Pick of the day 09/05/09

[WKSkofu]

Big thanks to our sponsor, Terje Grefstad !!!

Good luck to all !!!

[cleaner]

2w 2L +222

St Patricks Athletic vs. Cork City
pick: Cork City
odds: 2,5@bwin
I will try here with visitors, Cork City showed better form recently, don't have injury problems and they have quality on their side to win this game. Pats in big problem, they are not playing well, players hates manager, big injury problems, i just can't see how they can get result from this game.
Pats will be without Gary Dempsey (broken leg), Mark leech (broken leg), Gints Freimans (knee) and Bobby Ryan (knee) who are all injured and without Jamie Harris and Dave Partridge whoa are suspended.
They only got 2 more centar defenders in their roster and Haverty will probably start with Gavin.
Cork won last away game vs Pats 1:0 and they also beat this season Bohemians away, so they know how to play big game away from home.
probably lineup St.Patricks
rogers
Lynch Gavin Haverty Ryan
Maher Byrne Cawley O connor
Quigo Haran


WON

[WKSkofu]

Pick 1

Slask Lech(Amika)
Pick 1 3.76 Pinaccle

Lech(Amika) is certainlly favourite of this clash but odds are fixed incorectly and Slask win has big value.
Why:
Slask played at home with Amika(*)5 times:221(343 overall). The only loss were when if Slask had won , would have been the leader of the Ekstraklasa but lost mainly because of pression (they were quite week mentally).
But today they are much stronger mentally and phisically(mainly because of head coach, charismatic person and fighter).
Slask is still capable of fighting very hard for 90+ while Lech in last game (120 minutes just 3 days ago) had some problem with it.
Morever Lech is a bit decimated especially in defence:3 of 4 defenders from first 11 won't play(Wojtkowiak, Djurdjevic, Bosacki and cap of Henriquez is not certain)
Also Lech has very short bench only 12-13 players to play (even if Lech is loosing during Smuda is not making the changes because he don't have good player on the bench!)
Lech didn't lost last 22 games in Poland in rivarly (w/o PE that they didn't treat seriously)but in last 10 games they drew 8 times!And plenty of them including last 4 games(4 times 1:1 !).Also opponents weren't not seldom so strong:LKS at home(1:1 saved in 90 minutes),Ruch at home 1:1,Groclin(Polonia Warszawa)at home 1:1 etc.

Slask is save in 6th position but the players are fighting for their futere(in under 2 years Slask will play in stadium with 42k capicity and the owner of the Slask is the richest guy in Poland Solorz Zak)

Also Slask play especially well vs strong teams and many points lost with last 5-6 teams in the table: 2:1 with Wisla(4:0 in away match in PE)
Yes they lost with Groclin(moved to Warsaw and changed name to Polonia) twice but Slask has some nemesis when playing in Warsaw and loss at Wroclaw were unlucky and undeserved (Ludzinski missed penalty)and in first match in spite of fact that Slask were decimated in Poznan (5-6 imp. players didn't play)they drew 1:1.










(*)After season 05/06 Amica Wronki changed name to KKS Lech and moved to Poznan. The team has inerited history of Lech (to say it frankly it has been sticked to Amika)but kept UEFA coeficient of Amika and played in Intertoto cup that was achieved by Amika.


LOST

[delarge]

#3
0/2, -200

Sampdoria vs Reggina

Pick: over 3.5 @4.0
Bookie: bwin

Dont want to get into 1x2 betting in this match. Odds are surprisingly(or not) going in Reggina's favour. After all, they are the ones who are in desperate need of points with only 3 points behind safety but this is the time of the season when teams who need to win, are winning so they'll need to collect some points after this match too. Surprisingly or not, Reggina won 2/3 drawing against Juventus between wins over Bologna and Atalanta. Orlandi will have to make do without Alessio Sestu, Francesco Cozza and Davide Di Gennaro, who will all miss the match through injury
Doriani are having match of the season ahead, and there also lies one of the reasons why are they dogs in this match according to bookies. Also, they have really nothing to play for, they already crossed that line of 40 points which means safety and now can prepare for cup finals vs Lazio. Still, fans are a bit pissed off after derby defeat at Genoa 3-1. Doria wasn't that bad though, they missed a lot and if they had a bit more luck they could get away with draw. "Mazzarri will be without the services of Claudio Bellucci, Paolo Sammarco and Stefano Lucchini, who all need work on the treatment table, while Hugo Campagnaro is suspended for the red card picked up in the fiery derby against Genoa last weekend. " -goal.com
Like i said in the start, i really dont want to get involved in 1x2 predictions but over looks promising cause we have one team, Doria, who can play without pressure and will surely be a bit distracted by that match in midweek, and other, Reggina, who cant count on draws anymore even on such demanding away games. They are in difficult situation, their rivals will surely pick something up, but Reggina has, except for Sampdoria, 3 more teams to play against and all three are without serious motive.
Neither team will be too satisfied with one point, and since their recent history also indicates that they are more prone to overs, i have no reason not to back over at these odds.


