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Special bets, which ones you like most

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  • Special bets, which ones you like most

    Exactly what the title is saying

    i have found several special bets like team group points, lowest scoring team, Continental betting, top club goalscorer, tournament totals, competition specials, team total goals (it doesn't have to be YES, it can be NO as well ), top team goalscorer, which i found all very interesting.

    Analyzing the teams and trying to find at least one bet from all those above will help also during the tournament to understand better the teams.

    One example is that if you try to find the top scorer of Peru, then you probably miss your money by 99,9%. And this is because Peru is not based on one player and their gaming style is based on finding open space. If and When they will find, then the one who will find himself in top position will be the scorer. But Peru on the other hand maybe can give another special bet, like winning one group game and this will come after analyzing all group teams.

    Let's see which special bets are your favorite ones I will start writing mine from tomorrow

  • #2
    In some bets like overall tournament totals, it is important to know against whom is playing the first team of the group at the next round and at the quarter finals. I will try to make a small map of this tomorrow also.

    Like with Belgium for example: They play against England, Tunisia and Panama at the group stage. It''s not hard but also not impossible to finish first. As a group winner, they will either play against Poland, or Senegal or Colombia or Japan (depending who will finish second). Are they good enough to pass? Yes it's the answer. So whom are they facing next at the quarter finals? Assuming that Brazil will do their job and finish first at their group, then they will play against the runner up of group G which more likely will be Mexico. So at the end, Belgium will have to face Brazil at the quarter finals.

    If Belgium decides to finish second at their group (with England first), then they will face one of Poland, Senegal, Colombia or Japan as the winner of their group and at the quarter final they will face Germany! If Germany wont finish first, then they will take the place of Mexico and they will face Brazil.

    The question is, with Brazil on one hand and Germany on the other, can Belgium go further in the tournament? And hence the question, is it worth to take a bet on Belgium when the situation is like that? Because it's not about if they can pass Brazil or Germany, it's about how easy that is! So further search is needed in all bets in my opinion

    Comment


    • #3
      Had a look on most scoring group. Looked backed and its always( well at least for last 3 wc) about the big guns groups: Argentina, Brazil, Spain, Germany. This time bet365 see as favorite, i would say big favorite group G where Belgium and England shall have a field day vs Tunisia or Panama. It makes sence both are huge favorite to go through while Tunisia and Panama dont look like great defensive teams. But like i said England for me is overrated, may be good on counters but against parked buses they shall struggle. I dont see them scoring that much. Belgium world cup winner on paper with the amount of quality they have but yet to prove as a team, still they should trash both. Low chances for group A and H, both have some underish teams, ofc big question mark Saudi defense but Russia struggling to score, Pharaons might be without Salah and Uruguay plays safe. I would exclude this groups from the list. I would also exclude Spain group with the king of under Iran, Portugal defensive minded while Morroco arent that much of a scorers and i reckon we wont see another Spain-Netherlands 1-5 in the group debut, will be much more safity and tactical game. I would also exclude France group because all teams except France are defensive minded and they struggle to score, Peru without top-scorer will park the bus, aussies look more organized with new coach, Denmark solid team but doesnt score much. So the battle will be between Brazil, Germoney and Argies imo. I rate Germoney group tightest of all. Ofc South Korea are serious candidates for a trashing but neither Mexico or Sweden are such great offensive teams, in fact Sweden is organised and underish as hell, Mexico usually solid in group stages wont receive many, so i dont see Germoney trashing neither , maybe a 2-0 over Sweden which they own historically. So it will be between argies and Brazil. I think its gonna be close but i rate argies group more prone to overs, Nigeria and Iceland have terrible defenses, i can see Argentina having a field day against Iceland, while both dont lookthat poor when going forward. Croatia is solid but they do have enough talent scoring wise plud argies are kind of wild and unbalanced, have doubts over their defense. Brazil group looks more balanced, i can see some tight games over there, plus Brazil is expected to play better defense under Tito but its true they can be explosive up-front. I reckon its gonna be close so Group D pays 8.5 for highest number of goals while group E 7 so my choice will be argies group.
      My country is the world...and my religion is to do good.

      Comment


      • #4
        The pair Panama and Costa Rica to finish at the bottom of their groups is a fine combo bet for me which is giving currently 2.50 odds

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by MarianoV6 View Post
          The pair Panama and Costa Rica to finish at the bottom of their groups is a fine combo bet for me which is giving currently 2.50 odds
          Yes.
          Today Costa Rica showed nothing, I dont think they can score at all. Even if they played without their best striker.
          MacotBet follow me on BA http://forum.bettingadvice.com/showt...=39806&page=34

          Comment


          • #6
            Another interesting, yet not final, special bet is "Top goalscorer - Top England Premier League Goalscorer".

