Greece - Superleague - 23-24 Oct

[danieljackson]

odds from bwin

[danieljackson]

source - soccerway.com

[kattis]

First early pick from this round, of course posted on the main page here:

http://www.bettingadvice.com/showPre....php?idMenu=79


Olympiakos Volou vs Larisa: Olympiakos Volou win @ 2,61...7/10

[kattis]

In my post on the main page regarding Larisa, I mentioned the rumor that came out yesterday about chairman Piladakis and his possible resignation. I also explained how I personally felt it was highly unlikely to happen.

Well, just a little while ago, chairman Piladakis made a statement clearing things out, noting that such a scenario does not exist and he has no such intention whatsoever.

[Ellinas]

Olympiakos Volou-Larisa
Olympiakos Volou DNB @1.78 (Bwin) 8/10

This is the second most important match of the round after the big derby between AEK and Panathinaikos. Actually, this can also be considered as a local derby as there is much competition and hatred between the two neighbor towns (Larisa and Volos), their clubs and their fans. There is already some fuss about Olympiakos' denial to give tickets to the visitors and the advice of the club's board to Larisa's fans not to enter the city of Volos. This looks like a joke, one could say, but, honestly, it's indicative of the situation. And actually that's why the odds are so balanced although under current form Olympiakos should not have been priced above 2.20.

Apart from the local derby factor, Olympiakos is in much better shape right now. They have performed really good in the most of their games, they have shocked big clubs like AEK and PAOK and above all they play nice and organized football. Moreover, they have a full squad to field. On the contrary, Larisa has met a breakdown after the last failure at home against Asteras. Instead of getting improved, Larisa seems to be worse than before in every new game. The missings of Inglesias, Blazek and Makinwa (these, along with Tal, will also miss the match against Volos) can be considered an excuse to some extend but the whole truth is that this team is totally ineffective since the start of the season. The midfield is too slow, the attack is almost vanished (just 2 goals scored in 6 rounds) and lately the defense has been unstable, too. Not to mention that the coach waits to be fired.

Due to the special meaning of this match and the need Larisa has for points I expect them to give a hard fight and stand up to the situation, be competitive in other words, but even this may not be enough to claim points against a better side and in front of a massive hostile crowd. The local derby factor makes me hesitant to go big on the the straight HW but I think the DNB option offers high level of safety and, most important, it can be found at worthy prices. Bwin offers 1.78 and I suggest high stakes for it.

[Ellinas]

Atromitos-Xanthi
Atromitos -0.25 @1.78 (Ladbrokes) 5/10

What do we have here? We have a side with big potential, that can play nice football, that consists of pretty good players especially in the midfield and attack but somehow usually fails to deliver the goods. This is Atromitos. And we also have a side that has failed so far but I can't tell this was unexpected as their quality level is medium/low, they traditionally face considerable scoring problems and they have already gone through a coach change since the start of the season. This side is Xanthi.

What should we expect? Atromitos will control the match and will try to attack, I have only little doubt about that. Unless they take an early lead, the hosts are going to get the ball possession and attack Xanthi. Will they make it? I can't say. This team has the quality to beat Xanthi by 3-0 but can also mess it up in the ending minutes as they did against Iraklis (1-1), as they did against Volos last week (2-2) or as they almost did against poor Panserraikos (2-1) few rounds ago. In few words; I usually avoid taking bets on Atromitos, despite enjoying watching them, but this time I will try my luck with medium stakes, mainly because I expect them to exploit on Xanthi's big missings (Strba mainly and Boateng, secondly) at the midfield. I'm not taking straight HW, though, due to the reasons I explained above but -0.25 AH can do the trick here and costs only 2.5 units in case Xanthi gets something in this match. And I'm talking about the draw, as it would be a huge surprise if they get anything better.

