NHL December 2019

[WKSkofu]

I am opening one thread for NHL for this month

First of all
You should copy/print this and keep in a visable place to remember how unpredictable(and hard to predict) NHL is:
NHL in brief (one day and so much to learn)

Washington-Columbus:Washinton 6 wins in a row inc. OT and 1 defeat in 11 home games, very nice home h2h (only 5 defeats in 22 games!) versus 4 streat defeats. Washington had 23 points more, was best team of the league vs 4rd worse in their conference that will likely miss the playoffs. FULL TIME result 2:5

Ottawa- Boston.
Ottawa had 25 points less (3rd worse team of the conf!) vs 2nd best in whole league, a very bad record 107 in last 6 games vs 1 defeat in last 14 games. Boston won last 10 h2h games (ML)! FT result 4:2!

Colorado- Calgary
Colorado 4rd team of the league vs team having 7 points more and in a great form winning 6 games in a regulation and breaking as the first team fortress of Boston (in 18th attempt!) and Calgary had 7 games on the road w/o a win with a very shamefull statistics (only 6 goals scored in those 7 games, disgracefull streak of 3 cons. games lost on the road to null during that span: 0:3, 0:5, 0:6!If you are well paid sportsmen and loose in NHL 3 games to null (and Calgary weren't decimated by injuries/suspensions!) you should give your money back or even change a league!). FT 4:5 after OT, Colorado were loosing by 2 goals in 3rd period and near to loose already in regulation
and finally

Tampa- NYI
The lone match from yesterday where an eventuall winner had more points but NYI(9 points more) prior to game with Tampa won only 3 games in 8 games (none vs strong or very strong team, Detroit will miss postseason and Columbus will probably miss it)and had a bad h2h in Tampa (5 defeats in 6games in regulation). Tampa still have a very strong roster(similar team won an ALL TIME record number of games in one season!) but they were underperfing this season. Tampa won 7:1 in last home games with SJ and FT Results vs NYI was 1:5!

ALl 4 teams that lost were a favorites or quite big fav. (like Boston or Washington).
You know now why i am putting small or only medium stakes, very seldom higher stakes in NHL?You should do the same.
I have noticed it already couple years ago that some matches are treated by team less seriously. I am in 100 procent sure of that.
Team is not able to play in 100 procent regular season or they will pay a very big price in the postseason (like GSW, improved CHicago Bulls record, had a great roster, coach and atmosfere and did not win the championship, Tampa did the same last year and what was really shocking istead of winning in the playoffs with 8th team of the conf. 4:0, they lost 0:4 all in a reg games).

Such a things are nothing unusual in NHL(to be precise such a combo of big surprises do not happen every day). Moreover Washington and Tampa and Boston played vs 2nd (WORSE) goalie!

[WKSkofu]

I am thinking today only about one game. Pens vs Montreal but again rather small stakes, Montreal started to build confidence. More in 30 minutes

[WKSkofu]

Pens to win dnb + Philly to win in NBA inc. OT 1.4/10
Pens to win dnb 0,55/10

Pens have good form in last weeks, only 2 defeats in a regulation in last 10 games, won 6 out of 8 games ML. Montreal will miss postseason, have worse roster etc but draw is possible
Philly 12wins 0 defeats at home and 8 in last 10 vs 4 out of 5 defeats. Odds unf. went down, but you can find circa 1.5
Good night

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Wroclaw-UNIQUE City has: one of 4-5 the most beautiful Town Hall and Market square in whole Europe (the biggest medieval market square in Europe with Town Hall and pillory!). VENICE of the North (over 100 bridges, 5th place in Europe!) 1 of 7 new ZOO wonders of the world (only 4 are located in Europe!),People's Hall(UNESCO Heritage), City that contributed in 13 Noble Prize winners (Alzheimer worked and died here, Creuzfeld worked. You will surely meet very nice and hospitable people. Still quite cheap in comparison to western Europe.
Wroclaw-the Meeting Place. So when are you going to Visit Wroclaw and Poland?

[WKSkofu]

Pens lost surprisngly 1:4 (1:0), Philly won.
You you want to be better you have to learn and admit to mistakes. Yes i put 0.5 too much on Pens and due to CL i somehow did not see before a game good opportunity to play Vegas'swin in a regulation.Sorry.

