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Sportsbetting and variance

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    Sportsbetting and variance

    In the pokerworld, most experienced players know what to expect regarding variance, but coming into the world of sportsbetting, information on variance seems rare and even a lot of good punters seem very fishy to me when it comes to variance.

    Are there some calculators or graph makers for sportsbettingvariance?

    For example if I have an ROI of 5% over 1000 games with average odds of 2, can I expect this to be trustworthy, or do I need a much bigger sample for that?

    Any info on this would be nice!

    Thx, Joeppiej

    #2
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Binomial_distribution

    This might be useful. There is formula in Excel.

    ROI of 105% over 1000 trials is fine, but is too close to the break even point of 103% (have in mind bookies share = juice=vig)

    Comment


      #3
      At poker when your chances are 50% (odds of 2.00) you can loose 50 times in row or even more, ofcourse this kind of stuff is rare, but just a simple example of the variance.

      Same thing is on betting. You have your chances and variance will happen. BUT on poker you have a very good idea of your chances and odds. But on betting there can be some info you dont know, some trend you dont know and then your chances are wrongly calculated...

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