Pick of the Day 19/02/2006

[noovae]

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GL !

[Arbiter Elegantiarum]

#4

1/3 -91

Chelsea(-2,5)-Colchester 1 @2,29 Pinnacle Sports

Chelsea suffered shameful defeat 0:3 against Middlesbrough last week and Mourinho said it`s pity they have to wait week to play next game as he`d want to bounce back quickly. On Wednesday Chelsea have maybe most important game of whole season against Barcelona and they need a morale booster before it. They doesn`t have to win big, 1:0 is enough to advance but I think this time they`ll try to score as many goals as possible to increase self-confidence. Mourinho will field some bench players, of course still very good players, he can choose from this group: Cech, Cudicini, Carvalho, Huth, Ferreira, Johnson, Lampard, J.Cole, Duff, Robben, Wright-Phillips, Diarra, Maniche, Crespo, Drogba, C.Cole. He can give chance to guys like Huth or Diarra but they squad is going to be strong of course. He`ll miss key defensive players Terry, Gallas, Makelele but in this particular match Chelsea will be attacking not defending. Their rivals are League One side, good side, but of course nowhere near Chelsea level. We can expect Colchester players to fight and try to pull a big suprise but it`s hard to believe they can get the draw and replay here. Chelsea under Mourinho never lost 0:3 before and after this happened last week they have to bounce back and lower league side might be ideal opposition for that. They can make it 1:0 scrappy win but looking how Real, Barcelona, Lyon won their league games before CL to raise confidence I expect Chelsea do something similar and crush their opponents.

3:1, pick lost

[noovae]

NBA All STar Game West vs East

Pick #2 (1-0 +102 Units)
East ML @ 2.63 Pinnacle

If you look back to last year, it was nearly the same situation...
The All Star game was in Denver (Western Areana), the team roster was very similar only a few changes to this year. The totals line and the spread line was set exactly like this year. West a favorite with about 6 points and about 260 points total line...
Now the result last year was the East won with a 10 points margin... and 240 points were scored...
This year i expect to be very similar, i can't see this game go over 250 points, of course noone will play defense but to score more than 250 points you have to maintain a fg% over 50% and i don't expect that to happen...
Also i see a greater advantage on the Eastern side because they will have 4 Detroit players coming from the bench and the coach is also from detroit. They will be working like a well oiled machine, as they did the season all along...

Good Luck!


122:120, PICK WON

[ChristopherBG]

Pick # 6
4/5 +219

Spain, Primera
Real Sociedad – Valencia

I'll keep it short. Valencia, in-form, won 14 pts. in last 6 games visits Sociedad, a team which gained 4 points in the same period of time. Valencia started the season with hopes for European football, but their good results force them to set higher goals. After beating Barcelona the goal could be only one – chase the champions and wait for their mistakes to reduce their lead.
Sociedad is a solid home team with a total record of 6-3-3. However lately their results are not that convincing – they managed to beat Mallorca (20th), drew 3-3 with Bilbao (19th) and lost to Espanyol (14th). Sociedad will be missing Kovacevic against Valencia.
Under Quique Sanchez Flores Valencia gradually built a solid defensive unit, containing of Miguel, Navarro, Raul Albiol and Moretti. In the first rounds of the season Valencia was conceding a lot, but hard work allowed them to reduce the number to just 2 conceded in last 8 games. I see that defense as the key factor in winning this match by keeping clean sheet. David Villa and Aimar up front should be able to do just enough to secure the three points.
The price of 1.80 offered by gamebookers for the -0.25 line is just the perfect balance between safe bet and tempting profit.

Probable line-ups (As) :
Real Sociedad: Riesgo – Lopez Rekarte, Jauregi, Labaka, Garrido – Xabi Prieto, Mikel Alonso, Novo, Stevanovic – Uranga, Skoubo
Valencia: Canizarez – Miguel, Navarro, Raul Albiol, Moretti – Angulo, Baraja, Albelda, Regueiro – Aimar, Villa


Pick : Valencia -0.25 @ 1.80 gamebookers


1:2, PICK WON

[Nicodim]

Pick #9

So far 5/8 (+270)

Austrian Bundesliga

Pasching (+1) - Austria Zalzburg (-1)

Pick: Austria Zalzburg (-1)
Odds: 3.60 @Expekt 3.50 for POD

It's always hard to lose your money. Yesterday showed me once again that there are two sides to every story. It's all began absolutely fabulous to me when I got 6 out of 6 with my early (I mean => time) bets. In the evening I saw the other side - three of my bets (and if to be honest, two biggest) all have lost. At first there was a painful shot from Juve - my biggest stake of the day. It was so temptin' to take Juve with handicap while Messina played without the bunch of injured players. But it all got into mess finally. Strange game, IMO. Kinda bookie game. Temptin' odds for punters... Then seems to be a winnin' goal from Mutu at 81'... More bets on-line and... bookies got their money with another Messina's goal. I dunno, but it smells like we all were fooled. :roll:
By the way then was another strong (IMO ops: ) bet which lost too. I mean my POD - Olympics Curling match Italy vs USA. The stake was much lessier than that one on Juve, coz Juve was a natural choice for many others too yesterday. But still it's all ended with another strong loss for me. One thing I know for sure now - no more curling! :lol:
The last one was kinda tricky bet. I took PSG home win over Le Mans. I don't like to bet on PSG, coz it's very unstable team, but yesterday I've made my bet, unfortunately.
All in all I've ended my day with "even" - won veeeeeery little amount of money. But still it's a pity...
Sorry for lyrical digression...