[Ellinas]

Asteras-Iraklis
under 2.25 goals @1.77 (Pinnacle) 7/10

Two sides that have gone further than their true potential so far can offer us a weird match that I guess it's open to all three results. Of course Asteras can be considered favourites, due to the ground advantage and also due to the morale boost they took after the away win at Larisa but let's not forget they have yet to win at home this season (2 attempts) and, most important, that Iraklis has avoid being defeated all the 3 times they have visited this ground for a league game in the latest years. And consider that Asteras has been a tough home side during this period. Anyway, it's obvious that a close match is expected. It's always close and low scoring at this "tiny" ground and the fact that two of the most underish sides of the league (Iraklis 5/6 under 2.5 and Asteras 4/6 under 2.5. Just 3 over 2.5 in a total of 12 games, all 3 of them against Olympiakos and AEK) meet each other prepares us for a boring football performance. Big fighting spirit is anticipated, though, but honestly not many scoring chances. The "home by 1/draw" combination could be an option here but I skip it because of the tradition and also because I don't trust Asteras that much when they are favourites. On the contrary, I will stick to the under goals options, finding the best value at the 2.25 line. Pinnacle offers 1.77 for it and it's better than fair for the match I have in mind. Medium/high stakes.

[xaralas]

Atromitos - Xanthi

Atromitos by 1 @ 3.70 (Bwin) 2/10
Draw @ 3.39 (Pinnacle) 2/10

I've back Atromitos last weekend vs Olympiakos Volou, in a game they could have won, but could have lost too. They certainly are improved in the attacking part of the game and both Perrone and Camara produce a lot of shots on goal upfront, however they have a real problem avoiding to concede goals as well. Michailidis, influential GK is back, but his sub Sanvist had 6 saves in the game vs Olympiakos Volou. Plus, we have began to have some discomfort for coach Donis.

Xanthi on the other hand, is coming from a loss vs Olympiakos, but you can't draw any conclusions from these games. They seem a bit better under new coach though and they could face an uptrend at some point. For this game, they have absences and returns. DMC Strba and Boateng are out, along with DL Jaggy. Good thing DC Kostoulos returns and influential AMRL Quintana.

Atromitos are favs, no doubt, but I won't fall for it again. They have proven to my eyes, that at this point, despite the offensive guns, they are in some crisis and I doubt they are able to win with more than 1 goal any opponent, let alone good defensive side, Xanthi. Xanthi want to redeem themselves after defeat from Olympiakos, while Atromitos are not in their most confident moon, make me add the draw scenario here as well. In the lowest stake for the combination (2+2) I'll the Atromitos to win by 1 at a good price and the draw at a bit more than good price.

[xaralas]

On Asteras game, I agree with Ellinas' option of <2.25 @ 1.77 by Pinnacle, that is the bet I've taken myself too. No reason to post same option @ 1.72. But <2.5 @ 1.57 by Bet365 seems an inch more high that the fair price here and could my be a double bet material to tie around tomorrow's Panserraikos vs Kerkyra <2.5 option, too. Just my 2 cents.

[xaralas]

As for Olympiakos Volou game, both guys set the tone correctly. Both bets, straight win and dnb option have great value. Correction: had value. As now, prices are considerably lower to even attempt anything. I took a bite on dnb @ 1.78 by Bwin too, so I hope we all be richer after the game and maybe ...Papakostas can be sent home, at last.

[xaralas]

Btw, Asteras <2.5 with Panserraikos <2.5 offer 2.40 combined in the bookmaker I mentioned earlier. Not a bad deal at all.

[kattis]

The...no bets:

Atromitos vs. Xanthi

In theory, you could say that Atromitos are the favorites in this game, being the better team overall but the problem is they have been so unreliable this season, it’s difficult to trust them.

Atromitos are the more offensive minded side and you should expect them to take over control in this game, however defense has been an issue, with Atromitos having failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their games in these first six rounds. The reason? Atromitos are too busy attacking, they become careless and sloppy defensively and what a better example (one more) the previous game against Olympiakos Volou: twice they took the lead and yet they failed to hold on, coming even close to actually suffering a defeat.

Xanthi, over the years, have been very weak on the road but I still insist they have a better squad this time around and I will also insist on my early prediction, that they will be one of the fun teams to watch should they gain some good form and momentum. So far, however, they have been rather mediocre and scoring is a major issue, with the main reason the injuries to some key players like Kintana or Ellington.

