Adriatic basketball league - Round 10 (02-04.12.2011.)

Archibald · 01-12-11, 14:17

Buducnost - Partizan - 04.12.2011; 17:00

Well, sorry for an early posted thread but IMO this bet should be taked now because odds probably will go down massive.

Buducnost is 5-4 in this year competition, but at home they are 4-1 and only team that beat Buducnost in Podgorica was full-strenghten Maccabi Tel-Aviv. In all other home games this season Buducnost took all points with mostly easy scores ... +16 against Cibona, +4 against Krka, +25 against Turow (na eurocup), + 15 against Crvena Zvezda and +18 against Helios Domzale.

This game is very important for Buducnost because they are on bad run of 3 straight defeats (all away games). they will have full squad for this game including NBA center Nikola Vucevic which is their best player. Buducnost have made agreement with 76-ers that Vucevic that Vucevic can play against Partizan and Dexia Mons in Eurocup before his trip to USA.

On the other side Partizan didn't impressed me a lot lately. They grab very hard win away in Siroki, and won in Milano against Armani tnx to cretenism of home players which dropped +21 in last 8 minuts of the game. Partizan players wasn't nothing special then, but it was really miraculously what kind of silly mistakes was maded by Milano players. Partizan also lost to Efes in euroleague, and to Zlatorog in ABA league. In last round they won easily at home against Hemofarm +22 but that was pretty expected because Hemofarm sucks away and also isn't on the simmilar level as Partizan.

Partizan will face some huge problems in this game. This will be their first game without their star center and team leader Nikola Pekovic. Milan Macvan still don't have right to play in ABA league competition till new year, and Acie Law status is under big question because he obvious have big problems with his back, but doctors do anything they can to prepare him for Maccabi game this night. If he will play against Maccabi his back-problems may become much worst and his back-ups are just crappy players. Also, I really don't se Milosavljevic, Lucic and Law (if he will play) as adequate quality players for Partizan because they are far away from quality of players that covered same positions in team in earlier seasons.

Budu***263;nost have pretty strong first line-up with great center Vucevic, PG Anderson which is their 2nd best player, and very expirienced duo Vitkovac and Krstovic. 5th man is montenegran national team player Popovic on forward position.

It's true that Partizand won last 4 games in Podgorica, but all of them were very tight with score difference between 4 and 7 points. Last season Partizan won here 65-61, but Buducnost won in Belgrade with 80-79. Also on final tournament of last year competition Partizan took very hard win against Buducnost 62:58.

IMO Buducnost have great opportunity in this game to break 4 years long losing streak in home games against Partizan under all of this circumstances. Odds on home team are just great at the moment.

PICK: Buducnost ML @ 2,75 6/10 (Stan James bookie)

BaskeT_Expert · 01-12-11, 15:03

yehe..if Pekovic not play is big bet..Buducnost are very good team
tnx and GL

lopster · 01-12-11, 15:14

...only funny bookmakers are out with odds...stan james and all the other idi..

bookies know, what`s going on the with all the NBA players in europe. they have already included the fact in the odds..no worth to be so excited 3 days before, because of possibly massiv dropping odds...and if u find it really value and be so convinced, why do u only place 6/10...

Archibald · 01-12-11, 15:49

Quote:

Originally Posted by hallo-erstmal

...only funny bookmakers are out with odds...stan james and all the other idi..

Yeah, that's the point; because I really don't expect more than 2,10-2,15 for the same bet at saturday when all bookies will have this game on their betting list

[QUOTE=hallo-erstmal;1735364
bookies know, what`s going on the with all the NBA players in europe. they have already included the fact in the odds..no worth to be so excited 3 days before, because of possibly massiv dropping odds...and if u find it really value and be so convinced, why do u only place 6/10...[/QUOTE]

I really don't care if they know or they don't know because I see big value bet on this one at this odds and I have enough arguments and reasons why I took this bet so early.

My bet is "only" 6/10 because 90% of my bets are staked with 6/10 ... In case that there is possibility to bet on buducnost+5,5 (current odds suggesting that handicap margina should be 5,5 at the moment) today; my stake for sure would be higher, but on ML option I went with usual 6/10.

