Eurovision 2022

[nelle]

United Kingdom has the great song this Eurovision 2022. My favorite for the win.

[WiserthantheCrowd]

Any other year the UK would probably have gone into this as the favorite. It certainly sounds like the most radio-friendly song (which is one of the criteria for the juries) and it has a really sweet spot in the running order (coming toward the end). But this isn't a year like any other. Normally Ukraine would not stand out. Rap has never done that well at Eurovision even if it comes in the guise of folk. But I think Ukraine will be tough to beat in the popular vote. There now are a lot of Ukrainians in places such as the Baltics, Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, etc. The diaspora will fuel the public vote for their home country and then there is the big question of how many other people might be inclined to support Ukraine by voting for them in Eurovision. They could really trounce the public vote.

Nonetheless, I think the juries may take a more sober approach and reward the song rather than voting politically thus setting up a nice head-to-head contest for the win.

The UK to win at 10 isn't a bad bet. I've also put up some money for the UK to beat Italy (at 2) and to come out as the strongest of the big 5 (at 3.5).