Tour de France-Stage10:Cambo-les-Bains- Pau 193 km-12/07/06

[Georgel69]

Stage details :

Mountain passes & Hills
Km 50 - Col d'Osquich - 6.0 km climb to 5.3 % - 3 Category
Km 101.5 - Col de Soudet (D.113-D.132) - 14.7 km climb to 7.3 % - H Category
Km 148 - Col de Marie-Blanque - 9.3 km climb to 7.7 % - 1 Category

http://www.cyclingnews.com/road/2006...tages/tour0610

Let the games begin! The first real climbing starts today at Le Tour and with the long Col du Soudet and the steep Col de Marie Blanque on le menu, there should be the first real selection at this years Tour, but with the summit of Marie Blanque 45km from Pau :!:

[Georgel69]

Odds from Unibet :!: :

Head2Head

12:25 Azevedo, J - Mazzolen 1.82 1.82

12:25 Klöden, A - Landis, F 1.82 1.82

12:25 Mayo, I - Simoni, G 1.57 2.20

12:25 Moreau, C - Menchov, D 1.75 1.90

12:25 Salmon, B - Vasseur, C 1.80 1.85

12:25 Schleck, F - Sinkewitz, P 1.82 1.82

12:25 Weening, P - Lövkvist, T 1.75 1.90
............................

Tour de France - 10° stage

Winner Placed (1- 3)
Mayo, I 12.00 4.00
Evans, C 12.00 4.00
Moreau, C 12.00 4.00
Rasmussen, M 13.00 4.25
Hincapie, G 13.00 4.25
Savoldelli, P 15.00 4.50
Simoni, G 15.00 4.50
Rujano Guillen, J 17.00 5.00
Garzelli, S 17.00 5.00
Cunego, D 18.00 6.00
Pereiro Sio, O 18.00 6.00
Menchov, D 20.00 6.50
Landis, F 20.00 6.50
Sastre, C 20.00 6.50
Klöden, A 20.00 6.50
Sinkewitz, P 22.00 7.00
Schleck, F 22.00 7.00
Voigt, J 25.00 8.00
Popovych, Y 25.00 8.00
Azevedo, J 25.00 8.00
Mazzoleni, Eddy 25.00 8.00
Wegmann. F 25.00 8.00
Weening, P 25.00 8.00
Leipheimer, L 30.00 10.00
Rogers, M 30.00 10.00
Boogerd, M 30.00 10.00
Totschnig, G 35.00 11.00
Pineau, J 35.00 11.00
Caucchioli, P 35.00 11.00
Karpets, V 40.00 12.00
Garate, J M 40.00 12.00
Honchar, S 50.00 14.00
Chavanel, Sylvain 60.00 16.00
Voeckler, T 75.00 25.00
Lövkvist, T 75.00 25.00
Merckx, A 75.00 25.00
Zabriskie, D 75.00 25.00
Moncoutie, D 75.00 25.00

So Mayo favourite of tomorow stage :roll: - This is a joke Imo - this man is a shadow of the past he will die in the mounties like in the last two tours
Because the High category climed is at Km 101.5 Col du Soudet and then the pluton can regroup back until the stage will be finish I cannot see a clear winner tomorow :wink:
Maybe Rasmussen can escape on Km 148 Col de Marie Blanque where we will have the last climb of the day . So I'll try 13.00 on him :!:

[gricko]

Originally Posted by Georgel69

Odds from Unibet :!: :

So Mayo favourite of tomorow stage :roll: - This is a joke Imo - this man is a shadow of the past he will die in the mounties like in the last two tours
Because the High category climed is at Km 101.5 Col du Soudet and then the pluton can regroup back until the stage will be finish I cannot see a clear winner tomorow :wink:
Maybe Rasmussen can escape on Km 148 Col de Marie Blanque where we will have the last climb of the day . So I'll try 13.00 on him :!:

Agree that Mayo is not in shape he was few years ago, but if you have followed Dauphine-Libere you could see that he is still dangereous in the mountains.He won a mountain stage and mountains competiotion.
He lost much time in TT on Saturday, so peleton might let him go if he trise to attack, but I dont see hime as a favo either.

Maybe Pereiro is a good choice. I still can remeber his aggresive ride last year. He won the stage to Pau, although the second climb on this stage was the first on last years.

[Tsuni]

13 on Michael Rasmussen is a really bad deal!

First of all the prize is way below what you can get other places, and second of all I don't see him winning with a 40 km flat section at the end. Everybody knows what he is capable of, so he will not get a gap as last year. Also remember that Menchov is the captain on the Rabobank team, and he is top priority at this point.

GL

[medaillon]

Yess,Tsuni is Right! Rabobank will fully play the card Mentjov so i dont think Rasmussen will try anything tomorrow.

[bluesman-]

The spanish riders will probadly attack tomorrow, coz on thursday they will arrive Spain, today they`ll stop near the border to spain.

My choice will be like Georgel69 Rasmussen (conf. 1/10, odds until 21!), last year he won the first step in the hills and he said in an interview, he`s an anarchist, many things can happen in the hills.

