Another competition?

Palini · 27-04-03, 21:13

I thought Computer Guy had a good idea about a competition with 100% bankers and I would like to propose a competition like that.

The rules could be made really simpel. Everyone that would like to join gets 100 units, which they are free to invest as they please.
You can continue in the competition as long as you make a correct pick, once you make a wrong pick, you are out. You have to stake all your units everytime.
Your points will be the number of units you had, before you made that final wrong pick. The person with most units, when all competitors are out wins.

What do you all think about that?

tahoma · 27-04-03, 21:36

Well, when the current competition has finished, I will probably start a new one with different rules. It will be a competition for "bankers" (sorry one-two!) and as you said, if someone makes a wrong pick, he's out! Odd limit will probably be 1.00-2.00, but I'm not sure about all rules yet! Let's just finish the "Pick of the day" and then we can discuss this new idea...

GaryB · 27-04-03, 21:47

Hi All
Palini,I agree your idea is worth thinking about.
But for me Tahoma"s "Pick of The Day" Competition is the flagship tipping championship on Betting Advice,and although it might need to be fine tuned a little,it should remain so.
The rule of one loss and you would be out is a bit harsh,so when we discuss properly I would suggest only being out of any tipping Competition when you give 3 consecutive loser"s,although the current League Divisions seem the best idea.
But I look forward to entering whatever Competion/Competitions we end up with,and finally very well done and Thanks to Tahoma for moderating the Pick of The Day as it must be a hell of job to find all the results etc.
GaryB 8)

IKARUS · 27-04-03, 22:35

After CG made 100% bankers topic, I believed that it would be the best topic on BA.But after the misunderstanding the essence of this thread, CG stopped writing it.I thought of creating the same topic and continue CG`s idea, and now I can see I`m not alone in this.First of all, I think this topic shouldn`t be a competition.Every competition promotes not just itself, but competitors too.I think that`s not good for 100% bankers in two reasons.
1. If there should be competition, the picks of different competitors must be different {the basic rule of "Pick of the day"}.IMO, that`s not good in this thing because: a-there is very few bankers in the whole week, not just in one day; b-if more than one tipster from this site come to one banker from different points of view, that should be considered as most safe bet of all the games{imagine Lakini, Kuki,Tahoma,CG agree on one bet as banker-wouldn`t you place all your money on that?}So that`s why same bets should be allowed but in that case no competition would be possible.
2.There would be "race for high odds" in the purpose of winning the competition. That, too, is not good for 100% bankers. For example let`s take two bets - one is 1.30, and the other is 1.65. The first bet is 10/10, and the other is 9/10. Majority of all competitors would take 1.65, although 1.30 looks safer.
Let`s say something about Palini`s rules of competition. For example, competition lasts like "Pick of the day" - 30 days.What if one competitor gives 5 straight succesfull bets, 6th bet misses, and other 20 scores again.That would be loss for everything, not just for him.Better solution is going down after 3 missed bets, but that`s not it , too.So I can`t see anything good about taking the competition for 100% bankers.My suggestion is to make 2 topics of this kind in one week. First would be from monday to thursday, and second from friday to sunday.That`s because, IMO, very few bankers are throughout the whole week.My proposal is to continue that practice for whole month of may, and to calculate profit{loss}. IMO, it`s better for this topic to stay empty{with 0 bankers for the whole week} instead of having 4 wins of 7 bankers,5 of 10 etc.

Pavel · 28-04-03, 04:46

Tahoma,

Could you give a reason for limiting the odds to 2.00 in the next round of the competition? I think that before introducing such a radical change, you should at least open a discussion about it.
Paranoid accusations are not my style, but had a certain tipster not be banned, he would have said that these changes are made just to suit certain other tipsters who have not been very successful in the ongoing competition :wink:

tahoma · 28-04-03, 06:43

Pavel, if I made a change like that, it's because I want to start something like a banker thread/competition. I still see many "Bad results lately, so I try this one: HT/FT X/1 @ 4.50" and it feels like contestants only post such picks to get a good score, it's not their best pick of the day in any way. I guess people are more interested in bankers and very rarely follow someone's valuebet @ 3.80.

