BWIN Pinnacle 888sport Bet365 10BET Gamebookers Betfair BET-AT-HOME Expekt 5Dimes CANBET


Go Back   Bettingadvice forum > Promotion > Tips websites

Tips websites Promote your betting website here !!!
Dont forget to signup at EXPEKT - 100% bonus, unbeatable number of events on offer!!

Online Sports Betting at Pinnacle Sports
BET365: Simply the best bookie for livebetting! PINNACLE: BA's all time favourite bookmaker. Great odds!


Reply
 
Thread Tools
Old 26-08-14, 19:39   #1
JoeB
Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: UK
Posts: 775
JoeB is an unknown quantity at this point
Default VerifiedTipsters.com

As I'm sure all of you know, VerifiedTipsters.com, like BA, is a tips verification service.

I have been banned by their service forum, allegedly for abusing it by posting new topics in order to create a wrong impression about VerifiedTipsters.

These were essentially my questions.

1) Why did VerifiedTipsters report an aggregated yield (i.e. the yield from all tipsters since verification began in 2007) of 4.8% from 80,000 tips when I calculated a figure of 6.8% (7.1% if standardised by stake size) from the same data as made available on the homepage?

To put this question in context, I subscribe to the efficiency market hypothesis which essentially says that all available information about a betting prices will on average already be contained within that betting price, meaning that tipsters and punters on average will not do better than break even. Of course there will be variability due to good and bad luck, and a few may even be skilled enough to beat the market long term, but as in the financial industry, most are not and it is the reason why most punters lose money, and why my verification service Sports-Tipsters had an aggregated yield of 1% from 160,000 picks over 11 years from 250 tipsters(documented in full in my book), why the Punters Lounge tipping competition had about -1% from 160,000 picks from 579 individuals and why the Oddsportal community has a yield of just under 1% from over 3.3 million posted tips. Other multi-tipster portals like Betadvisor have shown the same.

VerifiedTipsters don't deduct betfair commission. From observation of some of the records I would guess that about 25% of the verified tips are from Betfair. If I assume an average price of 2.00, then the effects of this undeducted commission will be in the region of 0.75 to 1%. So a post commission aggregated yield of about 6% from 80,000 tips is what we are looking at.

I consider this to be very unusual (statistically speaking). I tried to stimulate a debate about it on the Verified Tipsters forum - http://www.verifiedtipsters.com/foru...p?topic=2855.0 - but got banned for my efforts.

2) Where can I find out information about the Ph.D. that VerifiedTipsters service manager Mr. G. Wilson did under Professor Neil Keegan. Specifically, at what university research department did it take place, and were any papers published anywhere from the research that was carried about? Can I have a copy?

I posted the question on their forum - http://www.verifiedtipsters.com/foru...p?topic=2864.0 - after the service assistant Mr. W Gardner repeatedly explained to me that G. Wilson had not returned from his leave of absence. I first mailed my request to VerifiedTipsters on the 11th July and on the 14th Mr Gardner told me G. Wilson would be back from his leave of absence early August. I mailed again on the 7th August but Mr Gardner told me Mr. Wilson should have been back but he'd probably taken more days off and couldn't be reached. He gave me another e-mail address to try. By the 19th August I had received no reply. Mr Gardner then told me that he was unavailable for another 3 weeks. On the 21st August I posted my question on the VerifiedTipsters forum.

Here is the context. I first saw mention of Mr. Wilson's Ph.D on the "about us page - http://www.verifiedtipsters.com/about_us.php. VerifiedTipsters say that the website started as part of Mr Wilsonís Phd thesis on internet sports gambling under the supervision of Professor Neil Keegan, back in 2007. I'm in the process of pulling together reading material for my next book on gambling and though a Ph.D. on internet sports gambling and specifically fraud/scam tipping services would be worth a read and so wanted to get hold of a copy and/or any peer reviewed papers that may have come of it. Mr Gardner has also told me that Professor Neil Keegan has since retired to the Channel Isle of Jersey. After having to wait and wait for Wilson's failed return, I stated googling for their research and for Professor Neil Keegan. I cannot not find a single shed of information on any of it, unlike googling for other academics' research. I have since also found that talk of a Ph.D. by Mr. Wilson was only added to VerifiedTipsters about us page sometime in the spring of 2013. This can be confirmed via the Wayback archive.

3) VerifiedTipsters's service manager has told the forum that they are based in the UK (http://www.verifiedtipsters.com/foru...hp?topic=121.0). The IP address of the website is Leeds, England. However, they have told us (http://www.verifiedtipsters.com/foru...?topic=2832.60 and http://www.verifiedtipsters.com/foru...?topic=2855.15) that the website cannot accept advertising for gambling products for legal reasons. Earning an income from gambling advertising is perfectly legal from within the UK. The specific question I posted about this has since been deleted but I have screenshots to prove that I posted it.

