POD, 30.05

[greenpower]

this is a "thankyou" message for the sponser of the POD competition Terje!

p.s. all retired or what? may be I am the winner for this month for my obstinate insistance to look after hypothetical surprises?

[greenpower]

#9 (2w-0v-6l) -383
Football, B Grupa ***8220;East***8221; Bulgaria
Pick : Beroe Stara Zagora ***8211; Kaliakra Kavarna X
Odds : around 6 (Betsafe), 3,5 for the competition


Three rounds before the end of season, Beroe need a win today to promote mathematically to the highest Bulgarian division ***8211; A grupa. The fans expect nothing but a win today, and celebrations preparations are underway.
On the other hand, Kaliakra are third, but they don***8217;t have any chance to get the second place entitling to a playoff for A-Grupa (the second-best teams of B Grupas ***8220;East***8221; and ***8220;West***8221; will contend one promotion place in one game at neutral venue). Meaning, they will play only for their pride today. They are not a weak team (5-4-1 in their last 10 games; 3-2-1 in their last 6 away games!) Today, I expect them to try to show their best game against Beroe and win prestigious point(s) against the leader. Well, I don***8217;t expect an away win, but a draw is quite possible, especially if the news from the game of the second-placed Naftex against Spartak Plovdiv are beneficial for Beroe (in case of draw of loss of Naftex, Beroe do not need to win to promote).
No substantial absences for the two teams (may be only the fast winger Atanasov will be an important miss for Beroe, as he often ***8220;opens***8221; difficult games with his speed at the flank). All in all, I expect a cautious game by the hosts, and in case they don***8217;t need to win, they will not push hard at the end.

LOST (1-0)

[vercingetorixxx]

Pick #9 (so far 5/0/3 +185)
Romanian 1st Division
Faru Constanta ***8211; Gaz Metan Medias
Pick: Draw, odds 3,2 bookie: Bet365

A relegation battle today, between the 15th and the 16th teams of the championship.
Farul are coming into this game without any important missing but they are 99% relegated. They still suggest they will get 3 points from TAS, after the interrupted game against Poli Iasi, but these are only sweet dreams for them. Their play recommends them to Second Division. They have a lot of young and inexperienced players who can***8217;t cope at the first division level.

Medias will come into this game searching for 1 point. After Bistrita***8217;s win from yesterday, and the expected wins of Iasi and Galati from today, the 14th position remains a dream for them. BUT, in an interview from last week, their president, Ioan Horoba, stated their objective is the 15th position, because Arges will be relegated after the corruption scandal. He is in Romanian football for more then 20 years and, for sure, he really knows what he***8217;s talking about. In the last round, Medias will have a difficult game against CFR so the moment to take that point and to seal Farul***8217;s relegation is today. They will miss for this game suspended Lazar, Nohai, Parvulescu and Dudita and injured Semeghin and Rafael. Parvulescu and Dudita are important offensive players and, without them, Medias will probably take a defensive aproach.

For this reasons, I will try the draw, with low stakes. Good luck.

LOST (2-0)

[shymek]

Pick number 9
4/8 +92

Lech Poznan - Cracovia Kraków
30.05.2009 17:00 CET
Football - Polish Ekstraklasa

Pick: Lech Poznan (-1) EH
Odds: 3.10 Bet365

Why?
Hello! Lech have only ilusory chances to win the league and Cracovia's staying in Ekstraklasa is ilusion too. Nevertheless I expect great game and big win for Poznan.
This is the last series of polish league. Theoretically Lech can be champion, but only if Wisla Krakow losses at home and Lech win today. It's almost impossible. But hosts should fight and play good last game under coach Franciszek Smuda. On the other hand, Cracovia must win in order to stay in Ekstraklasa. Surely they will fight. But let's see the table: Lech Poznan - 58 points, 49 goals scored, Cracovia - 29 points, 22 goals scored. There can only be one favourite in this encounter.
Odds on visitors are dropping. Maybe it's because fans of both clubs "like themselves" (if I can say that way), and Lech could help his poorer brother. But I don't believe in deals like that. I believe in good game. Hosts have better team, everybody knows that. But this team has been disappointing their fans this year. Because of streaks of draws against average teams, especially at home, Lech won't be the champion. Nevertheless I hope they will try to satisfy their fans today. What's quite important, there are no absences in Kolejorz's squad, so they can be strong if they want. Visitors don't have injuries in their team too.
Cracovia will try to show ambition, power and fighting spirit. But they will have to face nicely organized team with good offense. I hope Lech will be attacking and will score some goals today. Good luck!

