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Laying teams after European games

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    Laying teams after European games

    Hello my friends,

    Like you, for years I seek for the best bets and especially the less popular. I have done many studies on various options that consider only one thing: TIREDNESS teams AFTER an European Cup game (Champions League OR Europa League).

    Just a few years I had created the same type of bets after the European Cup games but my aim was to take in consideration only : THE FIRST TEAM TO SCORE. And i've got juicy odds...

    Last week I did the next ticket (see photo below). The odds for the first goal from Bodo at 3.90 was insane. All these teams had played in the European Cup during the week except VPS.

    For now i focus on Europa League games and ONLY THOSE.
    Most different country starts now. Some, like the big countries are not yet started. But already, we can find juicy odds.

    I have spend a lot of time to create the table below. Thanks to respect my work.

    Now my thought :

    1) I have taken ONLY the teams had played THURSDAY and replay for their domestic league SUNDAY. Not an other day !

    2) The column numbers are on the bottom.

    3) Legend :

    1 - Teams
    2, 3 and 4 - European games scores
    5 - Games for their domestics leagues SUNDAY
    6 - MY PICKS (in green the value for me). BTS (both team to score). Most of those are moderate, but you can choose a risky one
    7 - Odds taken from oddscomparaison.com (i post now cause odds will decrease)
    8 - Results
    9 - Commentaries

    My bets are virtual here, but real with my local bookie.
    Sunday evening i'll post the results.

    My virtual Jackpot start with 28 units
    I bet one unit on EACH game (28. I haven't yet odds for 4 games).


    Your commentaries will be appreciate



    Last edited by Maple Leafs; 30-07-15, 23:52. Reason: need to change the title

    #2
    I like the general idea but I would stick to one thing here, either BTS (or first to score) or straight fading the tired teams (straight win, dnb, double chance, depending on the odds).

    Did you keep track of the results in previous years? Do you have any numbers, success rate or anything like that?

    I'll probably follow you but I'm not sure how yet, thinking of making a system with 8-10 games.

    Comment


      #3
      the Problem is maybe , that Most of the Teams are pros, so i see the reason Not so high in laying them. especially when they played at home in Midweek

      Comment


        #4
        No i don't keep the stats cause it was date to date. But i pretty sure than 70% of my predictions will be good...
        It's always complicated to play two games in-a-row at home, and harder when the second is for domestic league. Often the result is a DRAW.
        It will take so many time to make statistics for the past. But i'll try to do for this season...

        Comment


          #5
          Keep in mind : we are at the beginning of the season. And 4 games in 10 days are not anodyne even if most of the teams are professionals.

          I'll LAY particulary ALL THE TEAMS had played both 2 games at home in 3 days :

          Debrecen
          Brøndby
          Odd
          UCD
          MSK Zilina
          Wolfsberger
          Last edited by Maple Leafs; 26-07-15, 10:23.

          Comment


            #6
            Update :

            Stromsgodset - Molde -----> Postponed

            Special bets (1 unit on each) Odds from Betfair :

            Debrecen - Puskas -----> Puskas 1st to score @ 3.65
            Brøndby Odense -------> Odense 1st to score @ 2.66
            Odd - Tromsø -----------> Tromsø 1st to score @ 3.05
            UCD - Finn Harps -------> Finn Harps 1st to score @ 2.40
            MSK Zilina - Moravce ---> Moravce 1st to score @ 5.90 !
            Wolfsberger - Austria ---> Austria 1st to score @ 1.94

            Comment


              #7
              I dont see a clear reason why you would choose first team to score bets. If teams are tired wont they feel it in the 2nd half? Secondly, I think the effect is biggr as the season progresses

              You should be able to backtest it. For example with the help of betfair data

              Your thoughts are interesting but at the moment you havent done your homework yet and you make assumptions (example winrate) without supporting them with facts

              Good luck though

              Comment


                #8
                This was good few years ago but now bookies have adjusted their odds as even average punter know that teams have played Euro game and will play again in couple of days and think about that when their make their bets. And for every year squads become stronger and with better physics so they can play twice in week without much problems.
                If you want to make money on this you must be very selective and have correct info.
                Logic and observation always separate the winners from the losers, and in all this it is the long run that counts

                Comment


                  #9
                  I think it makes sense in these early stages and with teams whose season hasn't started or is just starting so I would avoid the Scandinavians, Baltic, Kazakh etc... teams who are already in good shape.
                  It's game day so let's wait and see how it goes.

                  Comment


                    #10



                    Score for Istra 1961 wasn't finish yet, but with 3-0 it seems i can check it

                    Only 9 teams failed to score on 28...
                    And big surprises ! Falkenberg victory, Odd had scored during the injury time, Slovan Bratislava still sleeping, Trnava and Boleslav defeated...

                    Perhaps BTS on all the game must have been better. Anyway, i'll continue my prolific system created since 10 years.
                    After european cup it always difficult for most of the teams to be concentrated for domestic league.

                    Next system saturday with European CL (played thuesday and wednesday). And of course next week after the Europa League 3QR.
                    Last edited by Maple Leafs; 27-07-15, 01:14.

                    Comment


                      #11
                      I made a random 6/8 combo with BTS when you started the topic and won 6/8
                      Last 2 I added were Slovan and Legia

                      This is Slovan 3rd home defeat in a row against Myjava and all 3 finished 0-1. Damn idiots.
                      Legia conceded or so they showed at least at the start of 2nd half but I guess it was disallowed.

                      Comment


                        #12
                        Originally posted by Zebra$ View Post
                        I made a random 6/8 combo with BTS when you started the topic and won 6/8
                        Last 2 I added were Slovan and Legia

                        This is Slovan 3rd home defeat in a row against Myjava and all 3 finished 0-1. Damn idiots.
                        Legia conceded or so they showed at least at the start of 2nd half but I guess it was disallowed.
                        Great !

                        I've made many combos (3 or 4 games each) too. Most of those had won.

                        True, strange game at Slovan stadium...

                        Comment


                          #13
                          Games for saturday (after CL games, wednesday)

                          6 games with BTTS = 1 unit on each

                          Tomorrow games for sunday.

                          Comment


                            #14
                            Games for sunday (after EL games, thursday)

                            27 games with 1 unit on each + 3 double games (see below)

                            For years I strongly take into consideration tiredness accumulated by the teams that played in European Cup matches during the midweek and replaying for their domestic league. This is the goal of my system...

                            For Sunday there are 30 bets for 1 unit each. The 27 that you see in blue in table + 3 BTTS matches that I have been able to lack of space in the columns.

                            Elfsborg - Halmstad : BTTS @2,23
                            Standard - Zulte Waregem BTTS @ 1,88
                            Hajduk Split - Slaven Kop. BTTS @ 1,77


                            Those teams will play two games in-a-row at home, and i'll lay with insane odds for : "First team to score".
                            I found 5,20 odd from 188BET for first Halmstad goal !

                            Last edited by Maple Leafs; 31-07-15, 10:06.

                            Comment


                              #15
                              Some interesting picks but for the moment the balance is equal with two rounds.

                              Hajduk Split surprised, Tromso destroyed, Rosenborg in difficulty, Zilina on a fantastic run (7 wins in a row).


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