50 to 50.000 Football Betting System

[wpicks]

With this system you can turn 50 units to 50,000 units, betting on football games and asking for just one goal to be scored, at any time of the 90' minutes play.

The System requires only one (1) winning bet for every nine (9) bets you place, giving a great chance to profit from betting.

The money management and the staking plan of the system is optimal and also the requirement to have just one goal in a football game seems quite easy to happen.

The system is offered for free in this url: http://goalmoney.biz/download.html

It has no meaning to analyze it further, as long as anyone can download it and check it himself.

[JoeB]

Did you make 50,000?

[Ville]

I have a system for turtle racing. Always betting on the 2nd turtle from the left, if it fails I increase my stake with 20% and so on until it wins. Absolutely guaranteed.

[wpicks]

I am betting for living with betting systems like the one above. I am grouping similiar events and making the proper system to bet on. I am doing this for more than 6 years.
For me this is the only way to make money from betting.

The money that you are risking are predifined upon the creation of the system. You do not start with 50 and increase 20% and 20% again and so on ... until to not have money to bet more.

In this system and other similiar systems that i create the starting money is the maximum loss in case of failure.

[JoeB]

Did you make 50,000 with this system?

[wpicks]

Did you make 50,000 with this system?

No i did not make 50,000 if you are curious about that. Mainly because of the staking limitations that set the bookies.

But i made 5,000 , 7,000, 10,000 several times...

I made this system aiming to help. I spend time to write down what is working for me. i do not force anybody to follow it. It's up to you or anybody else to decide if will use it or delete it.

[JoeB]

I congratulate you on your effort to write the PDF, but the methodology is completely flawed.

It's a nice idea, but in practice it has almost no probability of working. This is why.

Every time you have a match that has one goal in it, you win a little bit and your bank increases. You then reset your stakes using the same percentages, meaning your next set of stakes will be a bit larger. In this way, after successive wins your bankroll will grow exponentially, and that is how you can get from 50 to 50,000 in just 743 bets. Typically this should take about 250 matches assuming on average you need 3 bets per game (average 1st goal time is about 30 minutes).

But here is the problem. When you get a game with no goal, you basically lose almost all of the existing bankroll you are playing with, so in effect you have to start all over again.

Of course, if you could be sure that every game you picked would have a goal, then no problem. But you can't be sure of that. I've looked at 5 seasons of English football matches (typically around 2.5 goals per game or a bit more) and 7.5% finished 0-0.

So, assuming the probability of no goals in a match is on average 7.5%, what is the probability of me getting through 250 matches without a single goalless draw?

The answer is 3.43 billionths.

In other words I have a better chance of winning the UK national lottery (even in its harder new format) than i do of successfully getting to the end of this sequence with 100x my initial bank.

OK, so you say I have to work harder at avoiding those 0-0 draws to reduce the probability of one coming along.

Let's look at it this way. How low do I have to get the probability of suffering a 0-0 on average before I can say I have a 50-50 chance of getting to the end of my sequence with a 100x bankroll?

The answer is 0.28%

Do you honestly think that anyone is good enough to be able to find a match and say there is just a 0.28% probability of there being no goals?

And if such a person could do this, do you honestly think they would need to waste their time with this system? If they were this good at prediction, then they would already be millionaires, because they would have gone to Betfair and simply laid these 0-0 bets and cleaned up. Or they could simply go to any bookmaker and bet on over 0.5 goals knowing that they would be getting amazing odds, since typically you can get about 1.05 for over 0.5 goals, but he would know that the fair odds were 1.003.

So anyway, good effort, but it doesn't work.

[wpicks]

JOEB, I appreciate your comments, but I totally disagree with you. The system works in practice and there are many things you can do at any given time to protect your profits.

Betting involves risk. Betting systems aiming to minimize that risk and create an advantage for the gambler. What a better advantage of asking just for 1 winner for every 9 bets and what better advantage of asking for just one goal to be scored in a football game when the 90% plus of the games end with one or more goals been scored.

Of course the probability to select a football game that will end goalless exists. You can take measures to minimize the probability to have such game in your selections. But also in case that will happen, depends on you if you will continue up to end or if you will stop earlier to protect your profits.

