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[France Ligue 1] Official thread

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    [France Ligue 1] Official thread

    What to expect for this new season ?

    - PSG will be champion, no doubt about that.
    The last season was horrible and everybody from the Qatari owner to the players and Unai Emery are focused to come back on the top of the league (even if Champions League is the main goal).
    Neymar should sign in few days and they want to buy Mbappe or Alexis Sanchez.
    Dani Alves will improve the team aswell.
    This means few players should leave the club, Di Maria, Lucas, Jese and Aurier could be these ones.
    Moreover, Monaco won't make the same season than last year and others teams simply can't compete with Paris.
    I'm afraid that Paris will end up with at least 20 points ahead like 2 seasons ago.
    My guess : 1st

    - As i wrote Monaco has lost some of their best players like Mendy, Bakayoko and Bernardo Silva.
    And others like Fabinho, Lemar and Mbappe could leave the club, especially the last one. Real Madrid and PSG would like to buy him and we heard about 150 to 180 millions ***8364;, at these price, Monaco can't refuse and the player want to move to Madrid and working with Zidane.
    As every year, They have bought young and talented players like Tielemans (Anderlecht), Kongolo (Feyenoord), Mboula (Barcelona) and Lopes and St Maximin came back from loan but those guys will need time i guess.
    If Fabinho and Lemar are staying, if they find a decent striker to replace Mbappe, they should keep a Champions League spot.
    My guess : 2nd

    Then, we have teams who will reach an european spot :

    - Marseille has a new owner too since last year (American).
    After a decent winter transfer window to show they have money and to help the team to reach an Europa League spot, Marseille is going to make a team with experienced players. I could quote Rami (Sevilla), Mandanda (Crystal Palace) and Luis Gustavo (Wolfsburg).
    A central defender and a striker to help the beast Valere Germain are awaited before end of August.
    Marseille isn't the most sexy team of the league but their players have enough experience and talent to reach the last spot for the Champions league. And Rudi Garcia has the skills to drive this team to this goal.
    My guess : 3rd

    - Lille is probably the most exciting team we will see this season.
    New owner, big money, Marcelo Bielsa on the bench, and young and talented players.
    Luis Araujo and Thiago Mendes (Sao Paulo), Pepe (Angers), Lé (Belenenses), Malcuit (Saint-Etienne), Ponce (AS Roma), Thiago Maia (Santos), Jakubech (Spartak Trnava) and few others.
    And everybody knows how Bielsa care about beauty football and offensive style, personnaly i really enjoyed to see Marseille playing when he coached them.
    45.000 to 50.000 fans are expected at EVERY match and what we have seen from friendly is very promissing.
    My guess : 4th

    -Nice is with Monaco the team who showed the best football last season.
    This club has totally changed the last years and they're trying every season to buy a big name. 2 seasons ago it was Ben Arfa, last season Balotelli (who finally decided to stay) and it seems that Wesley Snyder could sign soon.
    Lucien Favre (as Claude Puel before him) is working with the reserve team and U19, U17, etc to give a the same style to all the teams of the clubs, like Barcelona is doing since decades.
    This season again, we'll see offensive football but they have lost important players in defence. Paul Baysse moved to Malaga and Dalbert don't want to play anymore and should go in Italy (Inter).
    Nice is a club who can't play the champions league every year, if they grab an europa league spot, the season will be a success.
    My guess : 5th

    - What to say about Lyon, i could write 2 pages about them, it's a complete mess.
    First, the coach Bruno Genesio will stay for one more season while the last season was a nightmare and the fans are hoping for a new coach since one year. But the president don't want to hear that, don't want to hire a foreigner as a coach and still believe in Genesio while he must be the only one in France.
    Then, Lacazette, Valbuena, Gonalons and Tolisso left the club and they bought Traoré and Tete (Ajax), Marcelo (Besiktas), Mariano (Real Madrid), Marcal (Benfica) and Mendy (Le Havre).
    I know few of them but i'm pretty sure the team won't be as strong as last year while even last year they were far from the top teams of the league.
    And lately, Mammana signed to Zenit St Petersburg while he's probably the best central defender and the other ones (Morel, Nkoulou, Mapou) are the most shittest i have seen for a while.
    I'm quite sure that Genesio will be fired before christmas and Juninho will replace him.
    But we will see goals, goals and goals, you can back overs at every match cos they will conceede a lot.
    My guess : 6th (but could be 10th)

