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    VerifiedTipsters.com

    As I'm sure all of you know, VerifiedTipsters.com, like BA, is a tips verification service.

    I have been banned by their service forum, allegedly for abusing it by posting new topics in order to create a wrong impression about VerifiedTipsters.

    These were essentially my questions.

    1) Why did VerifiedTipsters report an aggregated yield (i.e. the yield from all tipsters since verification began in 2007) of 4.8% from 80,000 tips when I calculated a figure of 6.8% (7.1% if standardised by stake size) from the same data as made available on the homepage?

    To put this question in context, I subscribe to the efficiency market hypothesis which essentially says that all available information about a betting prices will on average already be contained within that betting price, meaning that tipsters and punters on average will not do better than break even. Of course there will be variability due to good and bad luck, and a few may even be skilled enough to beat the market long term, but as in the financial industry, most are not and it is the reason why most punters lose money, and why my verification service Sports-Tipsters had an aggregated yield of 1% from 160,000 picks over 11 years from 250 tipsters(documented in full in my book), why the Punters Lounge tipping competition had about -1% from 160,000 picks from 579 individuals and why the Oddsportal community has a yield of just under 1% from over 3.3 million posted tips. Other multi-tipster portals like Betadvisor have shown the same.

    VerifiedTipsters don't deduct betfair commission. From observation of some of the records I would guess that about 25% of the verified tips are from Betfair. If I assume an average price of 2.00, then the effects of this undeducted commission will be in the region of 0.75 to 1%. So a post commission aggregated yield of about 6% from 80,000 tips is what we are looking at.

    I consider this to be very unusual (statistically speaking). I tried to stimulate a debate about it on the Verified Tipsters forum - http://www.verifiedtipsters.com/foru...p?topic=2855.0 - but got banned for my efforts.

    2) Where can I find out information about the Ph.D. that VerifiedTipsters service manager Mr. G. Wilson did under Professor Neil Keegan. Specifically, at what university research department did it take place, and were any papers published anywhere from the research that was carried about? Can I have a copy?

    I posted the question on their forum - http://www.verifiedtipsters.com/foru...p?topic=2864.0 - after the service assistant Mr. W Gardner repeatedly explained to me that G. Wilson had not returned from his leave of absence. I first mailed my request to VerifiedTipsters on the 11th July and on the 14th Mr Gardner told me G. Wilson would be back from his leave of absence early August. I mailed again on the 7th August but Mr Gardner told me Mr. Wilson should have been back but he'd probably taken more days off and couldn't be reached. He gave me another e-mail address to try. By the 19th August I had received no reply. Mr Gardner then told me that he was unavailable for another 3 weeks. On the 21st August I posted my question on the VerifiedTipsters forum.

    Here is the context. I first saw mention of Mr. Wilson's Ph.D on the "about us page - http://www.verifiedtipsters.com/about_us.php. VerifiedTipsters say that the website started as part of Mr Wilson’s Phd thesis on internet sports gambling under the supervision of Professor Neil Keegan, back in 2007. I'm in the process of pulling together reading material for my next book on gambling and though a Ph.D. on internet sports gambling and specifically fraud/scam tipping services would be worth a read and so wanted to get hold of a copy and/or any peer reviewed papers that may have come of it. Mr Gardner has also told me that Professor Neil Keegan has since retired to the Channel Isle of Jersey. After having to wait and wait for Wilson's failed return, I stated googling for their research and for Professor Neil Keegan. I cannot not find a single shed of information on any of it, unlike googling for other academics' research. I have since also found that talk of a Ph.D. by Mr. Wilson was only added to VerifiedTipsters about us page sometime in the spring of 2013. This can be confirmed via the Wayback archive.

    3) VerifiedTipsters's service manager has told the forum that they are based in the UK (http://www.verifiedtipsters.com/foru...hp?topic=121.0). The IP address of the website is Leeds, England. However, they have told us (http://www.verifiedtipsters.com/foru...?topic=2832.60 and http://www.verifiedtipsters.com/foru...?topic=2855.15) that the website cannot accept advertising for gambling products for legal reasons. Earning an income from gambling advertising is perfectly legal from within the UK. The specific question I posted about this has since been deleted but I have screenshots to prove that I posted it.

