Eurobasket,Day 11,19.09.2009. Semi-finals,5-8 places round

Pavle Siljak · 18-09-09, 23:01

Here is the first odds from BWIN for tommorows games:

(12:00) France-Turkey 1,45 2,75
(18:30) Spain-Greece 1,22 4,40
(21:15) Serbia-Slovenia 2,10 1,74

There is still no odds for game Russia-Croatia (14:15)

tipster81 · 19-09-09, 00:03

slovenia @2 bluesquare and +1.5 @1.91 looks too high to me since i consider them slightly favourite

cassano · 19-09-09, 00:05

Posted on last day's section also, game of Spain against Greece.

Every HC below 10 points is worth taking. No way that Greece will compete against Spain's guards. Spanoulis played 41 minutes, Zisis 38 and Fotsis 43. Very tired team that showed bad plays today against on fire team. Plus very bad head to head, plus quality on Spain's side. I didn't need anything else to go heavy on Spain -7,5. Nice bet is also HT HC, as Spain go full strengh at the start of their games

thimiana · 19-09-09, 00:17

The only advantage for Greece is that there is no pressure in the team for todays game. Everybody knows Spain is the big favorite. Players speak about to win a medal, not to go to final. Hope always exists, but team is very tired (against Turkey only 7 players used) and Spain started to roll the right moment. Spain to cover 7.5 points is worth to be taken. I believe the only way to see a close game is Spain to repeat a bad performance like the beggining and Greece to reach a best one.

New_Zealand · 19-09-09, 00:29

Quote:

Originally Posted by tipster81

slovenia @2 bluesquare and +1.5 @1.91 looks too high to me since i consider them slightly favourite

i wouldn't even consider bet on Slovenia. First, Serbia had day rest. Second, Serbian players are younger, they can recover more quickly, while Slovenians already have Smodis+Dragic out plus some players don't look fully fit. Lakovic and E.Lorbek played 40 mins tonight!

I will probably bet Russia and France since i expect Croatia and Turkey to fall apart totally after such defeats. As Turks are already qualified for WC they have nothing to play for and rested France should easily take care of them.
What to say about Croatia? can't believe how poor they played after getting that 15 points lead. No way they will recover knowing their mentality. Russians also had day rest and didn't spend much energy against Serbia since match was practically decided early in 3rd Q.

tipster81 · 19-09-09, 01:16

new zealand, this is my opinion, take it as it is. anyway, i respect your point of view but i want to add something to this:
slovenia has some players on bench, probably not the same quality as starters but not so bad if they are here, players like Jagodnik or Golemac (played a lot against serbia in 2nd day) could give something more to the team than today.
Today victory against croatia i think will boost slovenian's team a lot, they knew they MUST reach sf and beat croatia, now they get their first goal i think they'll feel less pressure on themselves.Not to forget slovenia didn't lost a match till now (they do only against spain, and it was o.t), i think they get the right winning mentality they haven't in the past, thanks to a more mature lakovic and lorbek. at the end, i have no news about smodis...do you? if he will play anyway it'll be a bonus, not certainly a malus (while i saw today nachbar and domen recovered from injuries)

i didn't mention the second day when teams met in a round match i saw, and slovenia was up + 10 or more during almost the whole match, cause there were some things like serbian's tiredness, dragic absence now (he was one of the best that day),.....so even if it was a no contest, i can't consider it too much.
i'm sure it will be tight game tomorrow, but for these reasons i just take what i think is a valuable bet cause i see slovenia set as favourite and the odd imho is the most important thing in betting
If bookies would have offered +4/+4.5 on serbia, probably i would have bet on them.

cheers

vezalke · 19-09-09, 02:30

Quote:

Originally Posted by New_Zealand

i wouldn't even consider bet on Slovenia. First, Serbia had day rest. Second, Serbian players are younger, they can recover more quickly, while Slovenians already have Smodis+Dragic out plus some players don't look fully fit. Lakovic and E.Lorbek played 40 mins tonight!