For the stat lovers, coach Donis of Atromitos has dominated coach Paraschos over the years and even more impressive is the 6/6 record against him as a host and has overall suffered just one single loss, in a cup game no less.

I can't say if this dominance of coach Donis will continue but I will repeat my exact words regarding Larisa a couple of weeks back: untill they show me something solid and, better yet, start winning, I shall not trust them, especially not as a favorite, as tempting as the prices today may be.


Asteras vs Iraklis

Both Ellinas and xaralas already pointed out the obvious under, so no need to go into it much further, since I don't have any argument to call something different. Very evenly matched sides here, the draw looks quite possible but I personally am not "feeling it" so no need to bother.

I already pulled the trigger on Olympiakos Volou with a good stake, as well as the goal/goal on OFI - Levadiakos from the lower division so these two are good enough for today.

Enjoy your day

[xaralas]

Originally Posted by xaralas

Atromitos - Xanthi

Atromitos by 1 @ 3.70 (Bwin) 2/10
Draw @ 3.39 (Pinnacle) 2/10

1-1 FT. +2.78u

[kattis]

Originally Posted by kattis

Olympiakos Volou vs Larisa: Olympiakos Volou win @ 2,61...7/10

1-1 FT and 7 units lost here, in a game Olympiakos Volou started well, scored relatively early and took the lead into half time.

Second half, however, with no reasonable explanation, as if they turned the engine off and gave too much space to Larisa. I suppose the idea was to preserve the lead and hit on the breaks to kill the game but eventually, that didn't go too well this time.

Even though it took a great amount of luck with a...pinball goal, Larisa equalised and then had a second goal wrongfully dissalowed. Some late pressure from the hosts in the end had no result so the draw was your final result.


Funnily, all three games today ended in draws, with a scoreless one at Asteras and a 1-1 at Atromitos, who by the way again proved they cannot be trusted just yet, certainly not as such hot favorites.

[xaralas]

Kavala - Ergotelis

Kavala by 1 @ 3.70 (Interwetten) 3/10
Draw @ 3.30 (Pinnacle) 3/10

I am not seeing the pattern changing here. Kavala looks for their 6th undefeated game and I don't think Ergotelis can do magic like last season. No matter if last season's game was clean or dirty, weird or not weird, I don't think Ergotelis is as good now as they were that period back then. And I am seeing Kavala having the upper hand. I don't know if they will win, but I don't see the pattern of their last 5 games changing. In these 5 games, they won 2 by 1 and got 3 draws. I don't think they are that better than Ergotelis right now to claim a wider win and all wins they did, vs Iraklis and vs Panionios were all hard fought and they could easily end up in draw in both cases.

Kavala's win by 1 offers 3.70 and draw 3.30, by two widely known bookmakers. Using adjusted stake, means we get 1.75 for the winning scenario and I consider it a very good price for this game.

[xaralas]

Panserraikos - Kerkyra

<2 @ 2.00 Ladbrokes 4/10

This is the usual line for greek games, but the price is huge for one of the most stand out under2.5 games of this round. We had an opening price of 2.04 we missed, but make no mistake, this will be as low as 1.80 at least till tomorrow.

Both teams with underish results, Kerkyra will defend like they always do trying to hit on counters and defend their undefeated run. Panserraikos have better morale now, but still they lack a real striker and they that shows in total shots made and of course goals scored. Kerkyra after a scoring start in the league they have landed in reality and have fewer goals and fewer shots on goal per game. Both teams with no missings.

Another thing: After 3 underish games, one could say we could expect a correction in day 2. This is not true. It means the opposite. It is a tendency and evidence of teams mentality and lack of quality and bad pitches. I can't back this with documented stats and numbers, but myself I have always seen the under2.0/under2.5 rate of early games in each day, between weak sides in the league, rarely break and I will back the tendency in an obvious one, that should be priced at 1.80-1.85. Always low stake due to the nature of the bet (low under line).

[MadmanPL]

what do you think about olympiakos win tomorrow ? maybe -1 handi is good option? thanks a lot greece friends.

