ATP: Paris | 07 - 14 Nov

[MilosS]

# Name: BNP Paribas Masters
# Category: ATP World Tour Masters 1000
# Place: Paris, France
# Date: 07.11.2010-14.11.2010
# Draw Size: S-48 D-24
# Surface: Hard
# Prize Money: € 2,227,500

[MilosS]

Left side of the draw -

(1) R.Federer (SUI, 2) - Bye
(WC) N.Mahut (FRA,135) vs R.Gasquet (FRA,27)
(LL) M.Russel (USA, 85) vs R.Stepanek (CZE, 38
(14) N.Almagro (ESP, 16) - Bye
|
(11) J.Melzer (AUT, 12) - Bye
T. de Bakker (NED, 45) vs (Q) S.Giraldo (COL, 68)
M.Berrer (GER, 47) vs (Q) F.Fognini (ITA, 63)
(7) D.Ferrer (ESP, 8) - Bye

(3) A.Murray (GBR, 4) - Bye
M.Granollers (ESP,67) vs D.Nalbandian (ARG,29)
S.Stakhovsky (UKR, 53) vs (Q) I.Marchenko (UKR, 81)
(13) M.Cilic (CRO, 15) - Bye
|
(12) G.Monfils (FRA, 14) - Bye
D.Istomin (UZB, 43) vs (Q) B.Becker (GER, 57)
(WC) A.Clement (FRA,73) vs F. Lopez (ESP,31)
(6) F.Verdasco (ESP, 7) - Bye

Right side of the draw -

(8) A.Roddick (USA, 9) - Bye
X.Mallise (BEL, 61) vs (Q) J.Nieminen (FIN, 41)
E.Gulbis (LAT,26) vs J. Chela (ARG,40) - Gulbis won 7-5 2-2 (retirement)
M.Youzhny (RUS, 10) - Bye
|
(15) I.Ljubicic (CRO, 16) - Bye
S.Wawrinka (SUI, 21) vs (Q) J.Quanna (FRA, 172)
A.Golubev (KAZ,36) vs G.Simon (FRA,52)
(4) R.Soderling (SWE, 5) - Bye

(5) T.Berdych (CZE, 6) - Bye
A.Montanes (ESP, 23) vs (WC) F.Serra (FRA, 70) - Serra won 6-4 1-6 6-7
P.Kohlschreiber (GER,34) vs T.Bellucci (BRA,28)
(10) N.Davydenko (RUS, 11) - Bye
|
(16) J.Isner (USA, 19) - Bye
P.Starace (ITA,55) vs M.Llodra (FRA,35)
J.Monaco (ARG,25) vs S.Querrey (USA,22)
(2) N.Djokovic (SRB, 2) - Bye

[MilosS]

So, situation is like this - Djokovic is defending last year title after he beat Monfils, Federer suffered a shocking loss to Benneteau and is certainly No.1 favorite to clinch a title since Nadal withdrew because of a light shoulder injury.

Roddick needs a long run to secure season finals in London, same as Berdych who is totally out of form recently. Verdasco has slim chances since he suffered 2nd round Valencia loss to Simon. David Ferrer won the title in Valencia and passed Roddick at 7th spot.

[MilosS]

Just one interesting notice - all three seeded Spaniards - Vedrasco, Ferrer and Almagro have negative record in Paris - 3-6, 4-5 and 2-3 (of course it's reasonable since this is one of the fastest surface in tour).

Watch for players who've ended their season, expect those top guys who badly need points.

[LostSoul26]

Russell - Stepanek

Russell is a lucky loser here, he lost in the last round of qualis against Giraldo 4-6;2-6. Stepanek comes in Paris after a decent run in Basel. My hunch is that Stepanek will win this in straight sets.

