Bundesliga [ 16-17 april]

[rudinhopsg]

Welcome, i'm new here. I hope this new topic will help everyone to make good choices.

Well next week i see some good opportunities

First

Borussia Dortmund - Arminia Bielefeld 1.50 ; X 3.90 ; 5.60 (BetandWin)
Well after lest victory over Leverkusen i think Dortmund reagained some confidence. This is a big club with traditions, the supporters expect that the team will improove their league position and they got the chance to pick the 5 th place if other rivals mess up for example HSV and Hertha.
Other argument is the heavy defeat of Arminia in last match. They got a bad away stats Bielefeld PL14 W4 D2 L8 14:23 Pts14
Dortmund homestats aren't good but they're making a come back.

Hansa Rostock - VfB Stuttgart 3.45 ; X 3.50 ; 1.90 (BetandWin)

Rostock PL14 W2 D4 L8 12:28 pts10 as we can see is the worst team at home, since VFB Stuttgart is 7Th in-form team on away matches.
The goal ratio should be a good argument Hansa looses 2 and scores 1 (12:28 ), VFB is 1 to 1 ( 19:19). I think that Stuttgart will try to catch up Schalke and run away from Brema. But a draw could be possible (??) so maybe play double chance (??)



:?: And i have a question how you see a combo with the victory of FC Sevilla - Osasuna ( 1 Odd 1,50), they have won on away with Espanyol 1:3,they want to play CL but still are only one point ahead of Villareal and 2 points ahead of Betis, and the victory of Barca - Getafe (od 1,20), Barca will conifirm easily their 1st place.

Final combo odd 5.13 at BetandWin

[Stjerner77]

Hi,

my predictions for this weekend are:


Gladbach vs. Mainz ........1

I think Gladbach will win this match, both teams are not in the best conditions, but I think Gladbach is a little bit stronger at the moment, furthermore is Mainz not a team which is getting points away.

Wolfsburg vs. Nürnberg >2,5 goals

This is a suggestion based on the statistiks

Bremen vs. Hertha.......1

In my opinion, is Bremen to strong for Hertha, furthermore will they keep there chances to play in champions league next year.

I would appreciate some comments

[Ionutz]

Originally Posted by Stjerner77

Hi,

my predictions for this weekend are:


Gladbach vs. Mainz ........1

I think Gladbach will win this match, both teams are not in the best conditions, but I think Gladbach is a little bit stronger at the moment, furthermore is Mainz not a team which is getting points away.

Wolfsburg vs. Nürnberg >2,5 goals

This is a suggestion based on the statistiks

Bremen vs. Hertha.......1

In my opinion, is Bremen to strong for Hertha, furthermore will they keep there chances to play in champions league next year.

I would appreciate some comments

And you,a Bayern fan don't see your favoutites to win at Hanover?
Also,i think Sttutgard is a good bet,they are in a very good form.

[Stjerner77]

[quote="Ionutz"]

Originally Posted by Stjerner77

Hi,

And you,a Bayern fan don't see your favoutites to win at Hanover?
Also,i think Sttutgard is a good bet,they are in a very good form.

I never bet on my favorite team...furthermore might it be hard regarding the motivation after the Chelsea match. Normally Bayern should win this one ofcourse.

[mantis]

[quote="Stjerner77"]

Originally Posted by Ionutz

I never bet on my favorite team...furthermore might it be hard regarding the motivation after the Chelsea match. Normally Bayern should win this one ofcourse.

h2h: 0-2-0
Hannover 96 - Bayern Munich 3:3 4.10 3.33 1.75 Sat 09-08-2003
Hannover 96 - Bayern Munich 2:2 4.17 3.32 1.75 Sat 05-04-2003

[Ali]

Originally Posted by mantis

h2h: 0-2-0
Hannover 96 - Bayern Munich 3:3 4.10 3.33 1.75 Sat 09-08-2003
Hannover 96 - Bayern Munich 2:2 4.17 3.32 1.75 Sat 05-04-2003

2:2 - dumb mistake by Kahn after a 30m free kick by Vinicius, 2nd by Stajner was a classic though by the best Bundesliga player alive and Bayern will still have to fear his vigor. --> see picture below. Bayern equalized the lead.



3:3 - wonderful match in hot weather conditions at the beginning of last season. During that time Hannover was clearly a candidate for higher ambitions with a highly creative and motivated team under coach Rangnick, playing heavenly soccer. Then Simak left for whoring businesses in the Czech Republic and never showed up again as well as Hannover's playing style. Bayern came back miraculously again and equalized in the last minute.

2005: Odds are low again and Bayern favorites as each time these teams meet. Under Rangnick, Hannover played attacking football regardless of the opponent's name. Under Lienen and his boring tactics, Bayern ought to dominate the game or at least not give up the edge to the Reds.