    The context is that if the owners are registered in the UK why do they claim that they cannot earn from gambling advertising?

    The wider context is that over the past couple of years it has been suggested to me that VerifiedTipsters is not all that appears to be, and that it supports its own services in a country other than the UK, in and amongst the many services that it verifies independently. Every time someone has suggested this to me, I have explained that unless I am shown any evidence to the contrary, I would continue to believe that VerifiedTipsters is fully open and transparent, and throughout that time I have continued to refer tipsters to them for verification where I have opted not to verify them myself.

    Now that I have spent 7 weeks trying to find out about a Ph.D and the professor who oversaw it and got nowhere, now that I've found that VerifiedTipsters aren't interested in discussing the implications of a large positive yield from a large aggregated tips dataset, and now that I have had seemingly straightforward posts deleted and my forum account closed despite having broken no rules, I am left to wonder.

    Your opinions, without defamation, are appreciated.

    #2
    It is service vs.service confrontation or what ?Anyway u sad that they came with some positive result and u calculated even more positive.So what's the deal,problem in calculations or problem in general like no tipster can do better than break even?

    Comment


      #3
      To be clear, this is not a confrontation. This is about transparency and free debate. VerifiedTipsters have taken the decision, rightly or wrongly, to censor my discussion. I'm asking for other people's opinions about that in the context of the things I was asking them about, which I've spelt out above.

      Regarding the yield figure, of course some tipsters can do better than break even, but if you subscribe to efficient market hypothesis, which I do based on all the other tips datasets I've had the opportunity of analysing, then on average you expect all yields to be roughly normally distributed about a mean close to 0%. An aggregated 6.8% from 300 tipsters and 80,000 tips (even with betfair commission in there) presents a challenge to that hypothesis. Either the hypothesis needs updating or there is something unique about the data.

      Have a read of http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Efficie...ket_hypothesis if you want more details about why all of this matters to me.

      For me now, the credibility of VerifiedTipsters can be tested by the verification of Mr. G. Wilson's Ph.D. thesis, and where he and his Professor Neil Keegan undertook that research. If it exists then the institution where it was carried out will most likely have a copy. And even if they don't, they will be able to verify for me that this work actually happened.

      So with that in mind, I'm offering £100 to the first person who can get me a copy of that Ph.D (I'll pay for any costs involved) and who can verify where Professor Keegan was employed and what his speciality was.

      If it's real, it's all very easily verifiable and I'm perfectly happy for them and anyone else to make a fool out of me in this context, because I'd actually like to read this research into scam/fraud tipping services that G. Wilson claims to have carried out.

      Perhaps none of this matters to you, disident, and perhaps not to others either. But it matters to me, and I don't really have to account for that, I just have to ask for help from others to whom it might matter also.

      Comment


        #4
        Yep,6.8 units on every 100 invested on 80000 tips it is very much.1 unit per bet will bring 5440 profit!

        Comment


          #5
          I have read that about EMH and maybe it is just like Paul Samuelson is sayin EMH is better suited for individual stock prices movement rather than aggregate stock market.Or it is just possible that they are verifying the best tipsters/insiders on the market.Good read anyway you are returning me to economics,i had quit faculty 4 exams to graduation

          Comment


            #6
            I dont know why but from the day i registered there, i will receive everyday spam email about fixed matches from some stupid scammers... But i knew that i have not been the only with This problem.

            Comment


              #7
              Originally posted by disident View Post
              Or it is just possible that they are verifying the best tipsters/insiders on the market.
              That is always possible, but they claim that tipsters come to them, they do not go looking for tipsters. That's just as it is on Sports-Tipsters, as it is on the Punters Lounge, as it is at Oddsportal. Of course, it's still possible that VerifiedTipsters could have somehow attracted an amazing (on average) sample of 300 tipsters, but I contend that this is statistically hugely unlikely. I've never seen such a thing anywhere else.

              Within the database there are some highly questionable figures. A tipster called Card trader for example was responsible for a yield of 24.59% from 1,468 picks at average odds of 1.49. It's not even clear what the betting market was here (it's not sports), but whatever it is, don't you think that if such an inefficient market had ever once existed, it would not have existed for very long and certainly not for 5 years over which it was verified. Just one unprofitable month in 5 years. The probability of this record happening by chance is 1 in 24900000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 0000000000. As soon as an advantage is found, information quickly leaks out, so it doesn't last very long.