... and now the review for my POD itself
:lol: :lol: :lol:

So, what do we have here? In Zalzburg we have the best Austrian club for years to come. It's a fate. With all that money from Mateschitz they are condemned to be the champions. Even now, though their original goal was next year.
If to look at the tables, we could see that Zalzburg 2nd overall (same points with Austria Wien, but capital club has game in hand) while Pasching is only 5th in the standings. Pashing is nothing special when plays at home - average team. Also at 5th place. As well as Red Bull when they're on the road - they're even worse, only 6th. BUT...
...but it all was before the winter break. Now Zalzburg became even stronger (though they was the strongest side of all before the break too) and Pasching have some important losses.
If to talk about hosts they lost their coach Georg Zellhofer who is at Rapid Wien now. Also veteran striker Edi Glieder went for Karnten and Volkan Kharaman was suspended due of the differences with the club. Yet they got Marcel Ketelaer on loan from Ahlen, but if some years ago they used to say "he has a bright future" in Germany, now he is nothin' special.

Now let's look at another direction. Red Bull Zalzburg are one of the best in the league now. Not only because of the points scored and the nubmer of stars in the team, but also in the terms of the game itself. They lost a lot of points durin' the early days of the campaign, but in late autumn Zalzburg played quite well. And the only porblem was... playin' on the road. :roll:
So, why then I prefer to back guests? And even with one-goal-under handicap? I tell ya. What did the winter transfer window brought to us? And it brought some fresh stars for Red Bull. The biggest one is Austria captain Andreas Ivanschitz from Rapid Wien. Who whatched Rapid games they know - Ivanschitz (and Hofmann who now left the club for Munchen 1860) was everything for Wien outfit. He may be the brightest talent Austria born after Polster. Now he's at Red Bull.
Another fresh signings are Austria international defender Ronald Gercaliu from Sturm (another new talent, only 19 years) and Hungary international defender Lazlo Bodnar from Roda. I don't know did he play well in Netherlands coz I don't have a possibility to see Dutch championship, but he was really good during his days at Dynamo Kyiv. Where were the problems before the exit from Ukranian grand. Some people said to me he's the big friend of alcohol, :lol: but it doesn't make him a bad player at all.
So now (with all these new players in and another greats Zalzburg already have) I don't see how could Pasching stop the opponents. These "Bulls" must crash the hosts out, IMO. Or, at least, they must overcome the handicap. I'll be delighted even with the score 2:0 in Red Bull's favour, but I expectin' more!

Xcuse me for such a big and useless review.. :lol:

GL to everyone!


0:0, PICK LOST

[Minov]

Pick #6, - 130


2006-02-19 Minden (+7.5) - Flensburg by: Minov (17-02-2006 22:15 CET)

Discuss this pick in the Bettingadvice forum

A miracle happened last Sunday, when Minden defeated leaders Kiel, after being 4 goals down at halftime, and now everything is possibile in their match against second placed Flensburg. That's one of the reasons why i think -7.5 HC is way too high

Of course, the result against Kiel, will probably be a warning for Flensburg players not to underestimate Minden, but they have much bigger worries now.

2 weeks passed after the European championship, and Flensburg players started to feel their legs again ( as they say). Still, those hard matches at EC did the job.Lijewski,Beutler and Berge were not training because of injuries, flu etc. , Solberg missed last weeks match because of stomach virus and is doubtful for Sunday, because he lost 4kg in 7 days,and Knudsen is also doubtful because of his injury

We should also have in mind that the 1/4 in CL away at Kiel is coming in 9 days, and coach Andersson will certanly not risk anything

Minden was one of the weakest teams this season in Bundesliga, but have very much improved lately.They lost by 4 goals only away at Magdeburg 3 rounds ago, and suprised whole handball world with their win against Kiel last week.
Flensburgs coach Andersson watched the tape from that match,and he said that Kiel played very good, but Minden played really outstandingly.

Why is the handicap so big ?
Well, one of the reasons is certanly their previous match in Flensburg, where the hosts won 38:20. But i think the bookies don't know that Minden had only 7 players available then, and that they played all 60 minutes without substituting the players. They have 13 players now, and most of them are in great form, especially Stephan Just impressed with his play against Kiel.

Snorry Gudjonsson, Kouzelev, Backovic,Niemeyer and Vukas are all national team players, and i'm really suprised how could they put themselves in this situation, to fight against relegation

Minden played 9 home matches this season. They won 4 of them and lost 5, but they were never defeated by 8 or more goals.

The handicap was -8.5 in BaW, and -7.5 in other bookies, but today it went down. I expect it to keep falling, and that's why i'll take it 2 days before the match !

Pick: H, Odds: 1.85, Stake: 8, Bookmaker: Betandwin


27:27 PICK WON

[rediss77]

Pick#7
2/6
-114

Finland-Canada

I would say that Finland is the biggest surprise till now. They have won 3 straight agaisnt Switzerland, Italy and Czech Republic. Their goalie is on fire , he has allowed only 2 goals in 3 games. Their offense is on top, they have scored 15 goals, and whats more important, they are showing great hockey. Canada isn't looking impressive. They lost yesterday against Switzerland and the bad news for them are that they isn't showing great hockey. Finland plays great defense hockey and Canada have very big problems against that style of play and yesterday they prooved that one more time. Odds on Finland are still super high, I just wonder how many games they must win till bookies will realize that they are showing champions game.