The context is that if the owners are registered in the UK why do they claim that they cannot earn from gambling advertising?

The wider context is that over the past couple of years it has been suggested to me that VerifiedTipsters is not all that appears to be, and that it supports its own services in a country other than the UK, in and amongst the many services that it verifies independently. Every time someone has suggested this to me, I have explained that unless I am shown any evidence to the contrary, I would continue to believe that VerifiedTipsters is fully open and transparent, and throughout that time I have continued to refer tipsters to them for verification where I have opted not to verify them myself.

Now that I have spent 7 weeks trying to find out about a Ph.D and the professor who oversaw it and got nowhere, now that I've found that VerifiedTipsters aren't interested in discussing the implications of a large positive yield from a large aggregated tips dataset, and now that I have had seemingly straightforward posts deleted and my forum account closed despite having broken no rules, I am left to wonder.

Your opinions, without defamation, are appreciated.
JoeB is offline   Reply With Quote

PINNACLE SPORTS: One of the very best. New website!

Old 26-08-14, 23:30   #2
disident
Member
 
disident's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Republic of Macedonia
Posts: 747
disident is on a distinguished road
Default

It is service vs.service confrontation or what ?Anyway u sad that they came with some positive result and u calculated even more positive.So what's the deal,problem in calculations or problem in general like no tipster can do better than break even?
disident is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 27-08-14, 00:06   #3
JoeB
Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: UK
Posts: 775
JoeB is an unknown quantity at this point
Default

To be clear, this is not a confrontation. This is about transparency and free debate. VerifiedTipsters have taken the decision, rightly or wrongly, to censor my discussion. I'm asking for other people's opinions about that in the context of the things I was asking them about, which I've spelt out above.

Regarding the yield figure, of course some tipsters can do better than break even, but if you subscribe to efficient market hypothesis, which I do based on all the other tips datasets I've had the opportunity of analysing, then on average you expect all yields to be roughly normally distributed about a mean close to 0%. An aggregated 6.8% from 300 tipsters and 80,000 tips (even with betfair commission in there) presents a challenge to that hypothesis. Either the hypothesis needs updating or there is something unique about the data.

Have a read of http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Efficie...ket_hypothesis if you want more details about why all of this matters to me.

For me now, the credibility of VerifiedTipsters can be tested by the verification of Mr. G. Wilson's Ph.D. thesis, and where he and his Professor Neil Keegan undertook that research. If it exists then the institution where it was carried out will most likely have a copy. And even if they don't, they will be able to verify for me that this work actually happened.

So with that in mind, I'm offering £100 to the first person who can get me a copy of that Ph.D (I'll pay for any costs involved) and who can verify where Professor Keegan was employed and what his speciality was.

If it's real, it's all very easily verifiable and I'm perfectly happy for them and anyone else to make a fool out of me in this context, because I'd actually like to read this research into scam/fraud tipping services that G. Wilson claims to have carried out.

Perhaps none of this matters to you, disident, and perhaps not to others either. But it matters to me, and I don't really have to account for that, I just have to ask for help from others to whom it might matter also.
JoeB is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 27-08-14, 01:02   #4
disident
Member
 
disident's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Republic of Macedonia
Posts: 747
disident is on a distinguished road
Default

Yep,6.8 units on every 100 invested on 80000 tips it is very much.1 unit per bet will bring 5440 profit!
disident is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 27-08-14, 01:43   #5
disident
Member
 
disident's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Republic of Macedonia
Posts: 747
disident is on a distinguished road
Default

I have read that about EMH and maybe it is just like Paul Samuelson is sayin EMH is better suited for individual stock prices movement rather than aggregate stock market.Or it is just possible that they are verifying the best tipsters/insiders on the market.Good read anyway you are returning me to economics,i had quit faculty 4 exams to graduation
disident is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 27-08-14, 10:26   #6
packito84
Freshman
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 91
packito84 is on a distinguished road
Default

I dont know why but from the day i registered there, i will receive everyday spam email about fixed matches from some stupid scammers... But i knew that i have not been the only with This problem.
packito84 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 27-08-14, 12:46   #7
JoeB
Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: UK
Posts: 775
JoeB is an unknown quantity at this point
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by disident View Post
Or it is just possible that they are verifying the best tipsters/insiders on the market.
That is always possible, but they claim that tipsters come to them, they do not go looking for tipsters. That's just as it is on Sports-Tipsters, as it is on the Punters Lounge, as it is at Oddsportal. Of course, it's still possible that VerifiedTipsters could have somehow attracted an amazing (on average) sample of 300 tipsters, but I contend that this is statistically hugely unlikely. I've never seen such a thing anywhere else.