              There is a sports tipster on there with a yield of 15% from 2,097 picks, average odds 2.01, probability 1 in 300 billion. Success has not been so good in the last year but from February 2008 to April 2010 - 27 months - there was just 1 unprofitable month. With so few pick per month (average 33) it's just unreasonable to expect that there can be so few losing runs capable of making a month negative. Even the best tipsters have losing runs, now and again. So many consecutive positive months from so few tips per months just doesn't look statistically realistic.

              Naturally, I have no concrete evidence that these figures aren't genuine. It's all purely circumstantial based on theory. But if the people I'm asking questions about the data censor me, and either won't or can't verify Neil Keegan's professorship and G. Wilson's Ph.D., you can see how certain conclusions might be jumped to.

              There are so many more people in the world that want to convince you that a long term market inefficiency is genuine than there are people who are genuinely capable of sustaining a long term market inefficiency. The ratio of sharks to sharps is probably 100 or 1000 to 1 and there are probably 100 or 1000 times as many suckers ready to fall for it.

              Comment


                #8
                Originally posted by packito84 View Post
                I dont know why but from the day i registered there, i will receive everyday spam email about fixed matches from some stupid scammers... But i knew that i have not been the only with This problem.
                Are you able to post details, or if you prefer not to, forward me some of the example mail to me if you still have any? You can find my e-mail address at the bottom of http://sports-tipsters.co.uk/contact.php

                Comment


                  #9
                  No problem JoeB, i receive costantly email spammer from poland users (i'm italian) and from some fake sites, Talking with a friend, he says me that he used a email address only for That forum and after registration he received some emails that i received, so 1+1=2.

                  Comment


                    #10
                    Originally posted by JoeB View Post

                    Within the database there are some highly questionable figures. A tipster called Card trader for example was responsible for a yield of 24.59% from 1,468 picks at average odds of 1.49. It's not even clear what the betting market was here (it's not sports), but whatever it is, don't you think that if such an inefficient market had ever once existed, it would not have existed for very long and certainly not for 5 years over which it was verified. Just one unprofitable month in 5 years. The probability of this record happening by chance is 1 in 24900000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 0000000000. As soon as an advantage is found, information quickly leaks out,

                    There is a sports tipster on there with a yield of 15% from 2,097 picks, average odds 2.01, probability 1 in 300 billion.
                    It is possible for some tipsters.Anyone remember Komso?Nowhere to be seen lately after he was exposed.Winner of POD yearly competition twice(2000 euros making fool of everyone here).Check his stats at betrush.He is all time high there with 18 percent ROI over 1000 tips.Guy was betting on unknown leagues like Iran handball or Columbia basketball,betting on underdogs against huge handi lines like 60 points.Statistical bets ofc. when it is great possibility favorites to stop punishing opponents similar like tanking in NBA or just a relax moment.This markets are low.Bet365 will except only 5 euros limit per bet.U can't make money on that.But Komso did make money out of POD...
                    So it is possible for some tipsters but unlikely for 300 as u said.I agree!

                    Comment


                      #11
                      It's very good that Joe raised this problem over here, as I have an even more straightforward opinion about VerifiedTipsters.com.

                      I won't make it long as Joe already brought some good questions on the table, I'll just add that from my point of view, VerifiedTipsters.com is a scam ring. Yes, I don't have technical proves to show you that, but all this bull **** about exorbitant records and amazing tipsters that only VerifiedTipsters.com produce, not to mention many other aspects I've been noticing while proofing my own service with them for a while, brought me to one real conclusion: it's a scam, and it's not a typical scam.

                      To make it short: verifiedTipsters.com is composed of two parts.

                      1. Their own (in-house) paid services that manipulate records when no subscribers

                      2. Some honest services like Andrei Nitu for example or others, so that it looked real.

                      This explains why they sell by pick and why the monthly fees are very high, quite different to what real and honest services usually do.

