50 to 50.000 Football Betting System

[wpicks]

No they don't. All systems, progressive or otherwise, advise to start with a bankroll. The only question is whether you lose your whole bankroll.

This system has a different approach. You start with 10, 30, 50, 100 e.t.c trying to multiply, having a ready money management plan that do not ask you even a cent more than the money you start and you have decide to risk.

As I've already said, if you can find such games every day, then you don't need this betting system. You can simply bet singles to level stakes because you have positive expectation and suffer much less risk of losing most or all of your bankroll.

There is no way to cover the 90' minutes play of a football game (splitted in ten minutes periods to get @3.0 + odds) other than i describe in my system. And yes. You can find such games easily every day.

I don't need to, I already know what will happen.

It will take you just 5 minutes per day to select and write down in a piece of paper, 2-3 games that you estimate that will have at least one goal. Then at the end of the day you will have just to check if the games you selected have a goal or not. With the knowlege and the forecasting skills you may have, this would be an easy task for you. Do it, and tell me if the system works for you or if fails and in what point. Sometimes things in practice are different than in theory.

When you've turned $50 in $50,000 from this system, come and tell me. You know where to find me (Football-Data).

Why do i have to do that? when you can test the system yourself. Besides as i told you before, i have make 1.000, 5.000, 7.000 e.t.c several times with this system. The 50.000 target in title is just to show the strength and stability of the system. You can go up to that point but you also can stop earlier deciding to not risk more, and keep the profits you made.

However, just to repeat again, I do still like the novelty of your idea, and commend you for the effort you have put into it,

Thank you for recognizing this.

[JoeB]

It will take you just 5 minutes per day to select and write down in a piece of paper, 2-3 games that you estimate that will have at least one goal. Then at the end of the day you will have just to check if the games you selected have a goal or not. With the knowlege and the forecasting skills you may have, this would be an easy task for you. Do it, and tell me if the system works for you or if fails and in what point. Sometimes things in practice are different than in theory.

As I said, I don't need to spend hundreds of hours of my time finding out what a model will tell me. Additionally, if i do as you suggest then all I learn is one possible outcome. As everyone should know by now, betting is full of chance. To eliminate the influence of good and bad luck, it's much better to run a model to compare thousands of possible outcomes, to see what sort of probabilities of profit taking I've dealing with.

So just for you, I've modeled it for you.

I've run a 10,000 run Monte-Carlo simulation with the following assumptions;

1) I'm starting with a 100 unit bankroll and then halving it. I only ever use half of my full bankroll to protect against the risk of having a match with no goals. This basically has the same effect as you suggesting one skips the 8th and 9th bets. So for example, if I lost my first match, I would then have 50 units left and I would use 25 of those for the second match.

2) I'm assuming on average that every match I win, I increase my playing bank (not full bank) by 5%. I realise that in your system with your advised stakes you will actually make a bit more profit if there is a goal later in the match. But for simplicity, I've set it at 5% no matter when the goal is scored. This way, I can look at the whole match in one go. It seems to be roughly what your system is making on average per winning match. So if I win in the first match, my playing bank increases to 52.5 and my full bank to 102.5. My second match stake is then 51.25 and so on.

3) I've tested the performance of the system for different strike rate, ranging from 100% (which I now see is what you 50 to 50,000 is based on) down to 90%. BY strike rate, I mean matches with goals scored.

4) For a strike rate of 100%, your finishing bankroll is 47,970, so it would appear I'm doing a pretty good job of replicating your system here with my model.

Based on the simulation, here are the probabilities of finishing 250 matches with a bank less than what you started with.

Strike %<100
100% 0.00%
99% 0.15%
98% 6.62%
97% 33.74%
96% 66.73%
95% 87.68%
94% 96.64%
93% 99.28%
92% 99.89%
91% 99.96%
90% 100.00%

Given that about 92.5% of matches finish with a goal (depending on the league), you are going to struggle to make any profit here. It's not until you get to a strike rate of 97% or 98% that you have a pretty good chance of doing well.

I've also run a another simulation for a straight single bet on over 0.5 goals, using a stake size of 50%.

For a strike rate of 100% maximum bankroll is 476,651, so about 10 times the size of yours.