I guess your talking about Joaquim, Pavel. If I'm not mistaken, only one of his 8 picks had a price above 2.00 (2.40), so I cannot see how this change would be against Joaquim in any form.

Lukasz · 28-04-03, 09:26

I was going not to write anything in this forum for a couple of weeks( before my exams are finished) when I saw this thread and simply couldn't resist.
I am not entirely sure what's going on but it looks like we are heading towards self-destruction, My Friends. Does all this really mean that we are sinking our flagship? It looks like this when Tahoma writes that he will start a new competition because I don't see anyboy having enough time to take care of two competitions at the same time. Are we really abandoning The Pick of the Day?
It looks a bit risky to give up an idea before it has really been tested. I guess that one of the sources of some critical opinions about the competition which arised lately, is that the Premier League which was supposed to consist of a bunch of the best tipsters in the forum, isn't actually generating profit. I am sure no one had been so naive to belive it would in the first round. The purpose of introducing the league system was to gradually seperate the best from the good and from the candidates to become members of one of these groups. This has been written so many times but I feel obliged to repeat it: the proper segregation will not come after one round nor after two. I dare to say it's a question of at least five months but the results will be worth the waiting. We cannot simply switch to new ideas not having tested this one. Be patient and we will pick the fruit together.

About the bankers...
There is oviously no such thing. You thought me this by jumping at all the people writing:
"I want to bet on Celtic against something. Is it 100%? I have to know because I want to bet my house, my car and my girlfriend on it."
Nothing is 100% sure. At least not in betting.
The most important thing that we seem to be missing here is that the one and only way to make profit on sports betting is to find value bets. For this purpose the games at odds below 2.00(the so called bankers) are not any better than those with longer odds. What's more, I would even say that the value is more likely to appear at 2.5 than at 1.5. What seems to blind us, however, is that at 1.5 we are winning more often, while at the longer odds we often hit long loosing streaks. The end, however, is always the same: you make profit if you find value and you lose your money if you don't, no matter what odds are you betting on.

About the people writting: "Bad results lately, so I try this one: HT/FT X/1 @ 4.50" ...
This is not a reason to limit the odds range, in my opinion. I mean, who cares about them? You can write what you want and choose the picks that you want and if they are good( read: "have value") then: Congratulations, My Friend! See you in the Premier League in a few seasons. But if they are poor, you will sooner or later find yourself at the bottom on the last division no matter how many times you were lucky at 4.50. Again, be patient and the proper segregation will come.

To sum up, these are just my "see you later" thoughts. I know that I may come back in a month and find our flagship laying at the bottom of the ocean. Still I hope this post will make you, My Friends, think the self-destruction scenario once again

One more thing, the purpose of this message was to point out some things which haven't been pointed out yet. I was not willing to offend anybody and if anybody feel offended, I deeply appologise.

All the best,
Lukasz

Koffieboer · 28-04-03, 09:33

I completely agree with Lukasz.

WhyNot? · 28-04-03, 09:48

Very good point of view Lukasz!

Pick of the day should remain so...IMO...a very good competition!

About the 'other competition'...
1. It will be hard for Tahoma to deal with two 'competitions'. If anyone else wants to be the moderator of it...
2. If we call it competition than i think the word banker is out. In a competition everyone wants to be first. Everyone will try the higher odds and not the safer odds.
3. IMO 3 consecutive sure picks lost is VERY VERY VERY bad!!! It should be allowed 3 losses. Start with 100 and bet everything. After one loses start again 100. These can happened 3 times.
4. Conclusion: NOT to be a competition...but a so called "LET US ALL AGREE ABOUT THE BANKER FOR TODAY"

waitin to see others opinions...and the 'competition' to start!

Cheers,
-paul

Prague · 28-04-03, 10:05

I am sad to see that Tahoma wants to terminate "Pick of the Day" competition. I am not sure about reason, but if it´s just because there´s too much work with counting scores I am ready to help. It would be harm to finish this good competition IMO.

