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Laying teams after European games

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  • mantis
    replied
    Strategy Summary - by FORMLAB

    Does a mid week European fixture really impact team performance come the weekend, or are squads big enough now to handle the extra load? We examine data from across the ‘big 5 leagues’ to see if there really was an impact. We found that in general, a mid week European fixture had very little impact on team performance. In the case of a home team playing after a mid week fixture, there could be an edge in backing the home team.

    WHAT’S THE REAL IMPACT OF A MID-WEEK EUROPEAN FIXTURE?

    We often hear commentators talk about the ‘distraction’ of European football, but is this yet another football myth? Do teams really perform worse after a European tie, or are pundits and even bookmakers over estimating the impact?

    Champions League Impact

    To find out, we have analysed 10 seasons worth of data from the big 5 leagues looking at teams that qualified for the Champions League. First we looked at the domestic games for teams in the Champions League, irrespective of whether it followed a European tie or not. At home, these teams won 64% of games while drawing 22% and losing 15%.

    Furthermore, using average odds, backing the home team on each occasion would have yielded a 3.7% ROI loss at an average price of 1.63. The table Performance of teams who qualified for the Champions League:

    Home/Away Matches Win % Draw % Loss % Win ROI (%) Draw ROI (%) Loss ROI (%)

    Home 3363 64% 22% 15% -3.7% -16.8% -24.8%

    Away 3363 43% 27% 30% -8.9% -11.8% -9.4%

    N.B. Replacing average odds with best prices would improve returns by approximately 5%.

    How do these figures change when the league game is after a European game?

    Performance of teams after Champions League Games:

    Home/Away Matches Win % Draw % Loss % Win ROI (%) Draw ROI (%) Loss ROI (%)

    Home 817 62% 23% 15% -3.8% -9.5% -30.7%
    Away 749 42% 27% 31% -9.5% -10.5% -11.5%

    Perhaps surprisingly there is very little change in either the results or the resultant P&Ls. Interestingly,however, the win ROI at home in the 408 matches that came after an away game in Europe was +1.0%.

    The bookies may therefore be slightly over estimating the impact of an away Champions League tie on the team’s next domestic game.

    Europa League Impact

    We can also see how teams that qualified for the Europa League did after Europe in the past 10 seasons.

    Performance of teams after Europa League Games:

    Home/Away Matches Win % Draw % Loss % Win ROI (%) Draw ROI (%) Loss ROI (%)

    Home 556 54% 25% 21% 5.8% -16.0% -18.2%
    Away 532 32% 26% 42% -6.7% -16.6% -4.3%

    However, when we look at how the Europa League qualifiers faired after a European game we see that they were highly underrated when at home with a 5.8% profit despite using average odds. Once again this return improves when following an away European game, with the home win returning a 7.2% profit from 276 games.

    Summary: The real impact of European football

    In summary, it does seem that pundits might be over estimating the impact of European football. For the big teams it makes very little difference to their performance. In the case of away ties and Europa league games, the bookies themselves might be over estimating the impact on the performance of the home team.

    Backing the home side after an away game in Europe, especially a Europa League game could be a profitable strategy.

    =================

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  • Zebra$
    replied
    Cruz Azul ofc

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  • bera
    replied


    wich one will FAIL?

    DG 1 =home team score
    DG 2 = away team score

    Leave a comment:


  • Zebra$
    replied
    Here's my version for today:

    Toulouse BTS @ 2
    Altach BTS&over @ 2.2
    Standard Liege BTS @ 2
    Randers BTS @ 1.83
    Young Boys BTS&over @ 2.05
    Steaua BTS @ 2.1
    Debreceni BTS @ 2

    5/7 and 7/7

    Leave a comment:


  • Maple Leafs
    replied
    Originally posted by Zebra$ View Post
    Let me post this here too, not sure you're checking livescore topic.
    Tnx for inspiring me

    http://i61.tinypic.com/b5l3ip.jpg
    Wonderful ! Great picks

    Leave a comment:


  • Maple Leafs
    replied
    9 picks for tomorrow, 1 unit on each.

    Leave a comment:


  • Zebra$
    replied
    Let me post this here too, not sure you're checking livescore topic.
    Tnx for inspiring me

    http://i61.tinypic.com/b5l3ip.jpg

    Leave a comment:


  • Maple Leafs
    replied
    Originally posted by Zebra$ View Post
    Good catch with Partizan. I couldn't believe the odds.

    However I have to criticize you for taking Salzburg. The subject here is "laying teams after European games", not betting on them
    I understand that you didn't trust Admira today but in such situations you're allowed to skip. I personally took BTS & over 2.5 at lousy odds.

    Cheers
    Good pick ! You're right. Now i'll focus ONLY on teams played twice in a row at home.
    Odds was juicy for subotica, that's true.

    Tomorrow new pics.

    Leave a comment:


  • Zebra$
    replied
    Good catch with Partizan. I couldn't believe the odds.

    However I have to criticize you for taking Salzburg. The subject here is "laying teams after European games", not betting on them
    I understand that you didn't trust Admira today but in such situations you're allowed to skip. I personally took BTS & over 2.5 at lousy odds.

    Cheers

    Leave a comment:


  • Maple Leafs
    replied
    Well, today i focus only on teams who will play twice in a row at home except Salzburg. I don't trust on Admira today.

    Bet365 offer 8,00 for Subotica "score in first". I take it !
    By the way 3,75 for BTTS is a value too.

    6 bets, 1 unit on each.

    Last edited by Maple Leafs; 08-08-15, 14:22.

    Leave a comment:


  • Zebra$
    replied
    Didn't Sturm play 1-1?

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  • Maple Leafs
    replied
    Some interesting picks but for the moment the balance is equal with two rounds.

    Hajduk Split surprised, Tromso destroyed, Rosenborg in difficulty, Zilina on a fantastic run (7 wins in a row).


    Leave a comment:


  • Maple Leafs
    replied
    Games for sunday (after EL games, thursday)

    27 games with 1 unit on each + 3 double games (see below)

    For years I strongly take into consideration tiredness accumulated by the teams that played in European Cup matches during the midweek and replaying for their domestic league. This is the goal of my system...

    For Sunday there are 30 bets for 1 unit each. The 27 that you see in blue in table + 3 BTTS matches that I have been able to lack of space in the columns.

    Elfsborg - Halmstad : BTTS @2,23
    Standard - Zulte Waregem BTTS @ 1,88
    Hajduk Split - Slaven Kop. BTTS @ 1,77


    Those teams will play two games in-a-row at home, and i'll lay with insane odds for : "First team to score".
    I found 5,20 odd from 188BET for first Halmstad goal !

    Last edited by Maple Leafs; 31-07-15, 10:06.

    Leave a comment:


  • Maple Leafs
    replied
    Games for saturday (after CL games, wednesday)

    6 games with BTTS = 1 unit on each

    Tomorrow games for sunday.

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  • Maple Leafs
    replied
    Originally posted by Zebra$ View Post
    I made a random 6/8 combo with BTS when you started the topic and won 6/8
    Last 2 I added were Slovan and Legia

    This is Slovan 3rd home defeat in a row against Myjava and all 3 finished 0-1. Damn idiots.
    Legia conceded or so they showed at least at the start of 2nd half but I guess it was disallowed.
    Great !

    I've made many combos (3 or 4 games each) too. Most of those had won.

    True, strange game at Slovan stadium...

    Leave a comment:

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