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Old 09-07-14, 14:54   #1
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Default CgmBet System - a powerful statistical tool

(this thread was allowed by Davy)

I would like to introduce here the project that I have developed in last four years.

Started because of my passion for stats and football, first like a joke - some thinks it is still a joke - then continued due to many requests for improvements from my friends and later from my users.

I do not want to say too much, I think is better to try yourself,

but:

1. If you need a prediction software
2. If you need a machine to think and choose bets for you
3. If you need some things to blame for your betting failures
4. If you think that only terrible bad luck stopped you until now

then my software is not for you. Look for anything else. There are a lot of good software around - just install, 2-3 clicks and you are millionaire.

My software is for those that understood that betting means knowledge and a lot of hard work.

My software allows you to study the following leagues: England 1,2,3,4,5; - Italy 1,2; - Spain 1,2; - Germany 1,2,3; - France 1,2; - Argentina 1,2; - Austria 1,2; - Belgium 1; - Brazil 1,2; - Bulgaria 1; - Croatia 1; - Czech R. 1; - Denmark 1,2; - Finland 1; - Greece 1; - Hungary 1; - Ireland 1; - Japan 1,2; - Netherlands 1,2; - Norway 1,2; - Poland 1; - Portugal 1,2; - Romania 1; - Russia 1; - Scotland 1; - Serbia 1; - Slovakia 1; - Slovenia 1; - Sweden 1,2; - Switzerland 1; - Turkey 1; - Ukraine 1; - Wales 1; - UEFA;
Database contains results starting with 2004 season for the major leagues and starting with 2010 season for the rest. Please do not loose time by searching the database inside the software. I give all for free, just let me know.


The use of the software is absolutely free. You have to download, install, send me your user code and I send you back your registration code. This is only for administrative purposes - for access to my server for updates.

Further, I would like to be 100% honest with you.
There are many users that helped me in the first stages of the project with advices, bug reports, database updates, little donations. I think it was fair to give them a little bit more. So I created so called VIP users and they have few more complex facilities (asked and created with them ).
More then 25% of the features are created following users requests. You also may ask for additional features and if seems useful and interesting in short time I will do that absolutely free. It is my spare time hobby and I am happy to help in any way betting community.

Resuming 95% of the software is free (including database update) and 5% only for VIP users. (their facility do not affect in any way the functionality of the program - just maybe is easier to use some features).

I am very disappointing that this introduction is over the summer season and there are few leagues active. Anyway you may browse the software in order to be ready for the next season.

I think it is not the time to present the software features. Who is interested in statistics over football will try it for sure and then helped to go further with this project.

If you have any questions please just ask. I will answer just one time/day (forum rules)

The link to download is http://www.cgmbet.com
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Old 25-07-14, 11:35   #2
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I managed to update almost all database leagues with the next season fixtures. There are more than 50 leagues with a lot of statistics. Except few features reserved for VIP users (but not affect the software functionality), all is free.

Again, I strongly recommend to not use the software as it is for betting. Of course you all know that betting (with success) is very complex process and my product may offer you some tools to make easier your decision when forced to choose between 300 weekly games and then focus on few.

Remember that I am ready to improve as you wish. A lot of features has been created by users.

The software has a large database and I am willing to share that without problem as it is. I gathered manually a lot of data but still I had most of them free so I think is fair enough. But, please note, in order to export this database with filters (leagues, seasons, results, odds..etc) you need to be among VIP user.
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Old 06-02-15, 12:03   #3
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A lot of brand new features have been added to my software.

1. Save up to nine Game Alerts in order to be highlighted in the UPCOMING section
(Example: Games where home team won 3 games in a row and away team did not score last 3 away games)

2. What would have been the profit for a specific game type (similar ELO and form differences).

and more other new features.

Important: this is not a prediction software. If you look for a machine to bet instead of you do not follow me. This software will help you if you have enough experience to understand that betting is not about "inspiration and good luck" but about hard work and information


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Old 10-02-15, 05:17   #4
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Following some users suggestion I introduced in the UPCOMING section grid new columns. It is about streaks (positive and negative). There are available streaks for won, draw. lost, scored, received, over, under.