[xaralas]

Aris will be very defensive in this game and they can do it good. However, it's all about Olympiakos. I doubt they won't be able to win it one way or the other. Current line of -1.25 is a high handicap though. I personally will wait for a change into a -0.75 hopefully, but even -1 would do, if game image is very good for Olympiakos.

[xaralas]

I would like to know Ellinas and kattis opinions regarding the big game of the day.

Both teams with big absences here, both heavily tired with hard midweek games, after hard last weekend games and both want 3 points really bad.

AEK without two guys that have their own history in these games, Scoccho (loves to score vs Panathinaikos), Lymperopoulos (very experienced forward in this level).

Panathinaikos without Ninis (having first shined in a similar game), Govou (that could add more), Leto (that is imo always irreplacable) and maybe Karagounis (very experienced in these games) that is not 100% fit.

AEK with the crowd to back them up, which is a boost I can't misregard, but same time, it is unpredictable of how Berns, Leonardo or Eder will manage to assist Djebbour in the game and same time that goes for Christodoulopoulos and Marinos that will assist Cisse.

[Davvidex]

Nice knowledge in general you are the best here
Just little question: do you play at Interwetten by yourselves? Do you know their limits? (initial and individual then). I know statistic looks nicer but this is joke bookie especially for professionals like you. Reasons: low limits individual limits sometimes 10 euro or even less and huge payout problems. OK there are sometimes big odds but they are available for lucky first follower. Bwin and Gamebookers are better but not very much
Asian lines on matchday are difficult to move I am sure you know what I'm talking about here. Anyway is it gentle for mates to give lines from muppet bookies like Interwetten which is useless absolutely useless for followers? Big thanks for consideration

[xaralas]

You know, you don't have to have only one account in each bookmaker... But I understand what you mean. Almost all bookmakers, except the asians, have that thing for liquidity. But we don't have to necessarily limit ourselves to asian handicaps all the time, there are other betting options to be pursuit and more than often mistakes in these bookmakers we can take advantage of. As for the bet I've got pending on Interwetten right now, one can alternatively try the exact scores 1-0 and 2-1 from other bookmakers or mainly Betfair and get even better odds, 99% of the times. If I could do it here, I would certainly post score bets all the times, instead of that home wins by one. But it's not homepage-friendly, as you can understand.

[Ellinas]

Originally Posted by Davvidex

Nice knowledge in general you are the best here
Just little question: do you play at Interwetten by yourselves? Do you know their limits? (initial and individual then). I know statistic looks nicer but this is joke bookie especially for professionals like you. Reasons: low limits individual limits sometimes 10 euro or even less and huge payout problems. OK there are sometimes big odds but they are available for lucky first follower. Bwin and Gamebookers are better but not very much
Asian lines on matchday are difficult to move I am sure you know what I'm talking about here. Anyway is it gentle for mates to give lines from muppet bookies like Interwetten which is useless absolutely useless for followers? Big thanks for consideration

Hi man.
We made some of this discussion in last round's thread (16 & 17 of Oct).

Personally, I mostly use Betfair. I also keep accounts to a number of other bookies (like Pinnacle, Bwin, Gamebookers or 10bet) mainly to use them for some special bets (e.g. win by 1 goal) Betfair doesn't offer.

Since betfair is not allowed (correctly imo) for the main page picks I -and I think most of the tipsters around- just select the best price from the bookies that are available at BA's list. Sometimes it's Interwetten, sometimes other bookies. However, the point in published picks is not to point out a bookie but to suggest a nice and effective betting strategy for the specific event. And most of the times it's obvious in the lines (or even between the lines) which prices are ok and which aren't. If I mention that "3.60 by the X bookie includes high value" then it's common logic that you should also try it if your bookie offers 3.55 or 3.50. Sometimes I write a whole last paragraph about the odds of the event to make clear which prices include value. And it's all these (plus match analysis of course) that make the pick and not the specific bookie that is taken from the BA's bookies list.

Anyway, I can reassure you I fully understand that point of yours and as you can read at the last Superleague thread (Oct, 16 &17) I have decided to drop any Interwetten suggestion for the main page picks.

[Ellinas]

Originally Posted by xaralas

I would like to know Ellinas and kattis opinions regarding the big game of the day.

