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"Zavaliya" style - Progressive 1:1 Strategy

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    "Zavaliya" style - Progressive 1:1 Strategy

    Hello, everybody!

    First of all, I have to say that my English is not perfect...

    However,
    It is a quite simple strategy:

    1. I bet only on Correct score market 1:1. I post it in Bulgarian forum and will keep the name I gave it: “Zavaliya" style.
    2. The stake is progressive starting with 1 unit. If the bet is a losing one – the stake for the next bet rising with another (1) unit. If the bet is a winning one – the stake for the next bet would be decreased with units equal to the winning Odds (mostly 6.0 – 7.0). Of course, the minimum stake is 1 unit.
    3. I will use bet365 and their option for voided bet when the result is 0:0 (very important!)
    4. Often I placed more than a single bet on matches, which are played simultaneously. In that case I compile them in Groups. The stake of the games in a Group is equal. The stake for the next game (or Group of games) will be calculated with this formulas:

    A/ If there is at least one winning bet in the previous match (Group of matches):
    The stake for the next match (Group of matches) = The stake of the previous match (Group of matches) + The total of numbers of matches in previous match (Group of matches) – The total of the winning Odds – The Total of the Voided bets – 1

    B/ If there isn't a winning bet in the previous match (Group of matches):
    The stake for the next match (Group of matches) = The stake of the previous match (Group of matches) + The total of numbers of matches in previous match (Group of matches) – The Total of the Voided bets

    5. Sometimes, it would be tough to divide the selected matches in Groups (because of the small gap between their starting time – kick-off). Than I will post additional explanation.
    6. If I decide to make additional amendments to the stake or the strategy, I will also post additional explanation.
    7. The starting bankroll is 1000 units, but I don't believe I need all of them.
    8. The starting time (kick-off) of the games will be in Bulgarian Time (GMT+2).
    9. I am very busy, but will try to maintain this threat and to reach decent records.

    The simple things = good things...

    #2
    For today, Tuesday (16.06.2015):

    Group 1 (Stake: 1 units for each bet)
    16:00 South Africa - Angola
    17:30 El Gounah - Petrojet
    18:30 El Daklyeh - Al Ittihad
    18:30 Haras El Hodood - El-Shorta
    18:30 HIFK - Rovaniemi
    19:00 Lazio 19 – Torino 19
    19:00 Norway U21 - Austria U21

    Group 2
    21:00 Estudiantes Caseros – Acasuso
    21:30 Italy - Portugal
    21:45 Poland - Greece
    22:30 Grenada - Puerto Rico
    22:30 Suriname - Nicaragua
    00:00 Paraguay – Jamaica
    01:30 Nautico - Paysandu PA

    Group 3
    03:50 Luverdense - Criciuma
    05:30 Seattle Sounders - Portland Timbers

    Group 4
    10:30 Serbia U20 - Mali U20

    Comment


      #3
      For Today, Wednesday (17.06.2015):

      Group 1
      13:00 Jeonbuk - Ulsan Hyundai
      13:00 Jeonnam - Seongnam
      14:00 Jeju Utd - Suwon

      Group 2
      18:30 El Masry - Enppi
      18:30 Misr Elmaqasah - Al Ahly
      18:30 Mariehamn - KuPS
      18:30 VPS - Lahti
      19:00 Czech Republic U21 - Denmark U21

      Group 3
      21:00 Club Luján - Justo José de Urquiza
      21:00 San Martín Burzaco - Argentino de Quilmes
      21:00 Zaragoza - Las Palmas
      21:30 General Lamadrid - Midland

      (18.06.2015) Group 4
      02:00 Richmond Kickers - Columbus Crew
      02:00 South Korea W - Spain W
      02:08 Pittsburgh - DC United
      02:30 Charleston - Orlando City
      02:30 New York Cosmos - New York City
      03:00 Brazil - Colombia

      I'll post the results for the day after all the games are finished.
      I'll do it when I have time for that, but will continue posting the matches for the next days in time.

      Comment


        #4
        In my posts with the results from the past days I will post the following things:

        1. The Groups of matches – the stake for the each match in them; the number of matches in the Group.
        2. The winning and voided bets with the Odds and the results (1:1 or 0:0 respectively).