LOST (2-2)

[The Ring]

4/9 +432

PICK #10


Lokomotiv Moscow - Spartak Moscow 1 @3.35 Will Hill
Stake: 4/10


It is a big russian derby game, which is very important for both of the teams! Both teams are far enough from the top in order to search only for the win here. Lokomotiv are even further with 8 points to the leader and definetely needs the win here. Lokomotiv are pretty good at home winning 3 and drawing 2 from 5! Semin ex-coach of Dinamo Kiev, who brought them to the semi-finals of UEFA Cup and won the championship in Ukraine, will be in charge for Loko and I hope he will win his first game!
Spartak are currently the better team with the better squad and the deeper bench, but afterall it is a moscow derby and everything is possible. Also Spartak are playing really crappy away from home, despite winning against champions Rubin 2:0!! Spartak lost against FK Moscow when visiting in another Moscow derby, and interesting enough Lokomotiv have the same record at home as them - 3w 2d 0l!
Last game Spartak humiliated Amkar 5:1 and I have noticed that after such big wins big teams pretty commonly doesnt win their next game! On the other hand Lokomotiv lost against Rubin in the last game, but at home they trashed 4:0 Terek!
In last 6 games - 5 of them was won by Lokomotiv and one finished in 2:2 draw - after Loko was leading 2:0 at HT at home, they conceded 2 in the second half - 2nd one in the 90th minute!?!

WON (2-1)

[kemp]

Pick #9

Update to stats: 5/7 (+1 bet pending Suarez Navarro): +499
(after pending bet finished: -399 or +689)

WTA Roland Garros

S.Williams - M. Martinez-Sanchez 2 @4.81 Pinnacle (@3.50 for POTD)

Yesterday Venus said goodbye to Paris, today I see Serena doing the same. Both sisters didn't come to Roland Garros in great form. Serena had very tough 1st round match vs. Zakopalova, making numerous unforced errors. Though she walked past Ruano-Pascual with ease in the 2nd rnd, this 3rd round match will be much harder for her and she'll have to sweat to win points. Martinez Sanchez is an in-form clay-digger and she beat two hot players - Kutuzova and Peng.. Before RG whe had nice Rome tournament where she defeated Mauresmo, Bartoil, Petrova and took a set off Safina - that shows her potential on clay.
Serena in here preparations for Roland Garros was even worse than her sister and "achieved" three 1st round loses on European clay - Zakopalova (Marbella), Schnyder (Rome) and Schiavone (Madrid, where she retired)
All in all - another hard day for Williams family, so...

Vamos, Maria Jose!

LOST (46 63 64)

[lavovi]

OFK Beograd vs FK Banat AW 4.4 expekt

game to deside who of this two teams will be relagnated,
this spring OFK is highest underperformer, because big menagment overrules, during past sesions, which resulted, raising kriminal charges, against chairmen and all major sponsors, and the general agriment in the FA Serbia is that OFK should be relegnated

othervise banat is the small team, but thay are simpatised by the president of serbian FA, referies, which resulted with 4th overperformance, at this spring part of national ligue....

however i thinh that banats expirience will take on OFK young team, and save themselfs from the relagnation

reggards

VOID NOT COUNTED (no stats)

[RonaldGomez]

#9 (7W-0V-1L, +783)
Tennis, ATP French Open
Pick : Paul-Henri Mathieu +2.5 sets over Federer
Odds : @2.50 (Unibet)

3th round of the tournament. Federer in his last game against Acasuso was on alternative stream. He should have lost the third set, was leaded 1-5 but managed to find the solution and debreaked twice. But he was far from convincing, and imo he will lost at least one set this afternoon against a claycourter who can hold rallies very well. The frenchmen plays at his best level when he's not favourite. In a good day, he can fight with the best players on clay, remember in 2006 where he took one set at Nadal, and was very close during the match. He's playing well atm, showed a very good complete tennis in Munich three weeks ago, here in his two first round he didn't have any issues. The crowd will be behind him and he will play with no pressure, contrary to Roger. I think that Federer will qualify, but I give more than 50% of chance that he lost at least one set, so value here @2.50. GL !