Assume that you have manage to increase your Bank from 50 to 500. And you are betting on a football game that has no goal up to 70’ minute. At this point it’s up to you to decide if you will take the risk to continue or if you will stop to protect your profits. The last 2 bets are the bigger ones. Both of them are the 60% of your Bank. So if you stop in that point you keep the 300 of your 500 bank. You are still on profit and you can start over from that point.

Selecting a football game that will end goalless is not something that will happen every day and as I mentioned above you have ways to protect yourself.

The big number of bets (743) that required for this system to complete seems to scare you. But the target is big too and also we have set an 11% winning ratio. (1-9)

Would you feel more comfortable if I was telling you to ask for ONE goal in the second half of a football game, trying to double your money in 12 bets?

The starting staking plan in this case, starting with 50 units trying double them to 100 in 12 bets, @3, asking for 1 winner for every 5 bets (1-5) would be:

1.5, 3.8, 7.4, 12.8, 21.1

This follows the same logic as the 50 to 50.000 betting system.

I advice everybody to download the system and read it himself to have it's own opinion about it. And use it only if he thinks that can profit from it.

Finally i am willing to give free access for some days to the Betting Systems Creator to try it and create your own systems. Just ask it (goalmoney.biz).

[JoeB]

I can dream up lots systems like this.

Here's one. Find matches with odds of 1.01. After each win, reinvest your original stake plus profit on the next bet. After 695 wins you will have turned 50 units into 50,000.

For every bet, make sure you can lay it at Betfair if after 60 minutes you aren't winning by more than 2 goals. This will protect half your bank.

Yes, all of these types of systems involve risk. That is the business of gambling. The keep point is whether you have found positive expectancy.

If you have found positive expectancy then you don't need systems like this. And if you haven't found positive expectancy then you should understand that there is no system that can return a profit over the long term.

Your type of system is a type of progressive staking system. All it does is change the balance of risks. The trade off for lots of very likely incremental increases in your bankroll is an increased risk of ruin at some point.

Yes, there are things like you've describes to turn full ruin into half ruin, but the basic problem is still the same.

I can only say this again. If you are good enough to find more goal scoring games than the bookmaker thinks is possible then all you need to do is bet singles using a Kelly staking plan.

Of course others are free to try this, and kindly you have made this available for free. I would have been very disappointed if I'd paid for this.

[wpicks]

I can dream up lots systems like this.
Here's one. Find matches with odds of 1.01. After each win, reinvest your original stake plus profit on the next bet. After 695 wins you will have turned 50 units into 50,000.

If you do not understand then difference and reply this way I am not willing to try make you change your mind ...

The system is here: http://goalmoney.biz/download.html
Everybody in this forum is enough clever to read it and decide if will use it or not.

With this system i tried to share with everybody the way I am making money from betting.
If you think different, just don't use it. Is that simple.

[Ville]

The problem is that you treat people on this board as idiots. Well, most of them are but few are not. If you are so generous put a direct download link and I may have a look. Otherwise I won't give you my email and getting spammed the next 5 years with PAID moneymaker bullcrap. You know what I'm talking about.

[wpicks]

The problem is that you treat people on this board as idiots. Well, most of them are but few are not. If you are so generous put a direct download link and I may have a look. Otherwise I won't give you my email and getting spammed the next 5 years with PAID moneymaker bullcrap. You know what I'm talking about.

This was not my purpose.
Direct Download Link: http://www.goalmoney.biz/50download.pl

[JoeB]

If you do not understand then difference and reply this way I am not willing to try make you change your mind ...

I understand perfectly how the system works. Evidently it is you that does not understand how progressive staking, or loss chasing as it should be called, changes the balance of risks.

No betting system can create something from nothing, yours included.

If you decide to chase previous losses, and that is what you staking plan does, then you increase the risk of ruin, or semi-ruin, or large loss, or however you want to call it, depending on what stop loss strategies you put in place. Progressive staking of any kind will always introduce a risk of losing large percentages of your bank roll.

You talk about choosing not to bet the last two stakes if your bankroll is already up to 500. If you decide to do this, you will still be losing almost 40% of your bankroll. And don't forget, this then changes the probability for you having a losing match, since you come out of the game at 70 minutes rather than at full time. This increases the probability of losing from roughly 7.5% to 12.5%.

