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Special bets, which ones you like most

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  • #16
    Originally posted by Cuore2010 View Post
    When it comes to special bets I'd like to risk a bit more and look for higher odds, considering the risk of the outcome. Here are the ones I've taken so far:

    Brasil, Uruguay y Argentina to received 10 o more yellow cards each @7.00 1,5/10

    I'm counting on the fact that they'll all get out of groups so at least 4 games (5/6 for Ar & Br) and that Uruguay is a pretty aggressive team. Especially in the last 16 they'll probably be paired w. Spain or Portugal, I see them getting at least 4 in this match, so with around 2/game in the groups I can see the numbers here.

    Lukaku, Griezmann, Diego Costa y G. Jesus to score 16 or more between them @10.00 2/10

    I'm counting on the fact that their teams will play at least 5 games (QF) and I can see all among the goalscorers of the tournament. I'm hoping Lukaku and Griezmann to contribute with at least 10 together.

    2,5 goals in at least 3 games of each group (this means 3/6 games in a group to go over) @ 26.00 1,5/10

    I know it is very risky, but the average in last WCs was around 2,5 (2,7 in 2014). I think the odds are worth the risk

    Last one for now:

    L. Messi, C. Ronaldo, H. Kane y G. Jesus to score 4 or more goals each @ 51.00 1/10

    they should all be their teams' top GS (maybe Jesus to be fighting with Neymar for that).
    Messi & Ronaldo are in form and also penalty takers.
    Kane doesn't need a lot to score and I hope in a trashing game in England Panama where Kane would sum up at least 2
    Jesus is the risky bet here, but he should start as a regular. If Brasil wins the first one and he scores I'm pretty confident he'll continue as a regular and reach the numbers.

    I have a longer list, but haven't played them. I'll consider them later this week
    What bookie did you get these bets?

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    • #17
      Originally posted by eldie57 View Post
      What bookie did you get these bets?
      Betfair

      Comment


      • #18
        I dunno why when you suggest some bet you don t write the odds cauze everthing depends on them.I mine if you think that Brazil will take a tittle that could be good bet if the odd is 5-6 but if it is 3-4 that s not good bet at all...

        Comment


        • #19
          Originally posted by Dex View Post
          Serbia to finish rock bottom is nice bet in bet365 as they show nothing after they fired Muslin. Players starts to argue between themselves in and after game with Chile B team.
          Sure Brazil and Swiss will be over them and Costa Rica can manage a win with unorganized team with Krstajic whom players don't love that much
          Can you tell us more about that?
          In my opinion Switzerland is nothing special, they play uncreative football and they probably had the easiest group in Qual campaign including the easiest opponent on play-off game and they still couldn't score more than 23 goals even thought having teams like Andorra, Faroe Island, Latvia in the group Qual.

          I don't like their forwards either, in my opinion Seferovic, Drmic, Gavranovic are not convincing since the Euro 2016 and most of the time you see Lichsteiner or Ricardo Rodriguez being scorer. In my opinion Switzerland will struggle alot, Serbia seems like a better team.

          Comment


          • #20
            Originally posted by Wilson View Post
            Can you tell us more about that?
            In my opinion Switzerland is nothing special, they play uncreative football and they probably had the easiest group in Qual campaign including the easiest opponent on play-off game and they still couldn't score more than 23 goals even thought having teams like Andorra, Faroe Island, Latvia in the group Qual.

            I don't like their forwards either, in my opinion Seferovic, Drmic, Gavranovic are not convincing since the Euro 2016 and most of the time you see Lichsteiner or Ricardo Rodriguez being scorer. In my opinion Switzerland will struggle alot, Serbia seems like a better team.
            I agree w. you on Switz strikers, but I think they are a more consistent and organized team than the other 2 contenders for the 2nd place (Brazil should easily win the 1st). They have a decent defense and it seems they can also score - Embolo & Shaquiri should cover the lack of productivity of their strikers (though Seferovic scored as a substitute vs. Japan). I watched Switzerland against Spain and although dominated, they had the power to come back for a draw. Also, they won 2-0 against Japan. At the same time I watched Serbia vs. both Chile (2nd team, although they seemed to work well as a unit - decent results) & Bolivia (awful team).
            They were completely clueless vs Chile and Chile's counters were harming them a lot (I expect a trash in the game vs Brasil if Brasil will be interested to win it).
            Vs. Bolivia they scored a lot but allowing such a bad team to score against you and reach a couple of more times near your goal is a concerning thing.
            CR sucked against England's 2nd team, they were totally dominated, but I don't think they should be totally judged by that.

            All in all I also think Serbia to bottom the group would be a decent bet at high odds (over 4/5)

            Comment


            • #21
              Yeah right. Serbia to finish last. Seriously? Maybe in Ante Pavelic's or Franjo Tudjman's dreams (if they were alive today)... Serbia have been coming together and things are starting to look like they are falling into place... Sure, they unnecessarily conceded a goal against Bolivia but by that time they were already 4-0 ahead and taking more risks... I think a bet on the group to end as follows at odds of 4.5 or above is a nice pick:

              1. Brazil
              2. Serbia
              3. Switzerland
              4. Costa Rica

              Another group in which the final standings seem good to punt on is group A in which Uruguay towers above all others and Russia as hosts should qualify with Saudi finishing at the bottom. This bet can is offered at odds of about 3.

