I am on a very ****ing bad roll !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Triger]

Well, to sum it all up, December was a shity month for most of us. Why? Bookmakers set the odds correctly (difficult to find value, f.e. In September Sevilla win was 2.2 and now 1.7) and mixed whit some unexpected results - there you go, a very bad month...

[Achilleas]

Exactly, mate. If someone thinks U/O is lottery, he should not bet 1X2 as well (respectively is not suited for the totals market, approaches it wrong). Cause that is as much (or as less!) lottery then U/O. In fact both types of bets have quite a few things in common. Some parameters are different when analysing Unders/Overs (here for example aspects like nature of the league, style of the teams, nature of the clash, team news, H2H, special circumstances etc. etc, etc.) come into play. But at the end of the day/analysis you have your percentages. You compare them to the price on offer. And if that holds value, you place your bet. End of the story....

P.S.: "Strangely" enough for me and many of my betting friends Under/Over is one of the most profitable markets. Not for days, weeks or months, but for many years in a row. Man, man, man, we must be really lucky people and should also buy tickets for the lottery then I guess, ;-).

could not agree more. Nothing is "lottery" in a football outcome. Everything has a certain probability based on many factors that both bookmakers and punters try to evaluate as precisely as can be.The 2 main problems for the punters imho are :
1. Bookmakers have more information about many details that might affect the game, while punters usually use certain and limited criteria for the evaluation (for example most of us will check the table, the form, the h2h and the latest injuries/absents/ comebacks for a team, while there are or might be many other factors that we dont take into account, just because we are not professionals/do not have the time/do not have the patience etc etc)
2. We are getting emotionally involved into it, backing teams that we "like", backing teams that "have gained us profit", betting on teams or leagues we have never seen even in one game just because "we have a tip from a friend/good tipster etc.

I found myself backing Olympiakos in the last game with Aris at odds around 2.00, WITH NO BETTING VALUE AT ALL considering the situation in both teams, just because I WOULD LIKE Olympiakos to win and stay ahead of Pao in the table. I usually try to avoid such mistakes but no matter how much you try sometimes, you get carried away.