Then, the probability of getting two losing matches in a row at least once during a sequence of 250 matches is 97%, and for 3 in a row, it's 35%

It is up to the player whether they want to play with risk like this, but these players should be clear: your staking plans is NOT creating positive expectation from negative expectation. That is impossible.

If you don't have positive expectation, it is simply a matter of time before you end up losing all the money you started with, unless you are lucky enough to stop using the system before that happens.

I do actually quite like your idea for it's novelty aspect, but I think the chances of ever actually being able to turn 50 in to 50,000 is very, very slim. You said you haven't done it yet, so that says it all really.

For the record, I've not received any spam. The PDF is completely legitimate, not a scam, although obviously an attempt to refer customers to bet365. So if you do actually believe all your customers will make money from following your system by betting with bet365 then you are not going to earn any affiliate revenue from this at all since bet365 rollover negative monthly commissions.

[wpicks]

JOEB,

Some things you ignore in your analysis.

a) What you risk with this system is the money you Start. Even one cent more.
This is something you ignore in your analysis. All the progressive staking systems around asking to put more money again and again if you lose. This system does does not.
What you will decide to invest in this system this will be the the maximum loss in case of failure. Is this an advandage or not?

b) You are doing your analysis possibly having in mind that you will select to bet in any game comes in front of you. The fact is, that if you select to bet on teams that proven give over 2.5 goals results or over 3.5 goals results, the probability of failure decreases dramatically. And if you study the stats that are available in many sites, you can find such games every day.

Furthermore, to have one of your selections to end goalless will be not something that will happen every day, if happen. In the meantime you will have manage to make profit and it's up to you to decide if you will continue betting or stop. (if think that a game goes to end goaless you can decide to stop in 70' minute and not place the last 2 bets. This way you will keep the 60% of your BANK and still be on profit)

c) Why you do not take a piece of paper and try to apply the system without money to see if works for you? This will be the best way to get real provement.

d) Finally betting involves risk. Systems is just a way to try to reduce the risk and help you make profit. There is no betting without risk and there is no profit without risk.

As for the bet365 links, it is not something i care first. I really believe that my system can make profit and this is why i made the donation page for the people that will find it useful and profit from it. I prefer to have as many as possible winners from my system and to not take anything from bet365.

[JoeB]

a) All the progressive staking systems around asking to put more money again and again if you lose.

No they don't. All systems, progressive or otherwise, advise to start with a bankroll. The only question is whether you lose your whole bankroll.

b) You are doing your analysis possibly having in mind that you will select to bet in any game comes in front of you. The fact is, that if you select to bet on teams that proven give over 2.5 goals results or over 3.5 goals results, the probability of failure decreases dramatically. And if you study the stats that are available in many sites, you can find such games every day.

As I've already said, if you can find such games every day, then you don't need this betting system. You can simply bet singles to level stakes because you have positive expectation and suffer much less risk of losing most or all of your bankroll.

c) Why you do not take a piece of paper and try to apply the system without money to see if works for you?

I don't need to, I already know what will happen. If I was really motivated I could simply run a Monte Carlo analysis to determine the various probabilities of difference outcomes, but for me there is little point in that. If I have negative expectation I will ultimately end up losing my bankroll in the end. And if I have positive expectation, I don't need to chase losses. As you say in your document, why be greedy. I don't need to recover the losses if I know I will make more profits than losses. And if I can't maker more profits than losses, this system will fail in the end, like all the others will.

d) Finally betting involves risk. Systems is just a way to try to reduce the risk and help you make profit. There is no betting without risk and there is no profit without risk.

No system can reduce the risk to make more profit, only greater forecasting skill can do that. If you want more profit, you have to increase the risks to get it. Progressive staking is a means of grabbing back more short term profits by chasing the losses you made earlier. The trade-off is increase risk of much larger losses compared to systems that just bet the same stake for every bet. There is no such think as a free lunch in gambling.

When you've turned $50 in $50,000 from this system, come and tell me. You know where to find me (Football-Data). I predict I'll be waiting a long time. However, just to repeat again, I do still like the novelty of your idea, and commend you for the effort you have put into it, even if it is a progressive stake plan, which I normally object to vehemently.