              Comment


              • #22
                well I think that this group, except Brasil,doesn t have big quality gap between other 3 teams.Switzerland and Serbia have couple of interesting players(2-3) and if you put pressure on them,than we could have underish game in most of the clashes.Krstajic made two improvments in NT-Start playing with 4 defenders in defensive line and called SMS in the squad.But now he did 1-2 steps back putting Stojkovic back on the goal line(Dmitrovic) looks as a better choice to me and he rotated in all lines which looks chaotic and results show that.I won t put a single bet in this group...

                Comment


                • #23
                  Originally posted by WiserthantheCrowd View Post
                  Yeah right. Serbia to finish last. Seriously? Maybe in Ante Pavelic's or Franjo Tudjman's dreams (if they were alive today)... Serbia have been coming together and things are starting to look like they are falling into place... Sure, they unnecessarily conceded a goal against Bolivia but by that time they were already 4-0 ahead and taking more risks... I think a bet on the group to end as follows at odds of 4.5 or above is a nice pick:

                  1. Brazil
                  2. Serbia
                  3. Switzerland
                  4. Costa Rica

                  Another group in which the final standings seem good to punt on is group A in which Uruguay towers above all others and Russia as hosts should qualify with Saudi finishing at the bottom. This bet can is offered at odds of about 3.
                  do you wish to be banned as you are involving fascism and politics talk into football talks?
                  I watch all this teams and don't see Serbia at 2nd place at all. Brazil will won the group with all victories, Switzerland will be second as they much more organized in the back but also in the front and Costa Rica and Serbia will battle for 3rd place but I place Costa Rica in front because they are ultra defensive team and on counters they was fast and they may hurt any team (Brazil included). If Serbia play as a team and not as a bunch of stars they may achieve something but from what I see against Chile B and Bolivia C teams is hard to believe in it

                  Comment


                  • #24
                    Originally posted by Dex View Post
                    do you wish to be banned as you are involving fascism and politics talk into football talks?
                    I watch all this teams and don't see Serbia at 2nd place at all. Brazil will won the group with all victories, Switzerland will be second as they much more organized in the back but also in the front and Costa Rica and Serbia will battle for 3rd place but I place Costa Rica in front because they are ultra defensive team and on counters they was fast and they may hurt any team (Brazil included). If Serbia play as a team and not as a bunch of stars they may achieve something but from what I see against Chile B and Bolivia C teams is hard to believe in it
                    OK, fair point. They did look a little "disjointed" so far. I see signs of improvement but CR are certainly a well-oiled, if somewhat dated, machine... Switzerland are a mediocre side but they can be efficient... Brazil should nick the 9 points here. I certainly can't see anyone here beating them to 1st place.

                    Comment


                    • #25
                      Originally posted by WiserthantheCrowd View Post
                      Yeah right. Serbia to finish last. Seriously? Maybe in Ante Pavelic's or Franjo Tudjman's dreams (if they were alive today)... Serbia have been coming together and things are starting to look like they are falling into place... Sure, they unnecessarily conceded a goal against Bolivia but by that time they were already 4-0 ahead and taking more risks... I think a bet on the group to end as follows at odds of 4.5 or above is a nice pick:

                      1. Brazil
                      2. Serbia
                      3. Switzerland
                      4. Costa Rica

                      Another group in which the final standings seem good to punt on is group A in which Uruguay towers above all others and Russia as hosts should qualify with Saudi finishing at the bottom. This bet can is offered at odds of about 3.
                      You surprised me with your comment, normally so calm and neutral.
                      I watch Costa Rica now and must agree that Serbia could well finish on the bottom. If they don`t take first match seriously and win, they are actually out.
                      MacotBet follow me on BA http://forum.bettingadvice.com/showt...=39806&page=34

                      Comment


                      • #26
                        I counted up the past four WCs, and two things interest me. In 32 groups, 14 sides have advanced with four points, and 29 have ended group play with 1 or 0 points.

                        I***8217;m interested in 4 points because I thought to take Poland to win over 4.5, but am now second-guessing that thought. I***8217;ll have to check odds on ***8220;Poland to qualify***8221; instead.

                        The ***8220;under 1.5***8221; sure think is a great option in many of these groups. Looking at the 29, sure, there***8217;s a France, an England, but the vast majority are the sides you***8217;d expect. Costa Rica winning the group of death is the exception, not the rule.

                        Anyway, liking Japan, Saudi Arabia, Panama, Australia, South Korea and maybe Costa Rica for under 1.5. Will refine this later on.