Computer Guy had very good idea with "banker thread", but I think that both can run together without any problems.

I must agree with Tahoma, that initial task of "Pick of the Day" was probably something bit different than it is running now, but for me it still looks OK. Now you can find bankers, value bets, risky picks with high odds just what you want to take. And mainly many good picks on one place (of course you must sort them a bit).

P.S. I can sign what both Lukasz and WhyNot wrote in their posts.

CG · 28-04-03, 11:24

I think that Pick Of The Day should stay exactly as it is.....and this is from someone who will probably end up being relegated because of not posting the required number of picks and losing 100 points from every 'missing' pick. To put it simply, I HATE posting selections where I'm not convinced enough myself to put on my own money. If that ends up with me being at the bottom of the league, then so be it. Id rather be at the bottom due to points being deducted for 'non-picks', than be at the bottom for picks that lost because they were 'guesses'. At least if my posted picks end up in profit, then i've made money, and hopefully anybody following my selections has as well.

As for the Banker Thread......it was meant to be exactly that......a THREAD, not a competition. To try to run a competition around Bankers will probably end up with silly high odds picks being posted and not true bankers and make the 'competition' a farce. Everyone has their own field of expertise, but the true 'bankers' only occur occasionally.

One point i must pick up on is a comment that I think Ikarus made about if Me, Kuki, Lakini etc. all picked the same match as a banker, then he would stick ALL his money on it. This is stupid (no offence meant), bankers can lose, will lose and DO lose. A reliable staking system is still required, even for those 100% certainties!

strandns · 28-04-03, 11:32

I'm totally with Prague and others here :!:
"Pick of the day" became one of the BA's greatest achievments so far, it shoud be really a self-destruct thing to stop it.
"100% banker thread" is great idea, but it shouldn't be a competition, as IKARUS explained, because we want to all together come to one or two picks for a day that are considered as bankers by majority of respectable tipsters.
It's about finding the one you can put a lot of money on, and we couldn't see how many people support one game if the rules order everyone to choose different pick.
Why not run both, one as a competition an one as a daily thread :?:

Lakini · 28-04-03, 12:00

Just one propblem with the Pick Of The Day-thing, that I have noticed - same for myself by the way.

Those who have failed two or three times become nervous, they see they get more and more in the minus and so they try to pick more and more risky because of the higher odds. Which is not good either for the competition nor for the readers, who look for Inspiration.
Actually the world of sports is soooo big, so many leagues and differents sports, it should be easy to find winning picks...Hmmm...difficult.

Palini · 28-04-03, 12:21

My idea was that both competitions would run at the same time and that this banker competition would be a very long competition, till say, the end of this year, (if anyone can stay alive that long).
In my opinon you can find one or two bankers every second week. And it doesn't have to mean that we swamp poor Tahoma with even more work. Everyone could keep their own score and just keep and eye on eachother.

I really hope that Pick of the day will continue, even though maybe with some revisions of the rules again. I think you should be allowed to make the same pick as someone else. Now when the numbers of competitors have grown really big, I'm no longer picking my best pick of the day, since it has often already been taken. That forces me to take my 8th-9th best pick of the day or even worse...
If you are allowed to make the same pick, then you really will see which is the best pick, by just counting which pick that has been taken by most competitors. This makes it possible to "copy" other peoples picks, but I think most of us would like to give their own opinions about the picks. And what's so bad about copying someone elses pick? It's not always easy to select which pick that you think are good or bad.

Lyd · 28-04-03, 12:27

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lakini

Just one propblem with the Pick Of The Day-thing, that I have noticed - same for myself by the way.

Those who have failed two or three times become nervous, they see they get more and more in the minus and so they try to pick more and more risky because of the higher odds. Which is not good either for the competition nor for the readers, who look for Inspiration.
Actually the world of sports is soooo big, so many leagues and differents sports, it should be easy to find winning picks...Hmmm...difficult.