I will probably bet Russia and France since i expect Croatia and Turkey to fall apart totally after such defeats. As Turks are already qualified for WC they have nothing to play for and rested France should easily take care of them.
What to say about Croatia? can't believe how poor they played after getting that 15 points lead. No way they will recover knowing their mentality. Russians also had day rest and didn't spend much energy against Serbia since match was practically decided early in 3rd Q.

I am from Slovenia, but lets be objective here. Croats hits almost everything in fist half + they had some very doubtful, not to mention funny decisions (referees) against Slovenians. In the second half it was shown the true quality of Slovenia when it comes to defense and if it were the same in the first half it would be something like 75-58 for Slovenia in the end...It will be much harder against Serbia, but I believe we can win against them once again. Serbia played very well against Slovenia in the first part!!! Just take a look at the stats! Nevertheless, they were trailing by 10 points for the 3/4 and couldn't get closer than 7-8 points.

Rado · 19-09-09, 02:38

France is free money to me. Turks' last 2 matches went overtime and they are tired both mentally and phisically. This match will be played just 15 hours after last clash. Players seemed tired today and I guess how they will be against France where a victory means nothing. Tanjevic most likely will rotate squad. France needs a win and I am almost sure they will do the job easily.

New_Zealand · 19-09-09, 02:51

Quote:

Originally Posted by vezalke

I am from Slovenia, but lets be objective here. Croats hits almost everything in fist half + they had some very doubtful, not to mention funny decisions (referees) against Slovenians. In the second half it was shown the true quality of Slovenia when it comes to defense and if it were the same in the first half it would be something like 75-58 for Slovenia in the end...It will be much harder against Serbia, but I believe we can win against them once again. Serbia played very well against Slovenia in the first part!!! Just take a look at the stats! Nevertheless, they were trailing by 10 points for the 3/4 and couldn't get closer than 7-8 points.

guys, i agree with most of you said but... Serbians will be much more fresh and think it's risky to bet on tired Slovenians, Lakovic their best player looked totally exhausted in the end of tonights match. if Serbia start strong, with their great defense, i don't think Slovenia will be able to come back like they did against Croatia. Don't forget match Serbia-Slovenia was played right after late night's match Serbia-Spain and Serbians of course couldn't play on same level like they did against Spain. anyway, it's no bet for me.

my bets will be France and Russia for reasons wrote in previous post.

Jungle-s · 19-09-09, 02:51

Lazy, slovenia against turkey (slovenia -4), greece against turkey ( greece), made our day awesome.

And now, turkey against france, time to turkey with gold-odds, are you with me?

Time to win for turkey. i can not see what handicaps now. but believe that turkey going to win this match with + handicaps.

Lazy A$$ · 19-09-09, 03:40

My only opinion for today can be found here: Serbia-Slovenia and I advise you to take it before the odds drop.

I decided not to bet on Greece-Spain, even though I still believe the Greeks could keep it below 10-point difference eventually, but I guess there are just too many uknowns there, like will Spain show their face from the first matches or, was their performance against France just a good day or they're already in top form... etc.

About the 5th place matches, skip all those muggish affairs. The teams will play careless, yup, World Cup is at stake, but most of the sides are exhausted and France, Turkey surely didn't want to be there. While Croatia and Russia surely did, but since these two motivated teams will meet each other, it's just impossible to figure out who'll win as both are not too good in general, and the bookies also figured the same by setting pretty much even odds.

So, Serbia-Slovenia is pretty much the only game I'll be focusing on today. GL.

Bubici · 19-09-09, 08:05

Turkey hosts next WC so they don't need this win badly. France on the other hand, needs it badly. They had a day off, and after Turkey's loss yesterday they should fail strongly, it's well known Southern Europe sindrom

Any injuries for Turkey from yesterday?

dergam · 19-09-09, 08:22

At the end of the game Slo-Cro there was not so much pressure on whistle, so harder defence was allowed by referees that take Slovenia in semis for good. Croatia fells three times against defence in similar way.
Slovenia is now tired like a hell, Lorbek played 20 sec less than 40 mins and only playmaker Lakovic did it 40 mins. But not so sure abut it they played most all tournament seems they are true heroes or drink red bull playing like beast in defence.
Expect Serbia to shoot down Lakovic, but Slovenia will be dangerous under the rim, where they have much better experienced players. Seems Adriatic league is now showing what kind of layers coming from, especially from Serbia, pure gems. Serbia have 2 and half equal 5 men on the floor, one defence minded and one attack minded like in NFL

. Serbia was really high after win against Spain in first round, but Slovenia took them down. Now they are aware of all Slovenia powers.