Within the database there are some highly questionable figures. A tipster called Card trader for example was responsible for a yield of 24.59% from 1,468 picks at average odds of 1.49. It's not even clear what the betting market was here (it's not sports), but whatever it is, don't you think that if such an inefficient market had ever once existed, it would not have existed for very long and certainly not for 5 years over which it was verified. Just one unprofitable month in 5 years. The probability of this record happening by chance is 1 in 24900000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 0000000000. As soon as an advantage is found, information quickly leaks out, so it doesn't last very long.

There is a sports tipster on there with a yield of 15% from 2,097 picks, average odds 2.01, probability 1 in 300 billion. Success has not been so good in the last year but from February 2008 to April 2010 - 27 months - there was just 1 unprofitable month. With so few pick per month (average 33) it's just unreasonable to expect that there can be so few losing runs capable of making a month negative. Even the best tipsters have losing runs, now and again. So many consecutive positive months from so few tips per months just doesn't look statistically realistic.

Naturally, I have no concrete evidence that these figures aren't genuine. It's all purely circumstantial based on theory. But if the people I'm asking questions about the data censor me, and either won't or can't verify Neil Keegan's professorship and G. Wilson's Ph.D., you can see how certain conclusions might be jumped to.

There are so many more people in the world that want to convince you that a long term market inefficiency is genuine than there are people who are genuinely capable of sustaining a long term market inefficiency. The ratio of sharks to sharps is probably 100 or 1000 to 1 and there are probably 100 or 1000 times as many suckers ready to fall for it.
JoeB is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 27-08-14, 12:50   #8
JoeB
Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: UK
Posts: 775
JoeB is an unknown quantity at this point
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by packito84 View Post
I dont know why but from the day i registered there, i will receive everyday spam email about fixed matches from some stupid scammers... But i knew that i have not been the only with This problem.
Are you able to post details, or if you prefer not to, forward me some of the example mail to me if you still have any? You can find my e-mail address at the bottom of http://sports-tipsters.co.uk/contact.php
JoeB is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 27-08-14, 13:04   #9
packito84
Freshman
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 91
packito84 is on a distinguished road
Default

No problem JoeB, i receive costantly email spammer from poland users (i'm italian) and from some fake sites, Talking with a friend, he says me that he used a email address only for That forum and after registration he received some emails that i received, so 1+1=2.
packito84 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 27-08-14, 15:01   #10
disident
Member
 
disident's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Republic of Macedonia
Posts: 747
disident is on a distinguished road
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by JoeB View Post

Within the database there are some highly questionable figures. A tipster called Card trader for example was responsible for a yield of 24.59% from 1,468 picks at average odds of 1.49. It's not even clear what the betting market was here (it's not sports), but whatever it is, don't you think that if such an inefficient market had ever once existed, it would not have existed for very long and certainly not for 5 years over which it was verified. Just one unprofitable month in 5 years. The probability of this record happening by chance is 1 in 24900000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 0000000000. As soon as an advantage is found, information quickly leaks out,

There is a sports tipster on there with a yield of 15% from 2,097 picks, average odds 2.01, probability 1 in 300 billion.
It is possible for some tipsters.Anyone remember Komso?Nowhere to be seen lately after he was exposed.Winner of POD yearly competition twice(2000 euros making fool of everyone here).Check his stats at betrush.He is all time high there with 18 percent ROI over 1000 tips.Guy was betting on unknown leagues like Iran handball or Columbia basketball,betting on underdogs against huge handi lines like 60 points.Statistical bets ofc. when it is great possibility favorites to stop punishing opponents similar like tanking in NBA or just a relax moment.This markets are low.Bet365 will except only 5 euros limit per bet.U can't make money on that.But Komso did make money out of POD...
So it is possible for some tipsters but unlikely for 300 as u said.I agree!
disident is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 27-08-14, 15:40   #11
TEDDIE21
Senior Member
 
TEDDIE21's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Europe
Posts: 2,556
TEDDIE21 is an unknown quantity at this point
Default

It's very good that Joe raised this problem over here, as I have an even more straightforward opinion about VerifiedTipsters.com.

I won't make it long as Joe already brought some good questions on the table, I'll just add that from my point of view, VerifiedTipsters.com is a scam ring. Yes, I don't have technical proves to show you that, but all this bull **** about exorbitant records and amazing tipsters that only VerifiedTipsters.com produce, not to mention many other aspects I've been noticing while proofing my own service with them for a while, brought me to one real conclusion: it's a scam, and it's not a typical scam.

To make it short: verifiedTipsters.com is composed of two parts.