Pick:Finland ml
Stake:6/10
Odds:3.07
Bookmaker:Pinnaclepsorts

2:0, PICK WON

[The Ring]

5/6 +450

PICK #7


AS Treviso - AC Parma
AC Parma to win with 0 Asian Handicap @2.05 Bet365
Stake: 6/10

Treviso boss Alberto Cavasin is under huge pressure after his team is not showing what is expected from them after some money were invested in new players in the winter transfer window! The tactician will surely "leave" the club in case of a lost, and even there is slight chance to lose his job if they win having in mind the poor form his team is at the moment. Treviso are 8 points from the "safety" zone which makes their work harder having in mind that there are just 13 games till the end of the season and they have to play at home against teams like Juventus, Fiorentina, Udinese and far from home against bottom teams like Lecce, Siena, Empoli, Messina! It will be really hard for Alberto Cavasin to keep his job and even more harder not to regalate! Treviso is one of the weakest teams in Seria A winning only 5 points in 12 games. The team has lost 4 games at home in a row! In their last 10 games they have won only 6 points! The host have won just once and drew twice that's why IMO winning is almost impossible! As Treviso boss needs the win they will attack from the start but having in mind that their defensive trio Paolo Dellafiore(22*), Andrea Dossena(12) and Marco Mallus(0) are unavailable there will be many empty spaces for Parma's attacking players which are really good scoring 14 in 12 games. I think this is the place to add that other two defenders William Viali(16) and Marcello Cottafava (20) might miss the game!
Parma's coach Mario Beretta is under huge pressure too after his team has won only twice in last 14 games! The team is really making a progress after the sh*tty start! The team has finally popped out of the regalation zone and the players will feel a little bit more comfortable and wont play all in attack because draw is good enough for them having in mind that Empoli (the only team which can take their place) plays far from home against Rome and Cagliari - the team before them, has the same points as them after loosing against Milan! In case of a win Parma have the chance to go in 12th position - 5 points from the regalation zone. The team has won 13 points in their last 10 games beating Empoli, Chievo, Cagliari and making a draw against Juventus, Lazio, Ascoli, Siena and losing in very tight game against Milan, Rome and Palermo! The team is doing really great, showing almost the best! In Mario Beretta's squad there are some stars like Corradi, Delvecchio, Marchionni, Morfeo, Simplicio, Bonera which play fantastic in attack (some of them in defence) and could solve almost every game! With attacking players like these and a low scoring team like Treviso (they have score in 4 of their 12 home games) in case of a 1st goal scored by Parma - the game will probably be lost by the home side! The guests will be without new goalkeeper Matteo Guardalben along with Marco Delvecchio(7), Ferdinand Coly(5) and Giovanni Pasquale(15)! Daniele Bonera(11), Domenico Morfeo(16) will probably play but it is not comfirmed!

Probable line-ups:

Treviso: Sereni; Maggio, Gustavo, Viali, Valdez; A Filippini, Parravicini, Baseggio, Guigou; Borriello, Pinga
Parma: Bucci; Bonera, Cardone, Couto, Contini; Grella, Bolano, Simplicio; Marchionni, Morfeo; Corradi

* - in brackets there is the number of games played this season for the club in Seria A


0:1, PICK WON

[meser]

Pick #7, 2/6, -264 :x

Olympic Speed Skating, 1000m Women
Anni Friesinger to win, 2.00 @ NordicBet

Anni missed the European Championships due to an injury, but came up really strong in an World Cup stage, held right in Italy, at Collabo, when she won over her opponents (including home favourite Chiara Simionato) two times (this was on the 29th of January). She got a good "official training" in the 3000m race, when she missed 3rd place by just 2 tenths of a second. Then, Anni was really the main piece for Germany's win in the Ladies' Team Pursuit race. She looks very confident and really determined to get her first medal on her own. Her main opponent is home favourite, Simionato, but I believe the quality of Friesinger will really come into play here.

Good luck !


She was 3rd, pick lost !!!

[Coiote]

:arrow: Pick 6 (3/5 +49)
:arrow: Penafiel - Nacional
:arrow: Pick over 2,25 odds:2,17 Pinnacle

18. Penafiel 22 2 5 15 15 - 44 11

6. Nacional 22 11 6 5 27 - 16 39

Penafiel's home record

18. Penafiel 10 2 1 7 5 - 14 7

Nacional's away record

4. Nacional 11 5 3 3 9 - 3 18


First of all let me say that this is a risky pick. Everything (as you can see from the goal average from both teams home and away) go against me. Even the weather (it rained a lot today in Portugal) may complicate even more things.

However, i see this game like this: Penafiel is almost relegated they need to win every game so they have to attack, they have to score more than their opponents and having the worst defence on the league that means they have to score a lot (one of their problems too).

On the other side Nacional was really well a few weeks ago but after 2 defeats for the league (1-0 Sporting 1-4 Leiria) made them drop to 6th place behind Boavista. They will want to get back their 5th place and erase the bad image given on the last couple of games. The base of their away games is not to suffer goals and as you can see their defence is outsanding.