Imo @ 1,7 not a recommended bet for me, but certainly worth thinking about Bayern here.

[Stjerner77]

Hi,

what do yo think about this one:


Wolfsburg vs. Nürnberg >2,5

Wolfsburg played 21 times >2,5 and Nürnberg played 22 times >2,5, this Season. So I think over 2,5 could be a pretty good bet.

Would do you think???

[aleasoft]

Advanced statistics and team comparison.
Time:CET

15:30 Dortmund - Bielefeld 1.55 3.30 5.20 http://www.sigurica.com/stats.php?al...im1=72&tim2=69

15:30 Freiburg - Leverkusen 4.20 3.20 1.70 http://www.sigurica.com/stats.php?al...im1=80&tim2=70

15:30 Hannover - Bayern 4.50 3.20 1.65 http://www.sigurica.com/stats.php?al...im1=77&tim2=71

15:30 Hansa - Stuttgart 3.50 3.10 1.85 http://www.sigurica.com/stats.php?al...im1=78&tim2=81

15:30 Monchengladbach - Mainz 1.65 3.20 4.50 http://www.sigurica.com/stats.php?al...im1=73&tim2=75

15:30 Schalke - Hamburger 1.70 3.20 4.20 http://www.sigurica.com/stats.php?al...im1=74&tim2=76

15:30 Werder - Hertha 1.95 3.10 3.30 http://www.sigurica.com/stats.php?al...im1=84&tim2=79

[Piccione]

Wolfsburg has two important offensive players injured - Andres D'Alessandro and Diego Klimowicz.
Nürnberg won't play offensive away...

So, over 2,5 would not be a bet for me

[mantis]

Originally Posted by Ali

2:2 - dumb mistake by Kahn after a 30m free kick by Vinicius, 2nd by Stajner was a classic though by the best Bundesliga player alive and Bayern will still have to fear his vigor. --> see picture below. Bayern equalized the lead.



...

:lol: :lol:

[Highroller]

On Saturday the matches start at 15.30 CET


From the Saturday menu:

Freiburg-Leverkusen over 2,5


Not too much explaination is needed, Freiburg is already in practice a second league team. Only worrying that Leverkusen in bad form and almost surely can not finish on the 4th place. Perhaps over 2,5 goals is much more safer bet for 1,65 at gamebookers than away win for 1,8!!



Rostock-Stuttgart 2



Despite the late efforts, Rostock has good chance to be relegated and hard to imagine that the explosive Stuttgart can not win this match with the best line-up. Stuttgart is very motivated after the win over two close rivals and because of the possibility of the 2nd place. I will go for Stuttgart to win with medium stake for 1,85 at gamebookers.



Werder Bremen-Hertha 2



Very important game for both teams, the 4th hosts the 5th, the difference in points exactly 3. Neither team in good form, but from Bremen will be missing two key players. Cery hard to predict this match, but the over seems good bet for 1,55 at gamebookers. As regular bet: I will play Hertha to win with little stake, because the odds is generous: 3,9 at gamebookers.



Schalke-Hamburg 1



Schalke tries to keep the tempo with Bayern in the race for the title, but has to keep an eye on Stuttgart too, so this is a must win match. Hamburg – after a long uptrend - started to decline in form. There are injury and suspension problems at both teams! I will play home win with MEDIUM stake, because both Schalke and Hamburg produced very unpleasent surprises in the last rounds.



Dortmund-Bielefeld over 2,5



Dortmund is flying high since survived the banktrupcy. The only problem with this bet that won its last 4 matches in row, and every streak ends once. OVER pays more – 1,65 – than home win 1,55 at gamebookers!


Check our new State-of-Art betting interface at:
http://www.102bet.com/oddsoffer.php

[vga]

I'm picking Werder-Hertha Over. both teams need points but i thnk that they can score a lot because they both play open football.this is my choice. probably Bayernwill beatbut it is not a sure banker.in a combo it's good.

[sly]

Freiburg - Leverkusen

Pick:2

Although i don't like the odds on Leverkusen,i will take them this time.Freiburg is thinking about the next year already,the chapter Bundesliga 1 2004/05 is closed now.Of course this doesn't mean they'll give Bayer the points without a decent fight.But their only motivation now is to please the fans and play good football.So i expect an open game from the SC.And exactly this is Leverkusen's chance here.
The guests are in a crisis,losing in Bielefeld and at home against BVB.Both games finished 0:1.Now Bayer has no choice than to win,because the next games are against Werder and in Gelsenkirchen (Schalke).Even a draw in Freiburg will probably end Leverkusen's hopes for a UEFA Cup place.The good news is that Roque Junior will finally return to the first team after recovering from injury.And Bernd Schneider will most likely start as a right defender.Ponte is out for the game.
Bayer's coach Augenthaler expects from the team not only nice football,but also a real fight and more spirit.If the players take his "advice",i have no doubts they'll win.If not,well,bye-bye Europe.Since this is almost their last chance,i believe Leverkusen will give everything to win.In fact,i think a nice win here will give them new hope and will boost player's morale,so Bayer is anything but chanceless in the next two games.
Freiburg's lack of serious motivation and Leverkusen's quality and big motivation are more than enough for me to try away win here.I can't imagine that Bayer will drop points in Freiburg after losing two games in a row.