Just a week ago, with a solid team performance and Scocco doing miracles, AEK thrashed Aris away (0-4) and made an initial statement before the big local derby against Panathinaikos. If there was no time between the two games, AEK would have been favourites to win Panathinaikos. That timing was perfect for them. But this one, just 7 days after, is not. What happened during these days? AEK travelled to Brussels to face Anderlecht for the Europa league, suffered a humiliating defeat (3-0) that slowed down the enthusiasm and the heat between the players and the fans and above all lost due to injuries regular central defender Manolas and Scocco, the most influential player they have. This guy is really important for AEK in the "creative department" and is a constant threat for the opposite keeper. AEK always needs him for the big games. So, the hosts may approach the big derby in a more cautious and realistic way but they certainly are much weakened, if we also add the missings of Lymberopoulos, Jahic, Georgeas and Patsatzoglou.

In the meantime, Panathinaikos enjoyed no real improvement in the injurt list and has his own big missings to deal with. Sydney Govou, Leto and Ninis missed the midweek CL game against Rubin Kazan (0-0) and they are unavailable for this match, as well. So Panathinaikos is going to be weakened once again at the mid/attack line that was supposed to be his best line at the start of the season. Good thing for the guests is that they have Gilberto Silva (he also missed the CL match due to suspension) fresh and most important is that they are satisfied with the performance against Rubin (not with the score, though) and their morale is boosted as the team gives signs of improvement despite the huge missings. Last but not least, Panathinaikos is expected to be at a better freshness level than AEK, which had a day less to rest (they played at Thursday) and also a trip to Belgium to overcome.

The game will be held at the Olympic stadium, which is used by both sides for their home games, but there will be only AEK's fans. About 40,000 are expected.



AEK-Panathinaikos
under 2.5 goals @1.75 (Expekt) 8/10
correct score 1-2 @10.00 (Eurobet) 1/10

A big derby and a really important match for both sides, that need the points to stay close to Olympiakos, who leads the table right now, and to maintain the good morale they 've managed to build recently. This importance and the fact that they both face obvious problems in physical condition gives us an idea of what we are going to watch; probably a boring match and two really cautious teams which will try to avoid being defeated and at the same time take the slightest chance to score one and protect the lead after that. I dare to say, their energy funds are not enough for anything more. Watching Panathinaikos struggling to keep control of the game against Rubin in the midweek and going out in attack only in the ending minutes makes me believe that this match will probably be much alike. Given the fact that Panathinaikos and AEK have many missings to deal with (AEK with big problems to fill the CB and the RB positions while the best player of the team, attacking midfielder Scocco, got injured few days ago and will miss the match. Panathinaikos once more without the attacking midfielder Ninis, and wingers Govou, Leto) especially at the mid/attack lines and that the subs are not near their level I expect low levels of creativity and limited scoring chances. It would probably be an one goal decider in case it escapes the draw. And if it does, then Panathinaikos is closer to winning it right now. Not only because they have better quality but also because they had a day more to rest after the midweek European games (AEK had just 70 hours to get back from Brussels and prepare for Panathinaikos).

All in all I predict a tight game with low score and not much spectacle. More or less like all the recent games between those two (0-1 and 1-1 last season and 5/6 under 2.5 in their last 6 meetings) but this one with many more reasons to be that way. A main bet on the draw and some more units added for the away win by 1 goal may do the trick but this is a derby and such options may be threatened from various ways. So my final call here is the under 2.5 goals, judging Expekt's offer at 1.75 more than fair (1.70 is still ok). Eight units for this option and one more unit to cover the 1-2 exact score (at 10.00 in many bookies) as I rate it the only serious threat to ruin the main bet.

[Ellinas]

Kavala-Ergotelis
draw @3.27 (Pinnacle) 4/10
Kavala by 1 goal @3.70 (Betsafe) 2/10

Same combo with xaralas here but this time the emphasis is on the draw.