But tomorrow i think that both teams will press forward and will be looking to score some goals and i expect at least 2 goals. Of course that i'll keep this bet with really small stakes.

Pick over 2,25 odds:2,17 Pinnacle stakes: 2/10

GL :P


1:2, PICK WON

[meelis13]

Pick # 10

So far 6/9 +166

Olympics Cross-Country. Men relay. Sweden-Italy

Pick: Italy 1,70@Expekt

Italian men cross-country team is still without medal in this games, but today they have one of their best chances to get to the podium. Especially after they won last relay in World Cup before Olympics, expectation's have gone up. They have prepared very seriously to this race. Giorgio di Centa did not race in 15 kilometres race, two days ago and was saved for relay. Same story with their sprint ace Christian Zorzi, who did not participated in team sprint competition. Italians are very strong in free-style, so if they do not lose too much time on first part of the race, then they can challenge for any kind of medals.
Sweden usually has quite strong team for relay, but usually they also have one weak link in it, which did not allow them to compete for medals. And also this season they have been poor in World Cup relay events. Beginning of the season they were eight in Beitostoelen and in last relay before Olympics, which was held in Val die Femme, they managed only 12th place. Their leaders Fredriksson and Soedergren have not shown anything special so far, although Johan Olsson was sixth in fifteen kilometres, which was pleasant surprise for Swedes. Still I do not believe that they should be considered as favourites to the medals in this race.
So Italians ski in home, have home support and have shown much betters results in relay races lately. I think that they will finish ahead Swedes in today's race and take this bet with 7/10 confidence.

BET WON!

[Xponat]

#5
3/4 +191
Competition: EPL
Match: Tottenham-Wigan
Pick: Tottenham(-1.5 AH)
Odds: 2.72
Bookie: Gamebookers
Stake: 4/10

From the main page:

I've already written, in my Wigan-Liverpool preview, that I believe that Wigan are a very overestimated side, and that I'll bet against them whenever I have a good chance. And I believe that this is one of them, Wigan is facing one of the top teams (don't have a single point in matches against them this season, even lost to Arsenal at home), and they are still without important striker Roberts.

On the other side, Tottenham definately have some problems with concentration and commitment, as they've lost another two points in the dying minutes of the game, this time it was against Sunderland. The last time when this happened was against West Ham, when Anton Ferdinand scored from a corner in the last second of the game. However, Spurs have played their next game with 100% and won more easily than the 2:1 result suggests. And they played against- Wigan Away from home I expect a similar scenario today, the Spurs are a much better side, and with the motivation boost that Sunderland's last minute goal will give them they shouldn't have much problems beating Wigan. They are still without Tainion, and Ried is out, but they still should have too much for Wigan.

To ilustrate why I think these odds are value, I'll just say that the odds on Tottenham against Aston Villa, who are in great form and one of the league's best away teams, were lower than now against Wigan.

Medium stakes, good luck!


2:2, Pick lost

[Raymz]

Pick #7 /3-3 +90/

La Liga

Malaga - Mallorca

Pick: Mallorca 3.75 Bet365

Well two teams from relegation zone meet each other tonight. I expect hard battle for both teams. Last game Malaga lost 2-3 in away against Alaves showing awful preformance in defensive. Alaves scored three but they could easily managed more. When score was 0-3 Alaves played much relaxed and give Malaga some chances. But It doesn't matter. Malaga are playing like bottom team right now. On the other hand Mallorca are getting some points. Last game they draw with Getafe at home 1-1. They scored beatiful goal after brilliant teamwork from Okubo and Arango. Actually I like these players a lot. They improved their game and are showing good counter-attack skills. Mallorca have new coach. And this should motivate his side. If Malaga will play like they did last game that surely there is chance for Mallorca. And It's very interesting that odds for Malaga are dropping. Is everyone going against team with new coach?
I take Mallorca here.

GL :wink:


0:2, PICK WON

[ivan-dzo]

4/6
7th pick
+407
Hetafe - Atletico Madrid pick :arrow: 2 Expekt 2.75
This is must take bet. Atletico is in great form. 4 wins in row, play good after they change coach, and now is everything OK. They even beat B arca away. Petrov, Kezman and Torres are full of confidence and great motivated for another win. Seems no bad place at the moment in Madrid club. They are away 4-3-5.
Last 6 games:

Atletico Madrid Real Sociedad 1:0
FC Barcelona Atletico Madrid 1:3
Atletico Madrid Deportivo 3:2
Real Saragossa Atletico Madrid 0:2
Real Betis Seville Atletico Madrid 1:0
Atletico Madrid FC Valencia 0:0
Won away against on fire Saragosa and Barca, really amasing.

On the ather hand, we have Hetafe, team I dotnt know much, at home 5-5-2, and ten points from relegation zone, seems like they stay in league, what was their primary goal this year. Look their last 6 games:

Mallorca RCD Getafe CF 1:1
Getafe CF Deportivo Alaves 2:2
Athletic Bilbao Getafe CF 1:0
Getafe CF Espanyol Barcelona 5:0
Getafe CF Celta de Vigo 1:1
Cadiz Getafe CF 1:0
Only one victory in last 6, they like no in form these days?
Teams you can see here:
http://www.marca.com/futbol/laprevia...n_get_atl.html
H2H:
Atletico Madrid Getafe CF 0:1
Atletico Madrid Getafe CF 2:2
Getafe CF Atletico Madrid 1:1
Getafe CF Atletico Madrid 0:1
Atletico Madrid Getafe CF 2:1





The only thing I do not like is that Atletico loses Colombian centre-back Luis Perea who is suspended. He is main player in Atletico defence. It will be harder without him. I just love himto be in team. But we will see. There is a doubt over right-back Juan Velasco, who is struggling with injury, while Argentinian winger Luciano Galletti is out for a month with a torn muscle.