            Currently Kane (England) is the favorite there with odds at 7.00 together with Fernando Jesus (Brazil). Second favorite is Romelu Lukaku with odds at 8.00 and here is where my eyes are.

            One of the negative things in my opinion that England has is that they don't create so many clear goal chances. Yesterday (with a B squad, ok) against Costa Rica they had at half time 26 dangerous attacks while Costa Rica had only 2. Statistics doesn't always telling the truth cause that 26 dangerous attacks where mostly rubbish. I believe, latortuga has put it right at the Group G thread. Also, as a British team, they try many long shots which means that anyone can score.

            We all know Brazil i guess. We all know also that Neymar is the penalty taker there as he scores also with attempts. Brazil is not based only on one target man up front as many players are trying to score (Neymar, Paulinho, Coutinho and so on). The only negative i find for my bet is that i expect them to reach at final stages (last four at least) but still...

            At Belgium, Lukaku is the main scorer together with Hazard. You can find both of them at all of their games having score at least one and at games where Belgium has score 3 or more, you will find at least one of them having score 2 at least. As with Brazil, i expect them too to get far in the competition and they have prove that they can score easily at any opponent. I explained their road to final at another threat.

            Lukaku with odds at 8.00 is very tempting for me (Hazard has 17.00 but ok, Lukaku is the forward so logic says he will score more) and that bet is in my option as the one i mentioned earlier. It's a risky bet but the odds worth a shot, even if i lower my usual stakes.

            Comment


            • #7
              Some other interesting bets which are being offered at the special bets section are:

              Stage of Elimination
              Colombia last 16 at 2.40 because their group is unpredictable but they can pass i thing and because at the next stage they will face either Belgium or England.

              Team Group Points
              Iceland under 2 at 2.75. My opinion is that their Euro fairy tail story will end here as they have to face Croatia, Argentina and Nigeria. I don't see them getting anything from the first 2 so only Nigeria is left. They play each other at the second round in which stage nothing is over yet so both will have a motive. It's a risky choice of course but i can't see them winning Nigeria. In fact, i can't see any of them winning at their between them game. Negative factor is if any of them has place any bet

              Costa Rica under 2 points is also an option. They are facing Brazil, Serbia and Switzerland. Odds are at 2.10

              Top Club Goalscorer
              Chelsea - Hazard (Belgium) at 2.10. This bet is actually in my choices

              Team total goals
              Belgium over 8.5 at 2.10

              Top team goalscorer
              Marcus Berg at 3.50 (Sweden)
              Isco at 5.50 (Spain)
              Lukaku at 2.75 (Belgium)

              Competition Specials
              Timo Werner over 2.5 goals at 1.80

              Iceland to win a group game, NO at 2.00
              Costa Rica to win a group game, NO at 1.70
              Japan to win a group game, NO at 2.10 (a bit risky this one because of their group but still it's not a bad choice)

              That's all i can see and from which my only choices at the moment is one bet with Lukaku, the top club goalscorer and the combo bet i posted earlier.
              Last edited by MarianoV6; 08-06-18, 11:59.

              Comment


              • #8
                Team to get 0 points

                In the past few editions of the WC, the number of teams that got 0 points in the group stage has always fluctuated between 2 and 3.

                For this year's WC, the following teams are my top favorites to take 0 points:

                - Saudi Arabia
                - Panama
                - South Korea
                - Iran

                Saudi Arabia at 3 is a nice bet. The spanner in the works in the case of Saudi could be them playing Egypt on the last day. If Egypt are out of the competition and have nothing to play for, I'm not sure they will give it their all...

                South Korea is the bet I like most at odds of 5. On day 1, they will be playing Sweden and that is pretty much their only hope for a point (Mexico and Germany are next)... The Korean defense is a shamble and upfront things are not coming together. I can't see them getting more than a possible point against Sweden and that also looks rather unlikely.

                Panama are hopeless. For me they are the weakest side at this WC after Saudi Arabia. Unlike Saudi Arabia, however, they are in with some stronger opposition. Their only hope for a point would be on match day 3 against Tunisia but I think the Tunisians will still be motivated enough even if they are out of the competition. Panama to get 0 points at 3 seems good value.

