position.
      - Current yellow cards: Portugal 2, Spain 1
      - Iran must beat Portugal to qualify, and could finish top if Spain lose.
      - Morocco have been eliminated.

      Comment


      • #4
        Group C

        - France have qualified and need a point against Denmark to top the group.
        - Denmark need a point to qualify and will top the group with a win vs. France. They will also qualify with a defeat if Australia fail to beat Peru.
        - Australia must beat Peru and hope Denmark lose, and top the Danes on goal difference.
        - Peru have been eliminated.

        Comment


        • #5
          Group D

          - Croatia have qualified and need a point vs. Iceland to top the group, though superior goal difference means they are almost certain of first place.
          - Nigeria must beat Argentina to be guaranteed going through, though a point will be good enough if Iceland do not beat Croatia.
          - Argentina have to beat Nigeria and hope Iceland do not win to definitely qualify. If both Argentina and Iceland win, then Argentina must do so by a greater margin as their goal difference is one worse than Iceland's. If the two teams finish with identical records, they drew with each other so are then separated by disciplinary records (yellow/red cards) and then drawing of lots for second place.
          - Iceland must beat Croatia and hope Nigeria do not beat Argentina. If Nigeria draw then Iceland must win by at least two goals to match goal difference, and if records are identical Nigeria would then go through on head-to-head. If Argentina win then Iceland must do so by the same margin or greater to guarantee finishing second.
          - Current yellow cards: Argentina 3, Iceland 0

          Comment


          • #6
            Group E

            - Brazil need a point against Serbia to guarantee their place, and will also go through with a defeat if Switzerland also lose by the same margin or greater.
            - Switzerland need a point against Costa Rica to secure their place but will also go through with a defeat if Serbia lose to Brazil. Should Switzerland lose by one goal and Serbia draw it will go to goals scored. If the teams finish with identical records then Switzerland would go through on head-to-head. If Switzerland are beaten by two goals they can qualify only if Serbia lose.
            - If both Brazil and Switzerland win or lose they might need to be separated by disciplinary record or drawing of lots for top spot or second as the head-to-head is 1-1. This would happen, for instance, if Brazil won 2-1 and Switzerland won 2-0 for top spot, or for second position if Brazil lost 2-0 and Switzerland lost 1-0.
            - Current yellow cards: Brazil 3, Switzerland 4
            - Serbia will definitely qualify with a win, and could go through with a draw as noted.
            - Costa Rica have been eliminated.

            Comment


            • #7
              Group F

              - Mexico need a point vs. Sweden to go through and top the group. They are definitely through with a defeat if Germany fail to win.
              - Sweden are guaranteed to qualify if they win or better Germany's result. If they beat Mexico and Germany fail to win, Sweden will top the group.
              - Germany must win by two or more goals or better Sweden's result to guarantee qualifying.
              - If both Germany and Sweden draw, the team in the higher-scoring game will finish second. If both draws are the same scoreline, Germany finish second on head to head.
              - South Korea must beat Germany and hope Sweden lose to Mexico to have a chance of qualifying.

              THREE-WAY TIE FOR FIRST AND SECOND
              - If Sweden and Germany win they will finish level on six points with Mexico, and it will first come down to goal difference.
              - Sweden are through in all scenarios. Germany are through in all but three scenarios, which means Mexico are most likely to be eliminated.
              - If Sweden win by two or more goals they are through, with Germany guaranteed to qualify with any win (Mexico out)
              - If Germany win by two or more goals they are through, with Sweden through with any win (Mexico out)
              - If both Germany and Sweden win 1-0 the three teams would have identical records and it would go to head-to-head mini-league, and this would see Germany and Sweden through on goals scored (with Germany top on direct head to head with Sweden) and Mexico out.
              - If both Germany and Sweden win 2-1 then Sweden would win the group on head to head goals scored. Mexico would be in second ahead of Germany in third on direct head to head
              - If both Germany and Sweden win 3-2 (or any higher one-goal identical margin of victory) then Sweden would win the group with Mexico second and Germany third on head-to-head mini-league goals scored
              - The only other way Mexico can go through, at the expense of Germany, if is both games are won by one goal, but Mexico's defeat against Sweden is a higher-scoring game.
              - If Sweden win by one goal, and Germany win by one goal but in a high-scoring game, Germany win the group with Sweden in second and Mexico out