Hetafe lost striker Ivan Riki and midfielder Fabio Celestini to injury, and cannot play Cosmin Contra due to a clause in his loan deal from Atletico.

Take Atletico with 6/10 stake, it is pay back time.
GL


0:3, PICK WON

[k1k0]

Balance 0/1 -100 :?

2)Germany-Switzerland 2 @ 1.7 Unibet
Hockey, Olympics
Sun, 12.00 CET

Swiss team is flying really high at the moment. Surprisingly they beat Canada yesterday 2:0 previously beating Czech Rep. 3:2. l doubt if it's a coincidence, simply they're pretty strong. Goalie Gerber has an excellent season in this year's sensational NHL leader Carolina Hurricanes. Colorado's Aebischer ain't worse too. Their attack ain't theoretically so strong, however Pluss, Jenni and Streit are also world-known players.
Germany drew yesterday against Italy 3-3 and they seem to be unmotivated due to their lack of chance for quarterfinals.
Imho they fair odds on Switzerland should be around 1,45

2:2, pick lost

[Muuki]

Pick 2
1/1
+120

Football, Italy - Serie C

Sambenedettese - Ravena

Pick : HOME
Odds : 2.20
Bookie : Betandwin

Originally Posted by Mandrake

Incredible Sambenedettese...it is our ruin! It does not win since 5 months , it has societary problems but good roster. Mister Giannini ( since when entered the bench) is without a victory. Ravenna is in down trend : some players are out in defense and midfield and this should be good for Samb to make its own the match. This match is important to avoid relegation for both.

Niether side is in good shape as Mandrake wrote on the main page - but i belive that there are some things we should consider when ti comes to a games like this.
Ravena has an attacking poblem , thats obvious as they scored only once in last 4 games (lost 3 of those)
With Femana they have the worst attack in the league and score less then 1 goal per match. Sambenedettese has got the worst defence in the league but knowing that Ravena won only 1 away game i belive home crowd support could prevail here and home side will finally win a game after 5 months.
I don't know much about this league but i belive that home side will take this game more seriously after 0:0 away to San Marino in last game and finally put a smile on face of their supporters at Riviera delle Palme stadium in this do-or-die game

GL


0:0, PICK LOST

[zekikum]

pick#7 so far 4/6 +410
Vestel-Samsunspor
pick: (-1)Vestel 1
odds: 3,75
bookie: sportingbet

Vestel in good form and seems like they passed their usual "home game" problems , with their latest results... Samsun is a good away team but if only they score first, if they dont, they loose their control and dicipline too easy, in their last game they were playing head to head with Fenerbahçe but when they concede a goal, they totally got lost and game ended 5-0
Besides that Vestel's coach Ersun yanal is well known by his tactics to how to stop counter attacks... (by commiting simple fouls in midfield, even it causes a yellow card)... after transfer season Vestel became a wonderful team with their new transfers, Samsunspor got Ceyhun a very good player but lost Kais who was so important for their midfield, i will go for home win but as i mentioned before how Samsun looses their dicipline and concentration too easy, handicap home win is definetly more value than straight home win....

g.l

3-0 PICK WON!

[SenD]

So far:
1/4 -140

2006-02-20 IZK Itihad Z. Khemisset - CODM Meknès by: SenD (19-02-2006 11:01 CET)

Super League, Morocco

I've waited for a couple of hours whether the odds would be moved in some way, but when I saw that it won't for sure, I've decided that it's the time to take it. Really, I don't get BAW's point of view on this game, as this time odds shouldn't be so high on the away win.
At this first shape it looks like a clear draw game. CODM is within 15 points to the Wydad and it's clearly impossible to catch them, even if it's 12 rounds to go. WAC and Raja are on fire, and as Youmir Abdelkader said, their main objective is to finish so high in table, as it's possible. And what's for sure, he can be quite happy with the overall performance - defeats to FAR after a very hard battle and a narrow lose to WAC aren't bad scores, combining it with wins over Safi, Maghrib and MCO. I'm especially satisfied with last win over Safi, where it should have been 2 or even 3 to nil, but Marouik had a crazy game and was stopping almost everything, except Souieb shot in 78' minute.
I was on Khemisset some time ago, when they were playing against Tanger, when Bakhouche's goal saved them in dying seconds. After this game they've shown just nothing, win over Union doesn't mean anything, when Touarga is playing without supporters, draw to HUSA with being down at the half-time with Osherif's goal somehow they were able to equalize. And the last 0-4 defeat to Khouribga where they've made so much mistakes, that I woudln't be able to count it says that their form and their chance for improving table position is very little.
CODM always had easy games with IZK, they've lost with them since 2000 just one time, in June 2002 with 0-1 score - other scores were three draws and six wins with often 2 or 3 goals margin. Today it will be a close one, but CODM will take it with 1-0 win. Medium/high stakes.

