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Money Management Betting System with winning rate just 50%.

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    Money Management Betting System with winning rate just 50%.

    Please can you tell me your opinion about this strategy? The most experience of you is sure that have something to share with me. I have started with a similar one from 60€ and made 930€ after some months of exercising.
    This system is based on statistics. I don't have to bother about the teams.
    The target is to win the number of bets needed, depending on the strategy I follow.
    And the choices I make give the profitable results.

    What do I mean?

    The odds that a bookmaker gives for example for the home win of a team, is relevant to the possibilities of the win to be achieved.

    For example: under of 1.45 succeed almost 63% ,
    under of 1.55 succeed almost average 56%,
    over of 1.50 succeed 54% ,
    over of 1.40 succeed almost average 62% etc.

    All these successful bets show to me that if I bet 100 times I may win from 54 to 63 of them if I choose odds like that.
    We all know that if I make flat betting, -just bet a specific amount of money to each bet- I will lose my money.
    But if I follow some strategies to take advantage of the number of wins I make - more than the losses- then I will make profit.

    So, I want the possibilities to verify my choices. And why over - under?

    Some leagues and some teams are made for playing football we all want. For example, some teams in Holland Eredivisie play to score as much goals they can. It’s their mentality. If a team knows how to score, then scores. If a team knows how to keep a result, then always try to keep it. This is what they know to do.
    This rule helps to raise the percentage of success that the odds by themselves try to verify.
    If I can play 100 games and win 60 of them then I have profit for sure.

    Let’s move to the system

    This system is designed to give me a standard profit after every bet.To follow this strategy I need a win rate of 50+ % of the total number of bets. So I have to choose odds that in the long run give me more than 50% success.
    I bet on sports over-under between 1.40 - 1.70 at most, unless the possibilities of the result are better and also giving a high odd more than 1.70.
    Let me built a random scenario which will give me at the end a 50% success.

    Start 200€
    Always Target Win 5€
    Stable Odd 1.57

    I have created a software at my website called "MyBettingManager" that manages and records my bets, and using a built in calculator proposes my next bet.
    Below is the way the next bet is calculated.
    -----------------------------------------------------------------------
    Next Bet = (Target Win + Previous Losts )/(Odd -1)
    Next Bet = (5€ 0€)/(1.57-1) = 8.77€

    Bet 8.77€. I lose.
    Total Bank 200€ - 8.77€ = 191.23€
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Next Bet = (Target Win + Previous Losts)/(Odd -1)
    Next Bet = (5€ + 8.77€)/(1.57-1) = 24,16€

    Bet 24.16€. I win. 37.93€.
    Real profit 37.93€ - 24,16€ = 13.77€
    Total Bank 191.23€ + 13.77€ = 205€

    As you see with 50% success I earned my first target and all the previous losts.
    Now I start from the beginning.
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Bet 8.77€. I win. 5€
    Total Bank 205€ + 5€ = 210€

    Now I start from the beginning again.
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Bet 8.77€. I lose.
    Total Bank 210€ - 8.77€ = 201.23€
    I write my losts. 8.77€. Calculate the next.

    Next Bet = (Target Win + Previous Losts)/(Odd -1)
    Next Bet = (5€ + 8.77€)/(1.57-1) = 24,16€
    --------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Bet 24.16€. I lose.
    Total Bank 201.23€ - 24.16€ = 177,07€
    I write besides my new losts 8.77€ 24.16€

    Now I’ve lost twice. But in the next calculation I will not include all the previous losts.
    Just the previous one. (24.16€)
    That is because my bets are going to become too high and I don't want to raise the risk.
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Bet 51.16€. I win. 80.32€.
    Real profit 80.32 - 51.16 = 29.16€ Previous 24.16€ + my target unit 5€.
    Total Bank 177.07€ + 29.16€ = 206.23€

    I erase the last losts 8.77€ 24.16€

    Calculate the next, including the losts I didn't win back. (8.77€)
    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Bet 24.16€. I lose.
    Total Bank 206.23€ - 24,16€ = 182.07€
    I write besides again my new losts 8.77€ 24.16€

    Calculate the next, including only the last losts. (24.16€)
    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Bet 51.16€. I win. 80.32€.
    Real profit 80.32 - 51.16 = 29.16€ Previous 24.16€ + my target unit 5€.
    Total Bank 182.07€ + 29.16€ = 211.23€

    I erase the last losts 8.77€ 24.16€

    Calculate the next, including the losts that left. (8.77€)
    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Bet 24.16€. I win. 37.93€.
    Real profit 37.93€ - 24,16€ = 13.77€
    Total Bank 211.23€ + 13.77€ = 225€

    I erase the last losts 8.77€

    And I start from the beginning.
    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------

    You see that in the previous 6 bets I had 50% success.