I noticed that too, Lakini, and I agree that some of competitors are in a chase for high odds. But, this is usually obvious and I believe that no one follows picks with high odds just like that. In "Pick of a day" consistency is important thing, and so is in real betting. If you guess one high odd and then you missed five picks, you will be in minus, in points and in money. IMO, everyone that is in even small profit in competition is a winner... in competition we have a restriction not to choose the same pick, so imagine what some of competitors could do in real betting.

Also, I believe no one of us bets only on "bankers". I also don't believe that anyone is betting all his money on one bet. I always prefer good pick with odds 2.00-2.50, then banker on 1.40.

As for me, competition is really good the way it is. Some or guys are really good to follow, not just in this monts, but previous too (I prefer Computer Guy's & Lukasz's picks... your guys really know how to choose

. I also have nothing against a "Banker" thing... but I would agree with Computer Guy that this is not to be a competition, but just a thread with 'banker-bets'.

If Tahoma is having troubles keeping score for all the competitors (I understand it is a huge job now), maybe someone could help him. I could provide help from time to time... but, I don't have experience with asian handicap (don't know how to calculate it)... but maybe three-four people could do it in different days...

Good luck, guys. I hope you won't qiut "Pick of a day"

WhyNot? · 28-04-03, 12:33

About pick of the day...
If u want to follow someone's pick...u must see how his doing...
..so the standings must be updated daily...

It's hard just for one person to do this thing. If there are 4-5 persons the job will be much easier. I can offer to help from time to time...

Good ideea by Lyd!

Cheers
-paul-

IKARUS · 28-04-03, 13:44

I can see the fact which is known to me from the days when I started to bet{my parents would say "from the days when I had gone insane"} - there are two kinds of "players". First kind are players that prefer singles,high stakes, very safe bets with low odds {or even high when it`s safe for them}. They put big money, they don`t play often, sometimes they lose hard, but sometimes they are paying drink to dozens of people.The other kind is playing combos, they play almost every day, for them it`s more for fun.
I`m not considering myself as "player", but I`m planning to play hard at the beginning of next season.So I think that future thread 100% bankers would be more helpfull for first kind of players, and there`s no need to terminate Pick of the day. I agree with Lukasz that Pick of the day will show it`s value after some months.
I will make topic which is going to last `till thursday. Feel free to make some other kind of topic with the bankers if you don`t like this.

28-04-03, 14:07

Some interesting points araised...

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lakini

Those who have failed two or three times become nervous, they see they get more and more in the minus and so they try to pick more and more risky because of the higher odds.

...and they end up on the bottom in both- the competition and the real life. This way of behaviour is one of the first things any betting advice article says you to avoid. Unfortunately, there are always people who know better and prefer to have their eyes and ears covered.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Computer Guy

I HATE posting selections where I'm not convinced enough myself to put on my own money. If that ends up with me being at the bottom of the league, then so be it. Id rather be at the bottom due to points being deducted for 'non-picks', than be at the bottom for picks that lost because they were 'guesses'.

This is the best reason not to make the 15 an obligatory number of picks. "More" doesn't always mean "better". In fact, usually it's just the opposite. To give you an example of what I am thinking of, let's consider punter A and B.
A has -100 points having made 15 bets in a month whereas B could only find 5 value picks last month but they brought him 100 points. The question is who is better. In this case our standings and bookmakers account status don't agree and this is why it may be reasonable to think over the rule of -100 per missing bet once again. After all, there's no difference if you earn your money with 5 or 15 bets( apart from higher yield, which is higher in the first case which means you risked less money to make the profit).

One more, the most controversial idea...
Everybody have noticed the moderators are somewhat back with updating the standings. It's obviously not their fault. There must be hell of work with it so I think everybody who takes part in the competition should also be responsible for counting the results. Not all of them of course. Let's say on each day 3 people from each division count the results for their league and send them to the mods who make an update in the standings. I mean, we all benefit from the Pick of the Day so we all should contribute. I am aware of the fact that many will withdraw, but we will know that those who stayed, take the competition seriously and are not, sorry, parasites. And please, don't tell me you don't have time to check daily results. Imagine what Tahoma and Koffieboer are going through doing it day by day.