        And after that, the following statistics:

        Total Bets:
        Won Bets:
        Void Bets:
        Total Staked:
        Total Won:
        Net Profit:
        Yield:

        Comment


          #5
          Results from Tuesday (16.06.2015):

          Group 1 (Stake: 1 units for each bet) – 7 bets
          18:30 HIFK – Rovaniemi 6.0 1:1
          19:00 Lazio 19 – Torino 19 7.0 1:1

          Group 2 (Stake: 1 units for each bet) – 7 bets
          21:45 Poland – Greece 0:0
          01:30 Nautico - Paysandu PA 6.5 1:1

          Group 3 (Stake: 1 units for each bet) – 2 bets
          05:30 Seattle Sounders - Portland Timbers 6.5 1:1

          Group 4 (Stake: 1 units for each bet) – 1 bet
          10:30 Serbia U20 - Mali U20 6.0 1:1


          Total Bets: 17
          Won Bets: 5
          Void Bets: 1
          Total Staked: 17 units
          Total Won: 33 units
          Net Profit: + 16 units
          Yield: +94.1 %

          Comment


            #6
            Results from Wednesday (17.06.2015):

            Results from Wednesday (17.06.2015):

            Group 1 (Stake: 1 unit for each bet) – 3 bets

            Group 2 (Stake: 4 units for each bet) – 5 bets

            Group 3 (Stake: 9 units for each bet) – 4 bets
            21:30 General Lamadrid - Midland 0:0

            Group 4 (Stake: 12 units for each bet) – 6 bets
            02:08 Pittsburgh - DC United 6.5 1:1


            ! I'll add another indicator to the statistics. It is "Total Won Odds". It will be useful comparing "Zavaliya" style with the simple flat betting. !

            Total Bets: 35
            Won Bets: 6
            Void Bets: 2
            Total Won Odds: 38.5
            Total Staked: 148 units
            Total Won: 120 units
            Net Profit: -28 units
            Yield: -18.9 %

            Comment


              #7
              Here I'll explain how the stake for each Group from Wednesday is calculated using the formulas (A/ and B/) in my first post:


              The Stake for Group 1 from Wednesday is calculated using formula A/, because the only bet in the last Group from Tuesday (Group 4) is a winning one.

              So, the Stake for Group 1 from Wednesday = 1+1-6-0-1 = -5 (of course, the Stake can not be smaller than 1 unit, so it is 1 unit per bet.

              -------
              The Stake for Group 2 from Wednesday is calculated using formula B/, because all the bets (3) in Group 1 from Wednesday haven't won.

              So, the Stake for Group 2 from Wednesday = 1+3-0 = 4 units per bet.

              -------

              The Stake for Group 3 from Wednesday is calculated using formula B/, because all the bets (5) in Group 2 from Wednesday haven't won.

              So, the Stake for Group 3 from Wednesday = 4+5-0 = 9 units per bet.

              -------

              The Stake for Group 4 from Wednesday is calculated using formula B/, because all the bets (4) in Group 3 from Wednesday haven't won.

              So, the Stake for Group 4 from Wednesday = 9+4-1 = 12 units per bet.

              -------

              After that we can calculate the Stake for the games in Group 1 for Today (Thursday):

              The Stake for Group 1 for Thursday is calculated using formula A/, because the bet Pittsburgh - DC United from the last Group from Wednesday (Group 4) is a winning one.

              So, the Stake for Group 1 from Thursday = 12+6-6.5-1 = 10 units per bet.
              (The .5 Odds will be round to the bigger number, for example 5.5=6; 6.5=7)

              Comment


                #8
                For Today, Thursday (18.06.2015):

                Group 1 (stake 10 units)
                14:00 Estonia U19 - Latvia U19

                Group 2
                19:00 Italy U21 - Sweden U21
                20:20 Degerfors - Syrianska
                21:00 Berazategui - Talleres Escalada
                21:00 Cañuelas - San Telmo
                21:00 San Miguel - Central Cordoba
                21:45 England U21 - Portugal U21

                Group 3
                02:30 Peru - Venezuela
                03:00 Figueirense - Internacional

                Comment


                  #9
                  Results from Thursday (18.06.2015):

                  Results from Thursday (18.06.2015):

                  Group 1 (stake 10 units) - 1 bet

                  Group 2 (stake 11 units for each bet) - 6 bets
                  21:00 Berazategui - Talleres Escalada 7.0 1:1
                  21:00 San Miguel - Central Cordoba 0:0

                  Group 3 (stake 8 units for each bet) - 2 bets
                  03:00 Figueirense - Internacional 0:0

                  Total Bets: 44
                  Won Bets: 7
                  Void Bets: 4
                  Total Won Odds: 45.5
                  Total Staked: 240 units
                  Total Won: 216 units
                  Net Profit: -24 units
                  Yield: -10.0 %

                  The Stake for the next Group will be 9 units.

                  Comment


                    #10
                    For Today, Friday (19.06.2015):

                    Group 1 (stake: 9 units for each bet)
                    13:15 Bentleigh Greens - Heidelberg Utd
                    13:15 Port Melbourne Sharks - Avondale Heights SC

                    Group 2
                    19:00 Jelgava - Spartaks

                    Group 3
                    00:00 Mexico - Ecuador
                    01:30 Sampaio Correa - Bahia
                    03:00 Gimnasia Mendoza - Ferro
                    03:00 Sportivo Belgrano - Instituto
                    03:30 Saint Louis - Colorado Springs
                    04:00 Colorado Rapids - FC Dallas
                    Last edited by kapkap; 19-06-15, 10:41.