1. Their own (in-house) paid services that manipulate records when no subscribers

2. Some honest services like Andrei Nitu for example or others, so that it looked real.

This explains why they sell by pick and why the monthly fees are very high, quite different to what real and honest services usually do.

It's nearly impossible to have proves against them, because they only cheat when one of their services has no subscribers. So they could virtually manipulate anything. When at least one customer joins the service, they will make it look real and stay honest. But as they sell by pick most of the time, the life of a VerifiedTipsters.com paid service customer is usually short (it's not like you would subscriber for one season 0 it would cost you the house probably), and this allows them to easily manipulate their stats just in case something went bad during the times they were doing it for real.

I hope you understand what I did mean. Just watch them out and don't even think Joe or I, are writing here just for the sake of competition. There can't be any competition when you deal with scammers.
__________________
Your Asian Handicap Soccer Betting Guide: http://forum.bettingadvice.com/showthread.php?t=91021
TEDDIE21 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 27-08-14, 22:37   #12
wlodi
Freshman
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Poland
Posts: 110
wlodi is an unknown quantity at this point
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by TEDDIE21 View Post
[...]not to mention many other aspects I've been noticing while proofing my own service with them for a while[...]

this is important I think, what did u notice during proofing ur service?
wlodi is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 28-08-14, 00:16   #13
JoeB
Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: UK
Posts: 775
JoeB is an unknown quantity at this point
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by disident View Post
So it is possible for some tipsters but unlikely for 300 as u said.I agree!
Just to be clear, not all of those 300 tipsters were/are profitable. In fact of the 296 on the database (their homepage), 173 or 58.4% of them were.

That figure is slightly higher than I would expect but not unreasonable.

The problem is with the aggregated yield and also the number of tips supplied by the "winners" versus the number of tips supplied by the losers.

Naturally one would expect losers to give up sooner than winners so we would expect more tips to be on a database from winners than losers which will have some influence in pushing the aggregated average above 0% (but not much if most of the tipsters, winners and losers are lucky/unlucky rather than skilled - I've tested it).

For the VT database it is 80%. This is pretty high. For my verified database it's considerably lower at closer to 70%.

Of course 80% is still possible but I maintain unlikely unless a significantly above average proportion of the verified tipsters there are skilled and not just lucky/unlucky. IF VT claim that the tipsters come to them, as they do for Sports-Tipsters, its highly unlikely that there could be some many skilled tipsters that push the percentage of tips from winners to 80% and the aggregated average yield to 6 or 7%.

Teddie's theory is one possible way that this could happen.

But there is no proof, only circumstantial evidence, and I'm not in the business of making claims against a verification service unless I can prove they are cheating.

What I can do is ask for evidence of the Ph.D. that the service owner claims to have completed, and I can asked where this was carried out and where Professor Keegan was employed to tutor G. Wilson as his student.

This was one of the reasons VT censored me from their forum.

So today I have be in contact with a number of well known and highly regarded academics in the field of gambling, gambling economics and gambling policy to see if any of them had come across the name Professor Neil Keegan and a Ph.D. by a G. Wilson.

2 have so far replied

The first of them said:

"I'm 99% sure that neither Wilson or Keegan exist. UNLV have an archive of gambling PhDs and although there are two wilsons there is no PhD like the one you describe."

http://gaming.unlv.edu/reading/published_diss.html

The second one (some of you may very well have read his book) said:

"I have no knowledge of said persons and am reasonably confident that I would be aware of the work referred to if it was part of the mainstream academic discourse. Further, casual observation would suggest that the author/s of the website text is/are unlikely to be native English speakers."

This is interesting, because many of the implicated services verified by VT that have been suggested to belong to part of this ring are not from the UK. Furthermore, it would account for why the VT owners maintain they are unable to legally earn revenue from gambling advertising. That is perfectly legal in the UK. There is plenty of other written text I can refer to in VT's own posts that would lead any native English speaker to suspect that the author of this texts is not himself a native English speaker.

Of course, it doesn't really matter whether he's English or otherwise, what matters is whether and why he's been prepared to lie about where he is operating from. As the owner of a verification service I would have though it essential to treat honesty and transparency with the utmost importance. I suppose if you are prepared to lie about where you are operating from, and you are prepared to fake your own Ph.D and Professorship, then you might be prepared to do other things to.

A second library source of Ph.Ds is UK only:

http://ethos.bl.uk/Home.do

Again, however, there is no evidence of any gambling Ph.D by a G. Wilson. 3 Neil Keegans can be found, but none have carried out research in that field. An presumably none of them are yet old enough to have retired to Jersey, as has been claimed.

