50 to 50.000 Football Betting System

[JoeB]

If bet365 limit your stakes doing thing, how would you ever get to 50,000?

[rogumu]

Hi,maybe im too tired right now but i wondering this system.So if that goal come not earlier than between 81-90min and odds are about 3.0 and i have bet 9 x 50euros before i get that 50e x 3.0=150e i lost 400euros into that one game??

[wpicks]

If bet365 limit your stakes doing thing, how would you ever get to 50,000?

This may be a problem in some stage. You can split the stake and use more than one bookmakers to place the bet. (But this is not easy)
I call the system 50 to 50000 but this does not mean that you have to go up to 50000.
You can stop in lower numbers of profit (1000,2000,5000,7000 e.t.c) Then start over again. This is what i am doing so far.

[wpicks]

Hi,maybe im too tired right now but i wondering this system.So if that goal come not earlier than between 81-90min and odds are about 3.0 and i have bet 9 x 50euros before i get that 50e x 3.0=150e i lost 400euros into that one game??

Seems like you are too tired. Of course it is not like this.
Read the ebook: http://www.goalmoney.biz/50download.pl

[rogumu]

Seems like you are too tired. Of course it is not like this.
Read the ebook: http://www.goalmoney.biz/50download.pl

yes sorry ,but if you can answer couple of questions anyway...so we put stake in one game into 00-10min and if not goal we put stake into 11-20 but how much i must put if i use 50euros start of this system?

[JoeB]

wpicks' PDF document explains the staking plan very clearly.

[Miccho]

Okay, I first apologize to Wpicks - regardless of whether the system is good or bet, it is a fact that it is available, and I was wrong to accuse him. I didn't see the Pdf and thought he is bulls.hitting, just to get subscriptions, and I was wrong.

Now about the system. Joe already covered very well the mathematical aspects of it. I agree it has little perspective in its quest for "50K units", because it looks inevitable that one will encounter sooner or later a game, which statistically looks very good for goals, but which will end up with 0:0, and which will in turn bring the participant back in the initial stage of his quest.

However, I was wondering whether Wpicks' idea don't have some use as a tactical tool in betting for particular types of games. I will explain what I mean. Joe showed that there are on average 7-8% 0:0 draws in big leagues, which in turn require enormously high strike rate for "over 0.5" bettors, if they don't want to lose all their initial investments. However, this stats, which show 7-8% goal=less draws, include on one hand games like Norwich-Stoke, Inglostadt - Koln, Eibar-Gijon etc, but they also include games like Bayern - Hannover, Barcelona - Rayo etc. It is obvious for everyone how the second type of games differ from the first with regards to goal probabilities. In the second category only, the percentage of 0:0 draws is much smaller than 1%, compared to 7-8% in the overall category.

Of course, the odds on Over 0.5 in the second category of games are ridiculously low, which makes normal betting on over 0.5 in them a pointless exercise. However, I was wondering whether Wpicks system in such kind of games can be a useful betting tool, because with this bets on "goal scored before 10 min" the odds are increased substantially, even for games, which include teams like Barca.

Let's take Bayern Munich home games for example. If we want to find the last 0:0 draw of Bayern at Allianz, we have to go back...70 home games in time, to 14 April 2012, when they drew 0:0 with Mainz. In the next 69 home games of Bayern there was always at least 1 goal scored. So, we can clearly see a stable trend of extremely small likelihood of Bayern home games ending goal-less. However, I believe odds on "goal before 10 min" (and consequently) should be high enough, in order to someone to be able to employ such progressive staking strategy, with extremely small probability of not winning in the end.

Of course, there are practical limitations here, one of which is the practice of Bet365 to block their markets randomly during games. Such blocking of market in a bad moment, might result in missed opportunity to take a bet, when atually a goal is scored in a 10 minute interval, so that the player has to take bigger risks, chasing a 2nd goal.

Nevertheless, it is interesting to research whether such tactics can be applied in games, like Bayern home matches. Well, sooner or later Bet365 would probably limit such player, but still...

[JoeB]

Given that Bet365's 'goal before' market will be algorithmically driven, I don't believe they will be offering you any value for this high probability of over 0.5 goals games.

The odds for over 0.5 goals for a game involving a team like Barca are basically anything from 1.00 to 1.02, and you'll only ever find 1.02 at bookmakers who will limit you after placing such a bet more than once.

For these games, I would guess that the odds for 'next goal before' will be considerably shorter than for typical games, and I imagine usually shorter than wpicks' threshold of 3. Whatever the prices they offer, they will collectively still not offer more value than the straight over 0.5 goals single bet.

But I guess the only way to find out is to check a live game.

Barcelona play Sevilla this Sunday in the Copa del Rey final. Over 0.5 is priced at 1.00 to 1.02 so here is your game to check.

Bet365 have 1.012

They have 3.40 for first goal in 0 to 10 mins

This compares to Crystal Palace v Man Utd

Over 0.5 = 1.083
First goal in 0 to 10 mins = 5.00

But as you say, if Bet365 were making an error with this market, it wouldn't take them long to figure it out if people were exploiting it. They would then close the accounts of those exploiting it and get rid of the error.

[Miccho]

Given that Bet365's 'goal before' market will be algorithmically driven, I don't believe they will be offering you any value for this high probability of over 0.5 goals games.
.

You are most probably right, but I'd still be curious to check. I have some memories that I have seen such bets in Barca game (at 0:0) at odds above 2.0. And if the bet is precisely "Barca" to score the goal (not any of the two teams), then I think definitely we could get something above 2.0.