Greets

SenD

Pick: A, Odds: 2.80, Stake: 7, Bookmaker: Betandwin

Pick lost - Khemisset won it 1-0 with a 72' min goal from Chihani

[strandns]

Pick no.5
4/4, +568

Udinese - Siena 1.82@pinnacle

Strange to see the two sides next to each other on the standings.
No matter that, we should have in mind that Udinese was meant to be Cl position chaser, and Siena the relegation fighter.

Ydinese in terrible form, with just 2 points from last 5, but also not the easiest schedule imaginable, having to play Roma, Fiorentina, Juventus and Lazio in that period, and having in mind their next game is at Inter, this one is obviously a must-win.
After the departure of Cosmi, the team looks much better, as if players were somehow hoping fo rhim to leave.
Siena standing good for their quality, recent form of 1-2-2 speaks of a little slump, Chiesa's bad form probably being the reason.
Today they are hit by a lot of missings - Tudor, Legrottaglie,Falsini and Bogdani. This should be too much to compensate for a side such limited IMO.
Also, note that both teams are under Juve's "hat", so no stupid waisting points by a draw expected.

1:2 BET LOST

[Macot]

So far: 2/4 +108
Pick #5!

2006-02-19 Stuttgart - Mainz by: Macot (19-02-2006 12:08 CET)
Discuss this pick in the Bettingadvice forum

German Bundesliga.

What a terrible start from new teamchef Veh, Stuttgart lost their home match in UEFA Cup against Middlesbrough but it is fair to say, that they didnt play so poor as HSV or Hertha. Stuttgart dominated the game and should score early, Ljuboja had some good chances and it looked like they will win this. But they recieved two stupid goals, the first one from counterattack and the second one in the first minute of the second half and this really killed VfB game. Also, I was deeply dissapointed with Tomasson, he was practically invisible and I am sure, he will show more today.

On the other side, their oponentns, Mainz are doing solidly, but away from home they are harmless. They lost 6 out of last 7 games away and although they had a very tough schedule, playing at Gottlieb Daimler stadium wont be any easier. Also, Mainz squanderred important points against direct relegation rivals Duisburg and Koeln and are under immense pressure.

Only worry I have in this match is missing of Dannish international Gronkjear, he is important for Stutgarts game, but I believe in Tommasson and Ljuboja, they should score a couple of goals and make home win perfect.

GL!

Pick: H, Odds: 1.71, Stake: 8, Bookmaker: Pinnacle

:P


2:1, pick won

[Jumbo]

Pick No.5 So far 1/4 -220

Italy - Serie A, Sunday 19 Feb 2006 - 15:00
Fiorentina - Lazio Rome
Pick: Home win
Odds: 1.7 @Gamebookers

Here's the table after yesterday's results:
Table - Overall
Italy - Serie A
1. Juventus Turin 26 21 4 1 53:17 67
2. AC Milan 26 18 3 5 58:24 57
3. Inter Milan 26 17 4 5 48:20 55
4. Fiorentina AC 25 15 5 5 41:25 50
5. AS Rome 25 14 6 5 48:25 48

So now Fiorentina is on the 4th place with 5 points behind Inter but what's more for concerning is that they are only 2 points above Roma who are hot! If they win today(that shouldn't be a big problem) and if Fiorentina fails to win today again then Roma will step up on the 4th place.
Fiorentina play great at home. From 13 home played matches they have 12 wins and only 1 lost match and that was from Juve. Lazio is good at home too where they have not lost this season, but they are not playing so good away from home with only 2 wins, 5 draws and 6 lost from 13 away played matches.
In the next round Lazio are playing the big derby against Roma. And they are all focused on that match. Just read this interview from Di Canio:
"We can lose at Fiorentina 7-0, the important thing is to win the derby,'' said Lazio's outspoken striker Paolo Di Canio. ``This could be my last derby."
After last weeks defeat against Livorno, Fiorentina is motivated enough to win this match against Lazio. They have to keep the 4th place on the table in order to play in the Champions League next season and Roma is very close behind them so they can't make any mistakes anymore.
Fiorentina will be without suspended defender Dario Dainelli while Lazio will be without injured Massimo Oddo and the suspended midfielder Luciano Zauri.
Probable line-ups (gazzetta.it):
Fiorentina
22 Lobont 21 Ujafalusi 27 Di Loreto 2 Kroldrup 23 Pasqual 10 Fiore 32 Brocchi 4 Donadel 20 Jorgensen 29 Pazzini 30 Toni
Lazio
1 Peruzzi 22 Oddo 13 Siviglia 22 Stendardo 7 Belleri 85 Behrami 6 Dabo 20 Liverani 68 Manfredini 9 Di Canio 18 Rocchi


1:2, pick lost

[afos21]

Pick #9
So far: 6/8 +446

Greek First League
Olympiakos Pireos Vs. AEK Athens
Pick: Home win 2.00 @ Interwetten