                      It's nearly impossible to have proves against them, because they only cheat when one of their services has no subscribers. So they could virtually manipulate anything. When at least one customer joins the service, they will make it look real and stay honest. But as they sell by pick most of the time, the life of a VerifiedTipsters.com paid service customer is usually short (it's not like you would subscriber for one season 0 it would cost you the house probably), and this allows them to easily manipulate their stats just in case something went bad during the times they were doing it for real.

                      I hope you understand what I did mean. Just watch them out and don't even think Joe or I, are writing here just for the sake of competition. There can't be any competition when you deal with scammers.
                      Your Asian Handicap Soccer Betting Guide: http://forum.bettingadvice.com/showthread.php?t=91021

                      Comment


                        #12
                        Originally posted by TEDDIE21 View Post
                        [...]not to mention many other aspects I've been noticing while proofing my own service with them for a while[...]

                        this is important I think, what did u notice during proofing ur service?

                        Comment


                          #13
                          Originally posted by disident View Post
                          So it is possible for some tipsters but unlikely for 300 as u said.I agree!
                          Just to be clear, not all of those 300 tipsters were/are profitable. In fact of the 296 on the database (their homepage), 173 or 58.4% of them were.

                          That figure is slightly higher than I would expect but not unreasonable.

                          The problem is with the aggregated yield and also the number of tips supplied by the "winners" versus the number of tips supplied by the losers.

                          Naturally one would expect losers to give up sooner than winners so we would expect more tips to be on a database from winners than losers which will have some influence in pushing the aggregated average above 0% (but not much if most of the tipsters, winners and losers are lucky/unlucky rather than skilled - I've tested it).

                          For the VT database it is 80%. This is pretty high. For my verified database it's considerably lower at closer to 70%.

                          Of course 80% is still possible but I maintain unlikely unless a significantly above average proportion of the verified tipsters there are skilled and not just lucky/unlucky. IF VT claim that the tipsters come to them, as they do for Sports-Tipsters, its highly unlikely that there could be some many skilled tipsters that push the percentage of tips from winners to 80% and the aggregated average yield to 6 or 7%.

                          Teddie's theory is one possible way that this could happen.

                          But there is no proof, only circumstantial evidence, and I'm not in the business of making claims against a verification service unless I can prove they are cheating.

                          What I can do is ask for evidence of the Ph.D. that the service owner claims to have completed, and I can asked where this was carried out and where Professor Keegan was employed to tutor G. Wilson as his student.

                          This was one of the reasons VT censored me from their forum.

                          So today I have be in contact with a number of well known and highly regarded academics in the field of gambling, gambling economics and gambling policy to see if any of them had come across the name Professor Neil Keegan and a Ph.D. by a G. Wilson.

                          2 have so far replied

                          The first of them said:

                          "I'm 99% sure that neither Wilson or Keegan exist. UNLV have an archive of gambling PhDs and although there are two wilsons there is no PhD like the one you describe."

                          http://gaming.unlv.edu/reading/published_diss.html

                          The second one (some of you may very well have read his book) said:

                          "I have no knowledge of said persons and am reasonably confident that I would be aware of the work referred to if it was part of the mainstream academic discourse. Further, casual observation would suggest that the author/s of the website text is/are unlikely to be native English speakers."

                          This is interesting, because many of the implicated services verified by VT that have been suggested to belong to part of this ring are not from the UK. Furthermore, it would account for why the VT owners maintain they are unable to legally earn revenue from gambling advertising. That is perfectly legal in the UK. There is plenty of other written text I can refer to in VT's own posts that would lead any native English speaker to suspect that the author of this texts is not himself a native English speaker.

                          Of course, it doesn't really matter whether he's English or otherwise, what matters is whether and why he's been prepared to lie about where he is operating from. As the owner of a verification service I would have though it essential to treat honesty and transparency with the utmost importance. I suppose if you are prepared to lie about where you are operating from, and you are prepared to fake your own Ph.D and Professorship, then you might be prepared to do other things to.

                          A second library source of Ph.Ds is UK only:

                          http://ethos.bl.uk/Home.do

                          Again, however, there is no evidence of any gambling Ph.D by a G. Wilson. 3 Neil Keegans can be found, but none have carried out research in that field. An presumably none of them are yet old enough to have retired to Jersey, as has been claimed.

