Tokyo Olympic Games to take place as scheduled?

[WiserthantheCrowd]

Betfair and Smarket offer bets on whether the Olympic games will take place. The odds are roughly even right now. Elsewhere you can bet on whether there will be spectators.

I've got a very strong opinion about this and I will explain my thinking. But first I'd like to see what you think. Please post your opinions.

[cele]

It needs to go ahead, even if behind closed doors and with less participants. Some of these niche sports only survive because of the Olympic cycle and the exposure it brings - cancellation would be a disaster. Organization comitee confirms this as well. I believe that some countries will maybe decide not to participate, but the competition will be held in one way or another. Japanese are surely capable organizing it even in these conditions.

[cele]

On the contrary, looking at the pandemic around the world and current situation in Tokyo, it does look unlikely to happen. I'm sure they have a cancellation plan ready somewhere in drawers, but are still loking for ways to avoid it.

[WiserthantheCrowd]

It needs to go ahead, even if behind closed doors and with less participants. Some of these niche sports only survive because of the Olympic cycle and the exposure it brings - cancellation would be a disaster. Organization comitee confirms this as well. I believe that some countries will maybe decide not to participate, but the competition will be held in one way or another. Japanese are surely capable organizing it even in these conditions.

I totally agree with this analysis. This is going to go ahead, and the likelihood of it being canceled is minimal. Last year it got postponed in March because that is when countries started going into lockdown and a couple of countries pulled out of the event. But that won't happen again. Those countries that are worried about their athletes getting infected or bringing infection back will vaccinate them. I don't think anyone is going to pull out. If anything, there is resistance and fatigue among the Japanese public but there is too much at stake for the organizers to cancel the event. The Olympic village has been sold and the Olympic stadium has been built for this purpose. In the case of a cancellation, Japan also has to reimburse the IOC for the lost income (broadcasting and sponsoring). So it would be a total disaster for Japan to cancel now. There also is prestige at stake because China will most certainly hold the upcoming Winter Olympics.

The IOC basically has 2 products to sell namely the summer and winter Olympics and their brand would take a hit if the event were to be canceled in peacetime. To date, only the Olympics in 1916, 1940, and 1944 have been canceled because of world wars. (Last year was the first time the event got postponed.) In the case of a cancellation, the IOC would lose its only source of income (almost 80% of the income of the IOC is made through broadcasting, and the remainder with sponsoring related to the event). And Japan would have to pay the IOC. Apparently, the event also is insured to some degree but I think the insurance companies may be hesitant to pay in the event of cancelation because other sporting events are taking place. So this would almost certainly end up in court.

I think the chance of the event being called off is very small. And it won't be postponed again because that would interfere with the broadcasting schedule for sports.

Whether there will be spectators is a totally different question. The IOC doesn't care about this because they make no money off spectators (that is something for the host country). My own hunch is that there will be spectators but that Japan won't allow many foreign tourists into the country (if at all).

[gwen]

I read that the Japanese business community has committed to over 3 Billion USD in sponsorship cash for the games, that is 3 times the amount of any previous Olympics.

The Tokyo bid was the prized child of former PM Shinzo Abe who saw the Olympics was an golden opportunity to revive the struggling Japanese economy, just like it did in 1964, the last time Tokyo was the host city

Abe is no longer the PM but one would assume there are just too many stakeholders whose interests are on the line for the games to not go ahead