WON

[dalibor]

Pick # 6 5w-0-0 722 points

FC Union Berlin(-1) -SSV Jahn Regensburg(+1)

Pick:1 ( handicap win)
Odds: 2.46
Bookmaker:Betsafe

Everything is ready for promotion and 2nd Bundesliga entrance. The great number of supporters is expected to come to stadium and to verify great season. Four rounds before end and with this win Berliners are mathematically new team in Bundesliga "zweite".
Opponent is not in safe zone and struggling to ensure position in this league for next year.
With new coach Mark Weinzierl, Regensburg is playing match better,especially in defence,where they are more organize and more stable. But in last round draw against Ofenbach,one of the key player in defence 30-year-old Stefan Binder is injured to the season's end.In addition,regular goalkeeper Rouven injured himself, so Bastian Becker should return on Saturday after a few weeks since over the long-term injury to the back door.
Union Berlin has no important missing and is overall far better team not only because injured players in Regensburg's crew.
First time these two teams met, Union Berlin won 2:0 away,and now, after two last winless rounds, hosts should book the card for 2nd league

Odds edited, you wrote hcp x odds by mistake i suppose, odds on your pick are 2.46/ADL


WON

[bgfallen]

Pick #3 1 1 0 +98

Valencia - Real Madrid
Pick: Over 3 goals @ 2.10 from Bet365

Both teams were disappointed with their last round results (especially Real) so I guess they will try somehow to bounce back in this game. As for Real chances for the title, they almost vanished, but Valencia still has a good chance in getting the 3rd spot.
Both defenses seem to be a bit shaky for me right now (Valencia conceded 3 goals last round and also they conceded at least one goal lately; Real showed that they are missing Pepe in the middle with Heinze, Cannavaro and Metzelder not doing good lately).
In addition to that both teams will have some important missings in the midline (especially in the defensive line of the midfield) - Edu, Albelda and Fernandes for Valencia and Diarra, Guti and Sneijder for Real.
Still both teams are with great offensive powers which are producing a lot of goals lately. So with these key problems in the defensive lines of both teams I guess we will see some mistakes and this will help for more goals here. And I hope we will see another spanish fiesta with attractive play and lots of goals.


VOID (counts for POD)

[L.C.M.]

Pick #7 (5W-1L) +571.

English Premier League
West Bromwich vs Wigan /AH:0, draw no bet/
Pick: West Bromwich, 1.80 @ betinternet


The Fact: WBA's has little chance of beating the drop and their fate will be confirmed if they lose at home to Wigan on Saturday and Hull take a point from their game at home to Stoke.

WBA were pushed closer to relegation from the Premier League after lose at White Hart Lane last Saturday.
But seasone do not ended yet. One thing more: certainity of their relegation from the Premier League do not mean that they must lose by Wigan. Before the start of this seasone prediction about relegationist was same for Wigan as for WBA. As Wigan is escape relegation certainly, no more worry for them and no high motivation. I think that WBA will be relegated, but practically not after this weekend yet.

Teams injury news:
West Brom defender Paul Robinson and midfielder James Morrison are fitness doubts for tomorrow's game. Robinson suffered an ankle injury during the single-goal defeat at Tottenham, while Morrison is still struggling to overcome the heel problem which has troubled him in recent weeks.
Rookie midfielder Graham Dorrans, who has signed a new contract, is back in training after sustaining a foot injury at White Hart Lane and Albion will make a late decision on the former Livingston player.
Wigan manager Steve Bruce is hopeful defenders Mario Melchiot and Paul Scharner will be fit. Club captain Melchiot was forced off at half-time during last Saturday's goalless draw with Bolton with a groin injury, while Scharner followed him eight minutes into the second half with a knee problem.
Emmerson Boyce and Erik Edman, their

Remaining fixtures for bottom five:

West Brom Middlesbrough Newcastle Hull Sunderland
Wigan (h) Newcastle (a) Midd'brough (h) Stoke (h) Bolton (a)
Liverpool (h) Aston Villa (h) Fulham (h) Bolton (a) Portsmouth (a)
Blackburn (a) West Ham (a) Aston Villa (a) Man Utd (h) Chelsea (h)
.


WON

[RonaldGomez]

#2 (1w-0v-0L, +113)
Rugby Union, French Top 14 Championship
Pick : Clermont -30.5 over Mont de Marsan
Odds : 1.85 (Bwin)

Handicap is quite huge but I'm very confident about this bet. Mont de Marsan is the weakest team of the championship and is already relegated in proD2. Clermont is very powerful at home and have to take the offensive bonus to qualify in good position for semi finals. Many players are able to score tries : Nalaga, Rougerie, Malzieu... Mont de Marsan will play without motivation and has some injuries, it will be a massacre. Last year in a similar game Clermont won 95-7 against Dax, tomorrow I'm expecting HW for at least 50 points. GL !