Well, enough of talking. Back to books

Lukasz · 28-04-03, 14:09

It was me. Sorry.

tahoma · 30-04-03, 14:26

I have now read your opinions in this thread and this is what I had in mind for the next round:

No time limit or obligatory number of picks
As CG wrote, some contestants have posted bad picks just because they needed to complete 15 picks before deadline. I also don't think 15 picks are enough to see if someone is making a steady profit. For example, last rounds winner, lsorin has now the worst score of all contestants with only one correct pick out of 11! 8O Was he only lucky in the previous round or is he just in bad form at the moment? I think we should appoint the winner at the end of the year (Dec 31) or when the competition ends for any other reason (lack of interest, etc). This will surely show us who's making best profit in the long run! A contestant can join whenever he wants.
Unit system like Bettingadvice' (1-10 units) and no odd limit
If the competition will go on till the last day of December, I don't see why there should be an odd limit. If a contestant take odds around 1.15 everyday, he will surely make a small profit or lose if one of 8 picks is wrong. Also if if someone is lucky with a bet @ 12.5 once, he will probably also lose in the long run if he continue to take these high odds. With this change, everyone can choose its own strategy! Take HT/FT 1/X all the time if you want, the important thing is to see if it's giving profit in the long run! I personally prefer to bet on "bankers", but if I once have a good feeling for a risky value bet, I don't wanna lose the same stake as I lose with an unsuccessful banker! Therefore all contestants will have to write units for their pick. 1/10 unit = minimum stake, 5 units = medium stake, 10/10 units = maximum stake. If a contestant post a correct pick with price 2.25 with 7/10 units, his profit for the pick will be 8.75 (7 x 2.25 - 7). If it's wrong he will lose 7 points. This unit system is good because you always see how confident (or how much the contestant is willing to stake) the contestant is on his pick.
No league system
The idea of dividing the contestants in different "leagues" was great, however I don't think I will continue with this system. It's harder to see who's leading the hole competition when there are more than one table. It's also too hard for the contestants in division 2 to get promoted to div 1 and only 5 of 18 contestants from PL and div 1 made profit (so far)! :evil: I still think we will see the most profitable contestants at the top of the table and the worst at the bottom. It's also easier to correct the picks with only on table. There was also lack of prestige in the leagues!
Allow people to take same pick as anyone else
I guess most of you are " " for this change. When the competition only lasted one month, I was afraid that "contestant A" on first place would take the same pick as "contestant B" on second place, because then "contestant A" would win independent of the result of the pick! Now when the competition is longer, I don't think we will see this problem here. I hope instead that many people will agree with each other but give different arguments for the pick!
Only allow members with a minimum of 50 posts to participate
8O ? I'm not sure about this rule yet, but let me explain why I suggest it: More and more people join Bettingadvice' everyday. I think the same thing will happen to the competition if I don't add this rule. People will just register to this forum to participate in the competition (I've seen many doing that!). What's wrong with that? Well it's frustrating to spend time updating the standings and see many people just posting one (often bad) pick and then never write again. I wanna see a table with a lot of activity, not just the ones at the top. And I don't wanna take away all the attention from the other subforums, so please post there as well! It's hard to explain the reason for this rule, but I think you get the point.

Basically I want to make a table where all members have a chance to show their betting skills! It's pretty simular to Bettingadvice' General picks-section, but here you don't have to request for a chance, just prove yourself with your picks! I think it will be very interesting to see after a few months who's at the top of the list!

As you may have noticed, I've been pretty slow with updating the standinsg lately. I think there will be even more picks everyday this time, so I will surely need some help. I was suggesting that Koffieboer, Prague (?) and I could update 2 days each week. For example, Koffieboer updates Monday and Tuesday's picks, Prague takes Wednesday and Sunday and I take the picks on the weekends. This can surely be discussed between us and we could change days every week so it's suitable for us.