Just use the button highlighted.

Of course will follow filters in order to highlight some values.

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Old 04-04-15, 05:03   #5
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Following users requests, few new features has been introduced:

1. Database for USA - Major League Soccer.
2. Shots, shots on target, corners, ball possession, fouls. This option is available only for the main 12 leagues (out of 52).



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Old 19-04-15, 14:02   #6
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Finally I managed to add two very asked features.

1. The odds are now updated every 5 minutes. More than that, a color code will show you the tendency of the odds, like in the picture.




2. It is also available a graphics presentation of the odds movements over time. May be useful when make your decision.

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Old 10-05-15, 06:18   #7
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Finally, I introduced 2 new leagues as few of my Asian friends asked me many times.

China - Super League
South Korea - K league

Database contain only current season for the new leagues. Maybe over summer will complete the database with past seasons.

In order to use efficiently the information in the database I recommend to set the time zone for the software. To do that just go to SETTINGS tab. This way is also possible to see another new feature: the games already played have different color and the games within next 1 hour are highlighted.

Of course, there are maybe few adjustments to make, please report any bugs.

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Old 08-08-15, 06:31   #8
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1. First of all many thanks for those VIP users who provided feed-back, here or on my personal email. It helps me a lot to improve my project.

2. Starting with this season the software has 3 levels:BASIC, ADVANCED and VIP. The only differences between ADVANCED and VIP are the EXPORT function and the ODDS REFRESH every 5 minutes.

3. Every month, starting now, I will release 5 free licenses for BA members

3 ( 1 VIP, 2 ADVANCED ) for all members:
2 ( 2 VIP ) for members with at least 50 posts and at least 2 years account on BA

Just contact me and provide your user name and I give you instructions.



4. Following some users suggestion I improved the STATISTICS section. I added new columns in order to present more detailed data. On the same time I added more data for other 10 leagues: Shots, shots on goal, corners, ball

possession..etc.
Would be very interesting and probably useful to make a correlation between shots on target, ball possession and number of goals..but this will be implemented soon.

The table is presented at LEAGUE or TEAM level, as you like. The program allows you now to select only 1,2,3....or few leagues or teams in order to compare them. Of course, at team level may be selected only home games or only away games...etc.

Not very much to see on the picture because not all leagues started but you may see what it is about.

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Old 12-08-15, 10:44   #9
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I had few free days and I managed to finish what is now one of my favorite feature of the software. Actually the idea came from one VIP user member.

What it is about.
The section GOALS was good but only the graph presented was not enough to help somebody too much, especially in live betting. So the idea was to use the database to see what happens in the past games on different scenarios.

It is possible now to select a league or two teams and to see what happens in the previous similar games in the case it was 1-1 in the 46th minute.
For example I selected Everton (current ELO 1790) vs Tottenham (current ELO 1878) and 1-0 in the 46th minute. I selected "All seasons" in the database and ELO range +/- 75. That means that will be considered all games where home team had ELO between 1715 and 1865 and away team had ELO between 1803 and 1953. The range may be adjusted.

Now, on the right we have a table with all the percent for home, draw, away, over or under 0.5,1.5,2.5 and of course the percent for correct score at half time and full time. Click on every column header to sort the values in order to see what is the bigger percent...etc

On the graph, as you already now are presented how many goals were scored for each minute. As I see,if the score was 1-0 in the 46th, until 60th minute Everton (teams like Everton vs teams like Tottenham) scored more (also in the last 10 minutes)


In my opinion this tool may be used on live betting so the values can be switched to odds instead of percent.

Please be careful I did not say probabilities but percent. This is what happened in the past. It is very very possibly to happen in the future also, but we have to take into account other variables also.