This is a match between two solid sides, that are mid table material. Kavala has slightly better individual quality, I guess, but Ergotelis can neutralize the handicap as they are a more compact side that is based on good team work. Why do I think they should get a point here, against a Kavala side that seems to be in form and has the ground advantage? Mainly because they have convinced me they perform much better away from home -the counter attacking style suits them better and they have the needed defensive level to support it. Ergotelis have escaped with 1-0 wins (against Panionios and Volos) two times so far and their only defeat away was an undeserved one in dying minutes against Aris. I also invest to the high concentration level they should have in this match, considering they have to take something today as just after this round they enter a tough period with consecutive games against PAOK, AEK and Olympiakos. It would be difficult to get more than the draw, though. As I've mentioned above, Kavala are no pushovers. On the contrary, they are good enough to have a slight edge in this match although I'm not sure it would be enough to lead to victory. If it escapes the draw it would probably be a slim home win, and that's why I 've selected the "home by 1" as an additional bet, but it would certainly be a close and tight affair.

[Ellinas]

Panserraikos-Kerkyra
Panserraikos by 1 goal @3.75 (Sportingbet) 3/10
draw @3.24 (Pinnacle) 3/10

Panserraikos is the worst side of the league in terms of quality but I claim that Kerkyra is also a relegation material, despite their great start. The guests made some impact based on two unexpected home wins against AEK and Atromitos in the starting rounds but after that they are struggling and have managed just some lucky draws, like their last one against Kavala. I expect them to adjust even more to their true (poor) potential, as they have very limited quality with the exception of Epstein in attack. The question is, can Panserraikos break Kerkyra's 4 games undefeated (1-3-0) run? It would be hard in this tight and probably low scoring match but I believe if there will be a winner the hosts have the edge. They have the ground advantage, they should be determined (this is the kind of games they have to take to save their ass) and their morale is boosted after the point they grabbed away at Iraklis in the last minute of the game. If they take the lead, I expect nothing more than building a wall in defense trying to protect it, exactly as they did against Larisa few weeks ago. So, the home win by 1 goal (3.75 by Sportingbet) and draw (3.24 by Pinnacle) combination suits perfectly here as I predict something like 0-0, 1-1 or 1-0. Medium/high stakes.

[Ellinas]

PAOK-Panionios
under 2.5 goals @1.60 (Sportingbet) 8/10
PAOK by 1 goal @3.50 (StanJames) 2/10

Vieirinha is out for PAOK. Panionios is going to miss Vaz Te.

PAOK is in a crisis. They started the season as title contenders but after 6 rounds they have gained just 5 points and they are already searching for their 3rd(!!!) coach in the season. For this match, assistant coach Havos will sit at the bench, as he did in the midweek away game against Villareal (1-0). The truth is that PAOK has been improved a little, mainly in defense, in the last couple of games but the team still lacks creativity and I can't see this changing now that they also have the fatigue to deal with. So what should they try here in order to take these 3 points they are desperate for? No doubt their usual 1-0 approach. Clean sheet and one goal up front to grab the victory. Of course they play at home and this is always a big asset for them but right now I think they can hardly do any better. Panionios also needs points after a really slow start but I don't think they have what is needed to do any big damage at this hostile ground (they've managed just 2 draws and nothing more in their last 10 visits to Toumba stadium). If they are fully concentrated they can fight for a low scoring draw, though, mostly due to PAOK's low effectiveness in attack.

PAOK has already gone under 2.5 goals 11 times in a total of 13 official games (domestic and European) and under the current circumstances I can't see beyond another low scoring game for them. The under 2.5 goals is priced at 1.60 by Sportingbet, that is not spectacular but at least it's more than fair an offer, and I suggest it for high stakes. Two more units will be spent on the "home win by 1 goal" option, that is offered at 3.50 (StanJames) not only for the value of it but also because it can serve covering purposes in case of a 2-1 FT score. The straight HW odds that hardly exceed 1.60 are rejected cause they are slightly below the fair level.

[Ellinas]

Olympiakos-Aris

Olympiakos with no important missings (Ourtado and Pantelic are out but they wouldn't start anyway) and fatigue free (as they are out of European cups) hosts Aris just one week before the big match against Panathinaikos.