WON (64 16 46 46)

[bravo123]

Pick #9 3 - 6 (+28)


Marseille - Rennes

Rennes is looking at the last spot on the UEFA spot but unless PSG or Toulose lose and Rennes were to win. Seems highly unlikely to me. Marseille is will be runners up in Ligue 1 if they fail to win or Bordeaux manages a draw. Last game played by these 2 teams early season ended a whopping 4-4 draw. Marseille still has a whole class in them and to win this should not be difficult, just in case Bordeaux losses their game, Marseille need to win by at least 2 goals to beat Bordeaux on goal difference. Marseille will probably put in their best squad for a long shot at the title and for the fans to cheer about.

Selection:Marseille -2.5
Odds: 4.85
Bookmaker: Bet365

WON (4-0)

[foxccs]

Pick #9 (5W-3L) (+117)

Germany Regionalliga South, 14.00cet
Munchen 1860 II - Freiburg II
Pick: Over 3 (void if exact 3)
Odds: 1.92
Bookmaker: bet365

Munchen's II last home game this season. They are playing on Grünwalder ("Sechzger Stadion"), the oldest stadium in Munich area. For third year in a row, Munchen 1860 fans are organizing X-thousend action with the goal to save the stadium (XXX-thousand this year). Many fans were in the prevous years (7000+, 12600+) and they claim maybe today they will break reginalliga record and atract more then 15.000.The stadium is limited to less then 12000 but authorities has decided to allow only today to be some more. Many chearing and drunk fans in the previous years in this last seasons game.
Coach Dieter Märkle was very unpleased with the recent away loss at Frankfurt(1-2) and urging today a better display and mustwin situation. Back in the team after suspension for today are defender Dominik Stahl, and midfielders Mathias Wittek and David Schittenhelm .

Freiburg II is one of the hotest teams this spring and they have turned the season in a good direction avoiding relegation in style. 7w2d1l is there recent form with many goals scored in those games.
I dont have team news from Freiburg II but the players are looking forward to this game with crowd they rarely have.


Its true that previous x-thousend games ended in Unders, but I dont expect this to hapen today. Munchen II will take this game seriously and Freiburg is overish team so I expect both to score game, with some team to score more

VOID COUNTED (2-1)

[Joton]

Pick 10# 3-0-6 +138

Eircom Premier League: Shamrock Rovers v Drogheda ***8211; Draw @ 3.50 @ bet365

With 22 points and that game in hand, Shamrock Rovers standing in fourth place at three points from Derry City (25 pts) will look forward to collect the three points and keep in touch with the top teams of the table. But they have shown some drop in form in last two games (LWWWLD) with a 2-1 away defeat at league one team Waterford in EA Sports Cup and an away goalless draw at third placed Derry last week. They will also miss suspended Stephen Bradley and skipper Shane Robinson is doubtful. They were at almost full strength before Bradley***8217;s suspension.

As opposed to them visitors Drogheda United, despite their rock bottom seat have played in progress and registered a first league win. That was away at Bray three games ago which they followed by a 1-1 draw at home to Dundalk and a short 1-0 defeat to high flying current leaders Bohemians last week. Robbie Farrell is still injured and will miss the next five or six weeks. Jamie Duffy was injured in the pre-match warm-up against Bohemians last Friday and remains doubtful to face his former club.