For a strike rate of 95%, the probability of finishing with less than you started with betting singles was 37%, compared to 88% for your system. The average finishing bankroll for singles betting was 2,729, compared to just 74 for for your system.

Essentially, this backs up what I have been saying. If you have a positive expectation, you don't need to be bothering with convoluted loss chasing system that simply introduce more risk. Furthermore, in the process of playing the system, you've probably reduced your edge as well. By betting in a market with a 120% overround (which is roughly the size of the overround for this goals before market), you are getting far worse value in your odds than simply betting over 0.5 goals. In your system, your average increase in bank per winning match is 5%, but in my singles betting it is over 8%. To get your average winning percentage increase up to 8%, you need to be getting odds of 4, not 3, for every bet you place.

You can even see this by comparing the odds for you first pre-match bet (time of first goal 0-10 mins) and their market for goal in first 10 minutes. These are exactly the same propositions, but for WBA v Liverpool, for example, the first is priced at 4.00 whilst the second is priced at 5.00. OK, so you could bet your first bet at 5.00, but once the game goes inplay, you'll be betting in a market where the odds are inferior in terms of value. That's why bet365 offer such markets.

All in all, I see this as a huge amount of work (sitting and watching lots of games or their livescores) for no extra benefit.

I'll repeat it one more time. If you don't have an advantage, this method will fail, like all other methods. And if you do have an advantage, you don't need this method, just bet over 0.5 goals as singles using Kelly staking.

[Miccho]

With this system you can turn 50 units to 50,000 units, betting on football games and asking for just one goal to be scored, at any time of the 90' minutes play.

The System requires only one (1) winning bet for every nine (9) bets you place, giving a great chance to profit from betting.

Aha, so, a bet of over 0.5 goals is priced on average at 1.050. And you will win 50,000 unit out of 50 betting 1.050 and winning just 1 out of 9 bets?!

Nice laugh, sir...What else can you promise us - becoming a millionaire over 3 days or building body like Cristiano Ronaldo's withing one day?!

Joe, are u seriously wasting time with this person?!

[lavovi]

@ wpicks
Excellent suggestion, but you are selling it on the wrong place. You should sell this to the 3rd world governments to help them resolve solvency issues. Then your system will give best contribution like the world peace, cancer cure...

FYI I have contacts in Bosnia so I will do your part there

[wpicks]

Aha, so, a bet of over 0.5 goals is priced on average at 1.050. And you will win 50,000 unit out of 50 betting 1.050 and winning just 1 out of 9 bets?!

Nice laugh, sir...What else can you promise us - becoming a millionaire over 3 days or building body like Cristiano Ronaldo's withing one day?!

Joe, are u seriously wasting time with this person?!

I am not promising anything. It would be good to have something to say and not post just for posting.

[wpicks]

@ wpicks
Excellent suggestion, but you are selling it on the wrong place. You should sell this to the 3rd world governments to help them resolve solvency issues. Then your system will give best contribution like the world peace, cancer cure...

FYI I have contacts in Bosnia so I will do your part there

I am not selling anything.
Posting the way you do it is easy for everyone. But this way you fu** the forum.

[wpicks]

So just for you, I've modeled it for you.

I've run a 10,000 run Monte-Carlo simulation with the following assumptions;

1) I'm starting with a 100 unit bankroll and then halving it. I only ever use half of my full bankroll to protect against the risk of having a match with no goals.......

Joeb thank you for taking the time to do this analysis. Allow me to have my opinion. In any case I much appreciate the way you replied all these days.

[Miccho]

I am not promising anything. It would be good to have something to say and not post just for posting.

How about for a start explain to me how it is mathematically possible to win 1 out of 9 bets, when you bet on 1.050, and increase your bank from 50 to 50,000?! Or wait, you won't want to tell us, because you will first want people "to subscribe for your system" - am i right?!

Then, what the hell are you doing in this forum and this section?! If you are to share with us your system, then go ahead and do it, but if you are to bulls.hit and hope to hook up somebody to pay for your "system", then get the hell out of here now! And one advise - get a job.

[wpicks]

How about for a start explain to me how it is mathematically possible to win 1 out of 9 bets, when you bet on 1.050, and increase your bank from 50 to 50,000?! Or wait, you won't want to tell us, because you will first want people "to subscribe for your system" - am i right?!