                I'm not that sure about Iran. They could get a draw against Morocco but I think it's more likely that they will lose that one. However, I would not be surprised if they do manage to get a draw against Portugal... I might skip this one.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Serbia to finish rock bottom is nice bet in bet365 as they show nothing after they fired Muslin. Players starts to argue between themselves in and after game with Chile B team.
                  Sure Brazil and Swiss will be over them and Costa Rica can manage a win with unorganized team with Krstajic whom players don't love that much

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Another nice bet is Argentina to finish in top 4 teams but I don't expect them to win this one too as Messi dictate who will play or who will not

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by WiserthantheCrowd View Post
                      Team to get 0 points


                      I'm not that sure about Iran. They could get a draw against Morocco but I think it's more likely that they will lose that one. However, I would not be surprised if they do manage to get a draw against Portugal... I might skip this one.
                      Be carefull with Iran, they might be the black horse of this group. Iran did never end without a pic taken in their World's Cup history. And the team even looks in better shape than 4 years ago where they managed to take a point against Nigeria and almost did it against the finalist Argentina.

                      Iran is not a scoring machine but is solid defensively, Morocco is pretty much the same team (with better individualities and technic) but overall it could be a boring and closed game, Iran in my opinion can even surprise Portugal here.

                      The good forward "Azmoun" has to be followed as well, he is almost at home in Russia as being part of the russian club Rubin Kazan.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Wilson View Post
                        Be carefull with Iran, they might be the black horse of this group. Iran did never end without a pic taken in their World's Cup history. And the team even looks in better shape than 4 years ago where they managed to take a point against Nigeria and almost did it against the finalist Argentina.

                        Iran is not a scoring machine but is solid defensively, Morocco is pretty much the same team (with better individualities and technic) but overall it could be a boring and closed game, Iran in my opinion can even surprise Portugal here.

                        The good forward "Azmoun" has to be followed as well, he is almost at home in Russia as being part of the russian club Rubin Kazan.
                        Yup, even if Iran are still sitting on 0 points on match day 3, they won't be opening up and creating spaces for Portugal... Portugal aren't good at taking inferior sides apart and Iran know how to defend very well. Plus, while their midfield still is weak, they do have better options upfront than in the past and could create problems for the aged Portuguese backline. Moreover, they will be happy to just take a point - nobody back home is expecting Team Melli to qualify...

                        So I will just leave it at 3 prime contenders for ZERO points.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Hi Mariano,

                          I also think Colombia will end up losing in the round of 16. This prediction should work out, in theory...

                          Iceland Under 2 points - is risky, but might be worth a while.

                          Costa Rica - might surprise someone. I've watched the Serbs against Chile and they were awful. I'd be surprised to see them win any game in the group. And I'd give CR the edge in the match-up. CR might end up wining against Serbia or drawing w. Serbia and Switzerland...

                          Hazard - don;t know...he's not the best scorer out there as Belgians have a lot of firepower. Also, they tend to score a lot from crosses or from the wings (Carrasco or Meunier) as Hazard drops to a more central position, w. Mertens behind Lukaku. Also, consider Chelsea has Giroud (if he'll play as regular he'll definitely outscore Hazard) and Wiliam (who could end up scoring a couple for Brazil as well). Why not even Moses who has a more offensive role for Nigeria. I would not risk the bet at these odds.

                          Sorry, but I don;t like any of your top team GS bets. Maybe Lukaku (but again, too much firepower for Belgium). Also, he's not quite the type of scorer who puts more than a goal/game (I'm referring to the United & Belgium starts) .

                          Agree on Werner over 2,5 - I think it is pretty safe.

                          Finally, I wouldn't risk money on those 3 teams not getting a win

                          Originally posted by MarianoV6 View Post
                          Some other interesting bets which are being offered at the special bets section are:

                          Stage of Elimination
                          Colombia last 16 at 2.40 because their group is unpredictable but they can pass i thing and because at the next stage they will face either Belgium or England.