The teams already met in the reverse game on 3rd April last and they finished 2-2 at United Park.
There have been relatively much less home wins in encounters between these teams. At home Drogheda show 4-4-10 while at Home Shamrock Rovers show 5-4-4.
Drogheda show WWD at last three visits at Shamrock, the last being in May 2008. While at home they show LDD in last three encounters. Overall they drew all of last three encounters in May 2008 (0-0), in August 2008 (1-1) and in April 2009 (2-2).
Another draw is not excluded in today***8217;s game, more so Drogheda are playing in progress while Shamrock is missing a key player. I take the draw at 3.50 @ BET365

WON (1-1)

[stapce]

pick#9
stats: 8 4 0 4 +230

French 1st league
St. Etienne - Valenciennes

Pick: Draw(St. Etienne -1EH) , 3.65 , Bwin

St Etienne captain Loic Perrin has called for the team to fight for victory "at any price'' as they play for their Ligue 1 lives tomorrow against Valenciennes. This is most imporant match for St.Etienne this season as they have to win if they wan to stay in first league. Their rivals for relegation Caen have a most difficult job to do because they should play against probably new champion Bordeaux and they must to win but also St.Etienne to loose or draw. So everything depends on St.Etienne tactic and motivation today and in my opinion they have a quality team who deserve to stay in first league. Both teams have a many players who can not play tonight . For St.Etienne Sylvain Monsoreau, Yoann Andreu, Paulo Machado, Sebastien Grax, Geoffrey Dernis and Jeremie Janot are all doubtful. For Valenciennes Rafael, Jean-Claude Darcheville, Amara Bangoura, Filip Sebo, Jonathan Lacourt and Djamel Belmadi are all injured while Johan Audel is suspended.
I expect carefull play from St.Etienne,they are the team that should play for all three points here and I think this match will be played with slow tempo and I believe that hosts will take the points they want to but after hard battle. So I will take St. etienne to win with one goal difference with stake 4/10...

LOST (4-0)

[Feri]

#10

5 0 4 +364

Slovenia ***8211; Cup final in Maribor

Interblock Ljubljana ***8211; Koper (Sat 30 May 20:00)


Pick: DRAW @3.30


Odds this much in interblock favour are not fair imo, unless Koper wasn't that good in last
championship rounds and the relagation battle wasn't 'clear'...hmmmmmmmm

Have to say it again... Koper 'deserved' 5!!! penalties in the last 2 rounds and they stayed in the league
with 1 point above relegation (and having better h2h they even 'managed' to stay above the
playout space...)

I'd really like to go against Koper big time here (though I'm not blaming them to have stayed
in the league, but the two refs and maybe some other 'factors') I also cannot go with up/down
Interblock who haven't showed any great character in this season (except for Maribor games ).

Today Koper is going to miss their 1st keeper Hasic (no big deal imo...he could use a diet anyway)
and Interblock will have to cope without their imo best striker Ilicic, which is more of a blow
knowing Rakovic and some other are out of form.

That's why I'm expecting an even battle on a wet pitch with Koper having much better h2h
and luck and some other things on their side (at least recently).
This game can easily go to et and penalties and having no favourite in this game I sincerely
don't care who will be up at the end.

4/10

LOST (2-1)

[Feri]

Expekt...

[L.C.M.]

.
Pick #10 (7W-2L) +791.

Spanish Primera Division
Valencia FC ***8211; Ath. Bilbao
Pick: Under 2.5
Odds: 2.80@Unibet

The Valencia have 62 pts and they are on 6th position of tabele. They need minimum one point for Europian competition of next seasone. With three points and if Atl. Madrid will be defeated by Almeira they will in CL option, but Atl. Madrid defeat is almost impossible. Valencia will play for win and they are better squad then Ath. Bilbao. Their win is certainut but they must be so prudent if they want one point a minimum. Valencia will be without Ruben Baraja, Manuel Fernandes, David Silva, Asier del Horno Juan Manuel Mata, Vicente Guaita, Tiago Carleto and Hugo Viana.

Ath. Bilbao have 44 pts and they are on 12th position of tabele. But, according to my opinion Ath. Bilbao was play much better in the second half of this seasone and their posibilities is not so low. Moreover, I think that Ath. Bilbao is some kind of Spanish Primera Division institution and regardless of no good resultats of them in last a couple seasones (and maybe more) they never easy morsel for anyone. Statistic is of their mutual matches are oposite then under (maybe 50/50), but Ath. Bilbao***8217;s last games are. Athletic Bilbao will play without Igor Gabilondo, Ander Murillo, Ustaritz Aldekoaotalora and Aitor Ocio (injured). Ready for play are while Inigo Velez, Joseba del Olmo, Joseba Garmendia and Iker Nunian Caparros (17-year-old who is first time at the highest level).

WON (2-0)
.