Snooker, China Open

Dimitar88 · 27-03-12, 09:23

Ding Junhui - Ben Woollaston
Pick: Ding -2.5 frames
Odds: 2.10 @ bet365
Stake: 5/10

Match from the first round in the China Open. The format of the tournament is that in this first round the first player, who reaches five frames is going through the next round.

Ding Junhui is in great shape since Ferbruary. The Chinese won the Welsh Open between 13-19 February and just six days ago won also the Championship league after 3:1 against Judd Trump in the final. The season didn't start well for Ding and since July 2011 he didn't do anything good until the end of the year. He lost in the first round in the Shanghai Masters, lost in the quarterfinals in the UK Championship against the winner Neil Robertson and also lost in the first round of the German Masters. But now in the last couple of months the Chinese is showing great form and in this home tournament he'll for sure try to make everything possible to win the trophy for the second time (he won here in 2005). Also this is the last tournament before the World Championship at the end of April, so he got into great form just on time.

His opponent Ben Woollaston is number 52 in the world and this will be his first big tournament of the season. Before that Woollaston got eliminated in the qualifies for Shanghai Masters, UK Championships, German Masters and Welsh Open.

The two players played against each other just ten days ago in the PTC finals, where Ding won by 4:2 frames.

The only advantage here for Woollaston can be that he already played four qualification rounds here, but this is the home tournament for Ding, so he should feel good enough, even in his first game.

As I said Ding finished his last tournament just six days ago and today he would try to beat his opponent as quick as possible, because in just two days (29 March) is his game from the second round (if he make it of course) against Mark Selby, who is maybe the player, against which Ding has the most amount of defeats in the last years.

So I expect big and easy win for Ding here with at least three frames difference, or in other words, I don't expect Woollaston to get more than two frames in this game.

Also Trump -2.5 @ 1.66 worth a try from today in my opinion (again 5/10)

Ayon · 27-03-12, 13:05

Great post. In my opinion today we can see good matches, expecially i think that Lee can defeat Ford, Ding can defeat Woollaston and Trump can beat easy Jimmy White.

I've just more doubts on the win of Dott who is rightly favourite but i expect not simple match for him.

Alex Lee · 27-03-12, 14:50

Bets lost but agree with great post, Woollaston done nothing special, no high break and even made many mistakes, but Ding was totally collapsed, he still facing hugh pressure problem for playing at home.

Trump pick was pure unlucky, he should easy won by 5:2, but unbelievable missed a easy blue in decisive time of seventh frame, I have no word.

Ayon · 27-03-12, 15:53

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ayon

Great post. In my opinion today we can see good matches, expecially i think that Lee can defeat Ford, Ding can defeat Woollaston and Trump can beat easy Jimmy White.

I've just more doubts on the win of Dott who is rightly favourite but i expect not simple match for him.

All picks with low odd but all won.

Alex Lee · 27-03-12, 15:57

p.s. Wow! Ding fight back from 0:4 to 5:4, really amazing, just like Ronnie O'Sullivan fought back to beat Andrew Higginson in German Masters, and then won the title. Now I am very optimistic about his chance in this tournament. His handicap bet lost, but I will support him in next round.

blackcat14 · 27-03-12, 16:00

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ayon

All picks with low odd but all won.

Amazing come back from Ding. I had him, Lee, Trump, Maguire and Selby in a combo, decent odds.

Looking forward to round 2 matches.

Dimitar88 · 27-03-12, 17:10

Ding is doing such things in the first round really often, but I was quite sure he won't do it today at his home tournament ... well he proved me wrong ...

I took another bet on him when he was 0:3 down and almost covered the first bet, but this mistake by Trump really pissed me off ...

However bad day and both picks lost, sorry for that ...

As I understood Selby is having a flu or something, so a bet for Ding in two days time will be a very good option most probably ...

Ayon · 27-03-12, 18:12

For tomorrow i like:

Allen on Walden or Allen -1,5

Higgins on McLeod (for combo)

Williams on Long (for combo)

O'Sullivan on Campbell (for combo)

Carter on Dale

Allen is hot in this period and have win his first television tournament recently. Higgins-Williams-O'Sullivan are all rightly favourite (but the presence of Ronnie is in doubt for tomorrow, he have played only few times chinese masters). Carter not is in good period and not have big trust (is in doubt his presence for tomorrow, phisical problem), but i don't like so much Dale, good player but with not good calm and solidity in hard situations.