Pick: Stepanek 2-0 @ 1,83 Bet365

[MilosS]

might be, but h2h is 2-0 in Russel's favor, he is an old fox while Stepanek is not that consistent to beat his opponents in straight sets...anyway good luck with you bet but to be honest odds are a bit shitty

[fc arges]

Bleeding clown's pick on Ouanna should be a verry good one!!

The match will be playd in Paris at night...people will come 4 sure...all we all know there suporting for compatriots!!Ex. Monfils at Montpellier and Monfils again at this RG against Fognini.

saw Ouanna in matches against higher players and he was verry good...Waw always whit problems and living on 1st serve most of the game....Ouanna it's whit a verry good 1st service to...probally will be a long match whit some tie-break...odds are insane...Waw it's good but 1.17...hmmm...sry if i'm mistaking but at this odd, the handi line should have been +5.5 or +6.5 and it's 4..+4.5

risky but this is a strange match and have to take it!!Can't miss it!!

[ssickz]

Originally Posted by MilosS

might be, but h2h is 2-0 in Russel's favor, he is an old fox while Stepanek is not that consistent to beat his opponents in straight sets...anyway good luck with you bet but to be honest odds are a bit shitty

I'm not saying that the pick is good or not, but c'mon... H2H is 2-0, but both matches were played on 2002 and 2003.
Do you think that two matches 7 years ago are relevant for today's match? Many things have changed since that...

[SirRoger]

Originally Posted by fc arges

Waw always whit problems and living on 1st serve most of the game....Ouanna it's whit a verry good 1st service to...probally will be a long match whit some tie-break...odds are insane...Waw it's good but 1.17...hmmm...sry if i'm mistaking but at this odd, the handi line should have been +5.5 or +6.5 and it's 4..+4.5

Two things.. Wawrinka does not have to rely on his 1st service when he plays against Ouanna. The Frenchman is not solid from the back always wanting to hit the ball with his powerful forehand. He is error prone. He will get backup from the home crowd, which is the only reason why this pick has value.

Second thing is that because Wawrinka is 1,17 favorit you don't necessarily get +5,5 or more in the spread. If it was clay. Yes maybe, but it is a fast indoor surface. Probably the fastest on the tour. This kind og reasoning is misleading.

However I would also go for Ouanna in this match. I would rather try first set for the Frenchman as Wawrinka will pounch on the Frenchman's backhand later in the match.

[nazz]

But the Frenchman and the public will punch Wawrinka in the head.

[LostSoul26]

Originally Posted by LostSoul26

Russell - Stepanek

Russell is a lucky loser here, he lost in the last round of qualis against Giraldo 4-6;2-6. Stepanek comes in Paris after a decent run in Basel. My hunch is that Stepanek will win this in straight sets.

Pick: Stepanek 2-0 @ 1,83 Bet365

Pick won. Stephanek wins 6-2;6-0.

[fc arges]

Originally Posted by nazz

But the Frenchman and the public will punch Wawrinka in the head.

congrats
@LostSoul26

that's the secret...always the people from France supported there compatriots!!

it's a clear level between the 2 BUT Wawrinka favorite at 1.17 hmmm...better try that money on the franchman than for a small win at 1.17

[SirRoger]

Originally Posted by nazz

But the Frenchman and the public will punch Wawrinka in the head.

?? Useful post

[MilosS]

Originally Posted by ssickz

I'm not saying that the pick is good or not, but c'mon... H2H is 2-0, but both matches were played on 2002 and 2003.
Do you think that two matches 7 years ago are relevant for today's match? Many things have changed since that...

all i've said is that odds were shitty nothing else... i didn't suggested anything just gave my opinion.

Stepanek easily won but I would never take odds around 1.85 for a -1.5 win on him

[nazz]

Originally Posted by SirRoger

?? Useful post

It's up to you.