WON

[Lazy A$$]

#1

Safina-Kuznetsova 1 @2.40 from 5dimes

Russian Safina is currently first-placed tennis player of the world even though she hasn***8217;t won a single tournament this year. Nevertheless, she had three finals at some very strong tournies such as the one in Sydney or in Stuttgart, as well as the one at Australian Open. Last week she was defeat to her today***8217;s rival Kuznetsova in the Stuttgart finals, and will undoubtedly try to win her first title exactly in the Italian capital. She played the finals before the finals in the semis against Venus Williams, making a big comeback after lost first set in the tie break. Many thought Safina will go down easily in the 2nd set but the Russian kept a very high game tempo, and gave a very difficult time to Venus literally walking her all over the court with her backhands. Both players put up a very big fight, but Safina was more aggressive and determined, and was mentally tougher when it mattered the most.

Kuznetsova last week won the title in Stuttgart, and showed she is well-adapted to every surface being a classical all-round player. Her capability of sliding on almost any kind of surface is almost unique, and her powerful forehand can be a threat to anybody, which Azarenka felt the most in the semis, when Svetlana allowed her only 6 games. Before that she beat Hantuchova, Pennetta, and Jankovic with only one lost set in the match against the hosting Italian, which speaks enough of her great form.
They know each other well

This will be as many as the 13th clash between these two players, and Safina is somewhat more successful (7:5). It***8217;s interesting Dinara won last four out of 5 past meetings, while Kuznetsova beat her last week in Stuttgart. These players have met twice in Roma so far, with one win each. Now, I don***8217;t know why such high odds on Dinara were set, as she is undoubtedly the more quality player here and that can be proven by many factors, primarily by her number one ranking. It***8217;s just unrealistic Kuznetsova is such a fav where the situation is at least 50-50% if not even slightly in favor of Dinara, who can cause big problems to Kuznetsova with her great fighting spirit and amazing repertoire of shots. This will also be a great opportunity for live-betting and if you put your money on Safina now, it***8217;s almost certain you will get an opportunity to take Kuznetsova at some solid odds at one points, even though it***8217;s very probable that won***8217;t even be necessary and the bookies will soon realize they maybe made their biggest mistake so far in Rome, exactly in the final match. Good luck.


WON

[TAW]

Pick #3 (1-0-1) -10

Empoli FC - Ascoli Calcio 1898
Italian Serie B
Pick: Over 2.5 goals
Odds: 2.10 BWIN

With four games to go Empoli is currently occupying the final place that leads to the post season playoffs, but Grosseto, Triestina and Albinoleffe are really close as they are all separated by a margin of 2 points. It is true that Ascoli has one of the worst attacks in the Serie B away from home and there is only 1.92 goals per game on their matches but Empoli has to go forward in numbers and should they score in the first half this game is going to be a completely open one. Last three games played between these two teams at Stadio Carlo Castellani finished with over 2.5 goals with both teams scoring; Empoli came out victorious twice while Ascoli won 1-2 in May 2006. 2.29 goals per game is the average on Empoli's games this season but as the year comes to its end all the teams play attacking football as the battle for promotion/relegation comes to its highest point at this time of the year.

There are no very important missing players for either of the teams.

Good luck!


WON

[peret600]

Pick #3 W-1 V-1 L-0 +110

Borussia - Karsluher
pick: 1 H(-1)
@2.20 in expekt

Borussia is almost in europen cups. They are playing really good lately 6 wins in a row. But I think more important than a records is to qualify to europen cups which is very possible actually.

This is how the peak of table looks like:
1 Wolfsburg 60
2 Bayern Munich 57
3 Hertha Berlin 56
4 Stuttgart 55
5 Hamburger SV 55
6 Dortmund 52

Borussia with 52 is just 3p behind HSV and Stuttgart. However they will play very tough games tomorrow Werder - HSV, Stuttgart - Wolfsburg and one of these teams probably will lose some points. BVB will play with the worst team in whole ligue. They lost almost everything away 2-1-12 while BVB is still unbeatable team home. Karsluher have theoretical chances to survive, but c'mon - they will play BVB, Werder, Herta soon. They will fall into 2 Bundesliga for 99% - so they cannot have so much confidence to play as BVB will have fighting for europen cups line.

As I always say, if the home team want to be sure of win, whey cannot score 1 goal and stop playing - they must score more and more, especially if they play agains poor mugs. So my pick goes to BVB clear win with handicap - good odds for game very in form team against worst team in ligue.

Probably line-ups:
Borussia Dortmund: Weidenfeller - Owomoyela, Subotic, Santana, Dede - Kehl - Kuba, Sahin - Hajnal - Valdez, Frei.
Karlsruher SC: Miller - Görlitz, Drpic, Franz, Eichner - Federico, Engelhardt, Aduobe, Iashvili - Freis, Kennedy.