Ayon · 28-03-12, 16:07

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ayon

For tomorrow i like:

Allen on Walden or Allen -1,5

Higgins on McLeod (for combo)

Williams on Long (for combo)

O'Sullivan on Campbell (for combo)

Carter on Dale

Allen very bad, all others good but with Ronnie not in great form and good match for Carter. For round 3 attention at Ning, very good performance today against Murphy.

Ayon · 28-03-12, 22:20

For tomorrow i like:

Lee on Dott

Trump on Bingham or Trump -1,5

Ning +1,5

I think that Lee is in better form and have very good snooker in this period. Trump is clearly the favourite and i think that he can win with a result like 5-2/5-3, so i take also the handicap. At least a bet that i want try because Ning have played very well in this tournament and yesterday have defeat good player as Murphy for 5-2 with a great snooker. Carter have win 5-4 against Dale but in last frame Dale have wrong an important ball and Carter have close the match. So i take an handicap on Ning.

Dimitar88 · 29-03-12, 09:07

Robertson - Hendry
Pick: Robertson -1.5 frames
Odds: 1.72 @ bet365
Stake: 6/10

Hendry is my favorite player, but it's really hard for him to keep a good level in two or more games in a row, especially in format like best of nine or more. He won 5:4 against Gould in the first round, but made a lot of mistakes, which Robertson will take advantage from for sure. The last big win for Hendry was exactly against Robertson in the first round of the Welsh Open, when he beat him 4:1, but just two days later he lost with 0:4 against Mark Allen and got eliminated.

Robertson on other side really like this bigger format and in most of this games he is winning with a difference. In the Shanghai Masters for example he won 5:1, 5:2, 5:2 (against Higgins in the last game), before losing in the semis against Williams. In the UK Championship he won 6:1, 6:3, 6:2, before losing against Trump in the semifinal again. In January he won the Masters with victories against big players like Allen, Williams, Trump and Murphy and results 6:3, 6:4, 6:3, 10:6.

The two players met four times this season:
Neil Robertson 6:3 Stephen Hendry
Neil Robertson 3:1 Stephen Hendry
Neil Robertson 1:4 Stephen Hendry
Neil Robertson 5:3 Stephen Hendry

I will also play Selby - Ding over 7.5 frames, but this option is not available on bet365 yet, so will have to wait in the live section...

blackcat14 · 29-03-12, 12:29

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dimitar88

I will also play Selby - Ding over 7.5 frames, but this option is not available on bet365 yet, so will have to wait in the live section...

Selby withdraws with neck injury.

Mephistophel · 29-03-12, 12:32

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dimitar88

I will also play Selby - Ding over 7.5 frames, but this option is not available on bet365 yet, so will have to wait in the live section...

Ding Junhui reached the quarter-finals of the China Open without potting a ball after Mark Selby was forced to withdraw from the Beijing tournament due to a neck injury.

Ayon · 29-03-12, 14:56

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ayon

For tomorrow i like:

Lee on Dott

Trump on Bingham or Trump -1,5

Ning +1,5

Well Lee and Trump, very bad young chinese Ning who play very bad today against good Carter. But good day

tkt · 29-03-12, 15:17

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ayon

Well Lee and Trump, very bad young chinese Ning who play very bad today against good Carter. But good day

it is like in tennis if in ATP someone beats world #1, then next day he can loose to anyone IMO

Dimitar88 · 29-03-12, 19:08

Ding - Carter
Pick: Ding -1.5
Odds: 1.80 @ bet365
Stake: 6/10

I already wrote what I think of Ding, he is a great player and is also since 2012 is in great shape. I hope that the incredible comeback against Wollaston and the day more for break because of the walkover of Selby will have positive effect on the Chinese.

