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Help with calculate percents of different results (football)

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    Help with calculate percents of different results (football)

    Hello

    Can anybody help with my problem. How I can calculate percents for
    different results (0-0, 0-1, 0-2 ...) if I know Hometeam and Awayteam goal averages, played games result so far (this season), scored goals averages, allowed goals averages, point averages. Maybe I can add other data to my software too but is it possible to calculate different results persantages with these infos.

    I have no a little bit time to improve my reporting software now.

    Other problem:

    Which is best/simple way to generate some kind of power rates for teams:
    my software go through team's all matches then I do report, so I think it is easy to generate some kind of power rate for team (home and away), my software has variables for home/away wins, draws, away win, opponent place in table... (I have only data of recent season but it's not bothering me).

    I have already to chance to add some factors those change my estimations (injuries, motivation...)

    Marko
    My webpage and mailing list (PAID).

    #2
    This is not straightforward. The number of goals in a match follow a Poisson distribution, so you could design a model that uses your historical data to estimate parameters. Maybe the following link can help you some more.

    http://www.wibeso.com/articles/poisson_distribution.htm
    KOFFIEBOER, YOU ARE MONSTER

    Comment


      #3
      Thanks for quickly answer!

      - I must probably have larger database (more seasons)
      - First I must power rating teams to different categories

      Copy from weblink:

      ...

      And as some examples in field of sportsbetting using Poisson Distribution method to predict amountof scores and outcomes. If we know that home teams have *scored in average 1.60 times* in some specific league and *power rating category* (against same performance teams), we can calculate the probability for them to score 2 times as follows:

      P (%) = 100 * (1.60 ^ 2 * e ^ - 1.60) / 2! = 100 * 2.56 * 0.202 / (1 * 2) = 25.8%

      And the probability for them to score 3 times:

      P (%) = 100* (1.60 ^ 3 * e ^ - 1.60) / 3! = 100 * (4.1 * 0.202 / (1 * 2 * 3)) = 13.8%

      ...

      - Is that scoring average all games average or home games average?
      - How I change the formula if teams are not in same power rating category?

      Marko
      My webpage and mailing list (PAID).

      Comment

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