So on that basis I am prepared to stick my neck out here and say that G.Wilson's Ph.D and Neil Keegan's professorship are fake. They do not exist. And the reason VT's service manager refused to answer me and then ultimately censored me was not because G.Wilson was unavailable for comment for 7 long weeks but because he didn't want to tell me the truth.

If you trawl through VT's forum archive long enough (you need to register and then look at the past posts of VerifiedTipsters) Neil Keegan is the name that appears for the first few years and then G. Wilson is introduced some time in 2011. February 2013 Keegan makes a post attacking a service called Snakebet and then complains he has to attend to a professors' meeting because it's end of semester 1 exams. This is the only time the word "professor" is mentioned in the forum as far as I can see. Within a few months, the "About Us" page on the main website is changed include the text the website being born out of G. Wislon's Ph.D. and work with Professor Neil Keegan. Then earlier this year a W. Garndner shows up and he's the name I was dealing with since July because G. Wilson is off around the world on business and leisure trips (flying up to 4 times a week).

I'd been interested to know how he funds that if his only income is verification subscriptions. With currently close to 100 active tipsters being verified, at 85 Euro per quarter than translates into a gross revenue of just 34,000 Euro. That will be a maximum since 2007. For most of the years since the site started, subscription revenue will presumably have been much less than that. A simply Wayback archive check can reveal how many active tipsters will have been paying VT. This is not enough to pay staff to manage your website and then jet around the world 4 times a week. Perhaps he's visiting Neil's grandchildren in Jersey. Perhaps if he really is he has other sources of income. If Teddie is correct, we can guess where.

But I'm happy for VerifiedTipsters to come out of their hiding place and make a fool of me. Show us all this Ph.D by G. Wilson, and tell us where Professor Neil Keegan was worrying about semester 1 exams, and then I can eat humble pie and begin to rebuild my faith in a project that for so long I respected but now I think has lost all its credibility. It would be far more important to me that VT can prove its honesty and transparency even if that means's making me look like a complete idiot.

So I'll double that offer to £200.

Just as a final comment, in the last weeks I was receiving abuse for being involved with the new Pyckio.com project. Despite revealing openly my role and stake in the new company (I wrote the university, helped create the tipsters ranking algorithm and will facilitate advertising relationships with the bookmakers in the future, for a 5% stake) and terminating my verification of the service Sportty on the grounds that it would be a conflict of interest, I was accused by members, not necessarily associated with the VT management) of being involved in a scam.

So here is the scam. Today I asked one of the co-founders for the aggregated yield of the tips advised so far by the everyone who has registered so far.

92,274 picks
from 1,237 tipsters
aggregated yield = -3.31%
A significant majority of those tipsters are currently losing.

So much for the scam.

All picks are given with either Pinnacle or Bet365 prices. It is therefore perfectly clear why the aggregated yield is this figure. Along with the Sports-Tipsters database, the Punters Lounge Tipster Competition databse and the Oddsportal community database, this is just more evidence of wisdom of crowds and the efficient market hypothesis. Of course some tipsters will do well, some not so well, but most just operate on luck (good or bad) and few can consistently beat the market in the long run.

The VerifiedTipsters database is the odd one out and until their owners can openly account for who they really are then I maintain their credibility is shot.
JoeB is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 28-08-14, 10:16   #14
SportsAdvices
Freshman
 
Join Date: Oct 2013
Posts: 77
SportsAdvices is an unknown quantity at this point
Default

To make it short: verifiedTipsters.com is composed of two parts.

1. Their own (in-house) paid services that manipulate records when no subscribers

Hi

I have to said interesting topic, because we are Verified almost 1 year there so im asking myself which services are "their own". I know i wont get answer by myself, because i dont know that is why i asking you to tell me and everybody which services are their own?

Kindly Regards, Betting-advices
SportsAdvices is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 28-08-14, 10:18   #15
SportsAdvices
Freshman
 
Join Date: Oct 2013
Posts: 77
SportsAdvices is an unknown quantity at this point
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by TEDDIE21 View Post

To make it short: verifiedTipsters.com is composed of two parts.

1. Their own (in-house) paid services that manipulate records when no subscribers
Hi

I have to said interesting topic, because we are Verified almost 1 year there so im asking myself which services are "their own". I know i wont get answer by myself, because i dont know that is why i asking you to tell me and everybody which services are their own?

