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US Presidential Election 2020

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    Guys, excellent thread! Thanks!

    Kl1n, you mentioned that Trump is honest. What do you mean by that? He continually lies about mostly everything. He even capable to deny what he himself said before.

    The NY Times published an article about his tax avoiding. How do you guys see it affects his chances? Does it affect the election at all?


      The debates are overrated in terms of their influence to impact the outcome but they certainly tend to lead to a little bit of volatility in the betting markets...

      I don't think the tax revelations by the New York Times have helped Trump but I don't see it as a game-changer either. Ominously, however, the NYT has announced that there are more revelations to come which means that Trump will face more headwind in the coming weeks...

      In the short-term, the media will be consumed by the appointment of another conservative justice to the Supreme Court which will play well with conservative voters but probably won't help Trump make inroads with the 5-6% of voters who are still undecided.

      It is true that there is no central election commission in the US and while there are such institutions on the state level, there also are significant differences between different counties in terms of the voting machines that are used, the availability of early voting, and staffing (thus impacting turnout)...

      Early voting has already started and it's all about turnout now. One disadvantage for Democrats is that more of their voters are inclined to postal voting which Trump has vilified but which has been practiced successfully in many states for a long time. This does not include the swing states, however, and many of them have introduced requirements that may lead to a high rejection of postal votes. In Pennsylvania, for example, voters need to place their ballot in a (secret) envelope within an envelope and if they do not do so, it will be rejected. Elsewhere they need to obtain a signature of a witness or fill out some additional information that needs to be sent with their ballot. In these states in which there was little postal voting in the past, 30% or more of voters may now vote postally and 60-70% of those voters are projected to be Democrats while 5% of ballots (or more) may be rejected because of some procedural issues. The rate of rejection of postal ballots certainly is much higher than that of regular ballots and this undoubtedly favors Trump.

      Trump should win the vote on election day and this may create some uncertainty while the early vote and postal vote are being tallied. But unlike Gore in 2000, I don't think Biden will concede early. Right now, I am not anticipating the vote to be close enough to be contested.
      Last edited by WiserthantheCrowd; 29-09-20, 23:16.


        Originally posted by gwen View Post
        The first of three debates is taking place on Tuesday evening 9PM EST in Cleveland Ohio. Hosted by FOX (a traditional right-wing TV network who Trump handpicked to host the debate). Moderated by veteran journalist Chris Wallace who is well respected as someone who always seeks the truth. So I would say it is on neutral grounds. But you never know if someone in FOX is going to tip Trump with the list of questions ahead of time

        Small bets on Biden to say "Scranton" first, versus "Come on man"

        Scranton is a small town in Pennsylvania (a battleground state) where Biden was born in. In recent speeches, Biden has often compared his roots in Scranton against New York City (where Trump was born). Basically drawing comparison between blue-collar Americans (Biden) against the riches of Wall-street born with a golden-spoon (Trump).

        Good luck.

        Bet won


          Biden outright fell from 1.82 to 1.69 at Pinnacle after the debate .


            Down to 1.625 now

            The general take away from the debate, aside form being chaotic and embarrassing, were that although Biden did not perform outstanding and looked old, he stood his ground against Trump's antics, and did not collapse on stage or wet his pants

            Odds being high ahead of the debate I think was people had reservations on how Biden would perform, and the debate was seen as advantageous for Trump. Biden at least scored a passing grade. Remember it is Trump that has to make up ground on public opinion, and he failed to do so last night

            Another fallout from the messy debate was that I think many people had enough of it already and will tune off the following 2 debates, which again is not good for Trump


              Yup, I predicted the odds on Trump would fall after the first debate when reality kicks in. Trump has consistently been polling behind Biden nationally and in the key swing states.

              Early voting is coming along nicely and Trump's vilification of mail ballots has depressed turnout among Republicans. So Trump is confronting a widening deficit that will be difficult to make up on election day. Moreover, long queues, fears of being infected with Covid 19 while standing in line, or bad weather may also depress turnout on election day.

              We've now had our first October surprise but rather than rallying the country around the presidency, this puts the spotlight on Trump's leadership and how he may have contributed toward the spread of coronavirus.

              The economic outlook also isn't looking more promising. Since the next unemployment report is only due after the election, it's now a fact that Trump has presided over a net job loss.

              At this point, I'm pegging the probability of Trump losing the election at 90-95%.
              Last edited by WiserthantheCrowd; 03-10-20, 23:18.


                Biden is now at 1.5 which is far more realistic. If you didn't get in on the action earlier on this might not look that enticing anymore.

                I have found another market that offers even better odds right now:



                  Originally posted by WiserthantheCrowd View Post
                  Biden is now at 1.5 which is far more realistic. If you didn't get in on the action earlier on this might not look that enticing anymore.

                  I have found another market that offers even better odds right now:

                  Right. Pinnacle also offers State by State betting, which is another option


                    Big changes in bet365 since Trump announced that he has COVID

                    odds are now Biden 1.44 and Trump 2.85
                    The Aesir will welcome me. My death comes without apology.
                    And I welcome the Valkyries to summon me home!


                      There is an interesting interview with Bob Woodward on MSNBC today

                      It reveals that Trump's strategy is the same as 2016, which is keep campaigning and holding big rallies across the country leading up the the election. Something Hilary failed to do, she didn't even bother to travel to some of the states that she was sure she was going to win, for example Wisconsin

                      This is obviously a bad strategy given that the circumstances in 2020 are far different from 2016

                      I am sure some of Trump's advisor's are telling him that, but it is apparent that he enjoys doing these rallies and hearing people cheering from him. He draws energy and confidence from these events, but it is not going to help him gain the votes that he needs.

                      Last edited by gwen; 16-10-20, 08:01.


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