    __________________________________________________ ___________
    Then, we have 3 of the best clubs in French football history, with lots of titles and great fans ... but new times... :

    Bordeaux kept Gourvennec as a coach but he wanted more money to improve the team.
    It seems it will not be the case even if Javi Garcia (Zenit) is still wanted by the club.
    Nothing special to expect, the 6th place last season was more or less what the club expected and what the team can do as its best.

    Saint-Etienne hired a new coach, Oscar Garcia from RB Salzburg.
    After 5 years of boring matches, maybe we'll see something new and offensive football
    But nothing else to expect from them, they can't reach a better spot than the 6th or 7th.
    But if they give emotions and good football to watch to the fans, it will be a good season.

    Nantes made the buzz lately after hired Claudio Ranieri.
    Is he can make a miracle like he did with Leicester ?
    Clearly not.
    They don't have enough money to buy to players and for the moment they team hasn't much changed even if a new goalkeeper (Tatarusanu from Fiorentina) and a new central defender (Pallois from Bordeaux) arrived.
    I don't see them above the 8th place of the table.


    To finish (i will not speak about teams who should stay in the middle of the table and won't fight for anything), let's have a look on the teams who will try to avoid relegation.

    Amiens will live their first season of their history in Ligue 1 after an amazing season in Ligue 2 where they won the promotion at the 95th minute of the last match.
    And i don't see how they could avoid the relegation to be honest.
    They don't have enough money to improve the team even if Gael Kakuta signed few weeks ago which is imo a good signing.
    But their best striker will go in Fulham in few days and it will be hard for them to score goals and to win games.
    Even in Ligue 2, i thought this team wasn't very good and if they promoted it's because teams like Reims, Lens and Brest were pathetic and unable to win 2 matchs in a row.

    Troyes is coming back after a year in 2nd division.
    But 2 seasons ago, they were the worst team of Ligue 1 of the history.
    No doubt that they will fight again to stay in 1st division but, as Amiens, they are Ligue 2 players with, except the captain Nivet and 2-3 others, a lack of experience.

    Metz, Dijon and maybe Montpellier are, for me, the other teams who could fight until the end in this relegation zone.
    And i will be surprised if an other team than these 5 will fall in second division.


    The surprise :

    Few pennies on Strasbourg to be the surprise, a sort of dark horse who will ruin bets because a lot of people will bet against them.
    After all, they come from 2nd division, they must be weak.
    But, their coach is in my opinion very underrated and he made good work with Gazelec Ajaccio few years ago.
    Then, they have fantastic fans who supported them even when they falled in 4th and 5th division (10.000 to 15.000 at every match) and last season those fans surely helped them to grab one of the promotion spot.
    I'm lazy to check out the statistics but they must be the best team at home last year.
    And, to finish, i really like their new players.
    Jonas Martin is coming from Betis Sevilla where he failed because an injury but he has a lot of talent, Benjamin Corgnet is a decent ligue 1 player and Idriss Saadi could be the best transfer of ligue 1, he's coming from Belgium where he scored 16 goals in 39 games with Kortrijk.

    Well, i hope you'll enjoy, don't be too harsh because my english isn't as good as i would want.
    This season in Ligue 1 will be one of the most exciting of the last decades, a lot of teams with ambition, half of the teams have coaches (foreigners or not) who want to show offensive football, ...
    Unfortunately, we need a team who can compete every season with PSG, not a one shot like last year.

    Last edited by Breizhtois; 01-08-17, 13:34.

    Interesting analysis Breizhtois, thanks for that!


      Monaco vs Toulouse

      This way, I expect a Monaco reinventing themselves this season, with Leonardo Jardim promoting youth talent, which will make the team start off slow, and work their way up along the season, as the players begin to adapt.