Kindly Regards, Betting-advices
SportsAdvices is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 28-08-14, 12:56   #16
TEDDIE21
Senior Member
 
TEDDIE21's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Europe
Posts: 2,556
TEDDIE21 is an unknown quantity at this point
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by wlodi View Post
this is important I think, what did u notice during proofing ur service?
Quote:
Originally Posted by wlodi View Post
this is important I think, what did u notice during proofing ur service?
There are really many aspects that indicate dishonest behavior from their side. Some of these things I no longer remember because I used to deal them some time ago and I prefer to forget things I don't like. Nevertheless, here are some I do remember and are pretty obvious:

1. Forum censorship; I was banned, Joe was also banned for asking too many questions; if you are clean and honest - you don't want to ban your users just because they ask too much;

2. Similar type of comments in the forum; I did notice that although comments were coming from different users, many of those comments/posts used to be of a similar type; when I say "of similar type" I do mean that they were all sharing exactly the same idea, and even the English used was somehow similar; from my experience, it is perfectly normal that any forum has different people and they all share different ideas, take BettingAdvice for example and check most threads - you will clearly notice lots of debates and different opinions; this was not the case at VT and it felt like you were in North Korea and everyone was supposed to act the same; so as far as I am concerned, I understand that someone moderates all the comments and posts in the name of more users, for more credibility and to give the false impression that that particular idea is the right one;

3. All those services with mega-amazing records, they all sell "by pick". From my experience, it is known that when a tipster/service is really interested to do a good job and provide a good service, he will go for the old-school style and that means monthly or season packages with profit guarantees maybe, but no way he will sell by pick and ask something like 100 EUR just for one tip; The reason they do it I have already explained in my previous post - so this is the only way for them to be able to cheat without being put at risk to be exposed.

+ other things I can't remember right now.
__________________
Your Asian Handicap Soccer Betting Guide: http://forum.bettingadvice.com/showthread.php?t=91021
TEDDIE21 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 28-08-14, 14:42   #17
JoeB
Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: UK
Posts: 775
JoeB is an unknown quantity at this point
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by SportsAdvices View Post
Hi

I have to said interesting topic, because we are Verified almost 1 year there so im asking myself which services are "their own". I know i wont get answer by myself, because i dont know that is why i asking you to tell me and everybody which services are their own?

Kindly Regards, Betting-advices
Look for similarities amongst services, for example, the magnitude of the subscription fees, the number tips per month, the theme and feel of the tipsters' websites and their domain registrars and whether the registrant details are private. Look for whether services started fresh with VT or whether they have records that pre-date verification by VT meaning they were active before hand. Look for long sequences of positive ROIs in the first months of verification. Look for whether services were closed when verification ended (or carried on afterwards without VT verification). Much of this can be done via Whois lookups and the Wayback archive.

Where there is fraud, and I'm not saying there is in this case, there is almost always a trail. It all depends how much other people want to find it.

I shouldn't give all this away, it might help others do a better job of hiding things.

Out of interest, what is your service, SportsAdvices?


VT contacted me again today. They had nothing significant to add.

They still haven't produced the Ph.D. so I've asked for it again.
JoeB is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 28-08-14, 17:55   #18
JoeB
Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: UK
Posts: 775
JoeB is an unknown quantity at this point
Default

Another reply from another real professor today...

"You will scarcely be surprised by my reply that I have never heard of Prof. Keegan. There are some academic authors from backgrounds well removed from economics and statistics who nevertheless dabble in gambling work and so I would not necessarily have come across such a person if Prof. Keegan fell into that category. On the other hand, it is very unlikely that a professor at any institution here or overseas would be hidden from view after even a basic online search."

Of course, when Keegan and Wilson show me the evidence I will show you. Until that time, please feel free to post anything you may know about VerifiedTipsters, provided it's not libellous, not that I think they deserve such respect any more. Besides, one can only successfully prosecute a libel case if it is shown that the allegations are both untrue and caused reputational damage.
JoeB is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 28-08-14, 18:51   #19
RedGreenAce
Freshman
 
Join Date: May 2014
Posts: 21
RedGreenAce is on a distinguished road
Default

My buddy went to UNLV and he said Prof. Keegan teached there. He doesn't know if he still does. Not sure what's the point. What's the connection of this Prof. Keegan and VerifiedTipsters.com?
RedGreenAce is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 28-08-14, 19:28   #20
azzurini1976
Member
 
azzurini1976's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2012
Posts: 535
azzurini1976 is on a distinguished road
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by RedGreenAce View Post
My buddy went to UNLV and he said Prof. Keegan teached there. He doesn't know if he still does. Not sure what's the point. What's the connection of this Prof. Keegan and VerifiedTipsters.com?
Best idea is to read from the start and they you will not ask such a question

But to summarize iz:

JoeB is on path to investigate:

That that PhD is made up to add more credibility to VT, while also I have seen that VT said that the whole VT project is product of this PhD work. If they are lying that is very bad for a service that offers Swiss like neutralism so credibility lost

There was also mentioned that they are probably not UK based, which they claim they are - another lie and another loosing of credibility

And third - there is a thesis that they are lying about result of particular services so they can scam people of their money. That fact is undermined by JoeB analysis of approximatelly half a million picks from paid services, open boards....

