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Measuring the success...

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    Measuring the success...

    a) total profit in units ?
    b) percentage of profit on total stakes ?
    c) percentage of profit on your starting capital ?
    d) other ?

    I would like to hear thoughts and opinions about which is the safest way to measure your "Road to the Glory" or compare Tipping Services

    a (total profit in units) doesn't seem to work for punters or services that have a fixed stake money management plan (example all my bets are 10/10 units since the stake is fixed)

    b (percentage of profit on total stakes) looks to me the safest way to measure and compare as long as you set a minimum limit on the number of bets placed over a period (example min 150 bets per year)

    c (percentage of profit on your starting capital) hmmmm ok and what happens when you go negative ?

    I am very interested to hear your thoughts

    Cheers ------ mastoras

    #2
    My opinion...

    As regards the first one,i agree with you that it doesn't offer me satisfying
    information about my "success" ***959;r to judge the tipping services!!
    I think the better solution is something between the b and c
    methods and i believe the one corrects the other!!
    Because there is the possibility with the b method someone to have
    a big success of right bets but on the other hand he may have negative
    results as concerns the earned money!!
    About the third method i can say exactly the opposite.
    So my final thougth is something in the middle!!!

    AA!!A VALUE BET FOR TODAY???

    Comment


      #3
      Re: My opinion...

      Originally posted by hawklord
      Because there is the possibility with the b method someone to have a big success of right bets but on the other hand he may have negative results as concerns the earned money!!
      Hawklord with the (b) method you know exactly the results on earned money.

      Lemme give an example, matter of fact I will use as an example the results i had last year with my system (Jul 1st 01 - Jun 30th 02)

      Start Date: July 1st 2001
      End Date: June 30th 2002
      Starting Bank in Units: 150
      Total Numbers of Bets placed: 200
      Average odds 5,60 (all bets)
      Average odds 5,07 (bets won)
      Total Stakes in Units: 2.000
      Total Return in Units: 2.837,50
      Total Profit in Units: 837,50
      Bank end of season in Units: 987,50

      (a) method ----> 837,50 Units Profit

      (b) method ----> 837,50 / 2.000 * 100 = 41,87% Yield

      (c) method ----> 987,50 / 150 * 100 = 658,33% increase on capital

      The question is which one of the three ways to present results would you trust the most

      Cheers

      Comment


        #4
        ok then...

        As i can understand you are preparing of something!!!
        So after your fine example i prefer the third method!!!!
        it is very realistic one!!(and also much more "impressive" in my "eye").
        ***913;bout the second method i think it is a little more "difficult" method in a some way!!
        ***921; hope i was helpful(however i tried to be!!)

        See ya!!

        Comment


          #5
          ------a (total profit in units)
          ------b (percentage of profit on total stakes)
          ------c (percentage of profit on your starting capital)

          Hello! I am an expert of money management.

          The most importent parametres to compare services are:

          1) Profit
          2) Profit
          3) Profit

          Another parametres just help to orientate in situation. Only formula the more the better or the less the better can be actual:

          1) Picks per period - the more the better. Minimal number of plays to test must be 500.
          2) Odds per period - the higher average odds the better. If you have 5% yield with average odds 1.6 this result is less truthfull comparing if you have average odds 3.00 for example
          3) Average risk per stake - the less the better. If service has a risk per stake more then 3-4% - they will go broke on some interval. This is obivious fact
          4) If declaring yield for real full format service is higher then 10% (58-59% ATS - analogue) - this is scam.
          5) Agressive plans. If service has agressive plans double your attention.


          Also if service tend to declare monthly or weekly profit - this is scam. If service no past records and number of past records is less then 500 or handicap servicec speculating with perfomance like 90-50 (w-l) - this is also scam.

          That 's all. Another point - 90% of all prepaid services are scam!

          Unfortunatelly I can't show our documented records on website www.sportpro.adamant.net - site is down but after 540 picks we had a 8% yield profit and almost half year were monitored on betbrain's forum. We don't use agressive tactics - only statistically proven picks based on advantage over the line. Both ours and flat management generated positive yield. 8% in our case and 4% in flat's case. This is the REAL documented record in Europe and we were the best from list of services on www.football-data.co.uk website for 2001/2002 season. Also you can check their info because they comparing services. I think half of their data about comparing (robustness etc) isn't correct - anyway - it's normal site.

          ---------------(b) method ----> 837,50 / 2.000 * 100 = 41,87% Yield

          This is just a positive trend - don't fool yourself Also number of picks of 200 isn't enough to have an opinion about is your strategy works.

          Best regards
          ProBettor

          Comment


            #6
            Hi!

            I really can't add anything special regarding the subject which is the safest method to measure the success. It really depends on many 'factors' and I don't think that there is some 'absolute' method, which is the best. Every method has it's advantages and disadvantages. And they are already mentioned, so I wouldn't add anything special...