The Gravedigger · 01-12-11, 23:47

Quote:

Originally Posted by Archibald

Yeah, that's the point; because I really don't expect more than 2,10-2,15 for the same bet at saturday when all bookies will have this game on their betting list

I really don't care if they know or they don't know because I see big value bet on this one at this odds and I have enough arguments and reasons why I took this bet so early.

My bet is "only" 6/10 because 90% of my bets are staked with 6/10 ... In case that there is possibility to bet on buducnost+5,5 (current odds suggesting that handicap margina should be 5,5 at the moment) today; my stake for sure would be higher, but on ML option I went with usual 6/10.

http://www.mondo.rs/s226051/Sport/Ko...uducnosti.html

maybe not so smart to take it sooo early...

alan ford · 02-12-11, 13:47

Pekovic told yesterday on TV, that he will play vs Buducnost.

pinballmad · 02-12-11, 14:35

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Gravedigger

http://www.mondo.rs/s226051/Sport/Ko...uducnosti.html

maybe not so smart to take it sooo early...

Not true. Titograd is traditionally a tough place to go to in this league & the odds are unjustified, with or without Pekovic.
Posted via my Mobile Device

Archibald · 02-12-11, 15:50

Quote:

Originally Posted by alan ford

Pekovic told yesterday on TV, that he will play vs Buducnost.

Yes, I saw that. I must say that nobody didn't expect this because few days earlier there was information that game against Maccabi will be his last for sure, but last night he told that he will travel on tuesday, so he want to play in Podgorica ...

But now it's to late for my bet so I must stay with it and hope that Law will not be ready for Buducnost and that they will save him for next euroleague game.

alan ford · 02-12-11, 16:09

Quote:

Originally Posted by pinballmad

Not true. Titograd is traditionally a tough place to go to in this league & the odds are unjustified, with or without Pekovic.
Posted via my Mobile Device

Podgorica yes tough place, but Buducnost has weaker squad then previous years. Law is questionable, but Partizan should have fan support equal as Buducnost, as Partizan is most popular club in Montenegro and very close region, Hercegovina. So in my opinion, fan support for Buducnost is not such big factor.

alan ford · 02-12-11, 16:12

Quote:

Originally Posted by Archibald

Yes, I saw that. I must say that nobody didn't expect this because few days earlier there was information that game against Maccabi will be his last for sure, but last night he told that he will travel on tuesday, so he want to play in Podgorica ...

But now it's to late for my bet so I must stay with it and hope that Law will not be ready for Buducnost and that they will save him for next euroleague game.

No problem, Archibald, because your pick was (in my opinion) very logical and well explained. Now with Pekovic and even withou Law (and thats not for sure) this game might end in every direction. Meaning, thats now clear no bet.

ze3lock · 02-12-11, 21:50

I think Macabi will destroy zvezda tomorrow and H limit ( -10.5 @ mozzart) is low.

zvezda with good coach but will terrible players, team moral is low. The best player Morison left team because some conflicts.

I think it will be easy game for Macabi.

Mad_dog · 02-12-11, 22:42

Pekovic vs. Vucevic, it will be nice to watch.

Partizan will have big support of course, but on the other hand, Buducnost's fans "Barbarians" are coming back to support basketball club after 10 years.

Great atmosphere, two great teams, no bet for me, it would just spoil the spectacle.

kfcpro · 03-12-11, 12:39

3 posts deleted,chillout guys ,i dont think there was anything offensive ment,so no reason to react so harsh. its a betting forum so focus on betting

V1ad · 03-12-11, 13:58

@Gingis Khan why are you so doubtful to this post ? Partizan is most popular club in Montenegro and in part of Bosnia, Banjaluka and Republic of Srpska, it isnt nothing strange I love Partizan too even they are from Serbia, as a child i used to love them instead of Red Star.. it is very possible that we will see more Partizan fans tomorow in SC Moraca home court of Buducnost

kfcpro · 03-12-11, 16:17

Just end this discussion,remember it is a betting forum . If i miss something,as i dont have time to check it all the time,write me a pm and explain a problem or something and i will check if the problem really exist etc,just dont start here such discussions,it is an international forum,and history between diffrent countries always was harsh ,so we must watch out what we write,dont provoke,and dont carry on such discussions ,we are here just to focus on betting

ze3lock · 03-12-11, 18:49

Hehe the last game on ticket...f`kin Macabi!