WON

[FC-PlayMaker]

Pick 1

WestHam - Liverpool
pick: Away win by one goal
Bookie: Interwetten @ 3.7

West Ham***8217;s form is on the downtrend and they will miss several first team regulars in this match.The home side are still missing long-term absentees Dean Ashton (ankle), Valon Behrami (knee) and Danny Gabbidon.
Scott Parker is also sidelined with a groin injury, while James Collins (calf) and Kieron Dyer (hamstring) are also on the casualty list. This is something that high-flying Liverpool will know how to punish and away win is the best choice but I will bet that Liverpool will win with one goal spread because Westham is currently on 7. place and they have chance to play in Eurepe next year also Liverpool must stay in run for the title and hope that United will make some slip ups.

Possible starting XIs
West Ham: Green, Neill, Tomkins, Upson, Ilunga, Boa Morte, Noble, Stanislas, Kovac, Tristan, Di Michele.

Liverpool: Reina, Arbeloa, Skrtel, Carragher, Aurelio, Kuyt, Mascherano, Lucas, Riera, Gerrard, Torres.


LOST

[todestipper]

#5 (1/3) -110
Under17 Championship
Spain - France
Pick: HC 0:1 Spain Odds: 3,6 (3,5 for POD) Bookie: Bet365

I watched the matches on first match day and Spain impressed me most, although they were held by Italy. Italy played really catenacchio, in the second half 11 players were defending in the own half. Despite this, Spain created many chances and it was a wonder that they didnt score, they had so many 100% chances that it were normally enough for 3 matches. France were held by under dog Switzerland with 1:1 and France equalized just minutes before the final whistle. Even if France defends like Italy did (what I dont expect by the way) Spain will get again lots of chances and if they start to score, I think it can easily become a handicap win.


LOST

[Techmozz]

Pick 3 0w 2l -200
Tennis Final WTA Estoriol
Wickmayer - Makarova
Pick: Wickmayer to win at 2.80 Bwin

In a final between 2 not top players the spread is a bit to big. Yanina can play some really good tennis when she is focused, and when she has the confidence. She beated Kvitova, Govortsova & Cirstea this week. I rate these players at the same level as Makarova. I don't know the Russian girl that good, but I know better the skills of Yanina to know that she is looking forward to get her first WTA title, after losing last year in final of a grass tournement against Bondarenko.

It will be the first meeting of these 2 tennis girls. I see the value on Wickmayer today.


WON

[k1k0]

#3, -200

Znicz Pruszków - Dolcan Z***261;bki x2 @ 2.5 bwin
Polish I liga
kickoff 7PM CET

Come on, Znicz @ 1.40 in a derby match? Znicz @ 1.40 against Dolcan? Sorry, it must mean bookies got tricked by hosts' high table rank. l think l explained but l can repeat it. Znicz took the table lead by gaining 6 points 'at the green table' which mean they have been given walkover points and another factor was a span of easy matches at the beginning of the season. Ok, they were efficient but several latest matches proved the claims they are 3rd force of the league are exaggerated. Furthermore, they have pretty low budget so they are some probable rumours they can't afford Ekstraklasa promotion. lt doesn't mean they will keep the losing streak until they reach the spot outside the promotion zone but why not to help the neighbourhood team?
Dolcan won't come from a far for this match so the home advantage shouldn't be so huge. They presented decent football after the winter break but after crucial defeat last week to GKS Katowice they have only 4 points cushion over the relegation playoffs again. However some changes are prepared so that Dolcan would be able to bounce back today.


WON

[Kellthorn]

#1

Odra Opole - Zaglebie Lubin 09.05.2009 19.00

Pick: Zaglebie Lubin -1.5 @2.7
Bookie:bet-at-home

2nd polish league. Zaglebie is currently 2nd and Odra Opole is staying at 17th in the table. Both teams plays for totaly different targets as Odra is already dropped and Zaglebie must win every match in case of promotion. After a fatal beginning players from Zaglebie have found a good form at last. Replacing couches and employ Oresta Lenczyk was the major impact on healing team spirit. An experienced trainer got their's mind around and lead to last 4 wins in a row. Odra is struggling with personal problems as few regular players will miss this match due to the financing issues and injuries. Whole club has a big problem with cash and with absences like first goalkeeper - Mateusz S***322;awik, left defender - Artur Monasterski, captain Adama Or***322;owicza is hardly to see them winning today. Additionally due to the small distance between cities I expect large group of fans coming from Lubin. Previous two encounters ended 3-0 and 2-0 for Zaglebie.


WON

[Barcis]

#2 Pick -> +79

Berdych Tomas - Chardy Jeremy
Pick: A
Odds: 2.25
Book: Bet365

I'm expecting odds like this and I'm very happy becouse that odds has a big value of course. Berdych show good form that is true but I saw two matches Chardy and his play was impressive, he know when he can play aggresive and big shots and when is fight for important points he can play more reliable and stabile. Chardy have fantastic serve maybe such good like Berdych but on the rallys he is I think one class above Berdych becouse Tomas doing too much unforced errors, of course he can put some nice winners but that is spoiting with some bad shots. For me Cilic is at the moment players who is like Berdych but Cilic is better now so Chardy know how to play and how to win to players like they and today he show that he have big talent and his career going up and up.