Both teams have already made primary tasks, qualification for next main basketball competitions. This in something new for both, Serbia have more experienced coach, but much more inexperienced players. They will learn something today and if money will not let them down like most older Serbian players abroad then they can dominate basketball world for least 10 years with these guys.

Wiseguy · 19-09-09, 08:30

France 1.50 must be bet of the day.

I am more then sure France is maximum motivated here, they want badly to play WC in Turkey next year and now after this NBA players have been fighting over 2 months instead of been resting I am sure that they will not take the chance against tired Turkey which have almost nothing to play for. Sure France lost big against SPain, but SPain is mega strong will win with big margin even today.

Jungle-s · 19-09-09, 10:19

Quote:

Originally Posted by Wiseguy

France 1.50 must be bet of the day.

I am more then sure France is maximum motivated here, they want badly to play WC in Turkey next year and now after this NBA players have been fighting over 2 months instead of been resting I am sure that they will not take the chance against tired Turkey which have almost nothing to play for. Sure France lost big against SPain, but SPain is mega strong will win with big margin even today.

spain also lost against Turkey? and yesterday, slovenia was tired but what was score? and turkey wants to good finish the tournament, 4win, 2 lost and after that 5 win 2 lost better than 4 win 3 lost, when you look back

BORO77 · 19-09-09, 12:26

Russia, Serbia, Spain. All bankers imo.
Beautiful odds on Russia and Serbia.
I cant remember that croatia ever won a relegation game after being knocked out in the
1/4 final. The players are mentally so weak, also not intelligent at all as we saw yesterday

)
I heard Blatt would get sacked if he doesnt qualify for the WC in Turkey.
I dont rate russian team at all but it is must bet against Croatia who managed to lose last nights game after 15pts lead.

The final will be Serbia - Spain i am sure and spaniards will take revenge for the 1st round loss.
Serbia had 1 day rest, a lot of guys on fire, slovenia almost lost to croatia so that is enough to say about their quality atm, without some very important players and some players playing not fully fit. I expect slovenia to have difficulties because reserve players are not that good and everything relying on 5-6 guys is too much for so many games in short period.
With smodis, dragic and udrih it would be much different but as they cant play serbia is big value imo.
I think Slovenia will finish 4th, bronze for greeks.

dalibor · 19-09-09, 12:36

Quote:

Originally Posted by BORO77

Russia, Serbia, Spain. All bankers imo.
Beautiful odds on Russia and Serbia.
I cant remember that croatia ever won a relegation game after being knocked out in the
1/4 final. The players are mentally so weak, also not intelligent at all as we saw yesterday

)
I heard Blatt would get sacked if he doesnt qualify for the WC in Turkey.
I dont rate russian team at all but it is must bet against Croatia who managed to lose last nights game after 15pts lead.

The final will be Serbia - Spain i am sure and spaniards will take revenge for the 1st round loss.
Serbia had 1 day rest, a lot of guys on fire, slovenia almost lost to croatia so that is enough to say about their quality atm, without some very important players and some players playing not fully fit. I expect slovenia to have difficulties because reserve players are not that good and everything relying on 5-6 guys is too much for so many games in short period.
With smodis, dragic and udrih it would be much different but as they cant play serbia is big value imo.
I think Slovenia will finish 4th, bronze for greeks.

I dont support your pick on Russia.This team simply dont posses enough quality and first match was really close,where Mozgov dominated,now could be different

catapeshte · 19-09-09, 12:36

i hate france

Raffie · 19-09-09, 13:00

M. Popovi***263; under 10.5
1.85 (Sportingbet)
5/10

In yesterday match play total lame. Today in my opinion he not shoot 10.5, because Russia good defence. Popovic have good match with France, but at this moment away team good defend this player.

kkkkk · 19-09-09, 13:01

Quote:

Originally Posted by catapeshte

i hate france

why?