Betting against your own team is always difficult especially when it is based on realistic facts. The whole balance of the game is changed with the arrival of a single player. Yia Yia Toure. Before him, Olympiakos was in the same level as AEK and PAO. Bad football, few chances but they managed to survive since they had Rivaldo in a lethal mood. The arrival of Toure is very important for this game. The reason is that with Stoltidis, Djorgevic and Rivaldo in central midfield there was only one player marking and this was Stoltidis. It is very difficult to survive in midfield line, especially with AEK who has hard working midfielders like Emerson, Katsouranis and Chanko. Now, Stoltidis is more relaxed cause Toure can mark as well and Djorgevic and Rivaldo are also relaxed because there is another creative player in the team. Also, the arrival of Toure means that Djorgevic returns to the left wing where he can be much more dangerous and have a party with the poor right backs of AEK (either Kontis or Georgeas).
The second thing that makes me believe that Olympiakos will win tonight is the mentality of AEK. The team has not decided yet if they want to play for the win and have chances for the title or if they want to secure a draw and make the second place even more safe. Their heart says the first but their mind says the second. And unfortunately if there is one thing that Santos did these two years is to make the players play only with their mind and no heart. I expect AEK to be ultra defensive today. Anything else will be a big surprise for me. They will try to take advantage of free kicks (as usual) and the pacey wingers against the pathetic defence of Olympiakos.
The last thing that makes me bet on this match is the probable absence of George Alexopoulos. He might not be the best defender of the world but he sure is good enough for AEK even if his substitution is mighty Traianos Dellas. Alexopoulos has formed a good defensive duo with Bruno Cirillo and i don't think Dellas has as a good chemistry with Cirillo as Alexopoulos. If Olympiakos plays with Toure in midfield then probably the game of Olympiakos will be from the wings so not a big problem but if Olympiakos decides to attack from the midfield then AEK will have real big time trouble because Dellas is very slow.
The only bad thing for my bet is the tradition. AEK hadn't lost from Olympiakos on an away match for three years. In 2002-2003 the game ended 0-1, in 2003-04 the same and last year the two teams played two times. One for the championship, without fans and it ended 1-1 and one for the cup where AEK won 0-1 but Olympiakos managed to qualify with 2 goals in the extra time.
Very very hard match to put your money on. If Olympiakos wins, my bets and my POD goes well, if AEK wins or even drawns i will be a very very happy person with less money and points. So it's kind of a win-win situation .

Probable line-ups:
Olympiakos: Nikopolidis - Pantos, Bulut(Georgatos), Anatolakis, Schurrer -Stoltidis, Rivaldo, Toure (Okkas) - Djorgevic, Constantinou, Babangida.

AEK: Sorentino - Kontis, Malbassa, Cirillo, Dellas (Alexopoulos) - Emerson, Katsouranis, Chanko (Ivic) - Cesar (Soares), Limberopoulos, Lakis (Veglinski).

G.L!!!

FT 3-0 PICK -unfortunately- WON

[YAMAN]

Pick # 8

So Far ; 2/7 (-190)

Gaziantepspor v Trabzonspor

Gaziantep is a strange team. Even they brought Hüseyin Kalpar who is a good trainer for medicaore Anatolian teams, I dont see a big improvement.
On the other side they have 7 draws and 3 defeats at home still not a single win.

Trabzon started doing good lately and even without Fatih Tekke, they are still dangerous with Yattara, Smkowyiak and young talented players.

But, at the end of the day, at home against Trabzon without F.Tekke, I dont see Gaziantep losing this game.

Draw is the most expected result for me in this game.

So my pick is ;

Gaziantepspor v Trabzonspor ; Draw @3.30 in Sportingbet


0:2, pick lost

[no name]

MY PICK #7 so far 3/6 +155


Cadiz - Osasuna


Pick:draw
Ods:3.20
Bookie:centrebet

-I will try here with draw because I don´t see favourite here and draw looks like most logical bet in this moment!

-Osasuna are in top of the table right now and fighting for Champions League places!On other side Osasuna are on 22. place and are in battle for stay in Primera Division! This will be fight for each point and boat teams will be satisfide with one IMO!

-They playd just one time before and Osasuna won
25-09-2005 Primera Division Osasuna Cadiz 2 - 0

-But today they play at Cadiz and Osasuna are not favourite here like in last match at home!Cadiz can take one point here and they will do that IMO!

-If wont to stay in Primera they must collect points at home because they are much better at home and striker Fernando Moran said "We must try to win for the fans and I hope that I can play a role in the match and make a difference to the team,"!

we will see...

GOOD LUCK
:wink:



1:3, pick lost

[alaeu]

pick #8 5/7

Preston v Middlesbrough
pick:Preston
odds:2.80@betandwin

Preston are unbeaten for 25 matches, winning 12 and drowing 13 .they are 6th in Championship.Defender Graham Alexander is back after a hamstring problem.Brett Ormerod, Brian Stock and Simon Whaley are cup-tied and unavailable.Middlesbrough's midfielder George Boateng is uncertain! They come in Preston after a magnificient 3-0 win against Chelsea and a 2-1 against Stuttgart.They are just two spots above the relegation zone in Premier League.They defeated Chelsea but they
lost 4-0 to Aston Villa.I think they are very unpredictable, winning against big names but loosing against smaller sides, and also they are tired after playing in uefa cup and I believe they will not have an easy match in Preston. In England, playing home is a big advantage and I think the odds should give Preston as a favorite, not Middlesbrough.


Good luck!


0:2, pick lost

[latso]

#8

so far 3/7 +55

Spain, Primera Division

Santander - Athletic Bilbao

pick - away win odds 3.25 @Nordicbet

After yesterday someone took my Strasbourg POD, today it's like- Atl. Madrid, Stutgart and Udinese...thank god i have a 4th POD.