Then, what the hell are you doing in this forum and this section?! If you are to share with us your system, then go ahead and do it, but if you are to bulls.hit and hope to hook up somebody to pay for your "system", then get the hell out of here now! And one advise - get a job.

a) Read my ebook first
b) I shared the system free and i am not selling anything
c) You are very "new" to this forum to tell me "get the hell out of here now" ...

[Miccho]

a) Read my ebook first
b) I shared the system free and i am not selling anything

Then, just post it here and not on some page, where you request other people's emails. I think the rules clearly say this section is for DISCUSSSION of system/strategies, not for sending us to some some site and requiring some registrations, and other crap. We cannot discuss something that we do NOT see.

I repeat - either share your system here (no matter how stupid it is), or just GTFO!

[wpicks]

Then, just post it here and not on some page, where you request other people's emails. I think the rules clearly say this section is for DISCUSSSION of system/strategies, not for sending us to some some site and requiring some registrations, and other crap. We cannot discuss something that we do NOT see.

I repeat - either share your system here (no matter how stupid it is), or just GTFO!

I you had read the thread you already had to see the direct link to the ebook without requiring any registration as you say.
I already posted it above but i am doing it again just for you:
http://www.goalmoney.biz/50download.pl

[george]

Hello to everyone,

I read the whole discussion and the pdf and I want to ask a simple question to wpicks. What's the difference between the suggesting system and a simpler system in betting just on over 0,5 goals in every match?

Why to give so much effort and waste so so so much time every day for about 90 days to gain the so-called 50000 units?

Good job JoeB, this is exactly what I was thinking when reading the pdf.

Anyway, good luck wpicks

cheers

[Giantlife]

Then, just post it here and not on some page, where you request other people's emails. I think the rules clearly say this section is for DISCUSSSION of system/strategies, not for sending us to some some site and requiring some registrations, and other crap. We cannot discuss something that we do NOT see.

I repeat - either share your system here (no matter how stupid it is), or just GTFO!

Miccho, I never trust or use systems like these as JoeB logically explained everything above, but I think you are just being a bit of an a hole responding to a thread like this without reading anything with your prejudice.

The remaining members of betting advice know what the **** goes around in these forums so there is no need for this much aggression.

Having said all above, I very much like your picks and analysis on games but take it a bit easy hey, there is no need to be that argumentative and break hearts...

[JoeB]

Wpicks, if you've kept a record of you bets using this system, that would be very instructive to see just what sort of odds you are getting for each 10 minute group. Do you have such a file?

Additionally, I'm aware that you described occasions where you could win 2 bets in a match, which my model can't consider so arguably your system will perform better than I've implied, although I still stand by my general conclusions.

[wpicks]

Wpicks, if you've kept a record of you bets using this system, that would be very instructive to see just what sort of odds you are getting for each 10 minute group. Do you have such a file?

JoeB, i do not have such record mainly because i use the system not only for football but for other Sports too. (i.e asking for a break from the fav in a tennis game)

The odds i usually take are over @3.40. The odds are different from league to league and from game to game. The @3.0 i mention in my system is the minimum you can take in a football game and they offer it in games that they wait many goals or in specific leagues like Netherlands 2.
For some leagues like France2, Italy2, Portugal 1-2 e.t.c odds are near @4.0, just before the start of the next 10 minute period. If 1-2 minutes from the period pass, they odds becoming over than 4.5 and growing.

The first period 1-10 has the highest odds between 4.0 and 5.5
The last period 81-90 has the lowest odds between 2.8 and 3.1 Usually in the last period you get 3.0 in 81-82 minute. [In spare times that i decide to bet here, what i usually do is just to cover the loss in the low odds of i.e 2.8 - 2.9 (total loss)/(odds-1) ]. And after 2-3 minutes to bet the remaining stake in odds over 3.0 for profit.

Additionally, I'm aware that you described occasions where you could win 2 bets in a match, which my model can't consider so arguably your system will perform better than I've implied, although I still stand by my general conclusions.

This can not be a rule. It may happen sometimes but there is no way to count it. It is a matter of luck.
I faced this problem when they set limit to my stakes and had to split it in 2-3 different bookmakers. (not an easy task believe me). I saw that other bookies was giving it strictly between x-y minutes and not before y minute as i was betting so far. And the most strange was that they were giving the same or less odds.