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Probability

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    Probability

    How does this work:

    Somebody told me this: if the bookie gives an odd of 1.70 for the Home team to win they suspect the probability is 1/1.70= 59%

    Is this correct?

    If it is correct, why do for example the odds on Groningen - Excelsior show a percentage above 100%:

    1.25 - 5.00 - 9.00 = 80% - 20% - 11% = 111%

    How do you use this information?

    What does it tell you?

    How does this work for example in under/over and double chance?

    Because the odds are for example in NEC - Twente for under/over 1.95 - 1.75...together around 108%

    It looks to me that the first thing I said in this post isn't true...but it also sounds logical.

    Can somebody explain it to me? Thanks in advance.

    #2
    They show a percentage above 100% because the bookie offers an unrealistic price. In reality, a 1.25 favorite (according to bookies) should have odds of at least 1.30. Bookies overestimate the chances of all three possible picks, and they highly overestimate huge favorites.

    The bigger the chance, the lower the odds. Bookies want to offer lower odds. Makes sense?

    In reality, the Groeningen-Excelsior match should have had odds similar to these:
    1.40 - 5.50 - 10.00
    72% - 18% - 10%

    You can see this most clearly on over/under bets. You'll never see anything higher than 1.95-1.95, and in reality the odds should be 2.00-2.00. The "stolen part" of the odds is what keeps the bookies in business.

    Obviously, the bookie would never profit if they offered odds that high. The answer is, the 1/1.70=59% statement is correct, but bookies don't use it. Tipsters do, when trying to decide whether the odds offered reflect the realistic percentage of winning.
    Euro 2016 tips at Betinsight.co.uk

    Comment


      #3
      1.01 99%
      1,05 95%
      1.10 91%
      1.15 87%
      1.20 83.5%
      1.25 80%
      1.30 77%
      1.35 74%
      1.40 71.5%
      1.45 69%
      1.50 66.5%
      1.55 64.5%
      1.60 62.5%
      1.65 60.5%
      1.70 59%
      1.75 57%
      1.80 55.5%
      1.85 54%
      1.90 52.5%
      1.95 51.5%
      2.00 50%

      Comment

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