Santander is in a good streak, wich lead them to the places, where relegation is far away (12th, 7 points above the line). They are not 100% sure for their Primera place but we know they will stay and they know it too.
In fact Santander is the second worst home team in La Liga (2/3/6, worst is Cadiz on goal difference), they cannot lead the game, they are a tipical counter attacking team.
Athletic Bilbao is quite the same situation in terms of prefered style of playing. They are much more suited for counters than leading and creating.
Athletic's every last game will be a do or die one. They have nowhere to go back anymore and a visit to their bad playing home, neighbours is a good chance for them.
They have Yeste and Etxeberia back and this will be a great boost for the team.
I expect a clear away win, after a lot of fighting.
The guests will jump hard for every ball and not-that-motivated hosts will have to leave the points.
Athletic Bilbao 6/10

PICK WON 0-1

Good luck

[motorhead]

pick #1

Italy serie A

Treviso-Parma Home win @2.7 :arrow: Centrebet
http://www.betbase.info/?matchid=i529275

this is the last canche for Treviso for not to be relegated, both teams are in big truble and in a bad shape, Parma have out their main player Morfeo for injury plus first gk Guardlaben is out.
Treviso lost last match at home so now there is no excuses, they wiil play today with their best line-up; 2 attcker Boriello and Fava, and defender Viali and Cottafva come back from ingiury time and no one was thinking possible this short recover. Pinga talented player of Treviso will stard from the bench but probably he'll play, now I think that the team is really motivated to get this victroy , Parma-Treviso this yers ended 1-1, now with a very difensive Parma and 3 regular out Treviso must attack a lot and improve a superiority at home. odds for an hmoe win are hig so I try this one.

line-up
Treviso; Sereni, Valdez, Viali, Cottafava, Maggio, Guigou, Baseggio, Parravicini, A. Filippini, Boriello, Fava

Parma; Bucci, Bonera, Cannavaro, Couto, Contini, Grella, Bolano, Simplicio, Marchionni, Bresciano, Corradi


0:1, pick lost

[Palini]

Pick #3, so far: 1/2 -25

Icehockey, Olympic Games

Czech Republic (-4.5) - Italy (+4.5) 1 ---> 2.07 @Pinnacle

Big diffrence in class, even though the czechs have been really disappointing so far in the tournament. The did however beat Germany 4-1, which should be about the same class as Italy, but Italy are a bit weaker in my opinion. But there is a big diffrence compaired with that game. Fatigue should really be a factor here. The so called "weaker teams" are not as used to play this frequently with two games in three days. Italy will probably give the czechs a tough game in the first period, but after that I expect the italian wall to crumble, even though the czechs haven't been that impressive so far. Italy was ever so close to win the previous game against Germany, but lost a point very late into that game, and that should have dented their already weak confidence even further.

The fact that Jagr will most likely play in this game, after the knock yesterday against the finns, should also tells us a bit about the czechs motivation in this game, and motivation is really what it's all about at this stage. Sure, one goal win is enough to advanve to the quarter finals, but after recent bad results, I think the czechs would like to show more than that today.
I really can't see Italy creating an upset here today, and I expect the czechs to show their true colours today and to beat this handicap handsomely. They haven't shown much of their scoring capability so far, but anything else than a at least five goal win in this game would surprise me.

4:1, pick lost

[kamei24]

Pick #2, so far 1/1 +85


GREECE, Panionios - Levadiakos

Pick : OVER 2 goals

Odds : 2.05

Bookmaker : 10bet



A must bet for me. Panionios in last two games at home played 2:3, and 2:4, with Olympiakos and Panathinaikos. So 5 and 6 goals in their last two home games.

Levadiakos lost last two away games with identical score 0-2.

It's a must win situation for home team. Magdi and Makou will be out and also Langer. Zwgrafakis and Spyrpoulos will take part in the squad.
Panionios were leading 2-0 with Olympiakos and Panathinaikos but finally lost.

Important worries for away team. Alban Mbousi have problems with his stomach and he lost one training. So if he plays he won't be in top form. Gkourma and Sizopoulos are doubtful and Zafiropoulos is finally out for 15 days.

I believe Panionios should win this important game, but decided to go for this OVER 2 goals bet, as I think it's very probable to happen. Last home games of Panionios makes me confident..

GL~


1:1, pick void

[nikola_scg]

PICK #6 +47 3/5

SIVASPOR - GALATASARAY Galatasaray EH(-1) @2.85 expekt

In Turkish Super league two teams are in fight for tittle: Fenerbahce and Galatasaray. Fenerbahce lost two points against Rize, but Galatasaray could win in Malatya. Now, Fenerbahce lost from Ankaraspor and Galatasaray have nice chance to come closer to them. Now, They play against Sivaspor and they are not that good like Malatya. Siva is in big crisis. They are 10 games without win and they are much worse after winter break, because some players left them. Song and Saidoo are back in team and Galatasaray with strongest squad will go for 3 points today.
Galatasaray have big motivation to take points here and I think they will not waste it. Galatasaray won last week against Gaziantep 6:0 and they should win against poor Siva, too. Here is a very big difference in quality, so, I will try away win here in reality, but for POD I will try with handicap.


0:0, pick lost