Interesing read, hope conclusion will be made pretty soon, despite I am also 99% that Dr. Phil or whathever he is, is as real as Santa.
azzurini1976 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 28-08-14, 21:34   #21
SportsAdvices
Freshman
 
Join Date: Oct 2013
Posts: 77
SportsAdvices is an unknown quantity at this point
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by JoeB View Post
Out of interest, what is your service, SportsAdvices?
www.betting-advices.com

Thank you for answer.

Kindly Regards, Betting-advices
SportsAdvices is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 28-08-14, 23:34   #22
JoeB
Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: UK
Posts: 775
JoeB is an unknown quantity at this point
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by RedGreenAce View Post
My buddy went to UNLV and he said Prof. Keegan teached there. He doesn't know if he still does. Not sure what's the point. What's the connection of this Prof. Keegan and VerifiedTipsters.com?
This is a man called Fin Keegan.

http://nevada.uloop.com/professors/v...089/Fin-Keegan

His first name is not Neil and he is a professor of English. I very much doubt that he has mentored any Ph.D. students researching scam/fraud tipping services. But thanks for your input.
JoeB is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 28-08-14, 23:43   #23
JoeB
Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: UK
Posts: 775
JoeB is an unknown quantity at this point
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by SportsAdvices View Post
Our site: www.betting-advices.net

Thank you for answer.

Kindly Regards, Betting-advices
Thank you for letting me see that.

I can see clearly that your website is not like some of the ones that might be considered suspicious. Here are some reasons

1) Your first verified month was losing
2) Your monthly tips number is very variable, ranging from 68 to 235 (I'm discounting the first and last month since then are incomplete)
3) Your subscription prices are moderate
4) You joined VerifiedTipsters after your tipping service began
5) You show records on your own websites and some of them predate the first verifed tips
6) All your sports are verified together in one record (presumably it would be a lot more expensive to have them all verified separately)
7) Unfortunately your current overall verified record is a losing one

In the next post I'm now going to describe some services which I think look suspect and give my reasons why. To be clear, I'm presenting circumstantial evidence, I'm not calling anyone a cheat, I'll leave that to others if they want to draw their own conclusions.
JoeB is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 29-08-14, 00:27   #24
JoeB
Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: UK
Posts: 775
JoeB is an unknown quantity at this point
Default

So here are 3 services which I think need looking at.

Europuners
http://www.europunters.com/
Has 10 individual active services
Domain registrar: publicdomainregistry.com

PanosKnowsBest
http://www.panosknowsbest.com/
Has 7 individual active services
Domain registrar: publicdomainregistry.com

Tzogosteam
http://www.tzogosteam.com
Has 12 individual active services (and several more deactivated services)
Domain registrar: enom.com

1) All three operate as multi-tipster portals, with a clear central control over their management. All are verified separately.

2) Every single individual service record (29 in total) is in profit, with weighted average ROI of 110.5%, at average odds almost exactly 2.00 and from 15,558 picks.

3) Not one of these 29 service records shows their own results but refers directly to those on VerifiedTipsters

4) Not one of those service records appears to have results that predate the start of verificaton by VerifiedTipsters. If tipsters come to VT and not the other way round, how probable is that? Of the 247 service records I published in my book, 120 had records that predated my verification.

5) Almost all of the services (with the exception of Europunters John FREQUENT PICKS tips relatively low numbers of tips each month. The average across all 29 services is 16 and the median 11

6) All services have large fees, typically charging 3 figures per month as well as offering subscriptions per pick or number of picks or per several days. Re-read Teddie21's posts in this discussion for why that might be significant.

Now for the best bit.

7) VerifiedTipsters claim that tipsters ask them for verification, not the other way around. If that was true, then a priori it should be expected that the 1st month should on average be no more profitable than the second, third, fourth, fifth etc, months. Over the full records set of records, 69% of months are profitable. Of the 29 services, 28 (or 92%) of them had profitable first verified months. How likely is this to happen by chance if on average these tipsters aggregated together are capable of a 10% yield at odds of 2.00 with 16 picks per month? Assuming such an advantage over the bookmaker and using a quick binomial estimate we could reasonably expect such tipsters to be profitable in approximately 70% of the months they tip in (very close to the actual observed figure of 69%). To put in another way, we could therefore reasonably expect 70% or about 20 of the tipsters to be profitable in the first month. Consequently, the chances of 28 out of 29 being profitable is about 1 in 30,000. There is of course an alternative explanation for how so many tipsters can have such an impressive start to their verification. I'll let you all figure that out.

