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Australian Rules - 2021

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    Greater Western Sydney Giants vs Richmond Tigers

    The Giants are coming off a huge win last week, when they beat Geelong, one of the most in-form teams at the moment, third on the ladder, away in Geelong.
    The Giants welcome back a few big players, in a huge boost for them, which helps for an overs bet.
    The Giants have just gone into the top 8 and with 2 games left to play in the regular season, if they win this they are almost assured that they play finals football this year.
    The Tigers are the defending champions, but this year they struggled and are now outside the play-offs, and this is a must-win game for them. But so have been numerous other matches and they lost.
    This match is being played in Melbourne, home of the Tigers, but when they played at the same stadium 3 months ago, the Giants lost by 4 points in a match that they should have won.
    Now coming in very good form and with a few players back in, I'll take them to at least stay close.

    Most of the Giants games go over and the Tigers score well too.

    Josh Kelly has signed a new deal with the Giants and he's had over 25 disposals in all games this season, except two.
    I think when you sign a new deal you want to repay the favour the following game, so Josh Kelly 25+.
    Jayden Short for the Tigers has been outstanding his last 7 games, with 25+ in each one of them.

    Bet 1: GWS +7.5 @1.80
    Bet 2: Over 157.5 points @1.85
    Bet 3: Josh Kelly 25+ Disposals + Jayden Short 20+ Disposals @1.90


      Brisbane Lions vs Collingwood

      The Lions love playing in high scoring games with 11 of their last 13 games going over the total points including their last six.
      They're coming off a huge 64-point thumping over Fremantle away. Fremantle were still looking to get into the finals, while Collingwood is a bottom 3 team.
      Collingwood is ranked 13th for points against conceding 80.3 points per game **8211; at the same time the Lions are ranked first in the competition for points scored averaging 96 per game.

      Bet 1: Lions -36.5 @1.91
      Bet 2: Team Total Points - Lions Over 97.5 @1.89
      Bet 3: Total Points Over 160.5 @1.95


        North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Sydney Swans

        The Kangaroos are rock bottom, but they've been losing their matches staying within the handicap.
        Last week they were brought crashing down by Richmond, when they lost by 33 points (handicap was +14.5).
        The Swans themselves copped a defeat from a play-offs aspiring team, St Kilda, and their hopes of a top four finish were seriously dented. They will still get to the play-offs, but not with the advantage brought by a top 4 finish.
        I'm taking a same game multi with these players, as they've consistently had more than 20 disposals, respectively 25 disposals: Dawson 20+, Hall 25+, Parker 25+ disposals.

        Bet 1: Sydney winning margin 1-39 @2.00
        Bet 2: Same game multi - Dawson 20+ disposals + Hall 25+ disposals + Parker 25+ disposals @2.15


          Fremantle Dockers vs West Coast Eagles

          This is a local derby in Perth, with both teams fighting for a play-off spot. The Dockers have an outside chance, but the Eagles must win this and will almost be surely in.
          Nat Fyfe and Andrew Brayshaw will miss this Derby, which is a huge blow for the Dockers.
          West Coast welcome back Liam Ryan and Luke Shuey for this clash to help bolster their stocks off the back of a solid performance against the Demons last week.
          Fremantle has been extremely erratic with some big losses recently.

          West Coast has won each of its last 11 matches against Fremantle.

          The Dockers struggle to score, they haven't beat the 60 points barrier in their last 4 games, and to play finals footy you need to be able to score more than that. Their goal kicking has lacked precision, as instead of scoring goals (6-pointers) they score behinds (1-pointers).

          David Mundy will play more in the midfield as Fyfe is not in for the Dockers.
          Sean Darcy has recorded 17+ disposals in each of Fremantle's last eight matches.

          Bet 1: West Coast -14.5 @1.80
          Bet 2: Team Total Points - Fremantle Under 69.5 @1.89
          Bet 3: Same Game Multi - Mundy 25+ Disposals + Darcy 15+ Disposals @2.10


            Western Bulldogs vs Port Adelaide

            Port have peaked at the right time, as they are on a 5-match winning run and with a win tonight they can get to second, which means home finals. The Dogs appear to have peaked too early, as they lost their last 2 games and are now 4 points (1 win) behind Port. Port Adelaide are close to full strength and the form they're in, they should at least stay close in this one.