These are only my suggestions, but unless you totally disagree with me, I will start with these new rules tomorrow! So please write your opinions before it's too late!

Sorry for my bad/basic English! :wink:

tahoma

Koffieboer · 30-04-03, 14:55

I don't like these rules at all, I think it is a great step back.

Arbiter Elegantiarum · 30-04-03, 14:58

Quote:

Originally Posted by Koffieboer

I don't like these rules at all, I think it is a great step back.

Agree. In my humble opinion league system is a wonderful thing and after some months it will surely become a money-macine.

Transforming "Pick of the day" to "General picks for all" will be in long term a little boring.

But tahoma is the boss and I`ll stick to whatever he`ll make cos I want to participate.

Koffieboer · 30-04-03, 15:17

The best solution is to keep track of peoples scores by using a spreadsheet. This is the first step in solving a lot of problems people have now. I will explain. The most heard comments are that picks are taken and people have trouble to reach fifteen picks. But a solution to widthen the time interval is not a good one. It is a must to compare people on a short time basis, or else the competition has no meaning besides a long term one. I suggest that a rolling ranking is being used. Contestant's last 20 picks, and when they haven't made a contribution in the last five days, an automatic loss will be added. People who are below a certain level will be kicked out of the spreadsheet. Inactive users will be swept. A second advantage is that you can calculate a monthly standing in seconds. And why do you want to use a units system? The result will be that the competition will be flooded with idiotic odds at small stakes. So far for the bankers idea. When you allow people to repeat picks by others, then the copycats have free road. If someone follows every pick of two persons, a couple will overlap, and he will have a better profit dan both (assuming they have a positive expectation) because he makes more winning picks. I can't believe you change your opinion so many times. A lot of idea's brought by contestants before this month were used because they were good, and now they are set aside very impulsively (and not for the better).

Lyd · 30-04-03, 15:25

Tahoma, you could give some more time to discuss some ideas here, especially it there will be no monthly competition, then we dont have to start on May 1st.

With some of your ideas I completely agree, about some i'm not sure... let's see...

No time limit or obligatory number of picks

Those limits are good if competition is just for fun - then we need to cope with some rules we don't have in real betting. For me, "Pick of a day" was a game, game for fun, game in which you have to present your skill to find good pick 15 times a month, and to find among those which are not already taken. Of course, I couldn't always pick my best match of a day, but i think that was problem to all of us... but the rules were the same for everyone, and that is most important thing... But, if we just want to see who makes a profit in a long run, then we don't need this rules.

Unit system like Bettingadvice' (1-10 units) and no odd limit

I completely agree with this new rule. One of the basic things in betting is staking system. With this rule, competitors who know how to manage their funds will be much successful - like in real life.
I also agree there shouldn't be no odd limit. If someone wants to bet whole month only on 1-X, let him do it. We will all see his balance at the end... (same with those who like 1,15 odds)

No league system

Since i like games, I like league system, too. It is fun to see who is getting promoted or relegated. You also realized that in Premier league and First division competition was not on high level. If you look at the table of Division 2, you'll se much more uncertainity... in Division 2, if you have one right pick with high odds, you can climb up to 10 places in the table... and opposite. This is because there is small number od competitiors in Premier ans First D, and there can be not such excitement.

My sugestion would be to keep the league system, but - to form Premier league, Division 1 and Division 2 with 20 competitiors in each. We now have enough competitors for that (Maybe we have enough fr Division 3, too?). Also, there should be more competitors promoted/relegated - i think the best/worst SIX in each division each month could change their league status.

Allow people to take same pick as anyone else

You said that many competitors will be glad to hear that, but i'm not one of them

I think that we will have many competitors who will just follow picks and analysis from experienced punters. Maybe not from the start, but after a while we will have leaders and followers. Therefore, many competitors will agree on a same pick, so we won't be able to see explanations and arguements for some other possible, also good picks.