Captain Carter on other side is having an awful season and it's very possible that even this will be his last season in the professional tour, which is too bad. His result in the tournaments this year just shows either the lack of motivation, or just the bad form for him (I didn't see him in a long time).
Australian Open - out in the first round (against number 23 Marcus Cambell)
Shanghai Masters - out in the first round (against number 25 Mark King)
UK Championship - out in the second round (against number 12 Mark Allen)
Masters - out in the first round (against number 10 Graeme Dott)
Welsh Open - out in the first round (against number 43 Steve Davis)
German Masters - out in the first round (against number 27 Joe Perry)

Here in China he defeated Dominic Dale (number 25) in the first round with 5:4 and the young Chinese Lu Ning with 5:1 in the second, but I just can't see him making something good against Ding tomorrow.

Ayon · 29-03-12, 20:01

For tomorrow i like:

Trump on Lee

O'Sullivan on Maguire

And then i want take a bet on the winner of this tournament:

Trump to win China Open @4,50

In my opinion Trump is better player in this moment and have played well in his matches. Tomorrow play against Lee and can win the match. Ipotetically in semifinal can fight against Ronnie, who have defeat many times in last periods. So for tomorrow i take, obviously, a win of Judd and also i take a win of Ronnie because he is clearly better player in the match against Maguire. Then Maguire play often bad against big players and i think that Ronnie can have little motivation to arrive in semifinal against Trump (very beautiful match).

justneffest · 30-03-12, 07:29

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ayon

For tomorrow i like:

Trump on Lee

O'Sullivan on Maguire

And then i want take a bet on the winner of this tournament:

Trump to win China Open @4,50

In my opinion Trump is better player in this moment and have played well in his matches. Tomorrow play against Lee and can win the match. Ipotetically in semifinal can fight against Ronnie, who have defeat many times in last periods. So for tomorrow i take, obviously, a win of Judd and also i take a win of Ronnie because he is clearly better player in the match against Maguire. Then Maguire play often bad against big players and i think that Ronnie can have little motivation to arrive in semifinal against Trump (very beautiful match).

O'Sullivan -1.5 ?
what's your stake on these 2 games.?

Ayon · 30-03-12, 12:14

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ayon

For tomorrow i like:

Trump on Lee

O'Sullivan on Maguire

And then i want take a bet on the winner of this tournament:

Trump to win China Open @4,50

Three bad choices.

Ayon · 30-03-12, 22:15

For semifinal, both on Bet365:

Lee on Maguire @1,90 stake 7

Ebdon on Ding @3,20 stake 2

Second choice is very hard pick because Ding have win 11 of 13 preview matches, but Ebdon have played good tournament and is a player very smart with good defensive game. Ding is clearly the favourite but in this sport can happens that the favourite can suffer and the preassure to play at home can be another problem for Ding.

In first match, instead, i take with big confidence Lee who have played great tournament and have defeat easly Trump. Maguire have surprised me in this tournament but i think that Lee have better choices for tomorrow.

blackcat14 · 31-03-12, 00:04

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ayon

For semifinal, both on Bet365:

Lee on Maguire @1,90 stake 7

Ebdon on Ding @3,20 stake 2

Second choice is very hard pick because Ding have win 11 of 13 preview matches, but Ebdon have played good tournament and is a player very smart with good defensive game. Ding is clearly the favourite but in this sport can happens that the favourite can suffer and the preassure to play at home can be another problem for Ding.

In first match, instead, i take with big confidence Lee who have played great tournament and have defeat easly Trump. Maguire have surprised me in this tournament but i think that Lee have better choices for tomorrow.

I agree with your picks. Ding would be clear favorite if they`d have met in the 1st round but remember that Ebdon eliminated Higgins and Robertson(the last two world champions) while the chinese met weaker opponents and struggled in the 1st match and well he`s known for being emotionally unstable. About the other match,I`ve always considered Maguire a better player than Lee, but the former is great shape and in this year he played a final and won a tournament defeating players like Robertson, Selby and Trump.

Ayon · 31-03-12, 17:07

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ayon

For semifinal, both on Bet365:

Lee on Maguire @1,90 stake 7

Ebdon on Ding @3,20 stake 2

Very bad Lee who not play against Maguire and loss for 6-2

Good intuition on Ebdon

Ding not have personality for play this games without fear.