                          So on that basis I am prepared to stick my neck out here and say that G.Wilson's Ph.D and Neil Keegan's professorship are fake. They do not exist. And the reason VT's service manager refused to answer me and then ultimately censored me was not because G.Wilson was unavailable for comment for 7 long weeks but because he didn't want to tell me the truth.

                          If you trawl through VT's forum archive long enough (you need to register and then look at the past posts of VerifiedTipsters) Neil Keegan is the name that appears for the first few years and then G. Wilson is introduced some time in 2011. February 2013 Keegan makes a post attacking a service called Snakebet and then complains he has to attend to a professors' meeting because it's end of semester 1 exams. This is the only time the word "professor" is mentioned in the forum as far as I can see. Within a few months, the "About Us" page on the main website is changed include the text the website being born out of G. Wislon's Ph.D. and work with Professor Neil Keegan. Then earlier this year a W. Garndner shows up and he's the name I was dealing with since July because G. Wilson is off around the world on business and leisure trips (flying up to 4 times a week).

                          I'd been interested to know how he funds that if his only income is verification subscriptions. With currently close to 100 active tipsters being verified, at 85 Euro per quarter than translates into a gross revenue of just 34,000 Euro. That will be a maximum since 2007. For most of the years since the site started, subscription revenue will presumably have been much less than that. A simply Wayback archive check can reveal how many active tipsters will have been paying VT. This is not enough to pay staff to manage your website and then jet around the world 4 times a week. Perhaps he's visiting Neil's grandchildren in Jersey. Perhaps if he really is he has other sources of income. If Teddie is correct, we can guess where.

                          But I'm happy for VerifiedTipsters to come out of their hiding place and make a fool of me. Show us all this Ph.D by G. Wilson, and tell us where Professor Neil Keegan was worrying about semester 1 exams, and then I can eat humble pie and begin to rebuild my faith in a project that for so long I respected but now I think has lost all its credibility. It would be far more important to me that VT can prove its honesty and transparency even if that means's making me look like a complete idiot.

                          So I'll double that offer to £200.

                          Just as a final comment, in the last weeks I was receiving abuse for being involved with the new Pyckio.com project. Despite revealing openly my role and stake in the new company (I wrote the university, helped create the tipsters ranking algorithm and will facilitate advertising relationships with the bookmakers in the future, for a 5% stake) and terminating my verification of the service Sportty on the grounds that it would be a conflict of interest, I was accused by members, not necessarily associated with the VT management) of being involved in a scam.

                          So here is the scam. Today I asked one of the co-founders for the aggregated yield of the tips advised so far by the everyone who has registered so far.

                          92,274 picks
                          from 1,237 tipsters
                          aggregated yield = -3.31%
                          A significant majority of those tipsters are currently losing.

                          So much for the scam.

                          All picks are given with either Pinnacle or Bet365 prices. It is therefore perfectly clear why the aggregated yield is this figure. Along with the Sports-Tipsters database, the Punters Lounge Tipster Competition databse and the Oddsportal community database, this is just more evidence of wisdom of crowds and the efficient market hypothesis. Of course some tipsters will do well, some not so well, but most just operate on luck (good or bad) and few can consistently beat the market in the long run.

                          The VerifiedTipsters database is the odd one out and until their owners can openly account for who they really are then I maintain their credibility is shot.

                          Comment


                            #14
                            To make it short: verifiedTipsters.com is composed of two parts.

                            1. Their own (in-house) paid services that manipulate records when no subscribers

                            Hi

                            I have to said interesting topic, because we are Verified almost 1 year there so im asking myself which services are "their own". I know i wont get answer by myself, because i dont know that is why i asking you to tell me and everybody which services are their own?

                            Kindly Regards, Betting-advices

                            Comment


                              #15
                              Originally posted by TEDDIE21 View Post

                              To make it short: verifiedTipsters.com is composed of two parts.

                              1. Their own (in-house) paid services that manipulate records when no subscribers
                              Hi

                              I have to said interesting topic, because we are Verified almost 1 year there so im asking myself which services are "their own". I know i wont get answer by myself, because i dont know that is why i asking you to tell me and everybody which services are their own?

                              Kindly Regards, Betting-advices

                              Comment

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