LOST

[_Limvolikce_]

#5 (1W - 3L ) = -80


Norway tippeligaen at 16.00:


ODD GRENLAND - BRANN BERGEN PICK: BRANN BERGEN TO WIN


Odds: 3.00 at Unibet


In this round, no one of big favorites didint won. Rosenborg played 1-1 away with Lyn, Tromso lost with big 0-3 in Frederikstad and Molde lost 0-3 at home agaisnt Valerenga. I didint expected that all favorites will win, but also didnt expected that no one of them will win in this round. Another small favorites won confortabely, Stromsgodset and Start.

Now last favorite Brann will play in Skien against Odd Grenland wich was promowed to Tippeligaen in this season again. So i really cant understand why Odd is favorite here, or why bookies put Odd Grenland as favorite here??

OK, Odd didnt lost in Skien where have 2-1-0 and gol diference 8-4 (2-0 against Sandefjord, 4-2 over Aalesund and 2-2 with Valerenga). But Odd have 0-3-1 away (0-3 against Viking, 3-3 against Stabek, 1-1 against Rosenborg and 1-1 against Tromso)...Very strange results for me, expecially against Rosenborg and Tromso away (i was happy that watched that game against Tromso and can say that Odd had only one chance in all game and scored from ofside for 1-1). So Odd Grenland is not so superb team as their results show. Also they played and won at home against Aalesund and Sandefjord, two not so strong team at this moment.
I remember that Odd Grenland lost big part of training game before the season(they had 1-2-3 in 6 games), showing that will have problems in this season, but they tok 10 points from 7 games, more then enough for safe palce at the table at this moment. I doubt that Odd Grenland have ambitions for top of league. Financial situation is not so great in team. Players wages are reduces and some of them have to work extra now to have solid wage.
Dag Eiliv Fagersmo, coach of Odd is suspended and cant be on the cench agaisnt Brann.

Brann was champion of Norway two seaons ago but in last season finished just on 8th place. Before the new season, they played also 6 friendly games and won just one of them and lost another 5. It could be clear signal that something is not OK in Brann again. So they opened new season with defeat against Sadnjefjord away (1-3) and Brann didint won any of first 5 games in this season. But finally two weeks ago they won 2-0 away against Bodo and then in last round 3-1 against Lillestrom at home. Is that signal this time that Brann will start to win again? We will see...They have 9 points from 7 games and 1-1-1 at home and 1-2-1 away. Very balanced performance. But we dont need to forget that Brann had a very dificult 4 games in a row and lost just one of them. They played 1-1 against Stabek, 1-1 against Rosenborg, 1-1 against Valerenga and lost 2-4 against Tromso. Brann have very solid team and they are without big ambtions in this season and that can be very dangerous for their opponents, coz they will play relaxed and without big presure for win.

So i predict here scenaraio that Odd will start the game as favorite and they cant be that against teams as Brann is. Odd didnt won any game against Brann since 2002 and they cant be favorite here. Odd played 4 draws in last 5 games and didnt lost and game in that 5 round. Actually, they lost only one game in all season (0-3 against Viking)..So expections here for Odd can be too high. I will try here with directly away win for Brann coz i think that they can suprise here.


LOST

[sirac]

Pick # 3...(0-0-2...-200)

Romania-Liga 1
Pandurii-Poli Iasi

Pick:HW
Odds:1.75
Bookmaker:Unibet

Locals with a win here can be almost sure of playing in the same Ligue for next year.They away form sucks so intentionally they didnt forced themselves last round at Vaslui,when they played without many regulars,and even the coach did not make the long trip to Vaslui,so you can bet your house that they did that gest to be more fresh for this important clash.
Pandurii is a typical home team,with very aggressive style of play,with good technical and working midfield;opponents have always difficulties playing here,as the rough style of play of locals barelly allows them to have more than 2-3 chances to score.Consequently,locals didnt received at home for the last 5 and also last 4 home games were home wins.Their home form is good;last home game was a good win against neighbor Craiova,some sort of a local derby,with a lot of nerves and passion around,so we can expect the same good home performance from the locals.Raskovic had some physical difficulties in trainings but not a big loss if he doesnt make it.

Poli Iasi,since the arrival of coach Bergodi,has 2 different faces:the good one,when they play at home,like it was last round against Arges when a superb game made by A.Cristea(2 goals and 2 assists)sealed a well deserved victory for locals,and a bad one,when they play away and usually they make very poor games,like it was at Brasov(0-2)when they were completely dominated and should have received more,or at Timisoara(0-3).Coach Begodi spoke about this problems,about not being consistent after they get good home wins,and about their attitude towards away games,but we all know that one thing is to talk and another to have the resources to do what you talk.
For this game regulars Bersnjak and Viveiros are suspended and A.Ilie injured(not so important missings).Their Achilles's heel,defensive issues,are far from being solved,as they keep rotating the defenders,so local's chances of scoring here should be high.