I want you to show you something.
Situation that took place again (i wrote it couple times) Strong team loose with weak/quite weak and this is no so strange that weaker team conquer a FORTRESS Pens (10 cons. h games w/o a loss) lost with Montreal that may miss the posteason (and did it in last 2 seasons) and Minesota 10 home games w/o a loss almost lost(0:2) during a game and lost after OT with Anaheim that had 2 winc inc OT in 9 and 5 defeats ML in a row on the road.
It took place day by day. Montreal won this season at rjnks that is damn hard to win:Washington(only 3 defeats), ST Louis(4 defeats) and Pittsburgh (only 2 defeats before a game) so this team know how to play with big ones. They were also not far from defeat and break fortress Boston (led 1:0 in 3rd period and wasted 2 very good chances)

[WKSkofu]

It looks a bit(i don't think it's pure coincidence!) like stronger teams are motivated more when there is "4 points game" (play vs team that have nice chances for the postseason) and play worse game with the team that will likely miss the playoffs.

Pens won easily(3:0) 2 games ago at home with the def. champions St Louis that had a great series on the road and now lost with the team that had 8 defeats ML in last 10! Pens won last 2 home games with good teams to null 3:0 and 2:0. Stronger teams seem to caluculate the importance of the games (like Pens, Minesota this night etc).
As you see i wrote about one of traps in hockey you have to be aware of.

[WKSkofu]

I have a very interesting and maybe even shocking statistic:
All teams with series of 10 or 10+ games at home w/o a defeat and who finished it (conquerer of fortress played or missed playoffs)
Last 3 full seasons:
18/19 Tampa (conquerer missed playoffs), Vegas and Toronto. Summing up: 1/3 conquerer missed the playoffs

17/18 Boston (conquerer missed playoffs), Colorado, Las Vegas(conquerer missed), MInesota(missed PO), NYI(misswed PO), Pittsburgh, Toronto(missed), San Jose(missed), Wash(missed), Winnipeg (missed) In total 8/10 conquerer missed playoffs!

16/17 Anaheim(finished in the playoffs, not contued), Carolina(conquerer of fortress missed) , Chicago(missed),Montreal, NYI(missed), Pittsburgh, St Louis, Washington (missed), In total 4/7 conquerer missed playoffs!

In last 3 full seasons (regular parts) 13 out of 20 good home teams with 10 or more home games w/o a loss in a regulation were defeated by team that missed the playoffs!Strong statistic.

Remember this statistic and a city it comes from!

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Wroclaw-UNIQUE City has: one of 4-5 the most beautiful Town Hall and Market square in whole Europe (the biggest medieval market square in Europe with Town Hall and pillory!). VENICE of the North (over 100 bridges, 5th place in Europe!) 1 of 7 new ZOO wonders of the world (only 4 are located in Europe!),People's Hall(UNESCO Heritage), City that contributed in 13 Noble Prize winners (Alzheimer worked and died here, Creuzfeld worked. You will surely meet very nice and hospitable people. Still quite cheap in comparison to western Europe.
Wroclaw-the Meeting Place. So when are you going to Visit Wroclaw and Poland?

[WKSkofu]

I am going to skip today's games. I thought on some handicap for Ottawa (not -1.5) but rather X2, Ottawa are fresher , Montreal had 0 days rest, they are fearless and Montreal may play w/o C.Price (good December in comparison to horrible November).

Statistic i wrote a post above is really really interesting. Normally when you are strong at home even in hockey and somebody finish your very good streak and conqer your fortress it should be rather the strong team that will play in the playoffs. It should be 13/20 for team clinching playoffs, definitely not 13/20 for weak teams that finish a season after a regular part of it. Such a statistic clearly show the trap that gave loads of money for the bookies.

And we have another proof that it works in this season. Pittsburgh lost with Montreal, Boston almost lost with weak Chicago (0:3 in 3rd period, they superbly made 3:3) and so on

[WKSkofu]

What a (small) miss with nice odds, later i decided to play Montreal Ottawa draw(0,25/10) but it was too late to share here... Those who are not believers i remind that i drew x2 before a game with reasons.
Today i will try certainly 2, maybe even 3 games. Stakes circa 3.5,more circa 23.20

[WKSkofu]

Picks: Pittsburgh 1dnb + ST Louis Vegas 1x 2,25/10
Pittsburgh 1 (in 60 min) 0,75/10
Pittsburgh 1dnb 1,25/10
+ very small bet Pittsburgh 1dnb, St Louis 1x, SJ 1dnb 0.25/10

and some small cover(in case of St Louis loose again) Pittsburgh 1dnb+ St Louis 2+ San Jose 1dnb

[WKSkofu]

Penguins were and still are strong at home, they lost last game 1:4 with surging Montreal (raising confidence after ending a very bad streak of 8 cons. defeats ML) and they should bounce back, Columbus have very bad record in Pittbsburgh, Crosby is still out and Hornquist + 2 others but Columbus have also some serious missings