Only allow members with a minimum of 50 posts to participate

I'm also not sure about it. I understand you have a problem with so many picks from many inactive users (someone mentioned "parasytes" here . But, I think this rule would be unfair for some people.

And, at the end - conclusion . My sugestion would be that you change number of competitors in each division. League system will show his best only if give him chance for several months. I would introduce obligatory staking system in units. I would quit obligatory number of 15 picks; instead, we could have minumum of 10 picks a month, maxumim 30 (or 31) - each day. (If someone is able to make profit with each day betting, let him do it . I would suggest minimum number of picks, because someone could be lucky to guess first few, and then just waiting to be promoted No odd limit! No same pick!

Thanx for reading. That was my two cents

Arbiter Elegantiarum · 30-04-03, 15:27

Quote:

Originally Posted by Koffieboer

And why do you want to use a units system? The result will be that the competition will be flooded with idiotic odds at small stakes. So far for the bankers idea. When you allow people to repeat picks by others, then the copycats have free road. If someone follows every pick of two persons, a couple will overlap, and he will have a better profit dan both (assuming they have a positive expectation) because he makes more winning picks.

Well said! I couldn`t express it so good. Totally agree, POTD in current form is great and why changing it?

tahoma · 30-04-03, 16:48

Well, I'm surprised that you didn't agree with the new rules, but I'm happy that there's still much interest for the competition!

I won't start the new competition tomorrow (1st of May), so please keep sharing your comments here and let's have a discussion!

I know there will be many "copycats" if everybody is allow to take the same pick, but in my opinion there are many of those already. When someone posts a good pick, I see people taking all kind of simular bets on the same team. HT/FT (1/1 and sometimes X/1 when 1/1 has already been taken), HT, handicaps, first team to score, etc.

About the league system, I just think it's pretty strange that the best contestants don't play in the top division and the champion will probably often come from lower divisions. I play in the top division, but I would really prefer to be in the middle of a table with all contestants.

I still think getting rid of the league system is the best solution as I think the people who deserves it, will be at the top in the table with all contestants. I think it's the best way to see who are the best tipsters around - in the long run. I think more people will follow for example CG if he has 35/44 instead of 3/3 after a few days in a new month.

tahoma

Arbiter Elegantiarum · 30-04-03, 17:00

Quote:

Originally Posted by tahoma

About the league system, I just think it's pretty strange that the best contestants don't play in the top division and the champion will probably often come from lower divisions. I play in the top division, but I would really prefer to be in the middle of a table with all contestants.

I still think getting rid of the league system is the best solution as I think the people who deserves it, will be at the top in the table with all contestants. I think it's the best way to see who are the best tipsters around - in the long run. I think more people will follow for example CG if he has 35/44 instead of 3/3 after a few days in a new month.

tahoma

This was the first month of league system. Current standings for divisions are not representative. League system is to see the consistency. After lets say 5 months we will clearly see who maintains good form all over the time. "One-month-sensations" will be relegated and it will be a warning not to follow their predictions blindly unitil they`ll prove in long term. Hovewer, monthly system is great and clearly better then yearly. Thats because as I noticed, we punters, similar to sportsman, have a good form or bad form, hot streaks and cold streaks. Monthly ratings are good to see who is hot on current time - in long term standings for example if someone was red-hot in 5 months and have this lets say 50/75 hit ratio, but now he is on bad run(simply have low intelligence biorythm now or something else), we would not see that he is in bad form from stats - and we would follow him(as he prove himself in past) but we will probably lose due to he is in bad form - because we will not see that he is in bad form from yearly table. Monthly ratings show current form - I think it is important.

I hope I expressed myself clearly, lol, sorry for any misunderstandings.

PRAG · 30-04-03, 17:01

I agree 100% with Koffieboer and Arbiter !!! A brief personal example : Though I never thought too seriously of the competition, I gave my best efforts and comments in my picks... I did terribly this month, which is more or less expected when I'm averaging ca. 3.00 per succesful pick because I'm commited to risky picks. Thus, for the last few days I've set a ''target'' for myself NOT to be 'relegated', since those were the rules as posted in early April... Now, all this effort -together with similar 'efforts' for different targets of many other friends here - will be negated ! Rule changes ARE often good, but a standard STRUCTURE of the competition should remain constant in my humble opinion...

