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+0.5 handicap = X2 double chance?

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    +0.5 handicap = X2 double chance?

    Gamebookers' odds for today's game between Malmö and Örgryte (Swedish Allsvenskan) today are 1.75 - 3.40 - 4.00.

    The price on Örgryte +0.5 (1/2) is 2.05, but the price on X2 (double chance) is only 1.75!

    If I fancy Örgryte to win or at least draw, why should I take X2 @ 1.75 instead of Örgryte +0.5 @ 2.05? Bascially these two bets are the same! Or have I missed anything?

    I would be glad if someone could explain why the odds on these two bets are different when they actually give the same result (correct if Örgryte wins or the game ends up in a draw, wrong if Malmö wins)!

    #2
    Re: +0.5 handicap = DA (double chance)?

    Originally posted by tahoma
    Gamebookers' odds for today's game between Malmö and Örgryte (Swedish Allsvenskan) today are 1.75 - 3.40 - 4.00.

    The price on Örgryte +0.5 (1/2) is 2.05, but the price on DA (double chance) is only 1.75!

    If I fancy Örgryte to win or at least draw, why should I take DA @ 1.75 instead of Örgryte +0.5 @ 2.05? Bascially these two bets are the same! Or have I missed anything?

    I would be glad if someone could explain why the odds on these two bets are different when they actually give the same result (correct if Örgryte wins or the game ends up in a draw, wrong if Malmö wins)!
    Well I am not an expert for AH, but I think when you take Ögryte and the match ends 1:1, you get half of your stakes back and win half of the 2.05.
    p.ex. you stake 10$, you get 5$ back and win 10.25$, 15.25$ at the end. If Ögryte wins it, you get 20.5$.

    Something like that, isn't it?

    Comment


      #3
      No, Lakini, I think you're talking about Asian Handicap +0.25 (or +1/4)!

      Here you can see that I win all my stake if the game ends up in a draw:

      http://www.bettingadvice.com/showInfo.php?id=26#7

      Maybe Koffieboer has any good explanation?

      Comment


        #4
        ... Disagree, Lakini ...

        The AH you explain is the Asian handicap +1/4.

        In this case, there is a AH + 1/2, and it's the same that the double chance X/2. Your pick is winning is case of draw or away win.

        For me, it's just a question of probabilities ... I don't know how they make their calculations... I see often differents odds like that, but usually, there is not such difference ... 1.75 and 2.05 looks great ...

        Comment


          #5
          Well then, good to know..

          Comment


            #6
            Tahoma,

            As you said, there's absolutely no difference whether you take X2 or Oergryte +0,5, as far as winning or loosing is considered. The difference in odds seems strange but the reason for it is very simple:

            "1X2" bet gives 3 possible outcomes to bet on, whereas the AH gives only 2 of them. Bookmakers have higher overround on the "1X2" in order to cover the higher number of outcomes( read: to make profit and allow for the possible mistakes in chances estimation).
            (GB's overround on 1X2 bet is 1/1.75+1/3.4+1/4=1,12 whereas on the AH it equals only 1/1.75+1/2.05=1,06)
            The general rule is: the more possible outcomes, the higher the overround( check the overround on HT/FT and final score bets).

            One more notice. When you bet X2, you do nothing else than if you took X and 2 with appropriate percentages of your stake. In the game you mentioned, you should bet 54% on X and 46% on 2. You can easily count that you receive odds of 1,84 on X2. If you compare these odds with the 1.75 on X2 offered by Gamebookers, you will surely come to the conclusion that bookmakers are horrible bastards, who know very well how to make fools of us.

            Finally, the phenomenon you noticed is quite common in betting. For example, instead of betting X you could back the draw by putting your money on 0:0, 1:1, 2:2 and all other possible draw outcomes, devising the stake in a proper way depending on the odds. If you like HT/FT bets, you could even back 1/X, X/X and 2/X. In all these cases you would win if there was a draw. The problem is that the "real" odds in 2nd and 3rd case would be much lower than if you bet on X in "1X2". The reason for this is the higher overround on correct score and HT/FT bets.
            The conclusion is to keep your bets as simply as possible. Personally, I never bet on double chance.

            If you got a bit confused with my explanation, don't hesitate to ask and I will gladly try to put it in other way.

            Comment


              #7
              Thanks Lukasz! You always have good explanations for everything! :wink:

              By the way, how's it going with your exams :?:

              Comment


                #8
                Thanks, Tahoma, tomorrow I will have the results from the writing part. If I did extremely well( odds around 5.00 :wink: ), I will not have to take the oral part, which is a nightmare. I am pretty confident about maths, but polish... Well, I will let you know tommorow. It's nice to know that you remember.

                Comment


                  #9
                  What??? On odds 3.40 for X and 4.00 for 2 they give double chance for X2 = 1.75 ??? Geee.... G'bookers make profit if anyone bets on this double chance !! I've seen Globet decreasing these odds by 0.01 and I thought they suck, now I see G'bookers decreasing the odds for X2 by 0.09 !!! Yep, Lukasz, this is a robbery.
                  Just a question tahoma - what were the odds on AH for home win on the same match?

                  Comment


                    #10
                    Originally posted by one-two
                    Just a question tahoma - what were the odds on AH for home win on the same match?
                    Malmö -0.5 @ 1.75

                    Comment

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