            Eight of the last 11 matches at this stadium have gone over the total match points line.
            Marcus Bontempelli has recorded 26+ disposals in 16 of the Western Bulldogs' last 17 matches.
            Bailey Dale has recorded 21+ disposals in 18 of the Western Bulldogs' last 19 matches.
            Cody Weightman has kicked 1+ goals in 12 of his last 13 appearances.

            Bet 1: Port +8.5 @1.80
            Bet 2: Over 157.5 points @1.91
            Bet 3: Same Game Multi - Bailey Dale 20+ Disposals + Bontempelli 25+ Disposals + Cody Weightman any time goalscorer @2.20


              Geelong vs Melbourne Demons

              Both teams are in the fight for the top spot. This is the last match of the regular season. Both teams are in great form.
              The last few matches played at this stadium have been overs, and with these two teams having great firepower, the total set for this match appeals to me.
              I'll also take a couple of multis with players who have got more than 20-25 disposals regularly this season.

              Bet 1: Over 145.5 points @1.91
              Bet 2: Sam Menegola 20+ Disposals + Cameron Guthrie 25+ Disposals + Joel Selwood 20+ Disposals @2.05
              Bet 3: Christian Salem 20+ Disposals + Clayton Oliver 25+ Disposals + Joel Selwood 20+ Disposals + Patrick Dangerfield 20+ Disposals @2.20



                Carlton Blues vs Greater Western Sydney Giants

                The Blues are out of play-offs.
                The Giants can secure their play-off spot with a win here. They have been in great form, having beaten title and play-off contenders in their last few games.
                Two months ago the Giants beat Carlton by 36 points.
                Carlton has lost by 15+ points in all 13 of their losses this season, with 9 of their 13 losses by 22+ points. The Giants will not let this slip, securing their spot in the finals with an easy win.

                Bet: GWS -20.5 @1.87


                  St Kilda vs Fremantle Dockers

                  This is the last match of the regular season and St Kilda are out of contention for the play-offs.
                  The Dockers still have a chance if they win this and Essendon, playing later in the day, doesn't win.

                  David Mundy has regularly had above 25 disposals since Fyfe has been out for Fremantle, as he takes more responsibility in the midfield.

                  Jack Steele has recorded 30+ disposals in six of St Kilda's last seven matches.

                  Jack Sinclair has recorded 20+ disposals in eight of his last nine appearances.

                  Sean Darcy has recorded 17+ disposals in each of Fremantle's last nine matches.

                  Brad Crouch regularly gets 25+ disposals.

                  Bet 1: Fremantle +8.5 @1.80
                  Bet 2: David Mundy 25+ Disposals + Sean Darcy 15+ Disposals + Jack Steele 25+ Disposals @2.30
                  Bet 3: Jack Sinclair 20+ Disposals + Brad Crouch 20+ Disposals + Jack Steele 25+ Disposals @2.10


                    Essendon vs Collingwood

                    Essendon are sitting on the last play-off spot, and depending on the results of the earlier match, they may have to win this or just play for fun.
                    Collingwood are one of the poorest teams this season, sitting third from bottom.
                    Regardless of the result between St Kilda and Fremantle, Essendon can score points against a porous defence like Collingwood's.

                    Zach Merrett has recorded 30+ disposals in seven of Essendon's last eight matches.

                    Chris Mayne has recorded 23+ disposals in each of his last 12 appearances.

                    Darcy Cameron has kicked 1+ goals in each of Collingwood's last six matches.

                    Bet 1: Team Total Points - Essendon Over 93.5 @1.90
                    Bet 2: Zach Merrett 25+ Disposals + Chris Mayne 20+ Disposals + Darcy Cameron - Any Time Goal Scorer @2.25


                      Adelaide Crows vs North Melbourne Kangaroos

                      This is the last match of the regular season and these teams sit bottom last.

                      Teams that sit in the bottom four of the ladder playing in the last round of the season are normally playing with the shackles off. They can**8217;t play finals, there**8217;s one game to go and mentally you relax which is a recipe for open free-flowing football.

                      Adelaide average 163.6 and North 161 total points in 2021 and when you get two sides who have struggled to defend all year then that trend normally continues.

                      Bet: Over 160.5 @1.88


                        Port Adelaide vs Geelong

                        This is the play-offs. The match is played in Adelaide.
                        Port has peaked at the business end of the season, coming off 6 consecutive wins.
                        Geelong stumbled in their last few matches, coming off 1 win and 2 losses. Last week they were 44 points ahead in the 3rd quarter and they lost the game.
                        Ollie Wines has recorded 30+ disposals in six of Port Adelaide's last eight matches.