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Old 30-08-15, 08:59   #10
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Following few VIP users requests I added some new features in order to be easier to access the GOALS section. (seems to be one of the favorite)

Now is possible to select the game in the UPCOMING section, click the button (highlighted in the picture) and the GOALS screen is opened directly with the selected teams. No more wasted time.
Also I introduced new buttons in order to adjust finely some parameters





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Old 03-10-15, 07:14   #11
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Finally, the Premier League players database is up to date!


1. Check the players status. Goals scored, minutes played and much more. Just click on the player's name and will see what games played and what he did there.







2. In the Head to head section click on the "Players" tab to see more detailed statistics about each player, considering all the games or only home/away games. Easy to see here what importance has the player for his team.




3. In the Head to head section click on the "Lineups" if you want to drag and drop the players on the field in order to see how will look the next game. Each players is labeled to see easier what important is for the team.


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Old 24-10-15, 21:28   #12
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Following a user request I inserted a new feature. It was a request about the possibility to select only some games in the UPCOMING table and then look closer only to this games.



Now we have a new group called "My games".
In order to add or remove games within this group just RIGHT CLICK on the game you want.


Also it is possible to select "My games" to see just your games.
All the games selected remain highlighted on the database so you if you select "My games" and the appropriate period of time you will see all the games selected over the time.


Of course this feature will be improved. Maybe to have the possibility to track also the type of bet for selected games and then you may look back to see what happened.

P.S. I hope you noticed two more mini-features I inserted last weeks.
1. the "Hide leagues" button. Click it just to hide the leagues tree if you want to see more useful info on the main screen
2. If database is not updated for more than 2 days the button "Update" will be highlighted.


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Old 31-10-15, 06:47   #13
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Again, following some VIP user suggestions I improved a little bit the feature presented last week.


The column "My games" is larger and you may store there what you think to bet on the selected game. For example you store "1XO" - (Home win or draw and over 2.5)


Later on you will select "My Games" filters like in the picture to see only the games that got your attention.


You will continue to study the game to make your best decision or you may see what happened in the game after the result is known.


Please note: in order to add/remove/modify a game from "My Game" list just RIGHT CLICK on the game.


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Old 03-11-15, 17:16   #14
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ollowing few VIP users request, I tried to do something about handicap and also about correct score statistics. Maybe it is not exactly what they expected but it is all it was possible at this moment. Of course I do not exclude further correction and/or suggestions on this matter.

So, we have now two new features:

Handicap.
This list will be activated on the case you select one of the following buttons: WON, DRAW, LOST, NOT WON, NOT DRAW,NOT LOST
At this moment you may include some goals handicap for the home and/or the away team.
All that calculation will be made considering the handicaps applied. For example if the handicap is +1.5 goals for the home team, the actual result 0-1 will be 1.5-1 and of course home team won.




Correct score
The list with the scores will be activated if you select the button "Correct score"
At this moment you may select one or up to five correct scores. In order to add scores just pick up the new score and the list will be completed. If you want to delete the last score inserted just click on the correct scores list.
The software will calculate the percent of games ended with the scores you selected. For example if you select, like in the picture 2-1,1-1, 1-2, all this scores will be considered correct and added to the percent.




It is just finished. Please report any bug or eventually if this affects the old features.
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Old 07-11-15, 07:35   #15
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I added today a requested feature in the UPCOMING section.

As you know, by selecting scored/received buttons you will see the average number of goals scored/received by each team.
Now, you may select too see the number of games (percent) where the team scored/received goals.

In order to see that just click on the "games" label. To return to the previous mode click the "goals" button
Of course is possible to combine both features in order to obtain some interesting information.

For example, in the picture I selected for the home team to highlight where they scored in more than 80% of games played at home and for the away team to highlight where they received more than an average 2 goals/game.

Of course the other settings and filters you may see on the picture.

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Old 08-11-15, 07:29   #16
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As you know, you may find on my tools section an absolutely free Poisson calculator.

If you do not know what is Poisson calculator, in few words,
expresses the probability of a given number of events occurring in a fixed interval of time and/or space if these events occur with a known average rate and independently of the time since the last event.