Fix_MNE · 04-12-11, 11:08

For today game between Buducnost and Partizan my main bet will be under 148.5 points.

I am wathing this two teams closely for some years and traditionally in Podgorica their games are tight with narrow win of visitors. Buducnost at home plays aggresive defence and they are good in it, and in offence relies most on Vucevic than Krstovic and Vitkovac.They will have hard task against aggresive Cakarevic, Lucic and Milosavljevic. It will be interesting watching duel of Pekovic and Vucevic. Anderson is solid playmaker and has good asist but against Law he will heve hard task. Also, Partizan misses Macvan's points in ABA league a lot. Law should be ready to play but even without him Bozic and Jaramaz did good job against Maccabi. So to conclude both defences are good, both teams are missing more attacking options and plus tradition between them are making me bet on under. Expect score smt like 65-70 plus or minus maybe in max 5-6 points.

My two bets will be:

under 148.5 with 9/10, and

Partizan wins without handicap with 6/10. Even without Macvan I expect narrow win for Partizan. They are more balanced team and have more expirience.

GL.

Archibald · 04-12-11, 17:53

Quote:

Originally Posted by Archibald

Buducnost - Partizan - 04.12.2011; 17:00

Well, sorry for an early posted thread but IMO this bet should be taked now because odds probably will go down massive.

Buducnost is 5-4 in this year competition, but at home they are 4-1 and only team that beat Buducnost in Podgorica was full-strenghten Maccabi Tel-Aviv. In all other home games this season Buducnost took all points with mostly easy scores ... +16 against Cibona, +4 against Krka, +25 against Turow (na eurocup), + 15 against Crvena Zvezda and +18 against Helios Domzale.

This game is very important for Buducnost because they are on bad run of 3 straight defeats (all away games). they will have full squad for this game including NBA center Nikola Vucevic which is their best player. Buducnost have made agreement with 76-ers that Vucevic that Vucevic can play against Partizan and Dexia Mons in Eurocup before his trip to USA.

On the other side Partizan didn't impressed me a lot lately. They grab very hard win away in Siroki, and won in Milano against Armani tnx to cretenism of home players which dropped +21 in last 8 minuts of the game. Partizan players wasn't nothing special then, but it was really miraculously what kind of silly mistakes was maded by Milano players. Partizan also lost to Efes in euroleague, and to Zlatorog in ABA league. In last round they won easily at home against Hemofarm +22 but that was pretty expected because Hemofarm sucks away and also isn't on the simmilar level as Partizan.

Partizan will face some huge problems in this game. This will be their first game without their star center and team leader Nikola Pekovic. Milan Macvan still don't have right to play in ABA league competition till new year, and Acie Law status is under big question because he obvious have big problems with his back, but doctors do anything they can to prepare him for Maccabi game this night. If he will play against Maccabi his back-problems may become much worst and his back-ups are just crappy players. Also, I really don't se Milosavljevic, Lucic and Law (if he will play) as adequate quality players for Partizan because they are far away from quality of players that covered same positions in team in earlier seasons.

Budu***263;nost have pretty strong first line-up with great center Vucevic, PG Anderson which is their 2nd best player, and very expirienced duo Vitkovac and Krstovic. 5th man is montenegran national team player Popovic on forward position.

It's true that Partizand won last 4 games in Podgorica, but all of them were very tight with score difference between 4 and 7 points. Last season Partizan won here 65-61, but Buducnost won in Belgrade with 80-79. Also on final tournament of last year competition Partizan took very hard win against Buducnost 62:58.

IMO Buducnost have great opportunity in this game to break 4 years long losing streak in home games against Partizan under all of this circumstances. Odds on home team are just great at the moment.

PICK: Buducnost ML @ 2,75 6/10 (Stan James bookie)

Buducnost - Partizan 76:68 FT; BET WON

Game was completely controled by home team ... Partizan had lead 17-11 in 1st quareter, but Buducnost catch them in last minute of 1st period which finished 17-17. From that moment Montenegran team start to play much better and have the lead till end of game.

RonaldGomez · 04-12-11, 17:59

Great work Archibald like always, thx !