Confidence: 6/10

Hannover - FC Bayern
Ballack and Lizarazu will miss Bayern's game in Hannover.FCB is surely favourite,but they have the game against Chelsea in the legs and one pretty defensive opponent.Besides a draw won't be the end of the world for them.Still,i expect Bayern to win,but odds are low imo.

[Misternando]

Right, back to the REAL world.

It seems everyone is on Stuttgart tomorrow. But whilst I think they will win, I don't see any value in backing them. The bookies, and the layers on Betfair, have settled at around 1.86 for the away win. And why would they be laying that if they didn't think Hansa had a chance? I would be more tempted by those odds if Hansa were missing a striker or two.

Can anyone here make a genuine case against backing Stuttgart? I want to cover all options before wading into them.

[Ali]

Originally Posted by Misternando

Can anyone here make a genuine case against backing Stuttgart? I want to cover all options before wading into them.

1. Odds have dropped, I wouldn't back them below 1,95 either. IW stil has a a stabile 1,90 in their offer and that's about the very edge to sacrificing oneself. IW know their business, especially in Bundesliga. You may call them a "reference bookie" who also uses margins... therefore obvioulsy no value in other bookie's offers that are left imo.

2. Stuttgart field their best eleven, haven't lost in last 5 matches in Rostock. Good reason to lay the guests: Rostock should break through that series in the worst possible conditions, if you like to believe in the unexpected.

3. Jari Litmanen most likely playing. Just imagine he's 10 yrs. younger and he possibly is in for a hattrick. Cheat your conscience a bit.

All good reasons to back Rostock! Need more?

[Highlander]

8) Best BET of this Round is of course..DORTMUND...
for several reasons*

first of all...Bielefeld is pretty much save..and they have a very big and a very important upcoming Cupgame against Bayern Munich in their mind..
and they can hurt Munich, like they did in the league :wink:

But there are are great roumors that Uwe Rappolder is leaving the club..and i think he will do it..he had done his (great) work in Bielefeld...so he is prepared for another challenge!

For tomorrow they will probably play without Detlev Dammeier...he is a "rock" and the guarantee for a solid Bielefeld Game..but he is more important for the game against Bayern!! So they face a fully motivated Borrussia Dortmund in a very fine form.with Koller and Rosicky back... :wink: I trust Dortmund to get the win for 8/10 High stake!!

Good Luck!! 8)

[Satyr]

Nice reasoning, Highlander.Sounds good.I think I'm gonna take BVB as well.
Cheers.

[Guster]

Well Highlander, I don't see anywhere official confirmation that Dammeier won't play. But I can easily imagine that you're right - Bielefeld will play on Wednesday against Bayern (German Cup semifinal) and that is a huge game for them, so I wouldn't be surprised if Rapolder would rest him (he is 36 years old).

I also agree that he is very important player for them - together with Rüdiger Kauf they form Bielefeld's defensive midfield, which is rock-solid.

Though I'm also quite convinced that Dortmund will win this one, I won't bet on them, because I don't see any value in currently available AH odds (miserable 1.72 AH 0:1 @Pointbet).

Koller (haven't played 4 weeks) and Rosicky (haven't played 2 weeks) are ready to play, but they might not start, due to their lack of match practice. Christoph Metzelder is questionable, so the 24-years old Ivory Coast international Guy Demel may deputise on the right back (Evanilson is in Brazil because of some private problems).

[Macedonia]

Dortmund home match statistic:
m w d l
13 5 4 4 16 : 14
A. Bielefeld away match statistic
m w d l
14 4 2 8 14 : 23
I think very hard game for predict..i give a chance for dortmund win...if they do they will go on top of the table and make chance for 5th place i see good motivation for homewin

[Misternando]

Ali Wrote:

1. Odds have dropped, I wouldn't back them below 1,95 either. IW stil has a a stabile 1,90 in their offer and that's about the very edge to sacrificing oneself. IW know their business, especially in Bundesliga. You may call them a "reference bookie" who also uses margins... therefore obvioulsy no value in other bookie's offers that are left imo

That's the only good reason of the 3 you gave Ali!

I'm going in!

[duhlev]

You thouths about not backing Stuttgart are corect.....but the reality is that Stuttgart is the better team and is in very good form indeed!
So I take the away win!