                          Team Group Points
                          Iceland under 2 at 2.75. My opinion is that their Euro fairy tail story will end here as they have to face Croatia, Argentina and Nigeria. I don't see them getting anything from the first 2 so only Nigeria is left. They play each other at the second round in which stage nothing is over yet so both will have a motive. It's a risky choice of course but i can't see them winning Nigeria. In fact, i can't see any of them winning at their between them game. Negative factor is if any of them has place any bet

                          Costa Rica under 2 points is also an option. They are facing Brazil, Serbia and Switzerland. Odds are at 2.10

                          Top Club Goalscorer
                          Chelsea - Hazard (Belgium) at 2.10. This bet is actually in my choices

                          Team total goals
                          Belgium over 8.5 at 2.10

                          Top team goalscorer
                          Marcus Berg at 3.50 (Sweden)
                          Isco at 5.50 (Spain)
                          Lukaku at 2.75 (Belgium)

                          Competition Specials
                          Timo Werner over 2.5 goals at 1.80

                          Iceland to win a group game, NO at 2.00
                          Costa Rica to win a group game, NO at 1.70
                          Japan to win a group game, NO at 2.10 (a bit risky this one because of their group but still it's not a bad choice)

                          That's all i can see and from which my only choices at the moment is one bet with Lukaku, the top club goalscorer and the combo bet i posted earlier.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            When it comes to special bets I'd like to risk a bit more and look for higher odds, considering the risk of the outcome. Here are the ones I've taken so far:

                            Brasil, Uruguay y Argentina to received 10 o more yellow cards each @7.00 1,5/10

                            I'm counting on the fact that they'll all get out of groups so at least 4 games (5/6 for Ar & Br) and that Uruguay is a pretty aggressive team. Especially in the last 16 they'll probably be paired w. Spain or Portugal, I see them getting at least 4 in this match, so with around 2/game in the groups I can see the numbers here.

                            Lukaku, Griezmann, Diego Costa y G. Jesus to score 16 or more between them @10.00 2/10

                            I'm counting on the fact that their teams will play at least 5 games (QF) and I can see all among the goalscorers of the tournament. I'm hoping Lukaku and Griezmann to contribute with at least 10 together.

                            2,5 goals in at least 3 games of each group (this means 3/6 games in a group to go over) @ 26.00 1,5/10

                            I know it is very risky, but the average in last WCs was around 2,5 (2,7 in 2014). I think the odds are worth the risk

                            Last one for now:

                            L. Messi, C. Ronaldo, H. Kane y G. Jesus to score 4 or more goals each @ 51.00 1/10

                            they should all be their teams' top GS (maybe Jesus to be fighting with Neymar for that).
                            Messi & Ronaldo are in form and also penalty takers.
                            Kane doesn't need a lot to score and I hope in a trashing game in England Panama where Kane would sum up at least 2
                            Jesus is the risky bet here, but he should start as a regular. If Brasil wins the first one and he scores I'm pretty confident he'll continue as a regular and reach the numbers.

                            I have a longer list, but haven't played them. I'll consider them later this week

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Hola Cuore2010

                              I must admit that the is something with Costa Rica but i'm not sure what... From what i have seen from them, i rate them very low. But then again, when i see the odds on them in some specific bets, the picture is different. So either i am very wrong and there is something with CS which i haven't see or there is something wrong with the other teams. We will see.

                              About Hazard... Yes, of course there is Giroud but i'm taking into consideration couple more things for this bet. The first one is also the one you mentioned, how often he will play regular. The second thing is how far each team can go. France at quarter finals will have to play with Croatia at round of 16 and then they will face Uruguay or one from Spain/Portugal. And here i'm taking into consideration how many goals can they score against those teams and IF they can pass them. So France has more chances to score most of their goals at the group stage.

                              Belgium on the other hand will have to face Germany or Brazil at the quarter finals but i believe a) they can score against both of them and b) they might even pass them and c) they have good chances to score many goals both at group stage and at the last 16.

                              Regarding Belgium goals, during qualification games Lukaku had 9 goals, Hazard had 6 goals and then there was Mertens and Meunier with 5. Giroud had 4 btw. During their last 5 friendlies, Lukaku had 6 goals, Hazard had 2 goals and then there was Fellaini, Batshuanyi and De Bruyne with one goal. Also to mention that in three of those games, Hazard came out before the 60' min of the game.

                              So for this bet im taking into consideration all those things (the stages of elimination, the how often each player is playing, their opponents, their form, their recent history) and that's where i'm basing it.

                              Just to be clear, i'm not trying to convincing you or someone else, just explaining the way i think. In betting like in life, there is always a good possibility for someone to be wrong As i said after all, these are bets from which i consider to take only very few (2-3), and i will take my bets at the last minute because there is always a possibility for late injuries or some other things, no rush for me at the moment.

                              Risky your bets but there are couple of them that i like. Without knowing the referee i wouldn't take card bets unless you replace those teams with Panama, Colombia and Nigeria Buena suerte!

                              Comment

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