The US will also hold congressional elections this year. Members of the US House of Representatives are up for reelection every 2 years. Members of the US Senate are elected for a 6-year term. This year 35 senate seats are being contested, 23 of these are held by Republicans and 12 by Democrats.
At present Republicans have a 53-47 majority in the Senate. There are 2 independent senators who are caucusing with the Democrats (one of them is Bernie Sanders).
Most of the senate seats aren't really competitive since they are safe Democrat or Republican seats. You can see this here:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...recast/senate/
Here is a nice map to visualize it:
https://www.270towin.com/2020-senate...enate-forecast
Democrats are currently projected to win Arizona and Colorado while Republicans are likely to win back Alabama which Democrats won in a special election. There really only are a handful of seats that are truly competitive. These states include Iowa, North Carolina, Maine, and Montana.
The most likely scenario is that Democrats will gain control of the Senate by a narrow margin of 1 or 2 or maybe even just the VP. While Trump's chances have nosedived in the last week, things aren't looking that bad for Republicans in the Senate. The Democratic candidate in North Carolina - Cal Cunningham - who ran a campaign based on his character has been caught up in a sex scandal and will now have to recalibrate his messaging. While he was overperforming Biden in the polls, he will likely end up underperforming him and the state will be very tight on election day.
In Maine, Susan Collins (Republican) will get the opportunity to showcase her independence when she votes against the Republican Supreme Court nominee. She certainly has a lot of appeal to non-partisan voters and it is too early to write her off.
In Montana, Democrats are running a strong challenge because they have enlisted a popular Democrat governor but this is a largely rural and conservative state so that I think that Steve Daines (the current senator) may sit this through.
Betfair Exchange offers a market on this election which you can find here:
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plu...et/1.170351353
There are 3 options:
- Republican Majority
- No Majority
- Democratic Majority
Technically it is not possible for there to be no majority since the Vice President would cast the deciding vote. But a majority is defined as 51 seats according to the rules. HOWEVER, the rules also state that Independents caucusing with either party will not count for the purposes of this market. :-)
I think some people that are betting on this market haven't read the rules. Basically, the 2 independents that caucus with the Democrats don't count for the purposes of this market, nor will the independent that is running as a Democrat in Alaska. So for there to be a Democratic Majority, the Senate would have to switch from 53 - 47 in reverse (and even that may not suffice if Al Gross wins in Alaska). This just isn't very likely to happen even if it looks like Biden will comfortably win the presidential election right now.
Currently, Democratic Majority is trading at 2.3, No Majority is at 3.4, while Republican Majority is at 3.7.
The odds on a Republican Majority look right to me but No Majority should be trading much lower while Democratic Majority should be far above 3.
Any odds above 2.5 on No Majority are a real gift! I think No Majority is by far the likeliest of the 3 options on this market.
At present Republicans have a 53-47 majority in the Senate. There are 2 independent senators who are caucusing with the Democrats (one of them is Bernie Sanders).
Most of the senate seats aren't really competitive since they are safe Democrat or Republican seats. You can see this here:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...recast/senate/
Here is a nice map to visualize it:
https://www.270towin.com/2020-senate...enate-forecast
Democrats are currently projected to win Arizona and Colorado while Republicans are likely to win back Alabama which Democrats won in a special election. There really only are a handful of seats that are truly competitive. These states include Iowa, North Carolina, Maine, and Montana.
The most likely scenario is that Democrats will gain control of the Senate by a narrow margin of 1 or 2 or maybe even just the VP. While Trump's chances have nosedived in the last week, things aren't looking that bad for Republicans in the Senate. The Democratic candidate in North Carolina - Cal Cunningham - who ran a campaign based on his character has been caught up in a sex scandal and will now have to recalibrate his messaging. While he was overperforming Biden in the polls, he will likely end up underperforming him and the state will be very tight on election day.
In Maine, Susan Collins (Republican) will get the opportunity to showcase her independence when she votes against the Republican Supreme Court nominee. She certainly has a lot of appeal to non-partisan voters and it is too early to write her off.
In Montana, Democrats are running a strong challenge because they have enlisted a popular Democrat governor but this is a largely rural and conservative state so that I think that Steve Daines (the current senator) may sit this through.
Betfair Exchange offers a market on this election which you can find here:
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plu...et/1.170351353
There are 3 options:
- Republican Majority
- No Majority
- Democratic Majority
Technically it is not possible for there to be no majority since the Vice President would cast the deciding vote. But a majority is defined as 51 seats according to the rules. HOWEVER, the rules also state that Independents caucusing with either party will not count for the purposes of this market. :-)
I think some people that are betting on this market haven't read the rules. Basically, the 2 independents that caucus with the Democrats don't count for the purposes of this market, nor will the independent that is running as a Democrat in Alaska. So for there to be a Democratic Majority, the Senate would have to switch from 53 - 47 in reverse (and even that may not suffice if Al Gross wins in Alaska). This just isn't very likely to happen even if it looks like Biden will comfortably win the presidential election right now.
Currently, Democratic Majority is trading at 2.3, No Majority is at 3.4, while Republican Majority is at 3.7.
The odds on a Republican Majority look right to me but No Majority should be trading much lower while Democratic Majority should be far above 3.
Any odds above 2.5 on No Majority are a real gift! I think No Majority is by far the likeliest of the 3 options on this market.
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