[SirRoger]

It's maybe not a secret that French players are supported by the French crowd

I have tried Ouanna 1st set

[MilosS]

Quanna will either push Wawa really hard or lose smoothly in two sets, 6-3 6-2

it's a no bet for me but taking the local guy definitely has some value regarding Wawa's awful performances against Seppi and Monfils

[LostSoul26]

Ouanna can't cover the handi only with his serve. He has to play well with his BH and FH. I'm also on + 4,5 Ouanna. GL !

[betting addict]

i hope you guys were right about ouanna, didnt watch him only once or twice but took +5.5 at 1.45.
what do you think about tomorrow picks., tought going with nalby but with him you never know., also Mischa looks very good to me., pariz good place for gulbis party boy!

[robinlaid]

Preview for the early match Querrey vs Monaco:

Ok im trying to keep a level head whilst writing this coz that anus monaco made me lose a bit of moolah last week with his 'stunning' performance against granoellers. But dont fret, this post is on pure stats and logic and not meant to spite him. haha. So monaco is having the hard court season of his life...SF appearance in Shanghai beating the likes of de bakker, in form zverev and a very very very tired melzer b4 eventually capitulating to murray. 1 week later, his form seemed to carry over with that stunning victory of the world no.4 only to be humbled by a local boy who managed to get to the finals.

Querrey on the otherhand has been really shaky since his r16 appearance in USO....a string of early exits wouldnt uplift anyones confidence. But heres the thing.....i dont think hes been playing badly (well at least from wat i saw in basel). He was neck and neck with his slighty better compatriot roddick..... only one lapse of concentration in the first set and during the 2nd set tie break lost him the match , but other than that he was fighting fire with fire. Fantastic serving, powerful ground strokes and some really good volleying. Impressive.

Im backing Querrey mainly becoz i dont think monaco deals with the traditional big servers very well (esp on hard), his 2 victories over sam were on clay (he lost on hard) , hes got losing h2h with all the other big american servers 2-0 blake, 2-0 fish, 1-0 isner and losing records against other big servers like soda, jo willie and ljuba.... in short i dont think he deals with the pace of serve very well (either that or been damn unlucky many many times...haha)

Pick Querrey @ 1.65

[LostSoul26]

Verdasco is not in a good shape lately. He lost to Simon in the 2nd round in Valenica and now he meets Clement, who is playing in Paris, his home and will have the crowd behind him. Clement beat Lopez in 1st round in 3 sets but very convincingly.
I expect Clement to cover this handicap and maybe even to win the match.

Pick: Clement +3
Odds: 2.08 @ Pinna

[betting addict]

agree on Querrey pick because this is faster court than in valencia and monaco serve should let him down in some moment before querreys will., and he doesnt have same exepctional form at all his wins were against some inconsistants players like de bakker, zverev, murray (posible tanked).,
clement +4.5 is very possible becuse verdasco is tottaly out of form and clement served 20 aces yesterday.
what about Misha is he fit? he had medical time out in st.petersburg and lost to mug kukuskin, little strange odds on him

[Corpobal]

I was mystified by this surface but it seems like the low camera angle on some of the matches tricked me into thinking it was a slower one, in matches i've seen there have been severe mishits with players hitting the frame of the rackets. So in fact this would be considered a fast surface?

Should add extra importance to the first serve statistics if that's the case.

[Timurito]

I find Murray odds 1.52 to be a good bet, since he should come out sharp against fat Nalby. He has beaten Nalbandian in Toronto 6-2 6-2 where Nalby played better that he did last weak. Any objections?

[Iacopo]

Sportingbet offers fantastic odds for Monaco's win @ 6.50 against Djokovic. I believe Monaco is very underrated player and Nole in a not so good day can lose with him.

Pick: Monaco +4.5 games @ 1.83 on PaddyPower 4/10
Pick: Monaco to win @ 6.50 on Sportingbet 1/10

[SubinM]

I am against Wawri tomorrow, Ljubici has strong serve, will push Wawrinka to tie-breaks, where the chances for him are better than @2,1. Wawrinka played funny game with Quanna, winning only for Quanna´s very bad perfomance in play and on serve too.
This is bet for the day for me...