On thursday I expect first selection, because (is written above) the last 40 km are flat today.

bluesman

[Georgel69]

Originally Posted by bluesman-

The spanish riders will probadly attack tomorrow, coz on thursday they will arrive Spain, today they`ll stop near the border to spain.

My choice will be like Georgel69 Rasmussen (conf. 1/10, odds until 21!), last year he won the first step in the hills and he said in an interview, he`s an anarchist, many things can happen in the hills.

On thursday I expect first selection, because (is written above) the last 40 km are flat today.

bluesman

Another thing that have to be said is that at the moment Rasmussen is at
07' 40" to the yellow jersey HONCHAR Serhiy :!: So this is another aspect that say that he will attack and take abig adnatage and try to remain there maybe forming a group with some spanish rider or :roll: :?: ....Menchev,Landis,Hincapie,Azevedo can be also in that group So U can try them small stakes in 1-3 place :wink:

Good Luck and follow the Live Reports on www.letour.com and the Live transmision on EuroSport starting 12.10 C.E.T
Cheers 8) :lol:

[bufe]

Press reads:
" Many figure the favorites will be watching each other on this first day (of climbs) and according to Ludwig, the T-Mobile team is in no hurry to force the pace.
'We can wait for attacks. You know, in years past, Armstrong was often in yellow or near yellow going into the mountains so it was up to us to attack. But now we can wait. It's a good situation for us '
..."

...Why I do NOT believe this preview?...

[Tsuni]

Originally Posted by Georgel69

Another thing that have to be said is that at the moment Rasmussen is at
07' 40" to the yellow jersey HONCHAR Serhiy :!: So this is another aspect that say that he will attack and take abig adnatage and try to remain there maybe forming a group with some spanish rider or :roll: :?: ....Menchev,Landis,Hincapie,Azevedo can be also in that group So U can try them small stakes in 1-3 place :wink:

Good Luck and follow the Live Reports on www.letour.com and the Live transmision on EuroSport starting 12.10 C.E.T
Cheers 8) :lol:

Menchov and Landis?
That is two of the biggest favourites for the victory, and they will not be allowed to escape.

Rasmussen is 7'40 back, but as I said the other riders know who he is. So he will not be allowed to gain a big advantage!

If the peloton doesn't ride too fast, riders as Hushovd, Zabel and Freire may be able to join on the last 40 km's and be part of a sprint.
An early breakaway could also be an option, as well as a sprint with riders as Hincapie, Garzelli, Evans and Cunego battling for the win.

Enjoy the stage!

[matmax23]

Distance after last climb is very long (42 km) and is very flat for mountains condition, so I expekt group of 20-40 strongest riders on the finish line. If it was a descend (like stage 11th in Briancon last year) then it would be easier to go alone then in a bigger group (like Vino and Botero last year), but on very flat last 25 km, power of the group should be much higher than exhausted attackers. I expect all Telekom riders in that group and I have no doubt they will be able to run very fast.

So my main aim for today was to find some good matchups. Some good climbers loves such "small group finishes" and usually gets top 10, some prefers to stay at the back of such group.

Moreau - Menchov 1,75 Unibet or
Moreau - Karpets 1,80 Bet Butler

Popovych - Totschnig 1,70 Unibet/Expekt or
Karpets - Totschnig1,82 Pinnacle or
Sastre - Totschnig 2,05 Bet24

Mayo - Simoni 2,2 Unibet
Landis - Kloeden 2,02 BAW (2,10 in WilliamHill !!! when others usually have it 50-50. Williiam William....)

Sastre - Mazzoleni 2,05 BetButler

And some matchups when I expekt loser to be in 2 or 3 group.
Rasmussen - Hincapie 1,85 Betsson
Halgand - Chavanel 1,83 Ladbrokes
Le Mevel - Fedrigo 1,80 Expekt
Rous - Grivko 1,80 Expekt

Mazzoleni to finish in top 3 - 16,00 in BAW is very valuable option here. As for sure he is one of the best sprinters amongst climbers.


Waiting to see comments, especially from Tsuni The Master

[bufe]

though I am not a master - I can ride a bike, that's all :wink: - but Landis and Kloeden should go through the line head by head this stage: toss of coin to me...

[matmax23]

Originally Posted by bufe

though I am not a master - I can ride a bike, that's all :wink: - but Landis and Kloeden should go through the line head by head this stage: toss of coin to me...

If it is a toss of coin everything above 2,00 has its value!
That is why I mentioned about this bet.
Most of bookies has it exactly as toss of coin 50-50 (like 1,85-1,85), so no value here, but odds above 2,00 are a bit valuable.

[matmax23]

Originally Posted by matmax23

If it is a toss of coin everything above 2,00 has its value!
That is why I mentioned about this bet.
Most of bookies has it exactly as toss of coin 50-50 (like 1,85-1,85), so no value here, but odds above 2,00 are a bit valuable.

Bufe you were right I should have skipped this matchup. So now you are my master no.2 (I didn't ride a bike for couple of years, but I think I still could as you :wink:
However even with that mistake and huge dissapointment from Mazzoleni and a bit surprising final - it was still very profitable day