                        Bet 1: Port Adelaide @1.72
                        Bet 2: Port Adelaide win + Ollie Wines 25+ Disposals @2.00


                          Melbourne Demons vs Brisbane Lions

                          This is the play-offs and the match is played in Adelaide.
                          The Demons have surpassed every expectation and then some this season and are the minor premiers (winners of the regular season). They have been constantly the best this season and is difficult to bet against them.

                          In their last six games the Demons have increased their scoring and five of those matches have gone over the total points.

                          Brisbane Lions are the highest scoring team in the competition. Thirteen of the last 15 Brisbane games have gone over the total points line, including the last eight.

                          Bet 1: Over 151.5 points @1.91
                          Bet 2: Melbourne 1-39 winning margin @2.25
                          Bet 3: Team Total Points - Melbourne Over 77.5 @1.89
                          Bet 4: Team Total Points - Brisbane Over 72.5 @1.88


                            Western Bulldogs vs Essendon Bombers

                            This is the play-offs.
                            Three weeks ago these two teams met in the regular season, and Essendon won 97-84.
                            I expect the Bulldogs to bounce back. In the previous match against the Bombers they had 50+ disposals, +17 contested possessions and +21 Inside 50s but lost the game.

                            A lot went right for Essendon in their win against the Bulldogs **8211; they smashed them in clearances and scores from stoppages, while Peter Wright kicked 7 goals. Despite all this, they only managed to win by 13 points. I expect the Bulldogs to make a few adjustments and do enough to secure a win in this.

                            These are the the 2nd and 4th ranked scoring sides in the AFL. The Bombers need to attack to win as they can**8217;t defend as well as the Dogs, which should lead to another high scoring match.

                            Bet 1: Western Bulldogs winning margin 1-39 @2.10
                            Bet 2: Total Over 148.5 points @1.91
                            Bet 3: Builder - Bulldogs win + Over 128.5 points @1.90


                              Geelong vs Greater Western Sydney

                              GWS are missing Toby Greene through suspension, a huge blow in the scoring department for them.
                              I expect this game to be a grind, it is a quarter-final, six of the last seven GWS finals have resulted in going UNDER the total match points line.

                              I'll take Tim Taranto (GWS) to score a couple of goals. With no Toby Green playing, this guy needs to go forward and kick goals. The last time Toby Green didn**8217;t play, Taranto kicked 4 goals. He is one of the best contested marks in the game and is a natural forward.
                              Josh Kelly has recorded 25+ disposals in 14 of his last 16 appearances.

                              Bet 1: Under 152.5 points @1.92
                              Bet 2: To score 2 or more goals - Tim Taranto (GWS) @3.60
                              Bet 3: To score anytime - Tim Taranto + Josh Kelly 25+ Disposals @2.40


                                Brisbane Lions vs Western Bulldogs

                                Both sides average over 90 points a game. The Gabba is a high-scoring venue and the weather looks to be okay.

                                The Bulldogs and Lions have played in plenty of high-scoring contests this season, with 11 of their last 14 going over the total points.
                                At the Gabba this season seven of Brisbane**8217;s ten games have gone over the total points, with the Lions averaging 109.6 points at their home ground **8211; their lowest score, 93 points.

                                Brisbane**8217;s Gabba record is dominant winning their last nine there and covering the line in seven of those wins.
                                Despite the Lions being clear favorites in the betting, the Western Bulldogs will most certainly be no easy beat in this one.
                                So instead of going for the handicap, which is set at +/-9.5, I'll take the margin bet 1-39 and go for the Lions.
                                Grant Birchall (Brisbane) has recorded 15+ disposals in each of his last 11 appearances.
                                Jack Macrae (Bulldogs) has recorded 30+ disposals in 21 of the Western Bulldogs' last 23 matches.
                                Bailey Dale (Bulldogs) has recorded 20+ disposals in 9 of his last 10 weeks.

                                Bet 1: Over 163.5 points @1.91
                                Bet 2: Brisbane Lions 1-39 @2.20
                                Bet 3: Grant Birchall 15+ Disposals + Jack Macrae 30+ Disposals + Bailey Dale 20+ Disposals @2.30
                                Bet 4: Team Total Points - Brisbane Over 85.5 @1.89


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