For the normal people, like us this means to try to calculate the probability to happen 2 goals for Chelsea if they scored an average 1.3 goals / game so far.
Of course this is just another toy, you have to take into account much more information.. but may be useful sometimes. Also please note that this can not be used to find value bets..it has some limitations, especially regarding draw probabilities. Please give a google search to find out more.

So, I linked the Poisson calculator with the UPCOMING section. Just click on the game then click "Poisson calculator" button. The values stored in the home and away columns are transferred to calculator.
To make sense - you must select before "scored goals" then REFRESH.

By linking the calculator with the software you have now the possibility to select different scenarios to calculate the average number of goals scored: all the season, just last 5 or 10 games, full time, half time...etc...etc.



Just click on the game then click "Poisson calculator" button.
Here will be possible to adjust the values in order to see the probabilities calculated based on Poisson distribution for different type of bets.

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Old 13-11-15, 13:48   #17
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As you already know, if you select a game in the UPCOMING table the software will calculate what happened in similar games in the past.
When we talk about similar games we talk about the games where both teams had similar ELO and/or Form coefficients.

You can select ELO and/or Form interval using the buttons you may find on the bottom left corner. Also there you may select if you want to see only the games played on the same league or on the entire database.

At this moment you may see how many similar games have been played, how many won by home team, how many over, under...the eventual profit...etc.

Now, the next step, I have just introduced, is to see the similar games and to see what exactly happened there, if possible. Just click on "odds movement in similar games" and you will see the graph with the odds movement and next to it, a table with all similar games.

I have collected odds just for this season so not all the games have odds stored. To be easier I highlighted the games where the odds history exists.
Now, select an highlighted game and you will see a new graph (with black color) for the selected game.

For example, in the picture, I selected in the main table a Premier League game from last week, I selected the intervals for ELO and Form and I selected to see only the games played on Premier League
(take a look at statistics - 48 similar games - would have been better to lay home...etc)
then clicked on "odds movement in similar games". I found 48 similar games but only 2 with data (as I said - only this season.). I clicked on the first one.

This feature maybe is useful but I think will be very useful when the odds database will be good enough to find similar games with similar odds evolution. May be interesting.


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Old 29-11-15, 17:50   #18
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This is a big step forward for my project.

It is just on testing but with your help will be an extraordinary tool.
What it is about.
As you know, in the GOALS section is possible to select the teams, the minute and the goals scored until then and you will see on the right side what happened in the similar games, considering the same league for the last 5 seasons.
To understand better, similar games means the games between teams where the ELO ratings are within a given range you have selected for both home team and away team.
Now it is possible to select a live game! Just REFRESH the live scores (you can do that once in a minute) then pick the game you want.
All data are transferred automatically to the old controls and the table is completed with the new data.

I admit that always was hard to understand this section and what the data means.
Let-s take an example. I selected EIBAR - REAL MADRID 0-0 in the 30th minute

The graph, think is clear. It represents the number of goals scored in similar games by the home team (red) and away team (blue)
Speaking about similar games, you see "Total number of games with data 32/53".
That means:
1. there are 53 games in the last 5 seasons where home team had ELO as EIBAR (+/- 75) and away team had ELO as REAL MADRID (+/- 75) AND 0-0 IN THE 30th MINUTE
but
2. only 32 games out of 53 have data recorded. The database does not contain data about goal minutes for the rest of 21 games.
So all results are calculated based on 32 games. You may find also situations where will be much more relevant past games.
How you read the table on the right:
Full Time column : the percentages of the games (see 1.) finished Home win, Draw or Away win, Over, Under, ...correct score. You may see that 21.88 % finished Under 2.5 and 78.13 % finished Over 2.5, 21.88 % finished 0-0 ...etc
Half Time column: the same thing but for the first 45 minutes. You may see for example that all games were Under 2.5 at half time. No games where was scored 3 goals in the remaining 15 minutes.
Minute columns: the same thing but considering the minute written on the column header. Let-s take 60 minutes column. How we read this.
if the score is 0-0 in the 30th minute, the percentages of games where home win at 60 minute is 18.75, draw is 53.13 and away win is 28.13....etc . Also you may notice that 50% of the games where still 0-0 in the 60th minutes.
I am sure you you have a lot of questions and maybe suggestions how and where to use LIVE SCORE
And please do not forget it is still under testing so may be some bugs there. Please be patient.....
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Old 12-12-15, 07:13   #19
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Unfortunately all licenses for this months have been released.

