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Mathematics

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    Mathematics

    I got top marks in mathematics in high school, but I'm still not sure about this (or perhaps I'm just lazy :wink:

    I would like to know how to calulate these sums (not just the answer, but the formula for it):

    Example 1: If the odds for a game is 1.60 - 3.50 -4.75, how do I calculate the odds for X2 and how much should (%) I stake on each bet (X and 2) to make the coverbet with equal profit on both draw and away?

    Example 2: My bookie offers 2.75 - 3.20 - 3.25 on a game and I want to make an Asian Handicap with level ball on the home team (0:0). The same question as above, what's the odds for this bet and how much should I stake (%) on the home win and on the draw to get my money back if the game ends up in a draw?

    Please answer clearly! Perhaps there is a program or an Excel-document to help me out?

    #2
    Re: Mathematics

    Originally posted by tahoma
    Example 1: If the odds for a game is 1.60 - 3.50 -4.75, how do I calculate the odds for X2 and how much should (%) I stake on each bet (X and 2) to make the coverbet with equal profit on both draw and away?
    Let's take PSV-Ajax, with y1=odd for home win, y2=odd for draw, y3=odd for away win.

    z = The odd for X2 = 1/(1/y2+1/y3)

    percentage to stake on y2: 100*z/y2
    percentage to stake on y3: 100*z/y3

    But after all, I wouldn't bet on this match. :wink:

    Comment


      #3
      First for X2:

      You want the same profit in case of draw and away win:

      stake_draw * (odds_draw - 1) = profit
      stake_away * (odds_away - 1) = profit

      so :

      stake_draw/stake_away = (odds_away - 1)/(odds_draw -1)


      For Asian handicap 0:0 :
      You want that cover bet completely cover loss of stake on home win (for instance). So:

      stake_draw * (odds_draw - 1) = stake_home

      Odds = (profit/total_stake) + 1.
      In case of asian handicap you'll have 2 odds, one for home win, and one for draw (it will be 1.0 because profit is 0).

      Hope this helps (and that I didn't make mistakes )

      Comment


        #4
        Re: Mathematics

        Originally posted by tahoma

        I would like to know how to calulate these sums (not just the answer, but the formula for it):

        Example 1: If the odds for a game is 1.60 - 3.50 -4.75, how do I calculate the odds for X2 and how much should (%) I stake on each bet (X and 2) to make the coverbet with equal profit on both draw and away?
        Simple formula from elementary school, where a an b are the amounts of money you'll bet on 3.50 and 4.75 respectively :

        a x 3.50 = b x 4.75 :arrow: a = b x 4.75 over 3.50 :arrow: a = b x 1.3571428 :!: :!: :!:

        Conversely, b = a x 3.50 over 4.75 :arrow: b = a x .7368421 :!: :!: :!:

        So, if you bet let's say 10 units on the away win (b) you must bet 10 x 1.3571428 = 13.571428 units on the draw to obtain EQUAL amount. If you bet , lets say, 100 units on the draw, you must bet 100 x .7368421 = 73.68421 units on the away win (a lesser amount obviously) to obtain the same returns :!: :!: :!:

        Try it with your second example, and keep me posted if you run into trouble ops:
        Hasta la Victoria Siempre

        Comment


          #5
          tahoma, read this:

          http://finnx.tip-ex.com/index.php?lang=0

          in your example (1,60-3,50-4,75) you have:

          return (r) = 1.0 / (1.0 / 1,60 + 1.0 / 3,50 + 1.0 / 4,75) = 0,892

          ph = (1.0 / 1,60) * 0,892 = 55,75%
          pd = (1.0 / 3,50) * 0,892 = 25,48%
          pa = (1.0 / 4,75) * 0,892 = 18,77%

          pX2 = pd + pa = 44,25%

          if you want a 100 units profit in both case (X or 2) you have to stake:
          28,57 units on X (28,57 * 3,50 = 100)
          21,05 units on 2 (21,05 * 4,75 = 100)

          according the bookie you have 44,25% of success; if, according to you, the X2 probabilities are greater than 44,25%, your bet has value.

          Comment


            #6

            Comment


              #7
              Originally posted by bulldog
              according the bookie you have 44,25% of success; if, according to you, the X2 probabilities are greater than 44,25%, your bet has value.
              Now you forget the profitmargin of the bookmaker. The 44.25% would result in odds of 2.26 if there were no costs charged. But since the payout is only 89.2%, the odds drop to 2.02. This bet has only got value when you rate the X2 on at least 49.6% of happening. (= 44.25/0.982).
              KOFFIEBOER, YOU ARE MONSTER

              Comment


                #8
                Originally posted by Koffieboer
                Originally posted by bulldog
                according the bookie you have 44,25% of success; if, according to you, the X2 probabilities are greater than 44,25%, your bet has value.
                Now you forget the profitmargin of the bookmaker. The 44.25% would result in odds of 2.26 if there were no costs charged. But since the payout is only 89.2%, the odds drop to 2.02. This bet has only got value when you rate the X2 on at least 49.6% of happening. (= 44.25/0.982).
                you're right.
                in fact, you stake 49,6 in order to have back 100.