[Corpobal]

Originally Posted by Poltergeist

Sportingbet offers fantastic odds for Monaco's win @ 6.50 against Djokovic. I believe Monaco is very underrated player and Nole in a not so good day can lose with him.

Pick: Monaco +4.5 games @ 1.83 on PaddyPower 4/10
Pick: Monaco to win @ 6.50 on Sportingbet 1/10

Monaco +4.5 games is now 2.05 @ Sbo for anyone interested, he averaged 72% of first serves in his 10 service games against Querrey which bodes well for him not being broken easily.

[latso]

Originally Posted by Corpobal

I was mystified by this surface but it seems like the low camera angle on some of the matches tricked me into thinking it was a slower one, in matches i've seen there have been severe mishits with players hitting the frame of the rackets. So in fact this would be considered a fast surface?

Should add extra importance to the first serve statistics if that's the case.

This is what happened to most of us - game looks slow and players playing bad, but it's all because of the camera angle which is unusual.

The surface is ammong the fastest ones, it has been changed this year and it is like 10% faster than last one.

It can be seen by the ace stats of many players who normally don't hit so many usually.

But it shouldn't be a super leading factor, also because the balls aren't too fast, they get fluffy very fast (also because of the new surface, which is still a bit like sandpaper because it's new).

At the end of the day have in mind that there will be more aces and flatter shots will go a bit faster through the surface, but also ber in mind that returned serves will make it hard to play as well, so things depend on many other factors as well.

Fognini beated Berrer, Monaco beated Querrey, so things are never black or white

[Cornell]

Andy Roddick vs. Jarko Nieminen

Well, Andy Roddick will play his first game here at Paris while Jarkko Nieminen is in the competition and has defeated already three opponents. Roddick's recently form has been really impressive after his quite long pause, he has played nice in Basel, but aslo I have to mentionate that he didn't played against players in a too good form. At Basel, Nalbandian didn't played his best level thats for sure as there were too many errors in his play, about the game agauinst Golubev I can say that Andy has been dominated in rallies and only the inconsistency of his opponent made the final result. Andy Roddick is a greta player and his form of the moment looked ok, but he is not a complete player and that changes a lot, especially his backhand has a huge influence on his overall defence, Andy is the player who depends a lot of his serve. Speaking about Jarkko Nieminen, well this player doesn’t have a big weapon to overpower opponents with but he is a complete player and he moves so well on the court, his deffensive skills are surely better than the american's ones. As I have mentionated before, Nieminen has already played three games here at Paris while for Andy this will be his first game and a question of form could change the situation as well as you never know how you'll accommodate to the new conditions. Nice value here. Good Luck!

Pick: Nieminen at 3.51 with Pinnacle 5 units

[Cornell]

Ivan Ljubicic v Stanislas Wawrinka

Well, Ivan Ljubicic's rating position is 17 at the moment, he really improved this season and last season as well, so no doubts that the success has been on his side. Ivan Ljubicic improvement is visible and there are no doubts that he did so well in 2010, but still despite all these things there are some aspects, more essentail I will say and here I mean the class difference. Ljubicic has won Idian Wells this season and also played well and won points, the reason he is on 17'th position at the moment, but despite this poistion he is still a player under Wawrinka's level. By during a season many things can be happen, an example why Ljubicic is rated better at the moment than Wawrinka, but the real essential difference between two players remains always the same. Ljubicic is overrated at the moment and we have some nice value on Wawrinka's side, a player who should dominate the rallies and overall the play today. All in all, Wawrinka's movement on the court is clear much better, Ljubicic is the player who depend of his serve and accuracy of his groundstrokes, otherwise he is in trouble as he can't find too many solutions on the court. Good Luck!

Pick: Wawrinka (-1.5) GH at 2.11 with Pinnacle 6 units