                        Also like France under 7.5, Portugal under 5.5 and Morocco over 2.5.
                        Last edited by allthethings; 11-06-18, 23:44. Reason: Added S Korea under 1.5
                        "Get on me, Bert -- I can't lose!!!"
                        --Fast Eddie Felson

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                        • #27
                          2 more special bets I placed yesterday:

                          1) Uruguay, Francia, Argentina, Brasil, Alemania, BĂ©lgica, Inglaterra y Colombia - each to score at least 4 goals in the group stages @6.50 2/10

                          I think the only small risk here is with Uruguay due to likely under-ish group (though I expect them to score at least 2 vs Saudi Ar. - as the Saudis will have to play even more open
                          than they usually play (hoping/assuming they'll loose the 1st game against Rusia) and maybe Colombia (though I expect them to score a minimum 2 goals against Japan, they won a similar group 4 years ago scoring 9 goals). Uruguay scored 4 last WC, and the didn't have Suarez for most of the group matches and they had a way harder group (Italy, Costa Rica who were playing very defensively and England).
                          Also, at the last WC there was only one team among the ones that went to the next stages and scored less than 4 goals (Greece 2-4 in).

                          2) A combo @ 6,3 odds - 3/10 confidence - Following teams' scoring in group stages:

                          Especiales - Argentina -
                          > 4,5 Goles
                          1.61
                          Especiales - Brasil -
                          > 5,5 Goles
                          1.80
                          Especiales - Colombia
                          > 3,5 Goles
                          1.50
                          Especiales - Panamá
                          < 2,5 Goles
                          1.44

                          I must say I have a lot of faith in these 2 but I prefer not to place high level bets on "futures".

                          Comment


                          • #28
                            Originally posted by Macot View Post
                            You surprised me with your comment, normally so calm and neutral.
                            I watch Costa Rica now and must agree that Serbia could well finish on the bottom. If they don`t take first match seriously and win, they are actually out.
                            I wasn't quite sure about Dex's motivation here and thought that the analysis was lacking a bit of meat (substance)... My feeling was that it could just be a dislike for the "neighbors" from Serbia - so a type of cognitive bias... But I was obviously wrong on that count - Dex is just not impressed with the Serbian team. And while they have some good individual players, teamwork and cohesion are certainly concerns that could come to haunt them...

                            Anyway, liking Japan, Saudi Arabia, Panama, Australia, South Korea and maybe Costa Rica for under 1.5. Will refine this later on.
                            I've taken a bet on all of those teams plus Iran not to win a match... I think this is going to be a bad year for Asian teams in general. I really can't see any of them winning a group match right... And Panama are just a very weak team. 6 MLS-based players and the others from the local league - plus they are the oldest team on average. I expect them to be completely out of depth and for Belgium to blow them away in the first match. While ranking-wise they should be on a par with Tunisia, I think Tunisia are stronger so that Panama together with Saudi Arabia really are prime candidates for 0 points... Costa Rica were the suprise package a few years ago and have had very little turnover so that we get the same package but a little slower and more belabored than it was before. I don't think they will surprise again. But they could conceivably get something out of their games versus Serbia and Switzerland so I am going for them not to qualify... I will provide a more detailed write-up later on.

                            Comment


                            • #29
                              One bet I have in mind is Argentina to receive over 1,5 goals in group stage (1.65). Reason is simple, all three teams Croatia, Nigeria and Iceland have potential to score against the favorite of the group. Last year Nigeria scored 4 against them and this month Spain scored 6(!!!). And considering their great players upfront, I don't think it will be a problem if they receive 1/2 goals per match as long as they score more.

                              Another interesting bet is Denmark to have over 3,5 points (1.75) and over 5,5 points (3.65) in group stage. The question is if they can win with Peru or at least get a draw. From what I saw recently, Denmark is a solid team with experienced players in every compartment. Imo Eriksen will make the difference in this match with Peru. As for South Americans, they are a good team, looking at their matches, the last defeat was in 2016 (!!) with Brasil. But remember that they qualified for the WC after beating NZ, so not such a big deal.
                              Denmark also has the advantage of playing France in last match when things may be clear about the winner of the group.

                              Comment


                              • #30
                                Originally posted by di canio View Post
                                One bet I have in mind is Argentina to receive over 1,5 goals in group stage (1.65). Reason is simple, all three teams Croatia, Nigeria and Iceland have potential to score against the favorite of the group. Last year Nigeria scored 4 against them and this month Spain scored 6(!!!). And considering their great players upfront, I don't think it will be a problem if they receive 1/2 goals per match as long as they score more.

                                Another interesting bet is Denmark to have over 3,5 points (1.75) and over 5,5 points (3.65) in group stage. The question is if they can win with Peru or at least get a draw. From what I saw recently, Denmark is a solid team with experienced players in every compartment. Imo Eriksen will make the difference in this match with Peru. As for South Americans, they are a good team, looking at their matches, the last defeat was in 2016 (!!) with Brasil. But remember that they qualified for the WC after beating NZ, so not such a big deal.
                                Denmark also has the advantage of playing France in last match when things may be clear about the winner of the group.
                                I agree about Argentina.

                                Regarding DK, I also agree but I think the more sensible option is just to take a punt on the straight forecast:

                                1. France
                                2. DK
                                3. Peru
                                4. Australia

                                This is being offered odds of above 3.

                                Comment

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