      With that said, and being the 1st game of the season, I expect a slow paced match, and with less goals scored.



        Thanks a lot for the fantastic preview Breizhtois, it was a great pleasure to read. And don't worry, your English is pretty decent!

        This year, I'll try watching Strasbourg closely. They are a "classical" team and I was sad to see them languish in lower divisions. I'm glad you expect them to do well - maybe just like Levante did a few years ago, they will soon develop to become a strong team again and contend for European football.

        As a UEFA coefficient maniac, I will be following French teams in European competitions this year. Because France has a good chance to beat Italy and get 4th spot in UEFA coefficient rankings in two years, which will mean four automatic CL group stage berth. Not sure if football federations follow those news, but to me, this is huge.

        How would you rate their chances for success in UCL and ECL this season? PSG is obviously very strong and anything below quarter-finals in UCL will be a disappointment for them. Nice has done a tremendous job by eliminating Ajax. Marseille looks promising with new additions and I've really liked them against Oostende. Bordeaux is nothing special but with a little bit of luck, I think they can make it into group stages of EL and maybe into further rounds. No idea at all about Monaco - I believe it will go down to their draw luck. With a relatively merciful draw, I guess they can also make it into the second round of UCL. Lyon indeed seems to be a huge mess and is not a team I'm hopeful about.

        Do you think the French teams will make some noise in Europe this year? In terms of competitiveness, Ligue 1 is unfortunately very one-sided thanks to the domination of PSG; yet this season many teams look very promising and I expect an even better record than last year in European competitions.


          Hi Breizhtois,
          Thank you for the detailed preview! A lot of work in it!
          I would like to ask about Depay. Is he staying? I still consider him very talented who was ruined at MU, and I hope we will see his better side this season.

          PS: I checked, and Strasbourg was the best home team last season in Ligue 2.



            I'm glad more foreigners follow our league every year, we can thanks Paris SG (even i'm not a fan at all of the club and Qatar) because more stars are coming and other clubs are more ambition.
            Neymar will sign today or tomorrow so we can expect more nice players to come in Ligue 1 soon and TV rights will propably increase a lot

            You right about UEFA coefficient.
            I don't think we'll beat Italy in the next 2 years because Serie A is a league which bouncing back with AC Milan and Inter who have rich owners, Juve is still good in Champions League and clubs like Napoli and Roma are still performing in european cups and those 2 clubs can easily reach at least a quarter final in Europa League for example.
            And it seems that Italian clubs are starting to think about UEFA coefficient also.
            But why not in the next 5 years ?
            Since few years, clubs have understand that this coefficient is very important and we have seen Lyon in Europa League semi-final and Saint-Etienne wasn't bad in the last 2 seasons but unfortunately they weren't lucky last year to draw Manchester United. Btw they weren't ridiculous against them.

            What to expect about this year in european cups ?

            * If PSG don't reach at least the semi-finals it will be a huge bad performance and Unai Emery will be sacked.
            They have bought already Dani Alves and Neymar and an other great player is expected, maybe Mbappe (even i still think he will go in Spain) or Alexis.
            I still think they had the potential to win the UCL last season but you know what happened in Camp Nou ...
            PSG missed players with bollocks and they have buy one with Dani Alves.

            * Monaco should be in a quite easy group because of their good UEFA coefficient.
            We'll see the draw but at least 8th finals are expected, they won't be as strong as last season but they still have very good players and Coach Jardim so it could be enough to pass through in front of teams like CSKA or something.
            After the group stages, everything will depend of the draw.

            * Then we have Nice.
            Honestly, i thought that they wouldn't qualify for the next round but they were brave yesterday in Amsterdam and even if Ajax lost few important players, it's still a good performance, especially in Amsterdam Arena.
            We'll see the draw tomorrow, if they have to face to Liverpool or Napoli, it will be too much difficult but if they play against Sporting or CSKA eveything is possible.
            Anyway, they will play at least the Europa League groups and i hope they'll play those 6 matches very seriously with ambition.
            They should buy a sexy player, maybe Wesley Shnyder, according go French newspapers.

