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  • Miccho
    replied
    I agree with Macot. Better wait 10 minutes and get Over 1.5 line, instead of over 2.

    I still think the best tactic is to bet around 20th minute of games which are 0:0 and take Over 2 goals. This works very well in MLS - if the game is 0:0 by 20th minute you frequently get 1.70-1.80 on Over 2, and MLS games very rarely feature less than 2 goals.

    Leave a comment:


  • Macot
    replied
    Originally posted by KL1NCUNT View Post
    in my opinion, the best time to live bet is around 60th minute, odds on many leagues then are on asian handicap over 2.0 between 1.80 to 2.50 depending about the league

    that's for live overs
    In my opinion that is not the right approach. If you take odds @2,00 for over 1 goal (if result is 0-0) then you need two goals in last half hour which of course is no way easy.
    On contrary, I wait until 65th to 70th minute in games where bookmakers expected under but result is 1-0, 2-1 or similar and take over 1,5 if it is 1-0 or over 3,5 if it is 2-1... the choice is logical and these odds are widely available in ITalian Serie B and Pro Lega, in French leagues, ARgentina, even Brasil and some others.
    That in my opinion is a lot better, you only need one goal and results is one goal difference, perfect for another goal from one or other side, as the things get more and more open. So only 5-10 minutes later and i need 1 goal to win while you need 2 goals to win.

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  • BCBS
    replied
    Nice article!

    Leave a comment:


  • bulletbet
    replied
    LIVE BETTING ARTICLE

    www.bullet-bet.com

    Beating the bookies on soccer 10 years ago was easy looking from today. Odds have been compiled by humans, ussualy 4-5 top compilers would focus on strongest leagues, while the odds for lower leagues were made by "whoever wants". It was completely normal that volleyball compiler from Poland is asked to do the soccer odds because "he knows something, he is from Poland". Bookies would throw 500 lines for weekend, and finding those few weak lines was easy game.

    LIVE betting inovation was great news for me, because bookies would offer 5 times bigger limits, and opening line would often be that same wrong pre-match line. Since most players lose much more money on LIVE betting, bookies would have lower awareness, account were not limited, and odds would not drop. That was the "golden age" of betting.

    Times change, and betting industry is one of the fastest moving. Bookies rely more than ever on very good algorythms that can use hundreds of information in one secund. They are connected on twitter feeds, taking information on injuries and starting lineups faster then players. Odds compilers compile no more, they are just controling the lines after the release, and those same algorythms are now making odds for lower leagues. Mistakes are less then before.
    That was the main push for stronger move to LIVE betting. All soccer model algorythms were linear distribution (most of them binom Poisson, because pure Poisson underestimate possibility of draw in soccer), they would take starting asian handicap and total goals, and distribute them linear on 90 minutes, without taking much input from whats going on the pitch. Tehnology advanced, one bookie trader would trade 8 matches in the same time, having no time to really focus on all those games. That was my chance, but unfortunatelly, that time passed as well.

    Todays new generation of soccer models take into account all those information that you can see on Bet365 event viewer, like ball possession, attacks, dangerous attacks, shots on goal, corners - and use those information to adjust the odds. Technology advance took one advantage from me, but brought another one - that same tech advance allowed traders to put only one trader behind 25+ LIVE matches, and he is not longer real trader, he just activate the games after the goal or red card. I don't need to think "is there some top trader behind this match, will he trade his match without mistakes". As soon as ball enter last pitch quarter, scouts puts that as "dangerous attack", and algorythms can't separate harmless ball possession in opponent field from "all or nothing" attack on the pitch, where you can smell the goal in the air. That is what I'm looking for, that is my chance.

    I always have 3 screens on when betting. Two are match streams, and bookies and odds on third. I look for goals, and that is why all my bets are either on OVER, or on team that is clearly better on the pitch in my eyes, and plays for win. ALL LIVE bets are only on matches I can watch, and I never placed a bet without seeing what is going on the pitch. I live for soccer, I watch it 5-6 hours per day, and analyze 2-3 hours each morning. I search for the matches where I predict chances for goals are bigger than bookies odds, and by my results you can see I am good at it.
    Answer on question from beggining "why so many LIVE" - because it gives me better chance to beat the bookies! I understand that placing LIVE bets is
    not simple, and may cause issues due to lack of time, but I might have some plans for that problem. If you are a big player, contact me on mail for talk.

    What if goal is scored in that period after your mail is sent, and I couldn't make it? - Often question, and offcourse that situation occurs from time to time, but ALL my bets are either on OVER, or on Asian handicap on team that is level or behind, which means that odds are rising on them if you are late! Sometimes goal will be scored if you are late, but often you will catch much better odds on my bets than me if you are few minutes late, and in the end your stats will be the same like mine!
    Advantage of my service against others is my focus on strong leagues for which LIVE betting is available on all your bookies (my reccomendation is always Pinnacle), and Yield I am making is speaking for itself. Everybody who is here for serious business, knows how hard is to beat the bookies on strong soccer leagues, and that is something you will not find on other services.
    Kind regards, your Bullet

    www.bullet-bet.com

    Leave a comment:


  • BCBS
    replied
    Im gonna keep an eye out for the odds around minute 60. Thank for the reply

    Leave a comment:


  • KL1NCUNT
    replied
    in my opinion, the best time to live bet is around 60th minute, odds on many leagues then are on asian handicap over 2.0 between 1.80 to 2.50 depending about the league

    that's for live overs

    Leave a comment:


  • BCBS
    started a topic Live betting

    Live betting

    I am wondering what the best time is to livebet. Is it early in the game,late in the game or half time?

    What is your opinion?

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