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MLB: 08-05-07

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    MLB: 08-05-07

    TB and Baltimore Over the Total is a Play on my board for sure for Tuesday, i dont expect Seo and/or Guthrie to be involved with anything that goes on past the 6th inning and were at 5 -4 allready with 4 innings left to play

    TB/ Balt Over 10

    Detroit athome and a A Payout basically Even Odds, as its tugh to call a 2 run game playing the Runline But Det and Bonderman at home, and Look at the Discrepency between road starts and Home starts for Ramirez, Show me some runs, and Show me Detroit covering the Runline -1.5 (About Even Odds)

    Detroit -1.5 +105

    Sweet spot of the day for all of us should be the Dodgers Again to win big and cover the runline at Euro Odds or American Odds You takethe Dodgers -1.5 and you wont be complaing about the Quality of Value in that Play, Ill list it in American but whatever it is in Over your guys way, its a nice dishout

    LA Dodgers Runline -1.5 +135

    GL on the Grass Tuesday

    MLB YTD 19W-12L-1P +39.27 units. Average stake per bet 4,25 units. ROI = 130.25%

    Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs

    Pirates @ 2.49 (Pinnacle) 4 units

    I'll take the Pirates as a sizable road dog here. Their lineup has been relatively weak so far, but they have potential for some improvement. They have hit a little bit better against left handed pitching and with a strong bullpen and good pitching staff they can often be competitive. Cubs, ofcouse, has the home advantage and a potent lineup which has produced well lately. Their starter Ted Lilly has been effective and can be good here. This Pirate lineup didn't have much trouble hitting him week ago though, with 9 hits and 4 ER in 5.1 innings. Maybe they'll be able to replicate similar performance here. Pirates starter Ian Snell is a talented young pitcher who has been very sharp this season. He has a sparkly 2.31 ERA through first 6 games and has been hard to hit. If he can hold the Cubs to few runs, keeping the game close for 6+ innings, Pirates will probably have good chances late. Matt Capps is suspended for few games, but the Pirate bullpen is still quite good without him. There's some value in the current odds imo.

    Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins

    White Sox team total over 4 @ 2.04 (Pinnacle) 4 units

    White Sox lineup has been underachieving a bit early. They have been one of the worst hitting teams in the American League, but even without Thome, this lineup has dangerous middle of the order with several good power hitters. They are likely to improve a bit soon. Their hitting looked quite promising in the latest Series at pitcher friendly Angel Stadium. Maybe they'll be able to score some runs here at the Metrodome against Boof Bonser, who is quite mediocre pitcher. Minny does have one of the best bullpens in the AL on paper and can be tough in the late innings. Still, 4+ runs looks quite possible to me here and is takeable with about even odds.


      Good stuff here guys. I was sure however, Juuso was going to make a play on the Jays, so far he didn't, but I like it.

      MLB 2007: 41 W-1V-29 L +67.2 units

      Jays (Zambrano) (2.67 @ Pinnacle) 2 units
      Over 9.5 (1.95 @ Pinnacle) 8 units

      I'm going to stick to my "max 10 units per game" policy, but I would normally make this over a 10 unit bet. First of, the Jays are severely underrated here, the price is huge and despite the fact Victor Zambrano hasn't done much this year (0-1, 5.63 ERA) and is overall a shaky pitcher. I wouldn't rely on him at this point being a big questionmark, but Beckett's blazing start has him favored more than he should have normally been.
      Beckett is still a typical home pitcher, and even though he excelled so far to another level, I like him to post his first loss tonight, or at least let in more than he has this year.

      Several reasons for that. Beckett's numbers (6-0, 2.72 ERA) are scary. But I don't think he'll be 10-0, or even 7-0 for that matter, since his weak points have always been road starts and facing the Blue Jays, no matter where he faces them. He is 1-2, 6.21 ERA against Toronto, Wells and Hill are literally killing him (Wells is 7-for-15 with 4 homers (.467) off Beckett, and Hill is batting .364. Glaus has 2 homers against him).
      On the other hand, Zambrano is 5-3 (5.49 ERA) against Boston, and will be facing a difficult task in David Ortiz (5-for-12, 2 HR) and Manny Ramirez who loves this park.
      Furthermore, both teams have had some struggles in the bullpen area lately, while it's obvious to explain Toronto relievers' numbers, since they seem to have gone on a general slump (2-8 in last 10), Boston have had some woes as well, even Papelbon has let in a few, Timlin still has some injury problems and when he's pitching, he's sub par).
      The over is 2-3 this year in the series, with all three Toronto games ending well under. I think we're about to have a trend switch here.

      LAA - Cleveland over 9 (1.91 @ Pinnacle) 7 units

      Another slightly lower than expected in terms of the actual number. I would expect 9.5 or even 10, but this was a pleasant surprise.
      Ok, why over. The Tribe are killing every pitcher they face right now, they're putting those runs on the board and runners on base with ease, and are one of the most in form lineups in baseball right now. They've outscored the Orioles 19 to 7 in the last two games and I don't think they're running to a wall tonight either.
      The Halos will give the ball to their typical home pitcher in Ervin Santana, a very talented kid, but has had huge struggles against Cleveland in the past (0-3, 13.50 ERA) Apart from that however, he is 6-0 with a 2.88 ERA over his last eight home starts dating to last season. He's won both starts at Angel Stadium this season while posting a 1.93 ERA. It just seems the Indians lineup is built that way to hurt Santana a lot, and I don't think we'll see a change of tune tonight.

      It would be a different case had the Indians been cold or something, but they're pounding the ball hard, and will look to keep doing it tonight.
      Santana already faced the Tribe in Cleveland this year and lost 7-6, Sabathia was pitching for the home team. The next two went under the total, 4-1 and 4-2 with Anaheim taking the 2nd and Cleveland the third.
      On the other side, Cliff Lee gets the nod for the Tribe. He is 0-0, 7.50 ERA this year (3-3 with a 4.15 ERA in six career starts against the Angels), he's pitched only 6 innings so far, but I don't think he can excel here either, given the fact Vlad Guerrero is hitting 7-for-17 (.412) off him, and several other guys having success on the plate against him.
      This one should be a run fest.

      Diamondbacks (Owings) (1.86 @ Pinnacle) 6 units

      Adam Eaton is a holder of one of the biggest discrepancies between his performances and the actual record. He is 3-2 but with a 8.18 ERA to go with it. I believe the Snakes have had a tough weekend facing the Mets, a team they just have big troubles beating, but I believe they let out their frustration out this week. They already connected 2 wins, I'm looking for their third here.
      Micah Owings (1-1, 3.38 ERA) is one of the most promising rookies in the league right now and the Phillies are slumping considering a few of their star players (primarily Ryan Howard) are underachieving this year. Howard hit .313 last season and led the majors with 58 homers and 149 RBIs to earn NL MVP honors. However, he is hitting just .198 with five homers in 2007 and will miss another game tonight.
      This team is built around Howard, now they'll have to rely on Shane Victorino's hitting streak (.417 in last 7 days), however I like the Snakes and what they have to offer, I think a versatile lineup like theirs will hurt Eaton.


        Many thanks again


          Yes that for sure have checked long time your activities and can say only good things about it also took over 4.5 for LA DODGERS thanks i think together we can do it


            Congrats Satyr, nice work as always.

            I thought about the Blue Jays yesterday, but didn't like it enough because of Beckett's monster numbers and Victor Zambrano. I'm on the Jays today though. will soon do writeups.


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