Rugby League - 2021

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Brisbane Broncos vs New Zealand Warriors

The Broncos have improved their game in the past one month or so. They are scoring points, they are covering handicaps and last week they put on their probably best performance of the season to be narrowly denied by the Roosters (title contenders) in the last minute (20-21).
The Broncos have been very poor the last couple of seasons and they are now lifting.
The Warriors are still in with a chance to catch the last play-off spot. They are coming off 3 consecutive wins, even though 2 were against lower opposition and one against a competitor for the last play-off spot.
The way Broncos are playing right now and on their home ground in front of their fans, they should be in with a good chance to win this and score some points. They have topped 20 points in five of their last six at their home ground, including against better opposition than the Warriors tonight.

Bet 1: Brisbane @2.00
Bet 2: Team Total Points - Brisbane Over 22.5 @1.91

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Newcastle Knights vs Gold Coast Titans

The match is played on the Sunshine Coast, basically a home game for the Titans.
The Knights are on 24 points on 7th, followed by three teams on 20 points with two games remaining.

After this match the Knights play against Brisbane Broncos.

The Titans winning run of form came to an end at the hands of the Rabbitohs and Storm last week, but they still played some great footy against the Storm and were leading 16-12 at half time.
The Titans have lots to play for and are in with realistic chances to make it to the play-offs.

Given the porous Knights defence, I'll take the Titans on Team Total as well.

Bet 1: Titans @1.83
Bet 2: Team Total - Titans Over 22.5 points @1.82

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NZ Warriors vs Canberra Raiders

Both teams are fighting for the last play-off spot. The Raiders are two points (one win) ahead of the Warriors.
The Warriors wasted a great opportunity last week as they lost to lowly Brisbane Broncos, a match they should have won.
The Raiders are a higher quality team and they should win this.

Bet: Canberra -5.5 @1.85

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Sydney Roosters vs South Sydney Rabbitohs

This is the biggest and oldest rivalry in rugby league. Both teams are sitting next to each other on the ladder, however the Rabbitohs (3rd) are 6 points ahead.
The roosters are decimated with injuries this season, and yet they managed to maintain themselves in the top 4. They did lose their games against top opposition, and although the handicap is huge at 14.5, the Roosters have lost some games at huge margins this year.
Both teams play attacking style, they score a lot of points, including when they play against each other, and in nice conditions in Brisbane, they should go past the total set here.
Twelve of South Sydney's last 16 matches have gone over the total match points line.

Bet: Over 48.0 points @1.85

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I've also taken the Rabbitohs to win at an alternative handicap, team totals at alternative total and an alternative match total, as I think they can cover those numbers.
They should control and win the match, especially with the Roosters missing so many players through injury.

Bet 2: Rabbitohs (-7.5) + Rabbitohs Over (25.5) + Over (42.5) @2.00

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Rugby League

Cronulla Sharks vs Brisbane Broncos

This match is played at Broncos home ground in Brisbane.
Last month in the first match between these two sides, the Broncos won 26-18 at the same stadium.
The Sharks have been a bit inconsistent lately, as they lost a couple of good opportunities to win and secure their play-off spot, but lost to two teams that were competing with them for the last play-off spots. Now the Sharks must win this match to stay in contention, but the Broncos have been improving in the second part of this season.
They did lose some matches, but they were against top teams and they kept tight nonetheless.
Last week they beat NZ Warriors, a play-off contender, and took them out of the play-offs run.
Now they face the Sharks and I think that they will put up another good performance, especially on their home ground and in front of their fans, like in the first match.

Bet: Brisbane Broncos +7.5 @1.80

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Melbourne Storm vs Parramatta Eels

Melbourne Storm are the best attacking team in the league and they have the second best defensive record.
Josh Addo-Carr (Melbourne Storm) needs one try to break the record of most tries scored in one season for his team.
He is the fastest in the league, he is a try scoring machine, he is going to do it.

The handicap is big, but the Eels do not do well against top teams and they have lost by big margins, 10-56 to Manly, 12-40 to the Rabbitohs, 0-28 to the Roosters, and all these in the past one month.

Bet 1: Melbourne -23.5 @1.90
Bet 2: Melbourne -15.5 (Alt handicap) + Addo-Carr any time try scorer @1.80

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Manly Sea Eagles vs Canterbury Bulldogs

The Sea Eagles are charging towards the finals. They have two matches left to play and both are against the bottom two teams.
They are coming off two big wins against the top 4 Parramatta Eels and play-off contender Canberra Raiders.
The Sea Eagles are currently sitting 6th and they can finish in top 4.
The Bulldogs are rooted to the bottom of the ladder, with 2 wins in 22 matches.
When the teams met just eight weeks back, Manly downed Canterbury 66-0 in a match the Sea Eagles blew numerous opportunities in. That day the last-placed Canterbury was missing more than half its team.

The scenario is alarmingly similar today. The Bulldogs will be without six players, through suspension, disciplinary actions or players that have been returned at the end of their loan period.

A last-placed team cannot afford to lose that level of talent. It becomes even more stark when it comes up against a Top 3 attacking side that has scored 40-plus points in six of their last 10. The best player in the competition, Tom Trbojevic of Manly Sea Eagles returns.

The match is set to be played on a fast pitch in afternoon conditions with good weather.