But, after all, because this month is a special month and this is special forum, only for this month are available more 5 VIP licenses. 3 of them are reserved for users for at least 1 year activity on the forum.

Just write here then after my confirmation via private email send your user code using the form on my web page, CONTACT section.

Now, I would like to introduce a new feature: "Suggestions for today"

As I said many times, I will never release tips or "100% sure bets"

My software will help you a lot if pay attention and make a deep assessment for each game or bet involved.

But,
I decided today to give a little help for those that are completely undecided. You will find on the Home page of the software a new button where to find some suggestions for every day, if any. The conditions to be shown as "suggestion" are very severe so, for sure, not to many games will be presented and of course not every day.

Also, please be aware. The suggestions are generated automatically so you must look closer, study head to head, read the latest information about the teams involved..etc then make your own decision.

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Old 16-01-16, 10:04   #20
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Now, following few VIP users suggestions, I improved a little bit the UPCOMING section, the correct score feature. There is the possibility now to save your preferred correct scores list, then load it when needed. The lists (separately for home and away teams) are available also after the software restart. Personally I do not like to play correct score but it seems to be useful for some guys.




Another useful button has been included in TABLES section in order to see easier the games where the teams got or lost important ELO points. Of course this may be useful to see immediately the good or bad games. In the example I click Liverpool and we may see that Liverpool is not very stable away, almost every game ended with an unexpected result, positive or negative. Good to know.

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Old 27-02-16, 07:25   #21
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On the 1st of March my project celebrates 5 years. Of course I am very happy, so starting now I offer all my database for free. I also obtained more than 75% percent free so maybe it seems not very generous offer.

In order to fix that, all is offered via my software's EXPORT feature. I remember that all the VIP features are active for the first 7 days so this feature can be used without any restriction.

The EXPORT feature allow you to export to XLS or CSV format all the leagues, results, odds, statistics ....everything I have.

Of course, like in the picture you may choose to export only selections: different seasons, different leagues, different columns ....you are free to combine what you want in order to meet your project requests.

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Old 05-03-16, 11:48   #22
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Just for symmetry I introduced the possibility to consult the "Accumulator of the day" archive.

Today will find accumulator number 5. It is a little bit "bigger" - 6 games, total odd around 23

I will introduce soon the probability to win. Of course the probability is very small actually but even I do not recommend at all accumulators they are funny if you play 1 unit each.

Following your requests I made some improvements on the UPCOMING menu. It is possible now to save your parameters in up to 9 sets. No more need to manually modify the parameters.

The same thing I did with the correct scores. You might save up to 9 sets of correct scores.



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Old 09-03-16, 09:30   #23
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The "My games" feature has success and many users asked for few important improvements.

In order to access this feature "right click" on the game in the UPCOMING or RATING tables. This will allow you to store some data about games you will focus a little bit later as the kick-off is coming.

I extended the types of bet. It is possible now to store Asian Handicap and more goal lines.

Also, very important - it is possible to store some notes about the game in order to remember you some things.

Due to lack of space there are few notations but I hope they are clear enough. H - Home, D - Draw, A - Away...etc
If there is not stores a bet but just a note (memo), in the corresponding column will appear just "M". This way you will know that stored some thought there.

The next update will be longer so please be patient.
Also, please let me know if something goes wrong with this new features.


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Old 31-03-16, 21:27   #24
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Following a user suggestion, I would like to introduce a new feature. It is under development and of course I am open to any suggestion to improve.

What it is about. What was the performances for a specific team against top 5 teams on the table?