    But I won every unit of 5€ per winning bet and I took back all my previous losts.

    Now I have 225€ and I’ve started with 200€. I earned 5€ for every winning bet. And raise my account 12.5%.

    Depending on the account, I choose my unit per winning bet. With 200€ my target was 2€ per winning bet.

    Remember that I may have better win percentage than 50%.
    The odds which verify the possibilities by themselves, will help me to succeed.


    I know I may have a losing streak. But when I have a losing streak and the stake become too high,I split my losts to parts and try to win the parts.

    This is going to low the stakes.

    For example : I write besides my new losts 8.77€ 24.16€

    I can make it 8.77€ 8.06€ 8.06€ 8.04€
    Now I try to take back the last lost (8.04)

    I know that I will also have a winning streak too.

    My target is to raise my account at least 30% each month.

    For example: Account 1000€

    7/2014 1300€
    8/2014 1690€
    9/2014 2197€
    10/2014 2856€
    11/2014 3713€
    12/2014 4827€
    1/2015 6275€
    2/2015 8157€
    3/2015 10605€
    4/2015 13786€
    5/2015 17922€
    6/2015 23298€

    Only 30% raise my account. As I place all my money to an odd 1.30

    And This is only with a winning rate of 50%.
    The odds will give me better results. Because these are the possibilities.

    I can also take some tipsters from some professionals who are reading the teams all day and I can take a 65% to 70% winning success at these odds.

    What do you say about it?

    #2
    What do I say about it?

    Give it up. It's completely useless.

    If you don't have a positive EV (and you don't betting at odds of 1.57 and a 50% strike rate) then any staking system other than full loss chasing cannot mathematically return a profit over the long term. Full loss chasing (classical Martingale) is the only one that can, provided you have infinite time, infinite wealth, infinitely generous bookmakers and infinitely large balls. None of those things exist in the real world. The idiots who use Martingale of course aren't living in the real world, but in a place where they believe they have discovered something that no-one else has managed to.

    Bottom line: If you can't beat the market with level staking, give up trying to find money management methods that might help you. They don't exist.

    Comment


      #3
      Thanks for your opinion.

      Thanks my friend for your opinion. Is welcomed.

      I know that martingale is a disaster. But there is no way to change your mind. If you were telling me about losing runs and so I would spent time to explain everything. But you have already setup your opinion.

      Thanks again.

      Comment


        #4
        I accept that in sports betting, much is down to opinion.

        But when it comes to the mathematics of loss chasing, it is simply fact and that's all there is to it.

        You cannot, I repeat, cannot turn a -EV system into a +EV system just by changing the money management. All you can do is change the number of times you make a profit. With any form of loss chasing you can increase the number of time you make a profit relative to level staking, but this is at the expense of an increased risk of a much bigger individual loss. It doesn't matter what you do, you will still have the same EV in the long run.

        Has it not occurred to you that if such a thing were possible (i.e. reduce risk and increase reward), someone else would have already done it and won the Nobel prize for its impact in economics, or do you believe you are the first person to have stumbled upon some unique mathematics?

        Your method is just a safer version of Martingale, which applies stop losses to the loss chasing. It's nothing more. You will have more profitable outcomes than level stakes, and fewer than Martingale, and in return you will be taking on more risk than level stakes and less than Martingale. But in the long run you will have exactly the same EV.

        Your time would be much better spent devising ways to beat the market, not devising ways to fiddle with the risk-reward relationship. In the long run with -EV you will end up poor and the bookmakers will end up rich.

        Comment


          #5
          Sorry my friend I have to apologize for that but I am a newbie. Can you tell me what is EV? Expexted Value? And what is -EV? If you don't want to spent time explaining, can you refer a link to understand what you mean?
          Thanks.

          Comment


            #6
            Yes, EV = expected value.

            -EV = negative expected value
            + EV = positive expected value.

            Sorry for not being clearer.

            If you had an unbiased coin and someone offered you $11 for heads and you had to pay them $10 for tails you would have +EV, and your opponent would have -EV

            Of course anyone would be a bit stupid to offer you such a deal.

            But take a fair coin toss example (i.e. EV=0) and consider the effect of loss chasing on your risk and rewards. Below is a table of figures taken from my first book that describe the 8 possible permutations of red/black at roulette after 3 wheel spins and 3 bets (forgetting for the moment the zeros). The first show individual profits, probabilities and expectancies for Martingale, and the second shows them for level staking.



            All Martingale has achieved is an increase in the number of times we can expect to make a profit, in this example from 4, with level staking, to 5. Unfortunately, this is at the expense of one large loss, which is essentially the source of the inherent risk associated with Martingale staking. The longer the losing sequence the greater the risk to your bankroll.