Locals,with good home form,with a more relaxed and fresh squad,should end their relegation worries against an poor traveler,with consistency problems.Price is not what i expected,really low for an relegation battle,but should come.


LOST

[Raymz]

Pick #2 /0-1 -100/

ATP Estoril

James Blake - Nikolay Davydenko

Pick: Blake 3.55 Bwin

I really have faith in Blake, who did great job this week - played some nice stuff and getting better and better with every next match. The same thing with Davydenko - didn't touch racket in from January to March, now slowly trying to find rhythm, but all in all He is far from his best. That's why I don't see easy match against Blake, who can play really well on clay and is motivated to achieve something on clay. Value is clearly on James side and I'm gladly taking these odds. Kolya is beatable at the moment. Also h2h has some meaning here as Blake leads 6-0, so It is clear that Davydenko doesn't prefer to play against Blake. We will see.



Void, match will be played on sunday/ADL

[dakashev]

Pick #5
1W/3L -90

Belgium Jupiler league
Kortrijk - AA Gent

Pick: Over 3.5
Odds: 2.83
Odds from

I was hesitating whether to pick this game, my first choice was Anderlecht's match cuz they are going to play for better goal difference, but these odds for 3.5 line seem to be quite tempting for such high-scoring league. Pretty good final run for Gent as they recorded 7 wins in the last 10 games and the battle for 3th place is still open in Jupiler. With two more games remaining Gent should take three points here as they will have very tough task next week when facing champions Liege at home. Probably the guests will start tonight with Ruiz Gonzalez and Mbaye Leye upfront - very effective attacking duo scored 7 goals in previous 5 games.
Last home game for the hosts - they are occupying 14th place, no threat of relegation, nothing to play for. Statistically Kortrijk have one of the worst defenses in Jupiler, conceding goals with ease and only one clean sheet in last 13 games.
I expect a goal show from this game - Kortrijk will play for the fans and I think they will reach the opposite net at least once. Gent possess very strong offensive power and motivation is on their side. I hope to see an entertaining match with a couple of goals here.


LOST

[Barca-United-Milan]

pick 5
2W 2L +141
Spain Primera Liga
Athletic Bilbao - Real Betis
Pick AWAY WIN
Odd 2.40
Bookie Interwetten

Bilbao will rest many first team regulars 'cause of Copa del Rey final on Wednesday against Barcelona at Mestalla. Caparros has dispensed Iraola, Ocio, Orbaiz, Yeste, Llorente, Martinez and Lertxundi. Murillo and Gabilondo are injured, it means first team regulars will be 4 of 11.

It is clear Caparros intention to concentrate on Wednesday clash, even if his declarations shows the opposite. Bilbao looks like quite safe with 7pts ahead relegation spot and just 4 matches to be played yet.

Betis has replaced coach Chaparro a month ago but since then results were not that good. Andalusians lost 3 game in a row which led them to a very dangerous zone, with just 3pts ahead relegation zone.

Aurelio, Garcia, Xisco and Gonzalez are all sidelined, Juanma and Juanito will face late fitness test before kick off, while striker Olivera should be regularly fit, after a cold which prevented him to regularly train this week.

'La Catedral' at San Mames is always a difficult place to travel, but now circumstances are particular..25 years later Bilbao will have the chance to win the national cup, 7 regulars will be rested, on the other side Betis is hungry for points to avoid relegation and totally focused on this match..after 3 defeats in a row it is time to go back to winning ways with this unique chance given luckily by Liga calendar.

I expect visitors to win..probably narrowly..but in football, as written yesterday, motivations and target are fundamental..for Bilbao these are directed to Wednesday, for Betis to the upcoming night clash.

AWAY WIN with medium high stakes.

GL to all.


LOST

[The Ring]

0/1 -100

PICK #2


Sampdoria - Reggina 1 @3.47 Pinnacle
Stake: 2/10

Well IMO odds are set like this because Reggina desperately needs points and Sampdoria no longer needs such. And because it is Italy Seria A we are taling about! In my eyes Sampdoria are much better team and in normal situation odds should be like 1.60 for home win and I will take advantage of the good odds. Also I think that saving Reggina from regalation will be too obvious - in the last 3 games they drew at home with Juventus, and won against Bologna and Atalanta away! LOL. IMO it is too much. Also I should say that I rate Sampdoria as candidate for European Competitions, but this season lack of stability in defense ruined their good place in the league. Saving Reggina as I said will be pretty obvious and lets not forget that there are 4 teams which are 100% in the battle for only one place and I doubt that Reggina will be the winner for this place because they are last of this 4 teams! Sampdoria have 3 home draws in row with some good teams and I doubt that they will draw again, and if they lose this one - it will be too smelly IMO