            * Lyon reached the EL semi-finals last season and this performance showed to other clubs that it's possible, even with an average team, to beat AS Roma or that kind of team.
            This season Lyon want to play the final in his own stadium because the final will be played in Lyon.
            Personnaly, i think they will fail but i didn't think last season that they were able to reach the Semis.

            * Bordeaux, i don't know what to expect.
            First, they have to qualify against Videoton and they only won 2-1 at home, so...
            Then an other round...
            It's a long way to go to the group stages and last seasons when they played Europa League it was always dissapointing.
            But their coach is Jocelyn Gourvennec who made a good EL campaign with Guingamp few years ago and he takes that kind of competition very seriously.
            So, if the group isn't very though, why not a 16th finals, then we'll see

            * Finally Marseille.
            Marseille has a nice history with European cups and even it's only Europa League this competition is still important for the fans.
            The 3 spots for the Champions league will be hard to grab but they still can dream of.
            However, the EL is a way to win a qualification for the next UCL so they should take this competition seriously aswell and they are going to make a very competitive team with experienced players as i wrote in my preview.

            To summarize :

            - PSG : At least UCL semi finals
            - Monaco : At least UCL 8th finals
            - Nice : Group stages in UCL or at least EL 16th finals
            - Bordeaux : Group stages in EL (i didn't expect anything from them)
            - Lyon and Marseille : At least EL quarter finals.

            It will be a minimum.
            Last edited by Breizhtois; 03-08-17, 11:55.



              Yes, Depay is staying, he came in Lyon last winter for something like 30 millions euros and he should play with Fekir, Mariano and Bertrand Traoré.

              I don't know what to think about him.
              I liked him in PSV but since that i'm always dissapointing, a lot of ups and downs, sometimes he make so shitty matches and in a minute he can score a goal from the middle of the pitch like last season...

              But for him, this is a very important season if he want to prove that his bad experience in MU was just an accident.



                * Monaco v Toulouse :

                Of course Monaco is favourite here but there isn't value at all.
                For me, 1,50 could be good to take but not less, we all know the first rounds can be risky ones.
                I don't think Toulouse will park the bus but they will play very defensively and will try to doing something with counter attacks.
                I will not surprised if Toulouse score one goal from nowhere because Monaco defense is far to be unbeatable.
                However, i will try Mbappe to score @ 2,10.
                It could be his last match in Stade Louis II and the association with Falcao is amazing.

                * PSG v Amiens :

                The question isn't if PSG will win but with which margin.
                Neymar should play few minutes i think, there is a wind of optimism around the club with this amazing signing.
                PSG has to show to the whole league they will be unbeatable this season and they have shown last week during the supercup against Monaco that they're ready and in good shape.
                Moreover, medias from all over the world will be focused on this game because of Neymar and PSG don't have to **** up.
                Amiens will park the bus like never but imo they can't hold more than 30 minutes.
                I expect a blowout here, at least 4-0.
                On Sbobet i see a PSG -2,5 @ 2,01 i take it without a doubt.
                The handicap looks huge and the odds not so tasty but the quality difference is so big... and Amiens has sold his best striker to Fulham few days ago and i don't see how they could score once.

                Lille v Nantes

                What an excitement before to watch the Lille of Marcelo Bielsa to play !
                Very entertaining and offensive football to expect from them and they will face to the FC Nantes of Claudio Ranieri.
                I like Lille DNB in a combo material or Lille to win @ 2.00 , Nantes has nothing special, they will try to defend first but this team has a lack of quality despite their good last season under Sergio Conceicao.
                However Nantes defence is usually solid and they probably will be more solid with their new defender from Bordeaux, Pallois. Tatarusanu is better than their ex goalkeeper too.
                But for me, Araujo, Thiago Maia, Pepe, Benzia, etc are good enough to score against this average team which is Nantes. Especially with the support of almost 45.000 fans.
                Marcelo Bielsa teams are usually very unpredictable, so small stakes are required.
                Last edited by Breizhtois; 04-08-17, 16:24.