Under TABLES section it is a new container, on the bottom side, where you can set a new filter. You can set the places for the teams opponents.
For example if you select places between 1 and 5, then will be considered only the games where the opponent was AT THE GAME MOMENT on the place between 1 and 5.

If the venue is set as "home games" then the places will be considering for the AWAY table for each opponent.
If the venue is set as "away games" then the places will be considering for the HOME table for each opponent.

I hope it makes sense

Please see the picture below. If select a team you will see on the right side only the filtered games.

As I said it is under construction , so if notice some unexpected behavior please contact me

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Old 13-09-16, 10:46   #25
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Finally I managed to add this feature back.

In order to have updated odds just go to SETTINGS and select for points 4 and 5 other option than the first one. The point 5 is referring to the REFRESH ODDS buttons on the programs . One is in the UPCOMING and the other is in the RATING section.



Now, at program start-up, your program will need few more seconds - maybe more seconds on busy week-ends - in order to update the odds.
The update interval is good enough for a regular player.
Now, when you are in the UPCOMING section you may click from time to time REFRESH ODDS button. The odds will be refreshed and colored based on their tendency, like in the picture.


If you would like to see closer how the odds evolved just click ODDS MOVEMENTS button, then select the market you want to see or odds movement button to see exactly the times when odds changed


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Old 21-09-16, 19:02   #26
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Few days ago I received a suggestion from Johann regarding UPCOMING section.

As you know there are two columns with calculated values depending on the filters you set - games won, lost, goals scored, received....etc.
This is good but would be much better to compare the values with some reference values, at least within the same league.

Following this, I added two more columns where are calculated the differences between the team values and the average values for the league.
The result is presented as percent from the average value.

For example

23 means "the value is 23% bigger than average value for the same league on the same conditions "

-45 means "the value is 45% smaller than average value for the same league on the same conditions "

This will be extremely useful if we are looking for teams or games where one team or both are far away from the average values.





Now, the values are highlighted with green (good) or red (bad). The values where the values are highlighted or not are set in the SETTINGS section.





Of course, as usual, may be some bugs or unexpected results. Please report them and this feature will be improved because I think it is very important
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Old 23-09-16, 08:28   #27
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A "little bit" improvement for the last feature presented.
In the average columns it is possible now to select what you want to see

1. The percent over/under average value
or
2. The average value itself.

Just select it from SETTINGS, like in the picture.

Also, please note the observations 1,2 and 3. There are some limitation in using this features when select last 5 or last 10 games.


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Old 08-10-16, 05:26   #28
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Following few users requests I added two small features that I hope will prove to be useful:

1. Backup & Restore

This can be used after a new installation to restore your previous configuration.
In order to Backup or Restore your files go to SETTINGS then BACKUP & RESTORE.
This will save your settings, my games, my teams, alerts, ...I hope I did not miss anything good to save. Of course if you will notice some bugs or have some new ideas please let me know






2. I don-t want leagues.
Some users asked for the option to eliminate some league from database.
This may be good as soon as the software will be a little bit faster if the database is smaller.
How it works: go to SETTINGS then MY LEAGUES and select the leagues you do not want to appear in any table or calculation.
Please be aware:
a. The changes take effect just after the software restart
b. The deleted leagues can be restored only if you eliminate them from list then update the database with the latest version. (this may happen once a day, every morning)

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Old 20-10-16, 13:49   #29
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One VIP user asked me few days ago to do something in order to make easier the UPCOMING export and to help those will use the results for their own projects.


It is possible now, when you click EXPORT button, to select (then sort) what columns would you want to export and appear in your EXCEL files. Also you can set the column's order in the exported file.



It is just Beta version so please be aware that there are possible errors on unexpected results. Please report any bug and I will try to correct as soon as possible.


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Old 22-10-16, 10:57   #30
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A new small but useful feature requested by a VIP user

When select to see STATISTICS in the TABLES section you may see now highlighted "Average team" values for goals scored, received, correct score, HT/FT....and more.


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