Aris is coming from a Europa league match at home (0-0 against Bayer Leverkuzen) and has many important missings including regulars Nafti(DM), Cezarek (CF) and Ronaldo(CB). Some more regulars (such as Javito or Koke) may not start the match, as coach Hector Cuper would like to rest them according to the reports.

This would be a HW, I have little doubt about it. If Aris was with complete squad and well rested it would have been another story but current data leads us to the home win. Nevertheless, Cuper has demonstrated nice tactics at big games (remember how they grabbed the win against PAOK away few weeks ago) and the guests are capable of putting a fight, at least not to lose with hands down. They have the quality, I repeat, but I'm not sure they are in the physical condition to do it. And that's why I can't calculate the possibilities to go for AHs or not. Another point is that Oly's players may not push hard for a big win (if they are leading, of course) till the final minutes protecting themselves in front of the derby against Panathinaikos.

Straight HW at 1.38 average and at 1.44 max (Ladbrokes) seems to be about fair considering Olympiakos' recent convincing performances (they played low opposition, though) and can be used for combo bets. Can't form a single bet for the main page, though.

[xaralas]

Originally Posted by Ellinas

All in all I predict a tight game with low score and not much spectacle.

Bet is reasonable and price of Expect is extraordinary. Much better than average and about 0.10 or more than any other bookmaker.

However, despite the fact that both teams miss guys that can score, it's the importance of this game and the fact that AEK's defence is almost as lousy as... Panathinaikos' that make me think that we could have goals here. I don't know if they can be enough to ruin unders, but I don't really think any team would settle for a draw here. And since there is no comfort in 0-0 or 1-1, I expect both to push, AEK to revive after loss in Anderlecht and not lose contact to the top of the table and Panathinaikos to have Olympiakos within their reach when they face next week.

As a result, I would also only consider Expekt's offer. I doubt there is any value in any other bookmaker that have more fair prices like 1.60.

[kattis]

After a lot of thought, I've decided to totally skip everything and take the day off, regarding the Greek League.

Kavala vs Ergotelis I had in mind for a possible home win. I rate Kavala as a much better side and in better form overall but I can't disregard the fact that Ergotelis, without any impressive displays, are getting the job done and collecting points. There's also a "debt" from last season which should favor the hw, when desperate Ergotelis grabbed a vital win against their opponentt today in this same ground (3-1), but I am not certain if this debt will be payed off today.
Don't know, overall weird game, can't make a call.

Panserraikos vs Kerkyra an even tougher game to call. Latest history shows Panserraikos have enjoyed entertaining Kerkyra but currently, Kerkyra are the team looking in better condition; much better condition. Coach Tennes, as usual, will field a tight, defensive minded side that will look to hit on the breaks, something that has brought great success so far and with Panserraikos having a really hard time scoring, I would not be surprised at all if Kerkyra claim points here today. Surely another game open to any result, possible under but no bets here either.

PAOK vs Panionios, a game between two sides in which s**t has hit the fan. Most should know by now that coach Dermitzakis was sacked and the assistant Makis Chavos has taken over till the new coach is hired. PAOK still a mess, poor form and to top it off, super important defensive midfielder Pablo Garcia decided to...take some time off, after an argument with Chavos during the week, another example that the locker room is very heated. Finally, note that the best player of the team, Vierinha is out, which is a huge blow for the offense of the team, being the key player both in creating and scoring. As for Panionios, a mess of their own and the loss in the hands of Ergotelis just comes to show you how poor they have been so far.
PAOK usually gets it done with Panionios but there's no way I can trust them under current circumstances at such low odds. With both desperate for a good result, I feel this might turn out to be an offensive, open game and I do have a hunch about the over, but that's about it.

And finally, the big game. Initially, and more so after Wednesday, having witnessed another one of those "magical" performances of Panathinaikos, I was almost set to pull the trigger on AEK. AEK, in comparison to PAO and despite all their problems, have at least shown some movements on the field, some passing, some creativity and more than one ways to score, unlike Panathinaikos and their usual unbelievably boring search of Cisse through long balls.

However, two major blows for AEK have prevented me from taking the bet. First and foremost, midfielder Scocco, one of the 2-3 best players of the team, a player that does it all in the creativity and scoring department. And secondly defender Manolas, whose absence I rate higher than midfielder/striker Limberopoulos.