                  Lille -1,25 looks nice to me here


                    I forget one of my main bet of the day ...

                    Lyon v Strasbourg

                    As i wrote in my 1st post, Lyon defense isn't trustable at all and one of the worst of the top 10.
                    Lyon will give us a lot of overs because the team isn't very well balanced and make a lot of tactical mistakes (who could be surprised with such a bad coach ?).
                    For this 1st match, i think Strasbourg has really a chance to grab something from Lyon. They come from Ligue 2 after a fantastic season and some teams are starting well in Ligue 1 during one or two because they still have huge confidence on themselves. While Lyon is a mess with important players like Lacazette, Tolisso and Gonalons who gone and new guys who don't know this league.
                    I don't like the odds for overs (too low) but i won't be surprised to see guests scoring a goal so the Over 2,5 and BTTS @ 2,10 is for me very interesting.


                      Don't you think that the line for PSG is a little bit too high? I mean, yes, they did beat Monaco, but I don't think Monaco would have repeated their form from last season even if they had kept all their star players, which they didn't do. On the other hand I think there will be huge pressure on PSG to deliver and not just win, but win with flair, considering Neymar's arrival. So if after 20 or 30 minutes the result is still 0:0 they could get frustrated and fail to break down Amiens. They will surely win, but for some reason I get the feeling it might not be by more than 2 goals.


                        I don't think the line is too high no, because i think of a 4-0 or something.

                        Amiens is weak, even in ligue 2 i never considered them as one of the best team of the league and if Brest, Lens, Reims or other favourites had made the job they wouldn't never get the promotion.
                        And the team shouldn't be stronger than last season.
                        3 goals difference before KO looks huge but you have to look the quality difference, the fact that Amiens players have never played that kind of match and in that kind of stadium with so many attention from medias.
                        Moreover, PSG is used to play in Parc des Princes against teams which park the bus and once the 1st goal is scored everything is easier and they score 1 or 2 more even in the last half hour.
                        It will mostly depend on Cavani, this guy can be a sniper but can miss unbielevable chances aswell.

                        btw, if you're too scared to pick a big handicap, -1,5 in a combo material is pretty safe (or -2)
                        Last edited by Breizhtois; 04-08-17, 17:11.


                          Thank you for the info and for the answer!


                            Originally posted by Breizhtois View Post
                            I forget one of my main bet of the day ...

                            Lyon v Strasbourg

                            As i wrote in my 1st post, Lyon defense isn't trustable at all and one of the worst of the top 10.
                            Lyon will give us a lot of overs because the team isn't very well balanced and make a lot of tactical mistakes (who could be surprised with such a bad coach ?).
                            For this 1st match, i think Strasbourg has really a chance to grab something from Lyon. They come from Ligue 2 after a fantastic season and some teams are starting well in Ligue 1 during one or two because they still have huge confidence on themselves. While Lyon is a mess with important players like Lacazette, Tolisso and Gonalons who gone and new guys who don't know this league.
                            I don't like the odds for overs (too low) but i won't be surprised to see guests scoring a goal so the Over 2,5 and BTTS @ 2,10 is for me very interesting.
                            And Lyon also plays with incredibly high defense line, especially at home, when often the center backs sit as furher as the opposition half.

                            I love this coach with his style (for me he is "little Zdenek Zeman"). Yet, I hope they don't do "overs" in each game, as soon the odds on their overs will be 1.30, like in the last months of last season.


                              Hey guys! Here's my betting pick for today's Ligue 1

                              MONTPELLIER V CAEN

                              5 years since Montpellier claimed the Ligue 1 honors at odds 80/1, we saw the dramatic decline of this club. Last season, they completed their campaign at 15th place, only 3 points clear of the relegation zone. Now that Montpellier is changing approach, are we going to see them rise from the ashes?

                              Asian Handicap Betting Recommendation from @MarkOHaire: Under 2.5 Goals at 1.81

                              Make sure to check the full preview here before placing your bets

                              Best of luck!

                              -- Luke M


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