              THREE-WAY TIE FOR SECOND
              - If South Korea win and Sweden lose there will be a three-way tie for second on three points for Germany, Sweden and South Korea. It will first come down to goal difference.
              - If South Korea beat Germany by two goals they are guaranteed to finish second
              - If South Korea beat Germany 1-0 and Sweden lose 1-0 to Mexico, Germany would be second on direct head to head against Sweden with South Korea bottom
              - If South Korea beat Germany by a higher-scoring one-goal margin than Sweden lose to Mexico, then South Korea would finish second on direct head to head against Germany with Sweden bottom
              - If Sweden lose by more than one goal they cannot qualify, and South Korea would therefore finish second with any victory

              Comment


              • #8
                Group G

                - England are through and are only guaranteed to top the group if they beat Belgium.
                - Belgium are through and are only guaranteed to top the group if they beat England.
                - England (2 yellows) currently lead Belgium (3 yellows) on Fair Play. If they draw the final group game first and second will be decided on this. If Fair Play also finishes level the teams will draw lots for positions.
                - Panama and Tunisia have been eliminated
                Last edited by MarianoV6; 24-06-18, 17:05.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Group H

                  - Japan need at least a point against Poland to qualify, and will definitely be through with a defeat if Colombia do not beat Japan. They will top the group if they better Senegal's result.
                  - Senegal need a point against Colombia to qualify, and can only qualify with a defeat if Japan lose too. They will top the group if they better Japan's result.
                  - Colombia must beat Senegal to go through. They cannot qualify with a draw as they would lose the head-to-head if level with Japan. They will top the group if they win and Japan do not.
                  - If both Japan and Senegal draw, both will be through and the team in the highest-scoring draw finishing top. If both draws are the same score, top spot will be decided first by Fair Play and then drawing of lots.
                  - If both Japan and Senegal win, both will be through and the team that wins by the biggest margin, or is in the highest-scoring win of the same margin, will finish top. If both wins are the same score, top spot will be decided first by Fair Play and then drawing of lots.
                  - If both Japan and Senegal lose then Colombia win the group. Second place will go to the team that loses by the smallest margin, or is in the lowest-scoring defeat of the same margin. If both defeats are the same score, second place will be decided first by Fair Play and then drawing of lots.
                  - Poland have been eliminated.
                  Last edited by MarianoV6; 24-06-18, 23:03.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Last 16

                    In general, teams from the same group who have finish first and second, will not meet again till final and of course third place game.

                    Teams will cross with the right next group. Example: First team group A will play against second team group B. First team group C will play second team group D. And so on till the last two groups (and vise versa, second team against first team of next group). The winners of these first two games (group A vs group B and group C vs group D) will play against each other. Hence, there is no way for example to see Russia play against Belgium till the semi finals.

                    It is likely that team or teams MAY choose their opponents (not just for the next round, but also for last 8 too!). For example: If Russia finish first, then they will face most likely one of Spain or Portugal, France, Argentina or Nigeria. If Russia finish second, then they will face one of Spain or Portugal, Croatia, Denmark. Same goes for Uruguay depending where they will finish. Avoiding Croatia is a smart thing i guess but it depends also on each team's gaming style.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Great information from you buddy, on third round going to watch a many interesting and uncertain matches like: Australia, Argentina, Portugal, Serbia, Germany etc. Thank you

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        I think Brazil and Serbia could settle for 2:2 or 3:3, and hope that Costa Rica beat Switzerland, there are friends among players, played in the same clubs.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Nikko View Post
                          I think Brazil and Serbia could settle for 2:2 or 3:3, and hope that Costa Rica beat Switzerland, there are friends among players, played in the same clubs.
                          Do you think Brazil is a team that would go for a draw and "hope" from a team that couldn't score so far in two games? What kind of joke is this?

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Haha you're so naive, Brazil would surely like to avoid Germany in 1/8 finals, so draw is better result for them than a win They want to finish second, not first. And regarding hope, you didn't understand right of course...it's Serbia that have to hope for Costa Rica win, not Brazil, Brazil are totally fine with a draw against Serbia, no matter the result in the other match.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by Nikko View Post
                              Haha you're so naive, Brazil would surely like to avoid Germany in 1/8 finals, so draw is better result for them than a win They want to finish second, not first. And regarding hope, you didn't understand right of course...it's Serbia that have to hope for Costa Rica win, not Brazil, Brazil are totally fine with a draw against Serbia, no matter the result in the other match.
                              Yea like germans look like a scary team. And its not sure yet Germany would finish second, they can very well top the group with a Sweden win, ofc thats unlikely but i would say even more unlikely is a Costa Rica win against Switzerland. You played them,tell me they are that good to give you reasons to be optimistic? And i really doubt brasilians will settle for a draw.
                              My country is the world...and my religion is to do good.

                              Comment

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