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What % ROI would you say should be one's target?

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    What % ROI would you say should be one's target?

    Thanks to this forum I learnt so much about betting and betting for value on singles being the only way to bet. It's so true - it's the way a casino makes its money, by every wager the odds making it a positive value bet for the house.

    I am experimenting a lot in recent times, trying to improve my strategy and tweek things to try get more and more value. At the moment I am showing a -9% ROI over my last 500 single bets. Obviously that is a loss but I started my first 200 bets showing a -20% loss so it's improving.
    If I can prove that my strategy works over a thousand bets I will then start lumping large unit stakes on.
    For those who are doing something similar to me, what ROI are you aiming for and achieving? Is +10% too much to ever expect?

    Yes, +10% is hard to get over time.
    I?d say around 5% is doable, if you have discipline and are recording all your bets (for your own information only).

    The bigger the sample base, the harder it is to get a proper profit out of betting.
    So, in other words, getting 10% profit out of 100 bets is much easier than getting 10% out of 1000 bets.

    Remember, you are fighting against the juice of the bookmaker, which, depending on league and sport, is around 5% at least, maybe more at some bookies.
    So, if you are betting on a coin flip (50% chance), most bookies would give you 1.95 for heads, and 1.95 for tails. Or maybe 1.97 at some low juice bookies (Pinnacle, etc).
    But as you can see, you are already starting with a handicap. As the number of bets grow higher, the bookies advantage grows higher.

    The only way you can beat the bookie is by hunting for value, in all bets. Find "wrong" odds, and bet on those.

    "A furore normannorum libera nos, domine"
    - "Oh, Lord, from the fury of the Norsemen, deliver us"


      I disagree. The best tipster I know of is not a value tipster but a positive high winrate tipster. His 'secret' is high knowledge in his nieche tier league. Maybe that can be considered as 'value betting' but those other positive ROI value tipsters are more often than not with poor negative winrate so I don't consider him as a value tipster. By the way, I'm gladly paying for his service because he knows so much about his domestic league.


        I also must disagree with 'value on singles' being the 'only' way to success.In real life I know personally few multiple high stake combo bettors that are often investing thousands of dollars on 4,5,6 odd combos with 3-4 sometimes 5 picks. They are very good and I'm quite impressed from what they showed me. However, I could never do what they do because combo betting is really hard for most of us, but I've seen with my own eyes people earning big chunks of money on combo high stakes. Their winrate is also mostly positive believe it or not.


          Valid points.

          For me, it all depends on which niche/league you are targetting.
          +10% over time on English Premier is almost impossible,
          +10% over time on Spanish Segunda or Norwegian 1.division may be doable. The better known league, the harder it is to make profit in the long run, as the bookies have the advantage due to knowledge and the "juice".

          As for picking winners, I have seen many tipsters with low hit rates, but with high profits, as they are able ti identify "wrong" odds quickly, i.e value odds. This comes with experience

          So, as an example, when they see Derby play Boro away, and get 5.0 on Derby, knowing that Derby historically (in newer history anyway) have win around 30% of their games away at Boro, they will jump on 5.0 in the blind, knowing it represents huge value.
          I.e, they dont care about form, table positions, etc, just betting on the game from a statistical/mathematical point of view.
          I think that can well be profitable, but you will need to stomach all the losses before you eventuelly win (stomach a low hit rate).

          The other way around is to bet on teams with form and motivation on their side, all the time. Often these teams will be poorly priced, as bookies rightly fear their form and motivation, but the hit rate will be higher. The question arises: will the hit rate be good enough to cover the underpriced odds on the winners, when you also count the inevitable "surprise" results which results in a lost bet?

          To make an example:

          Bet on a low odds team, team A to win, at odds 1.67, flat stakes 10 units, for 10 games.
          If the odds is "correct", team A will win approx 7 of their 10 games, to justify the odds. This means you will win 7 out of 10 bets.
          After 10 bets you will have staked 100 units (10 x 10).
          After 10 bets you will have won 117 units (7 x 10 x 1,67)
          The profit after 10 games is 17 units (17 %).

          But what if team A did not win 7 of 10 games? They only won 6 out of 10 games instead (fine margins, VAR, strange things, etc).

          Then the maths will look like this:
          After 10 bets you will have staked 100 units (10 x 10).
          After 10 bets you will have won 100 units (6 x 10 x 1,67)
          The profit after 10 games is 0 units (0 %).

          So, here you see the most important thing in betting. The ability to consider the odds on offer, in relation to the realistic winning chance (both over time and as a one-off).
          Too many punters forget this.

          "A furore normannorum libera nos, domine"
          - "Oh, Lord, from the fury of the Norsemen, deliver us"


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