Lukasz · 30-04-03, 19:09

Just a few comments:

No obligatory number of picks
and
Allow people to take same pick as anyone else...

It is obvious that these two should be considered together since the number of picks
per month will greatly depend on the second rule. Koffieboer's and Lyd's arguments
to leave the rule alone are more than sufficent.
Lyd also suggested that the minimal
number of tips should be 10 as those lucky at the beginning would sit and wait for the promotion.
I have to admit that I have also considered the idea. The thing is that I still don't see a reason
why a punter with o profit with 5 bets made should be placed lower in the statndings than the one with
no profit or loss after 10 picks. The situation mentioned by Lyd is of course probable, but won't happen
very often since no one can always be lucky. He may be promoted but sooner or later will have to battle
against relegation if his luck isn't supported with skills in finding value bets. Even in such a high-standard
league like Premiership, teams like Sunderland happen.
This of course will make sens only if the league system is kept.

No league system...

Tahoma wrote, that it was harder to see who is leading the whole competition. It's quite clear for me: the leader of the Premier League. Please,
show me a country in which the winner of the 3rd division plays in the Champions League instead of the team who placed 1st in the best league of the country simply,
because it has gathered more points. You are right when you say that our Premier is not the best but it will if we consequently stick to the league system. Again,
time, time and time is needed. Please, please, please, let us be patient.
Tahoma also wrote that it's too difficult for those in the 2rd division to promote. We might consider increasing the number of competitors who get promoted( but only between the 1st and the 2nd). Not to much, though.
Because this may lead to another "Isorin's case" mentioned by Tahoma. It still should be difficult to achieve a promotion!

The idea with rating system similar to Bettingadvice' General picks-section is magnificent:

It gives everyone the same chances of winning the competition and it shows the long term profit/loss, in which it's much better in examining betting skills than the short term league system.
The thing is that it's not half as interesting as the latter. After some time there will be no competition at all. Those with a loss on their account will withdraw and the remaining 10 (if we are lucky)
will have nothing to fight for because of the huge differences between them( caused by the long duration of the competition).

Unit system like Bettingadvice' (1-10 units)

Lyd wrote:
"I completely agree with this new rule. One of the basic things in betting is staking system. With this rule, competitors who know how to manage their funds will be much successful - like in real life."
How true, My Friend. It's trully reasuring to se someone not underestimating the importance of the money management in succesful betting. However, in this case I would never allow
punters to use unit system for the following reasons:

1. There are punters who have great skills at finding value bets but no knowledge about money managenent. Thich may ruin their score and present as poor tipsters in the statndings. As a result no one will benefit from their
good picks because no one will follow them.
2. You surely know that fixed stakes( which that we are using now in the competition) is also a staking plan. I would even dare to say it's one of the best systems. Only when you make a profit on level stakes you can experiment
with, let's say, fixed profit, Kelly and , if you are stupid enough, Martingale or any other progresive plan. With the level stakes we get a picture of the best tipsters and we can simply take their picks and adjust a staking plan depending on our risk profile and greed. Allowing competitors to manipulate with their stakes here would blure this picture.

Only allow members with a minimum of 50 posts to participate...

Well, the same as you I am not sure about this one. I leave it to you since since it's moderators who get frustrated by the one-time-pick-publishers.

My conclusion:
Let's leave the competition as it is now removing the minimal number of picks. And most importantly: be patient.

Back to books.

PS
I don't even have time to read this stuff so I hope it makes sense.

CG · 30-04-03, 20:02

To me, the only 'fault' with Pick Of The Day was the 'compulsory 15 picks in the month' part. Through past experience with my betting, I know I could keep my strike rate in the 85%+ bracket if I only bet when I wanted to, and not when I felt that i 'had' to.