            If you wanted you could recreate a similar table for your safer versions of loss chasing, for 3 bets, 5 bets, 10 bets or any number of bets (although computationally more than about 5 will get difficult so you'd be better off running a Monte Carlo simulation) but the results would be the same, that is to say an overall profit expectancy that is exactly the same as for level stakes, but greater inherent risk with which you bought the greater frequency of wins.

            Comment


              #7
              Joe should write only a simple math for people...
              For 50 percent winning rate u should hit odds over 2.00 to be in plus land...
              For odds of 1.40 u should hit 80 percent...
              That is for flat betting ofc.
              If u are using some kind of BM hit run could be lower(for martingale even down to 1/10)...
              So if u have made money keep on.Math is against u if u bet forever.

              Comment


                #8
                Not sure what you mean, disident, but I don't think you should be encouraging people to follow any form of loss chasing.

                The example I've presented is very clear: loss chasing changes nothing other than increases your risk.

                Comment


                  #9
                  Originally posted by JoeB View Post
                  Not sure what you mean, disident, but I don't think you should be encouraging people to follow any form of loss chasing.

                  The example I've presented is very clear: loss chasing changes nothing other than increases your risk.
                  Guy said made 930 from 60 starting bankroll.He bets on over/under low odds so he is hiting far more than 1/2 obviously.Math is against him ofc on a long term but that is a relative thing or I am wrong?

                  Comment


                    #10
                    Originally posted by disident View Post
                    Guy said made 930 from 60 starting bankroll.He bets on over/under low odds so he is hiting far more than 1/2 obviously.Math is against him ofc on a long term but that is a relative thing or I am wrong?
                    No, it's not obvious at all. It's probable, because betting at odds of 1.7 you'd have to be pretty unlucky to have a strike rate below 50%.

                    He hasn't said what his current strike rate is, nor how many bets he's placed with this system. We have no idea how his profit has evolved, nor have we any idea how long his losing runs have been and how close he's come to the whole think breaking down.

                    Regardless, the system is based around loss chasing and not on forecasting, so by definition it is simply a matter of time before it goes wrong. How long? Who knows, but loss chasing is fundamentally a stupid thing to do. It's what gambling addicts do. It's what turns a reasonable gambler into a gambling addict. It should never be encouraged, and anyone who blindly talks about his successes from it should be ridiculed (in my opinion) to deter others from doing it. There is no safe way to chase losses. It's always loss chasing that ruins gamblers.

                    The success from loss chasing relies on luck and nothing else. Loss chasing money management is inherently a very lazy system. There is nothing clever about it at all. The trade off for this laziness is the inevitability of much greater pain down the line. There are no free lunches in gambling. If you want more reward, you have to take more risk to get it. People who chase losses like this are craving far more reward than they deserve, and as a consequence the much greater risk in the end bites them hard in the arse.

                    Comment


                      #11
                      So what about if we determine future?Like "Wizards 8 percent advantage system" by Wizard of odds.Its a system designed for even bets like roulette but craps is strongly suggested due to a lower house edge.
                      1)Player makes only even bets
                      2)Player must be comfortable with a betting range of 1 to 1000 units
                      4)First bet is 1 unit
                      5)After each bet the player will determine 8.1 percent(the extra 0.1 is a margin safety)of his total past wagers.If his net win is less than this figure,he will bet the lesser of the difference and 1000 units.If his net win is more than he will bet 1 unit.
                      6)Repeat until 7500 bets

                      Comment


                        #12
                        Don't understand the system, you'll have to run through a series of wagers to make it clearer.

                        But I assume it's just more loss chasing, in which case my opinion is just the same. Total waste of time for a serious bettor.

                        OK, so loss chasing might be a bit of fun for a night at a casino. You take $100 or $1000 and you set yourself a goal to win a certain amount of profit in a certain amount of time by taking on a certain amount of loss chasing risk. If you succeed: great. If you fail and lose your bankroll: walk away. But a bit of fun is all it is.

                        As soon as you try to recover previous losses by increasing future stakes you increase the risk (usually dramatically). That's just how it is. The more you chase, the greater the risk.

                        For a serious bettor who wants to survive long term, the only way is to have +EV. It is almost always the case that punters who rave on about money management do so because they don't have +EV (well they think they do but they probably don't). Talk of money management is a complete waste of time until you do. It's largely a complete waste of time even if you do. Asian handicappers for example can quite happily bet the same stake every time and if they are skilled and have a 58% long term strike rate they can make a comfortable living from that without any other messing about with risk.

                        Comment


                          #13
                          I don't quite understand this system? How does it work? Am I risking my money? I have already lost a lot of money once and now I am very afraid of various frauds. Can it be easier to earn money and invest it in a Bank? I did this. My financial advisor advised me to do this. And he advised me not to invest in various questionable games of the system. So I advise those who are interested to seek help from a financial adviser, rather than risk it.

                          Comment

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