                    Comment


                      #11
                      Interesting strategy...

                      While you explained stakes in details, you haven't touched a selection process at all. Is it secret, or you can explain, how do you select the matches? Statistics, news, gut feeling, what?

                      And what is "Total Won Odds", I don't understand that number?

                      Comment


                        #12
                        I forgot two games...

                        Addition to Group 3
                        04:30 Senegal U20 - Mali U20

                        and Group 4 (tomorrow morning)
                        08:00 Brazil U20 - Serbia U20

                        Comment


                          #13
                          Originally posted by BetGPS View Post
                          Interesting strategy...

                          While you explained stakes in details, you haven't touched a selection process at all. Is it secret, or you can explain, how do you select the matches? Statistics, news, gut feeling, what?

                          And what is "Total Won Odds", I don't understand that number?
                          Hi,

                          The Stake movement is essential for the strategy.
                          We gain units (even with win rate not big enough to cover our expenses with flat stake betting) because of that stake movement - each won bet covers five (for example the winning odds is 6.0) losing bets with smaller stakes. Every return to the smaller stakes means profit...

                          6 games (played one after anoteher):

                          Stakes:

                          1+2+3+4+5+6=21 units total stakes.
                          The last game win with odds 6.0, so 6*6.0=36 units profit and great ROI.

                          I like to bet on draw (X) and I have more than 10 000 bets in my spreadsheets with decent win rate.

                          That's why I believe the Strategy is profitable in long term.
                          Of course, there are few minuses, which can be defeated with big bankroll, strong discipline and few amendments from time to time.

                          The selection process is based mostly on Statistics and good feeling (huge experisnce doing this).

                          Total Won Odds = It is the total of the Odds of the winning bets (6.0+6.5+6.5+7.0+6.0+6.5+7.0 = 45.5)

                          Comment


                            #14
                            For Today, Saturday (20.06.2015):


                            Group 1
                            10:00 Nagoya - Kashiwa
                            10:00 Tosu - FC Tokyo
                            10:00 Seongnam - Gwangju FC
                            10:00 Shonan - Albirex Niigata
                            10:00 Yokohama M. - Kashima
                            10:00 Kobe - Urawa
                            10:35 Hangzhou Greentown - Jiangsu Sainty

                            Group 2
                            13:00 Jeonnam - Seoul
                            13:00 Seoul E. - Sangju Sangmu
                            13:00 Busan - Pohang
                            13:30 Xinjiang Tianshan - Tianjin SongJiang
                            14:30 Hunan Xiangtao - Yanbian
                            14:35 Shandong Luneng - Guangzhou Evergrande
                            14:35 Chongqing Lifan - Guangzhou R&F
                            14:45 Shanghai Shenhua - Liaoning
                            15:00 Tobol - Atyrau

                            Group 3
                            18:00 Raków - Pogon Siedlce
                            18:00 Argentino de Quilmes - Dock Sud
                            18:00 Villa San Carlos - UAI Urquiza
                            18:00 Platense - Dep. Merlo
                            19:00 Serbia U21 - Czech Republic U21
                            19:30 Ath Bilbao B - Cadiz
                            20:00 Los Andes - Atl. Tucuman
                            20:30 Deportivo Espanol - Deportivo Armenio
                            20:30 Huracan - Huesca
                            21:00 Concepción FC - CA San Martín Tucumán
                            21:30 Defensores de Belgrano - Almirante Brown
                            21:30 Barracas Central - CA Estudiantes
                            21:30 Tristan Suarez - Brown Adrogue
                            21:45 Germany U21 – Danemark U21
                            22:00 Uruguay - Paraguay
                            22:00 Union Mar del Plata - Guillermo Brown
                            22:30 Flamengo RJ - Atletico-MG
                            22:30 El Raja - El Daklyeh
                            22:30 Santos - Corinthians
                            22:30 El Ismaily - El Gaish
                            22:30 Al Ittihad - Smouha

                            Group 4
                            02:00 New York Red Bulls - Vancouver Whitecaps
                            02:00 Charlotte Independence - Charleston
                            02:30 China W - Cameroon W
                            02:45 All Boys - Ind. Rivadavia
                            03:00 Gremio - Palmeiras
                            03:00 Montreal Impact - Orlando City
                            04:00 Central Cordoba - Atletico Parana

                            Comment


                              #15
                              For Today, Sunday (21.06.2015):

                              Group 1
                              13:00 Kyoto - Tochigi
                              13:00 Okayama - Ehime
                              13:00 Ansan Police - Anyang
                              14:30 Wuhan Zall - Harbin Yiteng

                              There will be additional matches for Today...

                              Comment

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