As for Panathinaikos, their absences have been mentioned above so no need to repeat them, nor do I want to get started on Panathinaikos. I think I've covered this topic enough, most of you have probably witnessed it with your own eyes, therefore my point is clear and my case rests, and I really don't want to get into another diplomatic argument with my friend Ellinas.

With both defenses being unreliable and easy into making mistakes, both to score seems like the best option here, something that has become a tendancy between these two throughout the years. My personal instict tells me Panathinaikos will not lose, but can't say if they will win either. I will even dare say, in an effort to explain my instict, that coach Nioplias (God show mercy for what I am about to say) may have a slight advantage over Himenez only because the latter is a newbie in the league, thus no possible experience in such a game. However, the other side of the coin says coach Nioplias has still not won a big derby and frankly, the guy seems to be out of ideas whatsoever. If you think about it, he's with the team, what, almost a year now and I have yet to see ONE thing on the field that has his signature. A movement, some automatic quick passing, a one-two, something, anything. So far it's been long ball after long ball after long ball to find Cisse and frankly, I'm surprised Cisse is still coping with this nonsense, being all left alone fighting with the opponents defense in what is totally an unfair battle and a battle that he is bound to lose 9 out of 10 times.

Enjoy your day...


P.S. My only bet for today is Agrotikos Asteras, published and posted since the other day and I must note the amazing change in odds, with Agrotikos Asteras slashing big time, from close to 4,00 initially to even a favorite at some bookies at 2,50-2,60.

[Ellinas]

Originally Posted by kattis

super important defensive midfielder Pablo Garcia

I think you overestimate him. I don't think he's that important for PAOK. He's too slow, too nervous and undoubtedly not as good as his team-mate Vitolo is in stopping balls. If Garcia was so important for PAOK I guess they would have collapsed without him at El Madrigal last Thursday. But it didn't happen. On the contrary, PAOK looked better and fresher without Garcia.

Originally Posted by kattis

...coach Nioplias (God show mercy for what I am about to say) may have a slight advantage over Himenez only because the latter is a newbie in the league, thus no possible experience in such a game. However, the other side of the coin says coach Nioplias has still not won a big derby and frankly, the guy seems to be out of ideas whatsoever. If you think about it, he's with the team, what, almost a year now and I have yet to see ONE thing on the field that has his signature. A movement, some automatic quick passing, a one-two, something, anything. So far it's been long ball after long ball after long ball to find Cisse and frankly, I'm surprised Cisse is still coping with this nonsense, being all left alone fighting with the opponents defense in what is totally an unfair battle and a battle that he is bound to lose 9 out of 10 times.

Oh man... You've started it again!

(just joking, of course)

Well, all of these are close to truth (you're exaggerating a bit, though) but I don't think it's only Nioplias we should blame. I mean, all the 3 super-regulars (Leto, Govou, Ninis) that were supposed to play behind Cisse and produce the attacking game, they are all out. You may like them or you may not like them but these are the players Panathinaikos was counting on for this season in order to play nice attacking football. Nioplias don't have them available cause they are all injured and instead of them he only has Karagounis, Marinos and Garcia. And they simply can't play at the same level. They can't play quickly, they are not real wingers and indeed they can't support Cisse the right way. But where is Nioplias fault here? I have to underline that I also don't think Nioplias is good and experienced enough to be at Panathinaikos' bench and manage such an expensive roster but I wouldn't say he's the only responsible for everything that goes wrong. Last season the team played some good football at the 2nd round and the coach was Nioplias. As for the derbies (I guess you 're referring just to the games against Oly and AEK), he played AEK last season and the score was 1-1 and he also played Olympiakos and lost 0-1. Apart from the fact the sample is too small, I have to remind you that Panathinaikos was clearly the better side in both games. Panathinaikos was the side that controlled the ball, created, had chances to score, hit the posts (had 3 posts only against Olympiakos) but had no luck. You see, it happens some times to dominate a game and not to win at the end. This doesn't mean we should blame the coach for everything.