            Anyhow....

            Mastoras, as I promised you, here is the proposition. :wink:

            First of all, about your record.
            It is amazing. To have a bet-hit rate of 28% at average odds of your all bets @5.6 is astonishing, imo. Unbelievably good. Particularly considering the fact that you placed only 200 bets in that 'betting-season'. 200 picked, 56 correct, at average odds @5.6... Fantastic. So it must be your bet-selection. I am sure I would never be able to have such a record at those odds. Only 200 picks? Unbelievable bet-selection!

            So, I would propose you to start a new thread (in 'value' forum, or 'general p.' forum) where you would post every single pick you would go for. I think that it could be extremly helpful for most of the members, considering that awesome record of yours.
            Your stakes are fixed, so it wouldn't matter if would you write them as 1 or 10 units. You would update your stats regularly. And everybody would be able to see all your picks. Of course, you are not obliged to do this, but I think it would be cool. 8) And no matter if you wouldn't have a successful start. Just keep picks coming. And posts. I would love to see that.

            Mastoras, I really hope that you will accept this. There is no irony in my words. I just can't believe in your stats. They look unbelievably good to me.

            Best regards,
            Mrsha

            P.S. Just to prove to you again that there is no irony - I remember one of your first posts here(if not the very first one!). It was way back in may, the last round of German Bundesliga. And your pick (1 of those 200 ) - Shalke-Wolfsburg 2 @7.5.... Final result 2-3, your pick has won. Remember that? :wink:

            P.P.S I wanted to write much, much more about these two topics of yours (this and that in 'value' forum)... still, I think this would be enough. Huh.

            Comment


              #7
              -----------To have a bet-hit rate of 28% at average odds of your all bets @5.6 is astonishing, imo. Unbelievably good.

              Unbelievably good. This is just a trend. 200 bets isn't enough to have an opinion whether the system is working. Because the system error on this interval is very high. No one in the world can't have a yield profit on constant basis more then 10%.

              Comment


                #8
                Originally posted by Mrsha
                It is amazing. To have a bet-hit rate of 28% at average odds of your all bets @5.6 is astonishing, imo. Unbelievably good. Particularly considering the fact that you placed only 200 bets in that 'betting-season'. 200 picked, 56 correct, at average odds @5.6... Fantastic. So it must be your bet-selection. I am sure I would never be able to have such a record at those odds. Only 200 picks? Unbelievable bet-selection!
                LOL yes i am amazed myself too hehe i still can't believe how well last period was... waiting to see the Hit% in current season to draw up some conclusions... btw so far this season the Hit@ is 23,5% at average odds of 5,92 but only in 17 Games so this is not safe.

                Originally posted by Mrsha
                So, I would propose you to start a new thread (in 'value' forum, or 'general p.' forum) where you would post every single pick you would go for.
                Mrsha, me and a couple friends who share the same ideas with me about value betting are preparing a web site which will show all the picks for last season in details with stats and analysis plus curent season's bets. It will be easier to publish the picks in that site which can be used as a tool and reference for value betting than to start a thread here... ok ?

                In the meantime i can send to you or to Probettor if you want my excel file which has all the details as long as you share your email addys

                Originally posted by Mrsha
                P.S. Just to prove to you again that there is no irony - I remember one of your first posts here(if not the very first one!). It was way back in may, the last round of German Bundesliga. And your pick (1 of those 200 ) - Shalke-Wolfsburg 2 @7.5.... Final result 2-3, your pick has won. Remember that? :wink:
                Yes of course i remember that ...was my last winning pick in Bundesliga last year and my first post in this forum i think

                Ciao ===== mastoras

                Comment


                  #9
                  Hello!
                  -------------the picks in that site which can be used as a tool and reference for value betting than to start a thread here... ok ?

                  And when the site will be aviable?

                  ---------------In the meantime i can send to you or to Probettor if you want my excel

                  Thank you - good and quality information. No I am busy but 2-3 days later I will send you a couple of questions - ok?

                  Mastoras - are you from Italy?

                  Regards
                  ProBettor

                  Comment


                    #10
                    And when the site will be aviable?
                    I expect for the the web site to be ready in August

                    Mastoras - are you from Italy?
                    No, I am from Greece

                    Cheers

                    Comment


                      #11
                      fixed

                      mastoras in these statistics you gave for previous season were your stakes fixed? if not what formula? kelly's?

                      Comment


                        #12
                        As far as I can remember, his stakes are fixed.

                        Comment


                          #13
                          Re: fixed

                          Originally posted by qrk
                          mastoras in these statistics you gave for previous season were your stakes fixed? if not what formula? kelly's?
                          My stakes are all fixed

                          Comment


                            #14
                            boll

                            Comment


                              #15
                              ocks!!!



                              Your figs dont add up, wheredo you get 56 correct picks and that profit shoe me!!!

                              Comment

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