St Louis lost 3 in a row, all in regulation, i expect some positive respond, i wanted to play them more but they have 4 impr. strikers missings. Yes they have them for good couple weeks and they managed to win many games like vs Pens 5:2 but i am not going invest more.
St Louis are strong home rink team and they are def. champions, 4/5 team atm of the league

SJ sacked a coach that led them to SC final and conf. final. They lost 5 in a row and may respond with a help of own fans and using home rink,

[WKSkofu]

Off topic: WHAT A DAY IN EUROPA LEAGUE. I have not seen such a day with huge number of defeats in any single round of european cups in my whole life! Take a look:
https://www.betexplorer.com/soccer/e...europa-league/ 13 big or even huge surprises + MU winning 4:0 with strong AZ after 0:0 in first half and Rashford + couple more first eleven players out. Bookies are celebrating strongly. I wrote earlier in another thread that this season in EL is full of surprises but this we have seen in last round is amazing, trully amazing.

Qarabag and Dinamo Kiev were loosing at home until the stoppage time(90+) so it was very close to two huge surprise (odds 11-12)instead of only quite big surpsised...

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Wroclaw-UNIQUE City has: one of 4-5 the most beautiful Town Hall and Market square in whole Europe (the biggest medieval market square in Europe with Town Hall and pillory!). VENICE of the North (over 100 bridges, 5th place in Europe!) 1 of 7 new ZOO wonders of the world (only 4 are located in Europe!),People's Hall(UNESCO Heritage), City that contributed in 13 Noble Prize winners (Alzheimer worked and died here, Creuzfeld worked. You will surely meet very nice and hospitable people. Still quite cheap in comparison to western Europe.
Wroclaw-the Meeting Place. So when are you going to Visit Wroclaw and Poland?

[WKSkofu]

Not good! Malkin is ill, Pens w/o big 2 guns (Crosby and Malkin) may loose it, if you can quit the game (take Pens 2 dnb if you took Pens 1dnb)

[WKSkofu]

St Louis won easily(4:2) and Pens drew 0:0 (very rare outcome in NHL) dute to lack of Malkin. I tried to warned asap (a the beg. of the game). It turned out only couple (circa 2?) hours before a game thay he won't play.
This is why you should never bet to early in NHL. There is almost 23.15 CET and we still don't know who will start as Vegas's goalie

Pick for tonight
Dallas 1dnb 2,25/10
Dallas 1 (in 60 min), 0,9/10
combo Dallas 1dnb + Colorado 1dnb 0.45/10

Dallas have a really good form in last 10+ games and their great goalie, nr 3 in the league (great GAA and SV) will start. They will be fresher than Vegas and Vegas are not as dangereous away from hom than at home.

Colorado are great with only 3 defeats at home, they broke as one an lone team a fortress in BOston couple days ago and NJ lost 6 (ML) in a row but i am not gooing put more stakes here, maybe live if they create more chances etc.


EDIT take also small combi Dallas x+ Clippers to win in NBA(In MInesota) 0,25/10
Good night

==========
Wroclaw-UNIQUE City has: one of 4-5 the most beautiful Town Hall and Market square in whole Europe (the biggest medieval market square in Europe with Town Hall and pillory!). VENICE of the North (over 100 bridges, 5th place in Europe!) 1 of 7 new ZOO wonders of the world (only 4 are located in Europe!),People's Hall(UNESCO Heritage), City that contributed in 13 Noble Prize winners (Alzheimer worked and died here, Creuzfeld worked. You will surely meet very nice and hospitable people. Still quite cheap in comparison to western Europe.
Wroclaw-the Meeting Place. So when are you going to Visit Wroclaw and Poland?

[WKSkofu]

One more cover in case of surprisingly Dallas loose
Dallas to loose in 60 min+ Colorado to win in 60 min+ Clippers to win ML 0.35/10

[WKSkofu]

Dallas drew 2:2 with great Bishop (majority stakes back),Colorado win + Clipper won. but i took also combo with Dallas x and it was a good decision, i earned again from the rebound (3 combo!)

==========
Wroclaw-UNIQUE City has: one of 4-5 the most beautiful Town Hall and Market square in whole Europe (the biggest medieval market square in Europe with Town Hall and pillory!). VENICE of the North (over 100 bridges, 5th place in Europe!) 1 of 7 new ZOO wonders of the world (only 4 are located in Europe!),People's Hall(UNESCO Heritage), City that contributed in 13 Noble Prize winners (Alzheimer worked and died here, Creuzfeld worked. You will surely meet very nice and hospitable people. Still quite cheap in comparison to western Europe.
Wroclaw-the Meeting Place. So when are you going to Visit Wroclaw and Poland?