WON

[golden7mkd]

pick#2 , -100

Spanish Segunda Division
Huesca - Zaragoza

pick: Zaragoza
odds: 2.05
Bookie: Bet365

This is very important match for Zaragoza and a chance they can not miss in the battle for promotion. They are in great for recently as they didn't loose in last 10 matches with score 6 4 0 21:10 . I told in my previous post that Zaragoza have a team for Primera division and with players like Roberto Fabián Ayala , Chus Herrero , Ewerthon , Zapater , Ponzio , Pavón they could be very competitive team in Primera because all of this player previously have played in Primera and most of them in European cups. So I think that experience players like this could win in important matches even Huesca is not naive team and they will fight against slight favorites . Huesca is on safety 12th position with no further ambitions so they will play in relax atmosphere on this match and this could be psyhological advantage for them . But I will bet on Zaragoza's experience and good form and I will take AW with high stakes ...

GL


WON

[Alex Lee]

pick 1

Germany Bundesliga
Hertha Vs Bochum
pick: Hertha -1 (EH) (odd:2.7 from bet365)

An one side game today, Hertha still four points behind league leader Wolfsburg, but like their team captain Arne Friedrich said, they still have title dream, have an easier run in than the other teams in the remain four rounds, importance scorer Voronin back from suspended, and should not have any problem to beat this incomplete Bochum in front of their full house huge crowd.

Bochum has serious injuries problem today, Christian Fuchs, Oliver Schroder, Klimowicz, Sestak and Ono will absence and also three to four other regulars are doubful, they just lost a bad game against Hannover at home, coach Marcel Koller and defender Maltritz attack by their own fans and shout out want them to resige, the morale of the whole team is very low at that moment, they will collapse again in capital Berlin in my eyes.

Sorry for only have limited time to write this short preview.

GL!


WON

[Gambet]

#5 1/3 -180
Athletic Bilbao- Real Betis
Pick: Athletic Bilbao
Odds:3.78 Pinnacle


Caparros are set to put out almost a second-team in this match because as they prepare for the Copa del Rey final next week.But this is also a very good players.Of too excellent goalkeeper Iraizoz we will see Armando.After draw with Gijon 1-1 week ago this time Caparros don`t use Iraola,Ocio,Amorebieta and Koikili in the defence for the first minute this time substitutes will play them so we will see Boveda,Etxeita,Ustaritz and Balenziaga.This is also a good option with very experienced Ustaritz and young Balenziaga.In midfield the entire line will also be exchanged,Gurpegi and Munoz will play for the first minute and also Etxberria,Garmendia and D.Lopez.Inigo Velez will be only man in up front in Bilbao.Caparros he will play the completely different team than the week ago.Entire all first-eleven will be exchanged for this meeting.
Real Betis after the very poor match with Atletico Madrid and the defeat as many as 0-2 now will fight on the very heavy area in Bilbao.Maria Nogues will use 4-2-3-1 formation this time.So Ricardo will be goalkeepers once again,week ago couldn***8217;t have done anything to prevent Forlan***8217;s two goals.Nelson on the right he`s defended solidly,Melli which poor marking allowed Forlan to score the vital first goal and failed to pick him out again for the second this time once again he can have trouble with Bilbao attacks.Juanito another central defender will be strong here and Fernando Vega on the left is also a good option.Before this line of defence he will play Canas but an almost anonymous display in midfield week ago,he didn***8217;t offer also much in attack so this is only good position for him.Juanma is injured and will be missing for this game so Arzu he will replace of it.Jose Maria Nogues he will use these players as the help for defenders.Emana,Mark Gonzalez and Edu they will be playing balls for the match the most moved in it Oliveira.One player in the offensive these are deciding too little on Athletic and it on their area.Rivera,Odonkor and maybe Pavone they will start the match on the bench.
Ustaritz,Etxberria,Armano,Gurpegi,Munoz these are very experienced players also with this young players as 20 year-old Bovega,Etxeita 21 year-old,Garmendia 23 years old this is a blend of the youth with experience must not at all turn out to be defeated in this match.Real Betis will play here under pressure, Bilbao will play for the honour and for fans.Match this will be opened with large amounts of goalmouth situations but I think that hosts will be here better.


WON

[Joton]

4 # 1-0-3 / -62 pts

EPL Hull v Stoke - Away @ 4.00 @ bet365

Hull city are standing only one place above relegation zone with three points more than Newcastle and Middlesbro and are fighting for survival in the EPL. Every point is essential for them and they will look forward to reverse their drastic bad form and get some points at the visit of Stoke standing 5 four places abovewith five points more. The latter with 39 points will be safe should they win today and they will go for that win.
Hull have occupied for the last weeks the lowest rank in the six-match form table and were beaten away by Villa in midweek, despite Villa***8217;s poor form.
Hull are in very bad shape and I do not see them able to resist the assaults of Stoke today.
Hull are showing DLLDLLLL in last eight while Stoke show DDWLWWDWLL last 10 losing last two to in form Fulham and West ham by 1-0 only.
I see Stoke winning and take the away at 4.0 @ bet365


WON

[foxccs]

Pick #3 (2W-0L) (+155)

Scotland League Two, 16.00cet
Stirling Albion - Queen's Park
Pick: Over 2.5
Odds: 1.75
Bookmaker: bet365

A short one.

