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MLB: 23-05-2007

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    MLB: 23-05-2007

    @ BA: 17W/18L, +10.86 units

    NY Mets @ Atlanta Braves
    6 units on Mets ML, 1.98 @ Pinnacle

    This is a tricky matchup, as the top two NL teams square off here (best two IMO, that is). Mets didn't have much success on Turner Field the last couple of seasons and they already began with a rough 1-8 defeat. However, between the two, the Mets made a bigger impact and they should try at least to push this series to a rubber game.

    The pitching duel opposes two left-handers: Mets' Oliver Perez (5-3, 2.90 ERA, 1.09 WHIP) and Braves' Chuck James (4-3, 4.15 ERA, 1.49 WHIP). But while James is your average left-hander, who also counts on his offense to bail him out once in a while, Perez is a much more surprising stuff and a more agressive pitcher. I agree, if Perez has one of his bad days, he'll get hammered seriously, without any point of return for his team. Both teams hit lefties pretty good, but the Mets really feasted on them (.332 v .274 BA).

    We will likely have the same scenario as when the two pitchers were opposed on April 21st, when Perez gave up two runs in 6 2-3 innings in the 7-2 victory in New York, while James allowed six runs in 5 1-3 innings and was charged with the loss.

    Chicago Cubs @ San Diego Padres
    6 units on Padres ML, 1.78 @ Pinnacle

    Looks like no matter what they do, who they get, who they field, the Cubbies are still an infinite distance from a World Series. Despite all the good writeups regarding coach Lou Piniella style and how the team is responding to him, I will rarely back them. And this time I am gonna fade them. Cubs won only once in the last 10 meetings against the Padres, compiling both 2006 and 2007 seasons, and there's a good chance they'll walk empty handed once more.

    Padres put veteran left-hander Doug Wells (1-2, 5.40 ERA) on the mound. The 44 year old comes off his best performance of the season, when he went eight innings, allowing just one run against the Reds. Even though he shows his age, Wells is always capable of good starts and the Cubs are not that menacing against lefties (.243 average). Not to mention they will also face maybe the best bullpen in the majors.

    A regular last season, when he started 24 games for a 6-9 record and a 5.59 ERA, Sean Marshall will make his debut for the Cubs in 2007. The left-hander nursed a nasty shoulder injury and will be up against a Padres lineup which is in a nice spell nowadays.

    Florida ML
    Mil @ LAD, over 7.5
    Min @ Tex, under 9.5
    LA Angels ML
    Seattle ML
    White Sox ML

    GL !!!
    It's not important whether you win or lose, it's important whether I win or lose !


      Wednesday GodsTips

      Wednesday, May 23, 2007

      OAKLAND (GAUDIN +118) White Sox (Garland)

      Go with a team that draws four or more walks per game against a pitcher who gave up two or less earned runs in his last two outings is +83.4 units at 271-185. Go against a team with a bullpen ERA of 5.00 or worse starting a pitcher whose WHIP is less than 1.00 last five starts.

      Guadin has great numbers at a 2.94 ERA and 1.288 WHIP for the year. Oakland has won three straight with him. Jack Cust and Dan Johnson have sizzling bats for Oakland.


        MLB 2007: 61 W-5V-46 L +85.28 units

        White Sox (Garland) (-2/adjusted runline 3.32 @ Pinny) 4 units

        I'm looking at this one hard. How can you not like the White Sox the way they've been hitting? These guys are KILLING the ball as they should have done since day one of the season. With Thome back and hitting the ball I'm thinking they are heating up BIG.
        Garland has improved (from 0-2 to 3-2, wins against NYY, KC and LAA, 3-0, 2.01 ERA in May, the team is putting runs on the board for him after a while, and most of all the White Sox bats are SIZZLING.
        Get them while they're still not too pricy.
        This price is outrageous. I know the Sox are supposed to win by 3 in order for this one to cash in and Gaudin has been solid but Oaktown still have pen problems, they're missing several guys from the lineup. I'm thinking, if Gaudin gets torched early, they will have to get their pen to work and they can't afford that.
        All I'm saying is this price is ridiculous.

        Marlins (Kim) (2.12 @ Pinnacle) 4 units

        Yeah, go on and think Byung Hyun Kim is a bum. I won't. This guy is severely underrated. I remember him at Colorado, he was solid at times, even though this year he started in the minors, he is quite an experienced pitcher. Just because he has a bloated ERA at this point of the season doesn't mean he's a disastrous pitcher. He is 2-2 this year with a 7.15 ERA, and I'm thinking he's getting used to the team and the teammates and is ready to make a fresh start.
        Philly couldn't win last night with their best pitcher on the mound, and I'm not going to put my trust in the hands of Freddy Garcia (1-3, 4.86 ERA). His forte are day starts, and this is a night road game.
        He already got the win against Florida this season, but allowed 7 hits in 4.2 innings of work, equaling in 4 earned runs.
        I just can't see beyond this dog price on a hot team playing at home.
        What makes Freddy and the Phillies favs here?


          MLB YTD: 64 bets - 33W-28L-3P +45.34 units. ROI = 115.79%
          Average stake per bet 4.48 units. Average odds 2.188

          I'm a bit late today. short writeups, but here's couple of bets i just took.

          Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals

          Pirates @ 2.04 (Matchbook) 5 units

          Simply quite a big starting pitching advantage for the Pirates. They should be favored more. Ian Snell is a very good pitcher and he has been consistently sharp. Cards starter Kip Wells have been knocked around by about everyone. Neither lineup is overly productive. Cards batting has looked a little bit better lately, but Pirates lineup is improving as well and they have a decent bullpen and big overall pitching advantage here.

          Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers

          Brewers team total over 3.5 @ 2.05 (Pinnacle) 5 units

          Quite low total for a good lineup like the Brewers. Milwaukee lineup has been really nice surprise this season. They have quite balanced lineup with several improving good young guns like Prince Fielder and J.J Hardy. Dodgers starter Brad Penny is a good home pitcher, but i do think he is a bit overpriced because of the good start of the season. He got hit hard in his last start and several bats in this current Brewers lineup has hit well against him in the past. Penny has always been quite streaky pitcher. While he is good, he's not quite an Elite pitcher, being around 4 ERA career performer. Milwaukee will bat the whole 9 innings, and i like their chances to score at least 4 here.


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