The bottom line is that at least theoretically such games could provide some justification for the "progressive staking"- practice which has been rejected centuries ago. When goal in such games is with probability, higher than 99.5%, and when one has good betting budget, even doubling the lost stake might have some sense.

if Bet365 were making an error with this market, it wouldn't take them long to figure it out if people were exploiting it. They would then close the accounts of those exploiting it and get rid of the error.

Oh, that's for sure. Even if there is such a loophole, it can be exploited only short term. Eventually, long term betting profit is always reduced to the ability to extract value from simple "money line", Asian Handicap, goal-line and asian goal line markets. The only markets which Asian bookies - who are the only bookies, who rarely limit - offer to players.

[wpicks]

Okay, I first apologize to Wpicks - regardless of whether the system is good or bet, it is a fact that it is available, and I was wrong to accuse him. I didn't see the Pdf and thought he is bulls.hitting, just to get subscriptions, and I was wrong.

It is ok from my side Miccho.

However, I was wondering whether Wpicks' idea don't have some use as a tactical tool in betting for particular types of games. ...

This is exactly what I have in mind when I create such systems with my tool. Saying in my ebook to be selective when you choose the games to bet on, I mean that you must find particular types of games that have good chance to not fail. So if you manage to apply the system for some time without failure selecting such games you will manage to profit.

Of course, the odds on Over 0.5 in the second category of games are ridiculously low, which makes normal betting on over 0.5 in them a pointless exercise. However, I was wondering whether Wpicks system in such kind of games can be a useful betting tool, because with this bets on "goal scored before 10 min" the odds are increased substantially, even for games, which include teams like Barca.

The odds for an over 0.5 goals, for the games I usually select for the system, are from 1.16 to 1.25 that are ridiculously low as you mentioned.

*** I am correcting this . I wrote it by mistake. Obviously i wanted to write 1.016 to 1.025

Let's take Bayern Munich home games for example. ***8230;***8230;. However, I believe odds on "goal before 10 min" (and consequently) should be high enough, in order to someone to be able to employ such progressive staking strategy, with extremely small probability of not winning in the end.

This is a very good case of applying the specific system. Many other ideas could be turned to systems with my tool.

i.e. There are many good tipsters in this forum. If I decide to follow one of them, I could answer to the money management question by creating a specific system for this tipster. Assume that a tipster is giving picks at odds near 2.0 and wins one tip for every 3-4 tips that gives. I could create a system asking for one winner for every 4 tips that gives or for every 5 to be safer. This could be a good winning scenario. As for the profit target could be a low target (to double the bank for example).

Of course, there are practical limitations here, one of which is the practice of Bet365 to block their markets randomly during games. Such blocking of market in a bad moment, might result in missed opportunity to take a bet, when atually a goal is scored in a 10 minute interval, so that the player has to take bigger risks, chasing a 2nd goal.

This is a real problem. All the bookies doing that all the time. Among with many other things ***8211; I could write another e-book for that. This is an unethical practice in my opinion and all we get involved with betting must take action against this practice. With continuous complaints when we see it, refer them to the authorities, whatever we can think that can stop this e.t.c. Bookies are good to take our money but are not good when they have to ***8220;play fair***8221;. This behavior must not be acceptable by anyone.

[JoeB]

The odds for an over 0.5 goals, for the games I usually select for the system, are from 1.16 to 1.25 that are ridiculously low as you mentioned.

What matches would these be?

For example, the French 2nd division is possibly the lowest scoring division in Europe.

I've searched this season's matches for the one with the highest >2.5 goals odds, which was Laval v Evian Thonon Gaillard on 15th April. My highest recorded odds were 3.1, Marathobet actually had 3.22 at kickoff.

The highest odds for >0.5 were 1.17, with average 1.13.

Typically, >0.5 odds are about 1.05

[wpicks]

What matches would these be? ... Typically, >0.5 odds are about 1.05

As i wrote before, most of the matches that i estimate an over 2.5 goals result are offered lower to 1,05 in a 70% + percentage. The 1,05 is the highest you can get.

Leagues like the French2 that you mention are from the leagues that i do not bet to.

Check the odds for over 0.5 goals in Netherlands2 that is offered for over 2.5 goals.

Have also in mind that the 1,05 may looks stable some hours before the beginning of a game but many times this may be reduced just before the begin (5-10 minutes) that is the most usual time to place the bets.

Here comes another trick from the bookies. You may see 1.05, but when you click to bet, automatically reduced like have been programmed this way and goes to bet slip as 1.04 or less. Lately this one becomes more and more often.

* i will quote here some matches as i am betting.

[Miccho]

The odds for an over 0.5 goals, for the games I usually select for the system, are from 1.16 to 1.25 that are ridiculously low as you mentioned.

As Joe said, this is not possible. The highest odds on over 0.5 I have ever seen are 1.14. And you will definitely not want to bet on these games with your system, cause such games have about 33% probability of ending 0:0.

[wpicks]

As Joe said, this is not possible. The highest odds on over 0.5 I have ever seen are 1.14. And you will definitely not want to bet on these games with your system, cause such games have about 33% probability of ending 0:0.

I corrected it above. I wrote that by mistake. Obviously i wanted to write 1.016 to 1.025
I am sorry for that.

[wpicks]

What matches would these be?

For example, the French 2nd division is possibly the lowest scoring division in Europe.

I've searched this season's matches for the one with the highest >2.5 goals odds, which was Laval v Evian Thonon Gaillard on 15th April. My highest recorded odds were 3.1, Marathobet actually had 3.22 at kickoff.

The highest odds for >0.5 were 1.17, with average 1.13.

Typically, >0.5 odds are about 1.05

JoeB I wrote that by mistake. I wanted to write 1.016 to 1.025. I am sory for confusing you.