Bet 1: Manly HT Team Total Over 20.5 @1.96
Bet 2: Manly FT Team Total Over 44.5 @1.98
Bet 3: Manly HT -15.5 @1.80
Bet 4: Manly FT -34.5 @1.90

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Penrith Panthers vs Wests Tigers

The Tigers had their chance to challenge for the play-offs last week but they blew the opportunity away in a 20-50 humiliation by Cronulla.
Nothing in that match with their season on the line suggests that they will offer much of a challenge today.

The Panthers are nearing full strength with key players returning each week and are regaining momentum at the perfect time after a rash of injuries caused this team to struggle.
They look to be near their best again, and they will take enormous confidence into the penultimate round after beating the Rabbitohs (3rd placed team, equal on points with Panthers, Panthers with this game in hand) comfortably last weekend, 25-12.

The Panthers are now sitting second, 2 points behind Melbourne Storm.

Bet: Penrith -29.5 @1.91

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Cronulla Sharks vs Melbourne Storm

This is the final round of the regular season. The match is played in Queensland, neutral ground.

The Sharks are on the edge in terms of qualifying to the play-offs. They must not lose too badly tonight (Melbourne Storm are the best team so far) and also hope that tomorrow the Titans will not be able to recover the points differential that separates these two teams in the fight for the last play-off spot. However, if the Sharks win tonight, then they are into the play-offs.

Melbourne had a horror night last time out, as their top try scorer Josh Addo-Carr went out with a hamstring injury and Jesse Bromwich got suspended, so they are ruled out of this matchup. Their coach has again opted - as he did last year - to rest several other starting players for the final round.
Even so, Melbourne still have very good players in the reserves, so they might still be too good for this Sharks team.
They need to win to secure the minor premiership.
The Storm played with their B team before during this season and they were hard to beat then too. Not only that, but they kept winning. They had 19 wins in a row until last week, so now they have to bounce back.

Bet: Melbourne -7.5 @1.88

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Parramatta Eels vs Penrith Panthers

Both teams are into the play-offs. The Eels are 6th, the Panthers are second, equal on points with the league leaders Melbourne.
The Eels have named a virtual reserve squad to take on Penrith.
It**8217;s going to be a big task for the inexperienced players including a debuting full-back.

Ivan Cleary (Panthers) is going all-in with a full strength squad for this one.
The Panthers are about equal to the league leaders Melbourne Storm, both in points and in quality.
Penrith Panthers will win comfortably, they'll be too skilful for the Eels tonight.
Parramatta have no more than a try in them, against this Panthers team, who have the best defence in the league, having conceded fewer points than Melbourne.

The Panthers will score as much as they want.

Bet 1: Panthers -28.5 @1.94
Bet 2: Team Total Tries - Eels Under 1.5 @1.72
Bet 3: Team Total Points - Panthers Over 36.5 @1.92

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North Queensland Cowboys vs Manly Sea Eagles

The Cowboys have had a season to forget and this is the last game of the season.
The Sea Eagles are through to the play-offs and with a win here they jump to 4th, which means advantage in the play-offs (One of the advantages given to teams in the top four is that they cannot be eliminated if they lose in the first week.
However, the winners of these finals have a bye in the second week and host a preliminary final in their home state in the third week).

The Sea Eagles have been involved in the most high scoring matches than any other team.
The Cowboys are in top 4 highest scoring matches.
This year the Sea Eagles have averaged 40.27 points per game when winning - the best such rate in the league.

Bet 1: Total Points Over 53.5 @1.93
Bet 2: Team Total Points - Sea Eagles Over 37.5 @1.82

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South Sydney Rabbitohs vs St George Illawarra Dragons

The Rabbitohs are 3rd on the ladder and into the play-offs. They cannot move from 3rd.
The Dragons are in the bottom half.

The Rabbitohs named a second string squad for this match, with only five regulars in the team.

The Dragons have been bad lately, having lost 7 in a row, but at least have named a first grade team.
This is a bad first grade team against a reserve team.
I'm going with the bad team, as at least they've got the first choice players.

Bet 1: Dragons +4.5 @1.87
Bet 2: Over 51.5 points @1.90

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Gold Coast Titans vs New Zealand Warriors

The Warriors are out of the finals contention.
The Titans have had the results go their way and both Canberra and Cronulla lost their last matches of the regular season. This gives the Titans the opportunity to play for the last play-off spot on home ground in front of their own fans.
Gold Coast on home turf in warm and dry conditions should be able to run in a big score against the Warriors and cover the difference they need, which is exactly what the bookies set the handicap at: 12 points.

Bet: Gold Coast Titans -11.5 @1.90

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Melbourne Storm vs Manly Sea Eagles

Cameron Munster has been confirmed for tonight in Storm's squad, after a knee injury.
The Storm have cruised through this season and Papenhuyzen is back in great form after his concussion, at the right time.

Manly Sea Eagles are heavily reliant on Trbojevic, but last time they played, one month ago, Melbourne beat them 28-18, with Tom in Manly's line up.

The Sea Eagles may have finished top 4, but in their last few games, before they crushed the lowly Cowboys in the last round, they struggled against Canberra, who didn't make it to the finals, and struggled against the Bulldogs for more than 60 minutes until they moved ahead on the scoreboard.

Melbourne Storm have been (again) the benchmark in 2021, recording 19 consecutive victories on their way to yet another minor premiership.

Bet: Storm -7.5 @1.83