Stirling has failed this season to make some impact in the league due to their inconsistency.
The club is for sail for several years allready, but lack of interest had allways leaving them with atmosphere of uncertainity over future of the club. But, now, Supporters Trust has started some action to save the club by selling the club actions to the fans and anyone interested all over the world can buy a piece of the club. http://www.buystirlingalbion.org.uk/ has everything clear how it would be managed.
For this game, one of the their best strikers Martin Grehan is back from suspension to partner McKenna upfront. They have no injury worries, but will probably put some youngster in the line as this is a game without much importance.

Queen's Park has fail to escape relegation playoffs and is expecting Wednesday match with Stenhousemir. Manager Gardner Speirs will like to approach playoffs in a good mood, but will have to spare most of the clubs regulars for playoffs.
Their regular defender Damiano Agostini have left the club without any explanation. For this game they will miss also midfielders Tony Quinn and Paul McGinn and their defender captain Richard Sinclair. One of the regular defenders Stevie Reilly is a doubt and I am sure He will not be risked further.


Many uncertainity around lineups for this game, but I am sure that anyone involved will likely to made a good and entertaining game. Stirling will surely wanna attract possible "investors" with a good last game this season.
Previous meeting between this two teams this season didnt lack goals and I hope today will be the same.


VOID (it doesnt count though)

[greenpower]

#3 (2-0-0) + 217
Football, Bulgarian A Grupa
Pick : Cska (-1) ***8211; Levski 1 (Cska to win by more than one goal)
Odds : 4,20 (Betsafe) / 3,5 for the POD

16:45 CET, National Stadium Vassil Levski
Referee: Stefan Spasov

Cska from:
Petrov, Becono
Todorov, Vidanov, Yordan Minev, Ivan Ivanov, Kotev, Branekov, Machado,
Yanchev, Udodji, Markinhos, Silva,
Miguel, Saidhodja, Tonev, Zehirov, Lazarov

Levski from:
Mitrev, Dimitrov,
Milanov, Genev, Rabeh, , Vesselin Minev, Bistron, Vagner, Miliev
Tiberkanine, Sarmov, Miroslav Ivanov, Joaozinho, Tasevski, Baltanov, Gadjev, Da Costa
Georgi Hristov, Georgi Ivanov, Tzachev

Main reasons for the bet:

Cska are 4 points clear of their opponent on top of the Bulgarian league with only 5 games remaining. Meaning, this is a 6-pointer for the title.

Not that Levski are not motivated to keep close to the first rank in the table, but they are in worse position, and I would say shape, than the reds.

Georgi Ivanov (***8220;Gonzo***8221;) who has been the main driving force of Levski wins over the reds lately, got seriously injured (torn muscles in his leg) just five days ago. He urgently travelled to Germany and reportedly has recovered enough to play today. However, I don***8217;t expect him to stand long; even if he does, he would be quite restricted physically. A big problem for Levski, as the rest of the team tend to be excessively relying on Gonzo to save their game.

Problem No 2 ***8211; the first keeper Georgi Petkov is out injured. He saved Levski in numerous occasions in the past. I am not saying Mitrev is a bad keeper, just the opposite; however he lacks the experience and great talent of Petkov. Cska strikers Zdravko Lazarov (returning from injury), Saidhodja (in great shape) and youngster Alexander Tonev will take every chance to score, and as many as possible.

Based on the above, my feeling is that Cska will outplay Levski , and score more than once (which happens not often lately; so even statistically should happen today).

Good luck!


LOST

[Guntzi]

Pick #3 0w/2L -200

Ukraine Vyscha Liga
Dnepr Dnipropetrovsk v Chornomorets Odessa
pick: over 3.5 @4.2, 3.5 for POD
bookie: Unibet

Although in this low scoring league this is rarely expected, even when giant plays against outsider, I'm going for this, really not big surprise. Both teams are sleeping lions, with great attacking power, what's the problem, I don't know. Signs of awakening are shown in some later games, and this is where I expect them to explode. Both teams will be motivated, and win is priority for both of them, so I expect attacking approach. Guests in fight against relegation with 'old wolf' Kosyrin in front, together with some very talented and creative midfield. On the other side in fight for Europe, Vorobey and Belik spent so many years together in Shakhtar, Ruslan Rotan, Nazarenko, Kalinichenko, all regulars of Ukraine national team, Mladen Bartulovic, but in the back only one classy player, Rusol, and young Borovyk between the posts. In my opinion they are underachieving all the year and shuold win this tight and close game, odds are not showing real state of the clubs. Should me much lower on the guests, but 3-1 is my call here.


WON