[Highlander]

Originally Posted by Satyr

Nice reasoning, Highlander.Sounds good.I think I'm gonna take BVB as well.
Cheers.

:wink: my girlfriend and her sister stays in Rijeka since yesterday on vacation in their holyday-house :arrow: she will bring LUCK-Greez :lol:

[Lakini]

I wouldnt want to back Stuttgart. They are too nervous and that can go easily go against them. Furthermore, both sides are playing exactly the same system today, and they can neutralize each other on the pitch easily.

I wouldnt want to say that Rostock wins, but I believe that its going to be an open game. Rostock has more to lose than Stuttgart in any case.

I can tell you one thing, today at around 17:20 many many people will moan and cry, cause this is round is supertricky and nothing is really sure.

I wouldnt be surprised if Rostock beats Stuttgart, if Hamburg gets points at Schalke, if Hannover beats Bayern, Nürnberg wins in Wolfsburg or other small surprises.

[TheAlchimist]

Hansa-Stuttgart is very tough match, because Hansa has improved in home games. Stuttgart is also in good form and will imo get at least a point but straight win I wouldn't take for odds under 2,00. Perhaps 2-2... 8)

Dortmund perhaps best home side this weekend but odds like 1,35 at expekt are a bad joke. This team fought against relegation some months ago...Odds about 1,55 then take them.

Schalke versus HSV is a tricky one. If Schalke would have Lincoln and Bordon available this would be a homewin for me but without them it could be close. HSV is without Barbarez and Bouhlarouz so no high ambitions for them "auf Schalke", but a draw is possible. Odds to low for Schalke even I think they will win.

Best bet for me seems Bremen-Hertha over 2,5 goals or "both teams to score". So much offense potential on the field,that a low scoring one seems not probable.

[kamei24]

Don't know about others, but I think Bayern and Wolfsburg are for me 2 sure wins.. Was thinking also on M'gladbach, but in the end decided to skip it..

After dissapointing game with Chelsea, but all in all good performance imo, I think Bayern wll not loose now, and they will immediatly show who's the boss in Bundesliga.. And if I'm not wrong, Bayern with full squad? So just can't see Hanover can stop angry Bayern after 'loss' against Chelsea..

[BetsCenter.com]

Hello
v
SC Freiburg v Bayer Leverkusen 2/2 @ 2,8 /Gamebookers/

Bayer Leverkusen after two earlier failures is in difficult situation, the
chance of playing in the European Cup are getting smaller.
Freiburg has got no chance to stay in the leauge, so matches like these
needs an victory even on guests stadium. The "Chemiests" really needs 3
point ahead. The basic defender Roque Junior returns to the squad, but there will be lack of Robson Ponte. The team have very high level of offensive skills, so the absense of Robson Ponte shoudn't enervate the squad so much.
The entertainers are impairmented because of two players, who were basics in the squad: defender Khizaneishvili (the match with Lever will be third next ahead where he's off the first squad) and offensive player Kruppke (second next match). Motivation and personality on the guests side.

Best Regards

[STARSPLASH]

Hansa Rostock – VfB Stuttgart
17. Hansa Rostock 28 5 8 15 25:54 23
3. VfB Stuttgart 28 16 6 6 51:31 54
VfB Stuttgart @ 1.90 Bets4all.com
There is a very attractive price for Stuttgart against Hansa Rostock. Hansa Rostock had a nice run in the Bundesliga till the last game in Nuernberg where they lost deserved 0-3 after a poor game. Stuttgart is currently in a great form – Stuttgart won the last five games in the Bundesliga in a row and they have still good chances to win the championship. The first leg Stuttgart won at home 4-0 against Rostock and I think today they will win again – Stuttgart is currently in a great form and normally a class or two classes better than the opponent today. I think you can try a bet for a nice 1.90 price – probably X2 would be the safety method.


Gladbach – Mainz 05
15. Borussia Monchengladbach 28 7 8 13 31:45 29
14. FSV Mainz 05 28 8 6 14 34:45 30
Gladbach @ 1.70 Bets4all.com
Gladbach is today under a great pressure – particularly their coach Advocaat. But Gladbach is playing at home a nice style of football and so I think they have today great chances to win against Mainz 05 – they have a record of 3-1-1 from the last five home games. Mainz lost their last two games in a row and on road they have terrible record of 1-3-10. They have from the last ten games on road a record of 0-1-9 – I think Gladbach will win against such a poor-away team like Mainz 05. Gladbach is under pressure and at home they playing good and forceful soccer – so I will bet on them today.

[Highlander]

:lol: BVB..straight forward...seems to be a high scoring ending*** :wink:

[juankaan]

Nice goal by Dortmund thanks to Koller's brilliant cross.

1-0

[Rydr]

Does anyone watch Bremen? Who is better team?