As everyone knows to succed in long-term betting you have to have valuebetting greater than 1. Counting this amount we use history of our picks. More precisly: the average odd and our hit ratio. And here I have problem: which odd should I take? (all or only this good).

Does this Value present average odd as if all picks would be proper? examples:

Does it work only with flatbetting?

stake odd win

10 5 + 50

10 5 + 50

10 2,5 - 0

10 2,5 - 0

10 5 - 0

---------------

50 5 40% 100

value= hit ratio * av. ood

value= 0,4*5

value= 2,0

100-50=50 profit

"Does this Value present average odd as if all picks would be proper?"

picks x 5.each one for 10. we pay 50.

picks x 5.each one correct. average odd=value. av.odd =2,00 in this case.

we earn odd*stake*number of bets = 2,00 * 10 * 5 = 100

100-50=50 profit - the same, it works

But let's look what happens if I will change a little the stakes and odds.

stake odd win

6 5 + 30

5 5 - 0

5 2,5 - 0

9 2,5 - 0

10 5 - 0

---------------

35 4 20% 30

value= hit ratio * av. ood

value= 0,2*4

calue= 0,8

30-35=-5 profit

Does this Value present average odd as if all picks would be proper?

picks x 5.we pay 35

picks x 5.each one correct. average odd=value. av.odd = 0,8. we earn 0,8* 7 * 5 = 28

28-35=-7 - we lost 5. where is a mistake? can't we take 7 to the second example as average stake? can it work only with fixed stakes?

and another example... fixed stakes, light odds modification

stake odd win

10 5 + 50

10 5 + 50

10 2,5 - 0

10 2,5 - 0

10 5 - 0

---------------

50 4 40% 100

value= hit ratio * av. ood

value= 0,4*4

value= 1,6

100-50=50 profit

"Does this Value present average odd as if all picks would be proper?"

picks x 5.each one for 10. we pay 50.

picks x 5.each one correct. average odd=value. av.odd =1,60 in this case.

we earn odd*stake*number of bets = 1,60 * 10 * 5 = 80

80-50=30 profit - not the same , it looks that we have to take only correct odds. In this case value would be equal 5*0,4=2 and 10*5*2= 100 -->ok

odds without changes. stakes modifications. While counting odd's average I take only that correct.

stake odd win

5 5 + 25

10 5 + 50

10 2,5 - 0

20 2,5 - 0

20 5 - 0

---------------

65 5 40% 75

value= hit ratio * av. ood

value= 0,4*5

value= 2,00

75-65=10 profit

"Does this Value present average odd as if all picks would be proper?"

picks x 5. we pay 65.

picks x 5.each one correct. average odd=value. av.odd =2,00 in this case.

we earn odd*stake*number of bets = 2,00 * 13 * 5 = 130

130-65= never +10

50-65=-15

Where Am I wrong?

"Does this Value present average odd as if all picks would be proper?"

If it does, which odd should I take?

does it work only with fixed odds?

PLease help

Does this Value present average odd as if all picks would be proper? examples:

Does it work only with flatbetting?

stake odd win

10 5 + 50

10 5 + 50

10 2,5 - 0

10 2,5 - 0

10 5 - 0

---------------

50 5 40% 100

value= hit ratio * av. ood

value= 0,4*5

value= 2,0

100-50=50 profit

"Does this Value present average odd as if all picks would be proper?"

picks x 5.each one for 10. we pay 50.

picks x 5.each one correct. average odd=value. av.odd =2,00 in this case.

we earn odd*stake*number of bets = 2,00 * 10 * 5 = 100

100-50=50 profit - the same, it works

But let's look what happens if I will change a little the stakes and odds.

stake odd win

6 5 + 30

5 5 - 0

5 2,5 - 0

9 2,5 - 0

10 5 - 0

---------------

35 4 20% 30

value= hit ratio * av. ood

value= 0,2*4

calue= 0,8

30-35=-5 profit

Does this Value present average odd as if all picks would be proper?

picks x 5.we pay 35

picks x 5.each one correct. average odd=value. av.odd = 0,8. we earn 0,8* 7 * 5 = 28

28-35=-7 - we lost 5. where is a mistake? can't we take 7 to the second example as average stake? can it work only with fixed stakes?

and another example... fixed stakes, light odds modification

stake odd win

10 5 + 50

10 5 + 50

10 2,5 - 0

10 2,5 - 0

10 5 - 0

---------------

50 4 40% 100

value= hit ratio * av. ood

value= 0,4*4

value= 1,6

100-50=50 profit

"Does this Value present average odd as if all picks would be proper?"

picks x 5.each one for 10. we pay 50.

picks x 5.each one correct. average odd=value. av.odd =1,60 in this case.

we earn odd*stake*number of bets = 1,60 * 10 * 5 = 80

80-50=30 profit - not the same , it looks that we have to take only correct odds. In this case value would be equal 5*0,4=2 and 10*5*2= 100 -->ok

odds without changes. stakes modifications. While counting odd's average I take only that correct.

stake odd win

5 5 + 25

10 5 + 50

10 2,5 - 0

20 2,5 - 0

20 5 - 0

---------------

65 5 40% 75

value= hit ratio * av. ood

value= 0,4*5

value= 2,00

75-65=10 profit

"Does this Value present average odd as if all picks would be proper?"

picks x 5. we pay 65.

picks x 5.each one correct. average odd=value. av.odd =2,00 in this case.

we earn odd*stake*number of bets = 2,00 * 13 * 5 = 130

130-65= never +10

50-65=-15

Where Am I wrong?

"Does this Value present average odd as if all picks would be proper?"

If it does, which odd should I take?

does it work only with fixed odds?

PLease help

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