                Comment


                  #9
                  Hops!

                  Very interesting math-formular. But could you please show it with some real odds to make it a little less abstract? :? :?:


                  This is a very interesting subject :wink:

                  Comment


                    #10
                    I WANT to add to the confusion.

                    I have been on about 6 different bookie sites and sent a mutltiude of emails and received several replies but not entirely satisfactory. My question is this....in a parlay or accumlator of asian handicap bets, how is the final result calculated? An example is probably the best
                    Eg Argentina (-1/2, -1) @ 1.95 - England bet 1
                    West Brom (0, +1/2) @ 2.25 - Man Yoo bet 2
                    Sunderland (1/2, 1) @ 1.80 - Everton bet 3
                    these are the results: Argentina 1 - 0, West Bron 0 -0 , Sunderland 0 -1
                    My initial stake is $70. what is my total?

                    BOL all.

                    Comment


                      #11
                      One more thing to add about double chance vs asian handicap.....

                      For double chance of say 1x, the odds are lower than asian handicap for the home team (0, +1/2) but the bet is almost identical. If you use the asian handicap in a parlay you'll get higher odds for virtually the same bet.

                      Comment


                        #12
                        Re: Mathematics

                        Originally posted by tahoma
                        Example 2: My bookie offers 2.75 - 3.20 - 3.25 on a game and I want to make an Asian Handicap with level ball on the home team (0:0). The same question as above, what's the odds for this bet and how much should I stake (%) on the home win and on the draw to get my money back if the game ends up in a draw?
                        I didn't have much time to read this topic yet. From the multitude of posts I assume you got the correct answer. The problem with this kind of bets is that "1X2" is a three way bet whereas AH is only a two way bet, therefore bookies overround is greater on 1X2. Furthermore, you also combine two ways of bets ("1" and"X") to get AH 0:0 which additionally increses the overround and, as a result decreases the odds. So odds on sheer AH are alway bigger than those you make up.

                        Comment


                          #13
                          Originally posted by daystrom
                          Eg Argentina (-1/2, -1) @ 1.95 - England bet 1
                          West Brom (0, +1/2) @ 2.25 - Man Yoo bet 2
                          Sunderland (1/2, 1) @ 1.80 - Everton bet 3
                          these are the results: Argentina 1 - 0, West Bron 0 -0 , Sunderland 0 -1
                          My initial stake is $70. what is my total?
                          edit:

                          1. ARG ½-0, win
                          2. ARG 0-0, ½ stake returned ........ win ½ bet

                          3. WBA ½-0, win
                          4. WBA 0-0, ½ stake returned .......... win ½ bet

                          5. SUN ½-1, loss
                          6. SUN 1-1, ½ stake returned .......... returned ½ bet

                          7. payout 70 * (1.95 * ½ + ½) * (2.25 * ½ + ½) * (½)
                          = 70 * 1.475 * 1.625 * 0.50 = 83.89

                          <hr>

                          What would be logical to me in multiples with AH for example with (0:1/4) is <table border=1><tr><td>result:</td><td>homebet</td><td>awaybet</td></tr><tr><td>homewin</td><td>+1.00 * Odds1</td><td>+0.00</td></tr><tr><td>draw</td><td>-0.50</td><td>+½(Odds2+1)</td></tr><tr><td>awaywin</td><td>+0.00</td><td>+1.00*Odds2</td></tr></table>
                          Which could mean that in your ticket you have:
                          stake x (factor1 x odds1 * factor2 x odds2 * factor3 x odds3) =
                          70 x (-0.50 * factor2 x odds2 * factor3 x odds3) = 70 x 0.68 (something smaller than 1.00)
                          KOFFIEBOER, YOU ARE MONSTER

                          Comment


                            #14
                            I found this bet calculator for risk free bets, and I don't know if it works correctly (check this topic), but I think the idea was very good! Therefore I would like to ask if anyone could make a simular online calculator for coverbets (odds + how to stake) and Asian Handicaps (level ball)? I know that it's pretty easy to make an Excel-sheet for this, but I cannot load the program at the moment on my shitty computer and I also think it would be very useful to have this calculator online so it's available from all computers!

                            I would really appreciate if someone could make this calculator and I'm sure everybody here would find it useful!

                            Koffieboer, do you have the knowledge (HTML) for this?

                            Comment


                              #15
                              More calculators

                              Hi,

                              Some more betting calculators can be found at
                              http://www.bethelp.com/Odds/Odds.htm#Calculator

                              Comment

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