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My Lay strategy

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    My Lay strategy

    Ok. my strategy is very simple. it is based on the favorite teams, all from football and it can be played at betfair, betsson or other bookmaker that offers exchange.

    We often see that without a good analyse we can't predict who'll win (nither this way, but we have more chances) and day by day we see our bank decreasing because we are greedy and we can't have just one or two matches/day, we see A TEAM at home and B TEAM who ... and take them too. at the and of the day we see that we don't have any profit because we played on too many games.

    I'll give you an example:

    On Saturday there are many games, you don't know what to chose. you take Milan @ 1.30, Inter @ 1.25...TEAM X @ 1.50, let's say 10 games at about 1.50 odd each, witch 10u stake

    10u x 1.50 = 15u (+5u profit)

    It's very hard to catch them all because there are always surprises

    5 win - 5 lose = -25u
    6 win - 4 lose = -10u
    7 win - 3 lose = +5u

    So you have to win 7 and lose just 3 games to have profit, and the odds I have put are bigger than what you'll find

    Now here is my strategy:

    I'll find all the favorite teams of the day and lay them. if you are 99% sure of a game...LAY it too, there will be always one surprise.


    [email protected]
    Last edited by [email protected]; 30-09-10, 13:32.

    #2
    I know sometime is hard to understand (+ my english suck's) so I will give you a concret example for today's fixture:

    Club Brugge @ 1.24 (-2.4u)
    Anderlecht @ 1.47 (+10u)
    Standard @ 1.42 (-4.2u)
    Aston Villa @ 1.97 (-9.7u)
    Chelsea @ 1.34 (+10u)
    Wigan @ 1.75 (-7.5u)
    Sochaux @ 1.60 (+10u)
    Dortmund @ 1.55 (-5.5u)
    Leverkusen @ 1.78 (-7.8u)
    Inter @ 1.51 (-5.1u)
    Napoli @ 1.71 (+10u)
    Almeria @ 1.81 (+10u)
    Barcelona @ 1.17 (-1.7u)

    All games layed with 10u stake. we'll see tonight if there are any surprises
    Last edited by [email protected]; 22-09-10, 22:53.

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      #3
      After 1 day I have +6.1u profit without any statistic, whit more free time that you are losting when analyzing

      ...yesterday I was unlucky because most of the favorite teams win their match. I see more profit in the next week!!

      Comment


        #4
        Originally posted by [email protected] View Post
        After 1 day I have +6.1u profit
        No, you have not. Because you've forgot the betfair comission... +3.6 is better...

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          #5
          I didn't say that I'm playing at betfair...betsson doesn't have any comission

          Anyway, the idea is that I have profit

          Comment


            #6
            For yesterday I've played on:

            Sion (+10u)
            Sevilla (+10u)
            Steaua Bucharest (-4.4u)
            Breda (-6.5u)
            FC Nordsj. (-7u)

            Profit +2u ... every team layed with 10u stake.

            Last edited by [email protected]; 24-09-10, 13:42.

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              #7
              For today I've picked many games, as same, all with 10u stake. hope to get some surprises

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                #8
                For yesterday I caught just 5 surprises from 16 game, also profit !!

                Comment


                  #9
                  If betfair take comission then I have 9.5u instead of 10u for winner bets, so my final profit is 3u !!

                  I do not need any statistic about the games, any effort, just lay all most favorite teams .

                  I'll take some games for today, maybe I'll be lucky and get more profit...

                  Comment


                    #10
                    This strategy won't profit in a long term, market liquidity on betting exchanges have very accuracy estimations. Maybe if you're good, you can make some small profit, but if you just laying favourites sides, exchange commisions will get you to lose. It's only question of time, trust me. I like to bet on this if it's possible also :-)

                    Comment


                      #11
                      We'll see...

                      Brondby (+9.5u)
                      Valerenga (-2.1u)
                      Apollon Limasol (+9.5u)
                      Omonia (+9.5u)
                      Dinamo Zagreb (-3.5u)
                      Levski Sofia (-5.5u)
                      Andrelecht (-3.9u)
                      Cerno More (-3.6u)
                      NEC (-7.5u)
                      Last edited by [email protected]; 26-09-10, 22:10.

                      Comment


                        #12
                        It looks interesting. If you combined it with a little research it could become even better.
                        Dont know if you looking to go + with as little effort as possible or if the profit is more important then a little research would do some good I think.

                        Like not laying Barca and Real for example.
                        But Lay more smal favourites in German, french, Italy and so on, these leagues together with the English are getting more and more competative. Also I think the huge favourites in Tennis and some hockey leagues (specially european) could also provide good profit.

                        Defintely I like this better, risking less on opposing big favourites with higer profits, then risk more on Huge favourites and have ridiculous odds as we know there are no value in them.

                        For example Grefstad said there are many injuries in Brann and then we could take that one out of the list (VĂ¥lerenga - brann). And make soem exceptions here and there like Chelsea and Man U at home and as mentioned Real at home and maybe take Barca out completely in the league when they hit form.

                        Comment


                          #13
                          Originally posted by [email protected] View Post
                          We'll see...

                          Brondby (+9.5u)
                          Valerenga (-2.1u)
                          Apollon Limasol (+9.5u)
                          Omonia (+9.5u)
                          Dinamo Zagreb (-3.5u)
                          Levski Sofia (-5.5u)
                          Andrelecht (-3.9u)
                          Cerno More (-3.6u)
                          NEC (-7.5u)
                          Profit +6u

                          Comment


                            #14
                            On september I've got some good profit. I hadn't enought time to post all my daily bets but I'll do this starting with this month.

                            The bets witch I've posted here show that I have 17.1u profit (including the comission took by betfair) just in 4 days and without any statictics
                            Last edited by [email protected]; 08-10-10, 11:26.

                            Comment


                              #15
                              October

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