Corinthian · 19-09-09, 13:03

Quote:

Originally Posted by BORO77

I cant remember that croatia ever won a relegation game after being knocked out in the
1/4 final.

Youre memory is very poor. Better stop spaming if you don't have anything smart to say.

catapeshte · 19-09-09, 13:19

Quote:

Originally Posted by kkkkk

why?

bcuz they won

BORO77 · 19-09-09, 14:20

I wrote in my 1st post:

I dont rate russian team at all but it is must bet against Croatia who managed to lose last nights game after 15pts lead.

When have we won an important relegation game and come back after a tough loss??never.

Prija · 19-09-09, 14:41

Spain (-9.5) - Greece (+9.5)

I don't know if this underestimation of Greece is a result of impressive play of Spain in quarterfinal or it is cause Greece played a tough game yesterday finished in overtime, but whatever it is i'll take it. Spain played finally some good basketball, totally overmatched France who were clueless how to play them with awful Tony Parker in charge. Greece is a team full of great competitors and with a very good coach Kazlauskas in charge so don't expect something similar to happen again. Greece is just a slight underdog imo against Spain and I believe we'll see a very interesting match.
Pick: A, Odds: 1.90, Stake: 8, Bookmaker: Unibet

pfc123 · 19-09-09, 14:51

Serbia banker are you crazy man ? Slovenia is better team and if they dont have these injuries and if they didnt play yesterday i would surely bet on them ... with all this things Serbia has chances i agree and not small chances but talking about banker is funny

Raffie · 19-09-09, 16:03

Quote:

Originally Posted by Raffie

M. Popovi***263; under 10.5
1.85 (Sportingbet)

5/10

J. Lakovi***263; [Slovenia] over 13.0
1.85 (Expekt)
5/10

Lakovi***263; in yesterday's match, scored 11 points, being in the shadow of Lorbek. Today, the Serbs will focus on Lorbek and Lakovi***263; should be mad, because the Serbs have no guards low. Lakovi***263; measures only 186 cm, and the Serbian playmaker Tedosi***263; - 195 cm. What in the meeting group scored 16 points playing 31 minutes. Today will play 38-40, so there is a chance that the throw over.

Highroller · 19-09-09, 16:20

Well Spain is total favourite in this game and they had great results but spread is just too big for such event. Nice preview for this game is at:
http://www.betshoot.com/betting-prev...8-Spain-Greece

I agree with it and will play it with medium stake.

Lazy A$$ · 19-09-09, 22:16

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lazy A$$

My only opinion for today can be found here: Serbia-Slovenia and I advise you to take it before the odds drop.

....

So, Serbia-Slovenia is pretty much the only game I'll be focusing on today. GL.

Serbian team is the youngest one at this Eurobasket, but has surely the biggest heart of all. What a comeback ,what a match, they're in the finals again, after a very long time.

Bwin needs to cash out some serious money now.

Congrats and hope you all followed

AllenR34 · 19-09-09, 22:20

I hope everyone followed

tipster81 · 19-09-09, 22:23

well i was right about the closing odds (it was about 81-82 on betfair). I was right too about slovenia boosted up...and i was right about better quality time frome the bench (did you see jagodnik?) and until erazem was in the game, it was not an even match..but he did 4th and 5th stupid offensive fouls and went out of the game.
Where i was TOTALLY WRONG it was speaking about a mature jaka lakovic, who loses the game alone in the regular: i can accept you missed a fundamental free throw cause you are tired, but i can't leave you did this stupid foul on teodosic shooting from three. That was silly, even if you are giving your most effort. And he decided to get the last clutch shot, even if he wasn't scoring a basket in the whole match...and then continue shooting alone in the o.t, trying to be the hero of a nation and don't passing the ball. Then it was too late to come back.
anyway, serbia deserved to win cause they never give up

good luck to serb in final, but i think it will be an impossible task to beat twice spain.