Why did I include the domain registrars. Well here are the details for VerifiedTipsters:

http://whois.domaintools.com/verifiedtipsters.com

Domain registrar: publicdomainregistry.com

Check the start of this post and you will notice the commonality.

And what about enom.com?

Both http://www.soccer-advice.com/ and http://www.asoccerpicks.com/, two new services being verified this year have the registrar enom.com

Soccer-Advice started with 5 winning months whilst ASoccerPicks has kicked off with 6 out of 6 winners, compared to 7 out of the first 8 for Soccer-Advice.

To reiterate, all this is circumstantial, but it just keeps building and building.

And of course still no word about that Ph.D.
JoeB is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 29-08-14, 00:52   #25
RedGreenAce
Freshman
 
Join Date: May 2014
Posts: 21
RedGreenAce is on a distinguished road
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by JoeB View Post
This is a man called Fin Keegan.

http://nevada.uloop.com/professors/v...089/Fin-Keegan

His first name is not Neil and he is a professor of English. I very much doubt that he has mentored any Ph.D. students researching scam/fraud tipping services. But thanks for your input.
Yes, correct what you say.
RedGreenAce is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 29-08-14, 13:36   #26
TEDDIE21
Senior Member
 
TEDDIE21's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Europe
Posts: 2,556
TEDDIE21 is an unknown quantity at this point
Default

In my opinion, there's more evidence one would need to at least become suspicious. It's nearly impossible to bring more evidence because they wouldn't do silly things when someone watches them. But any responsible punter that buys picks will learn from this thread and hopefully avoid them.

What we could do, is what I wanted to do about one year ago but never had time for it. I would contact all the honest services that still verify their tips with them, and inform them about this thread. I am pretty sure that many of them have no idea about such things. Then it will be up to them if they will further be interested to continue with VT, or terminate their verification immediately.

I think this is the best thing we can do, and when Euro Punters, Panos and Tzogo will be the only services listed on their website, it will be far more easy for the victim-punter to hear the bells ringing.
__________________
Your Asian Handicap Soccer Betting Guide: http://forum.bettingadvice.com/showthread.php?t=91021
TEDDIE21 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 30-08-14, 00:09   #27
JoeB
Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: UK
Posts: 775
JoeB is an unknown quantity at this point
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by TEDDIE21 View Post
I think this is the best thing we can do, and when Euro Punters, Panos and Tzogo will be the only services listed on their website, it will be far more easy for the victim-punter to hear the bells ringing.
If you remove the stats of their tipsters the overall aggregated ROI drops just a little bit to about 105%. I'll leave it to you all to figure out what that might mean about some of the remaining 260 or so tipsters records showing on the VT homepage.

I've presented my ideas about the sorts of things to look for. You're all welcome to go and research for yourselves.

Remember the old adage: if it looks to good to be true, it probably is.
JoeB is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 30-08-14, 08:47   #28
wlodi
Freshman
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Poland
Posts: 110
wlodi is an unknown quantity at this point
Default

Is it possibility to take a responsibility by persons who are responsible for this? Based on what you found it's most likely that they have been scamming people for a few years on a lot of money or JoeB you take care about this already ?
wlodi is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 30-08-14, 12:19   #29
JoeB
Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: UK
Posts: 775
JoeB is an unknown quantity at this point
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by wlodi View Post
Based on what you found it's most likely that they have been scamming people for a few years
You'll have to draw your own conclusions about that. If you use Wayback to see what the website used to look like when it began, and how it evolved, you should be able to form some opinions about this.

Some of you might like to ask VT whether they will make available their whole tips database for analysis, so we can see how each year compares to each other for example. Would be interesting to see if they would agree to public scrutiny of their data. I know I would. If anyone asks for my data, I'll happily provide it, along with all the e-mails from every single tip I've kept (I've only lost a few from the early years 2001 to 2003 when I didn't really know what I was doing and why I was doing it).

As I've said, if there is wrong doing, there's usually a trail and it just depends on whether people what to find it.
JoeB is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 30-08-14, 19:26   #30
TEDDIE21
Senior Member
 
TEDDIE21's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Europe
Posts: 2,556
TEDDIE21 is an unknown quantity at this point
Default

I've sent an email to all the services listed at VT, with the hope that more people realize what's going on.

Let's see how their "business" will work from now on. This part is actually important because they need as many honest services as possible, so that it looked real.
__________________
Your Asian Handicap Soccer Betting Guide: http://forum.bettingadvice.com/showthread.php?t=91021
TEDDIE21 is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Bookmarks

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump



 
Last BA mainsite picks
Updated every 2nd min.

Advertisement




All times are GMT +1. The time now is 10:10.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.7
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.