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Some questions concerning counting a Value

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    Some questions concerning counting a Value

    As everyone knows to succed in long-term betting you have to have valuebetting greater than 1. Counting this amount we use history of our picks. More precisly: the average odd and our hit ratio. And here I have problem: which odd should I take? (all or only this good).
    Does this Value present average odd as if all picks would be proper? examples:
    Does it work only with flatbetting?

    stake odd win
    10 5 + 50
    10 5 + 50
    10 2,5 - 0
    10 2,5 - 0
    10 5 - 0
    ---------------
    50 5 40% 100

    value= hit ratio * av. ood
    value= 0,4*5
    value= 2,0

    100-50=50 profit

    "Does this Value present average odd as if all picks would be proper?"
    picks x 5.each one for 10. we pay 50.
    picks x 5.each one correct. average odd=value. av.odd =2,00 in this case.
    we earn odd*stake*number of bets = 2,00 * 10 * 5 = 100

    100-50=50 profit - the same, it works

    But let's look what happens if I will change a little the stakes and odds.

    stake odd win
    6 5 + 30
    5 5 - 0
    5 2,5 - 0
    9 2,5 - 0
    10 5 - 0
    ---------------
    35 4 20% 30

    value= hit ratio * av. ood
    value= 0,2*4
    calue= 0,8

    30-35=-5 profit

    Does this Value present average odd as if all picks would be proper?
    picks x 5.we pay 35
    picks x 5.each one correct. average odd=value. av.odd = 0,8. we earn 0,8* 7 * 5 = 28

    28-35=-7 - we lost 5. where is a mistake? can't we take 7 to the second example as average stake? can it work only with fixed stakes?

    and another example... fixed stakes, light odds modification


    stake odd win
    10 5 + 50
    10 5 + 50
    10 2,5 - 0
    10 2,5 - 0
    10 5 - 0
    ---------------
    50 4 40% 100

    value= hit ratio * av. ood
    value= 0,4*4
    value= 1,6

    100-50=50 profit

    "Does this Value present average odd as if all picks would be proper?"
    picks x 5.each one for 10. we pay 50.
    picks x 5.each one correct. average odd=value. av.odd =1,60 in this case.
    we earn odd*stake*number of bets = 1,60 * 10 * 5 = 80

    80-50=30 profit - not the same , it looks that we have to take only correct odds. In this case value would be equal 5*0,4=2 and 10*5*2= 100 -->ok

    odds without changes. stakes modifications. While counting odd's average I take only that correct.

    stake odd win
    5 5 + 25
    10 5 + 50
    10 2,5 - 0
    20 2,5 - 0
    20 5 - 0
    ---------------
    65 5 40% 75

    value= hit ratio * av. ood
    value= 0,4*5
    value= 2,00

    75-65=10 profit

    "Does this Value present average odd as if all picks would be proper?"
    picks x 5. we pay 65.
    picks x 5.each one correct. average odd=value. av.odd =2,00 in this case.
    we earn odd*stake*number of bets = 2,00 * 13 * 5 = 130

    130-65= never +10

    50-65=-15

    Where Am I wrong?
    "Does this Value present average odd as if all picks would be proper?"
    If it does, which odd should I take?
    does it work only with fixed odds?

    PLease help

    #2
    Hi Z,

    if I understand you correctly you're trying to evaluate a series of bets to see if the profit is most likely down to selecting value picks.

    I don't really think that strike rate and average odds helps very much.You need to take into account things like the stake size,individual profits and losses per bet and number of bets.

    Try this or starters.

    Calculate the average profit per bet and the standard error(standard deviation/sqroot of the number of bets) on each profit.

    Taking your first example.

    Stake....odds.....win/loss
    10...........5..........+50
    10...........5..........+50
    10...........2,5.......-10
    10...........2,5.......-10
    10...........5..........-10

    Your average profit per bet is 70/5=14units.
    Your standard deviation for +50,+50,-10,-10,-10 is 29,39
    The square root of your number of bets(5) is 2,236
    Thus your standard error is 29,23/2,236=13,07

    Finally divide your average profit per bet by the standard error,
    and you get 14/13,07=1,07.

    Any number around 1 or bigger(the bigger the better)indicates that your profit is due to good(and therefore by definition)value selections.

    Numbers below 1 (and some of your other examples score 0,4 and 0,03),indicate that the profit is more likely due to good fortune,an abnormally high priced winner or occassional very large stakes on short priced "certainties" and indicate that the profit is unlikely to be maintained.

    Comment


      #3
      Just to add,I've assumed odds of 5 equate to 5/1,if they're in decimal format the calculation,but not the underlying idea changes slightly.

      Comment


        #4
        great thread, thanks a lot...
        That is it what I expected to hear. I suggest to make your opinion sticky to make "Gambler's Bible" for each non-advanced punter. But,
        - what is "standard deviation". How did you count 29,39 ffrom 50,50,-10,-10,-10. I suppose that it is average line in graph showing this record. How do you count it. What formula did you use?
        - does it only work with fixed stakes?

        Comment


          #5
          Hi Z,

          the standard deviation is a measure of the dispersion from the mean and all scientific calculators will give you that answer.

          To calculate in manually you take the DIFFERENCE between the average(14) and each of the 5 individual profit and square them.

          So for the two +50's it is (50-14) squared=1296
          For the three minus 10's it is 14-(-10) squared=576

          In total this is 1296+1296+576+576+576=4320

          You then divide by the number of individual profits(5) and take the square root.
          So the square root of 4320/5=29,39 or your standard deviation.

          The method allows for variation in stake and odds in that it results in low scores below 1 if a profit is assured by staking one off large amounts on short priced games.
          It also takes into account the number of bets.

          Comment


            #6
            to count this value shouldn't we do it in this way?
            Stake....odds.....win/loss
            10...........5..........+50
            10...........5..........+50
            10...........2,5........0
            10...........2,5........0
            10...........5..........0

            profit:100 - staked 50 = 50
            average profit per bet is 50/5=10

            or:
            Stake....odds.....win/loss
            10...........5..........40 --> (50 profit -10 staked) (profit direct = odd*stake - stake)
            10...........5..........40
            10...........2,5........-10
            10...........2,5........-10
            10...........5..........-10

            profit direct (clear) = 80-30=50
            average proft per bet is 50/5=10

            It was mistake taking to one table +50 and -10, wasn't it?
            thanx

            Comment


              #7
              Originally posted by zbrochu
              It was mistake taking to one table +50 and -10, wasn't it?
              thanx
              Hi Z,
              yes I guessed after I'd posted that the odds were decimal(5.0) as opposed to 5/1

              Comment

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